exploiting digital assets to extract greater performance ... · exploiting digital assets to...

Exploiting digital assets to extract greater performance & longer life

Mark Stevens, Group Leader

8th October 2019

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction

Opportunity presented by digital assets

Approach for developing a digital asset

Case study: industrial gas turbines

Summary


Extend lifetime

Reduce maintenance

Reduce environmental

impact

Increase revenue

Resilience to change

The opportunity presented by Digital Assets

Why?


What is a digital asset?

A digital representation of an asset, process or

system

Better understanding of future behaviour in

response to environment

What?

+

Asset state

Intelligence

+

Data

ModelsStatistics


What is a digital asset?

What?

Creating a digital asset


Managing change & risk

RISK

Enterprise Risk



RISK

Enterprise Risk

Essential to align assets to core

values



RISK

Enterprise Risk

Essential to align assets to core

values

Influencing data and processing needed for

operations


Creating a digital asset

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome

ChangeRisk


Managing uncertainty

Data informed model of asset evolution.

Might be finite element or physically based

Might include some material insights

Might be analytic based on data

Might be analytic based on judgement

It must be probabilistic, since:

Asset condition is uncertain

Evolution is uncertain

Future operation is uncertain

Measurements are uncertain

Validation

Prediction

Case study: applying digital assets to fleet of gas turbines


Background

High temperature loading

Large fleet of turbines

Fixed maintenance interval


Background

Fixed maintenance schedule = worst case

Inspection suggested blade life could be extended without risk of failure

Opportunity = a unit-specific condition based maintenance strategy

Run blades for longer and re-use blades that were replaced prematurely

Actual plant operation ≠ design assumptions


Applying the digital assets approach

15

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome


Understanding system and critical components

16

Critical components are blades

Intervention is replacement when they are worn…

…but optimum timing is uncertain

Impact of getting this wrong: wasteful vs risk failure

Where to start?


High temperature

Creep-fatigue interaction


Understand the properties of a single crystal blade to provide a rigorous foundation to

optimising the intervention strategy

17

Validate against test specimens



18

Creep rupture1

Linear elastic FEM

+ simple model

1 Dr Jon Douglas et al, ‘An Approach to Identify Bounding Damage Locations for Condition

Based Structural Integrity Assessments of Gas Turbine Components’, Proceedings of ASME

Turbo Expo 2019, GT2019-97804

Creep relaxation1

Linear elastic FEM +

simple model

Full constitutive model1

Validation


Monitor activity and environment

19

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome



20

T5

w

TM, s, ec?How can we relate

measurable quantities

to location of interest?

T2



21

Detailed CFD and FE analysis to

understand behaviour of hot gas

path

Validated against a fully-

instrumented unit



22

We can relate measurable

values to blade conditions

We can relate blade conditions to degradation

We can validate it

How to implement?

TM, s, ec

w

T5

T2


Create validated models

23

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome



Complex multi-physics analyses are expensive and

time consuming

Difficult to adapt to changes in condition

Reduced order models

Sufficiently accurate and…

…adaptable and fast to solve

Manage risk through uncertainty in probabilistic

analysisODE c1 T2

c2 T5

M1

M2

M3

HTC2,3

HTC1,2

HTC1,T2

HTC3,T5

w TM2

TM1

TM3



25

Measured

T, wROM

Blade

T, s, ec

ROMBlade

damage (life)



26

Measured

T, wROM

Blade

T, s, ec

ROMBlade

damage (life)

We can now quickly and reliably determine unit-specific blade

damage from engine monitoring data


Establish performance limits

27

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome


Establish performance limits

T130/19501 GP2 Disk

Creep Clock

88%

57%

36%

23%

15%9%

6%4%2%1%1%1%0%0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12

40

12

30

12

20

12

10

12

00

11

90

11

80

11

70

11

60

11

50

11

40

11

30

11

20

11

10

11

00

Tm (=0.44T5+0.56T1+620)

Cre

ep

Clo

ck

Ra

te (

%)

Relative Usage and Life Consumption

0%

20%

40%

1300

1280

1260

1240

1220

1200

1180

1160

1140

1120

1100

GP2 Disk Temp. (F)

Rela

tive F

racti

on

% Hours Onload% Relative Life Consumption at Temp.…calculate remaining life

For each engine…


Managing interventions

29

Understand

the system

Identify

interventions

& critical

components

Monitor

activity &

environment

Create

validated

models

Establish

performance

limits

Make

decisions

10110

10011

0101

?

Digital Twin

Surrogate for

direct monitoring

Transparency

Trusted

outcome


Managing interventions

Intervention

• Replacement

• Reinstatement

Timing

• Residual life…

• …not fixed number of hours

Benefits

• Longer life and smarter maintenance

• Streamlines purchasing, resourcing, supply chain...

Large cost benefit:

ROI in 2 years

5 x ROI in 5 years


Exploiting digital assets

We’ve considered a fleet of complex high value assets

Used understanding of system to evaluate what matters

Used operating history and predictive methods to determine unit-specific life

More efficient use of time, effort and materials

5 x ROI over 5 years, payback in 2 years

www.fnc.co.uk

Mark Stevens, Group Leader

Email: [email protected]

Thank you. Any questions?

exploiting digital assets to extract greater performance ... · exploiting digital assets to...

Documents