exploiting complexity abaci the partnership a complexity science-based approach to conflict analysis...

Exploiting Complexity

abaciabaci

The

Partnership

A Complexity Science-based Approach to Conflict Analysis and

Influence

Patrick BeautementA presentation to: 5th IMA International Conference on

Influence and Conflict

Date: 24 Apr 2012

© abaci 2012 Registered UK Business: OC316272 VAT No: 946 1122 39

www.abaci.net/library/2012_ima_beautement_cs-approach-to-analysis_v2.ppt

2© abaci 2012

Contents

01Another Approach – Why?

02What is Needed in Practice?

03A Suggested Approach

04Real-world Example - Syria

05Summary

Aim:To engage analysts and mathematicians in

the critique and strengthening of a 'soft' approach

3© abaci 2012

01 Utility of Academic Complexity in Practice?

• Principles of academic complexity include:

– self-organisation

– emergence

– connectivity

– interdependence

– feedback

– far from equilibrium

– space of possibilities

– co-evolution

– historicity & time

– path-dependence Mittleton-Kelly (2004)

Do not p

rovide practitio

ners with

real-w

orld disc

riminators,

but do p

rovid

e insig

hts on how everyday phenomena 'w

ork'

4© abaci 2012

01 Fuel Crisis, UK 2000 - 'Structures' and Tensions(Case Study p181)

Co

mp

on

ents

an

d S

tru

ctu

res

RiotMob

Danger!

Uns

tru

ctur

ed.

Sw

arm

Ad hocProtesters

'Terrorists'

Tra

nsie

nt s

truc

ture

sar

ise

from

sha

red

inte

nt -

'Rhi

zom

ic'

IndividualActivists

'Sages'

Uns

tru

ctur

ed.

Her

mits

/ M

aver

icks

'Institutionalised''Groupings

'Establishment' / Government

Sha

ped

by h

isto

ry.

Str

uctu

re e

mbe

dded

in s

tate

inst

itutio

ns

'Recognised''Groupings

'Enterprise'

Str

uctu

re s

hape

d by

pr

oces

s -

form

alor

gani

satio

nal t

empl

ate

s

OrganisedOpportunists

'Egalitarian'

Str

uctu

re s

hape

d by

even

ts -

ad

opts

iden

tifia

ble

lead

ers

- F

ranc

hise

PredictionHorizon

Way

s o

f In

flu

enci

ng

(Man

y 'm

od

es' a

vail

able

)

Change Issue: Need to engage protesters - force them to organise

Inhibitors Enablers

Gov't susceptible to top-down influences, eg: from media

Protestors unstructured, unpredictable

Public opinion fickle

Protests causing fuel shortages - national security risk - short timescales

Protesters susceptible bottom-up eg: encourage dissent - dissolution from within

Public likely to lose interest

People want to use cars – closely involved

6© abaci 2012

01 Another Approach – Why?

Andrew Mackay and Steve Tatham say in their book "Behavioural Conflict" (2011):

"If we seek to influence behaviour in order to determine more appropriate choices then we will have to radically change both our approach and our methodologies".

• NB: Other commanders have been asking for change, eg, Sir Sherard Cowper Coles in 2011 on ways-of-working:

"Everyone fell into the same trap: of substituting acquaintance for knowledge, activity for understanding, reporting for analysis, quantity of work for quality".

• Key questions for the analysis community include:

– what is the nature of the radical changes that need to be made – where are the mismatches and why? and

– which changes to approaches and methodologies are appropriate under which circumstances and what has/not worked and why? …

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01 USA JFCOM Comments on EBO

• Effects-based Operations tried (by exhaustive analysis in advance) to predict the future effects of interventions.

• Comd JFCOM in 2008 rejected EBO / ONA (operational network analysis) approaches because they:

– assume a level of predictability which is unachievable– cannot correctly anticipate reactions of 'complex systems' (e.g.

leadership, societies, political systems, etc)– call for an unattainable level of knowledge of opponents– are too prescriptive, focussed on 'facts' and over engineered– discount the social and human dimensions of conflict (eg:

passion, imagination, loyalty, willpower, variability, culture and power)

– promote centralisation and lead to micro-management from HQs

– are staff-led [ie, controlled by process-followers], not Command led [ie, hypothesis-led by active problem-solvers]

• And what of other models that are being used? …

01 Prof Michael Batty on Models - ECCS'09

"We do not have any idea how the people in our models will adapt to change and this is not new. The very fact [that] a generation ago we thought [that] we could treat cities [as if they are] in equilibrium is testament to the limits of our knowledge.

But I believe that what this is showing is that we need new forms of intelligence system to deal with the future where we will have many different models running in parallel, mediated by a context that seeks to 'inform' rather than 'predict'. The quest is to find the appropriate milieu in which to act this way."

Enough already!We all know that all models are wrong yet

that some are useful, and that …

Gödel's 'Incompleteness Theorem' sets the milieu in which models should be used …

So what's the issue now? There's a perceived mismatch between operators' imperatives

and analysts' models and products …

So, what is needed to overcome this?

10© abaci 2012

Contents





05Summary

Thesis - Approaches are Needed:

- which acknowledge the givens and realities revealed by

complexity science eg: that underlying complexity generates

features experienced as 'simplicities'.

- which are appropriate to conflict in dynamic situations

and

- which work with the possibilities and

opportunities of real-world change as experienced by

operational practitioners …

02 Differences between Experienced, Academic and Underlying Natural Complexity

Challenging

Predictable

Crisis

Routine

(p108) Practitioners' types of 'Experienced Complexity'

'Academic Complexity'

Wave propagation, hydrology,

dipoles, surface tension,

turbulence etc

Mismatch!

Dynamic interactions in underlying 'Natural

Complexity'(eg: sea-bed shape, solar radiation, water density, salinity, temperature,

organic chemicals, wing-form-profiles, human physique, thrill-seeking drives,

sex-appeal)

Deg

ree

of

'raw

' C

om

ple

xity

-wo

rth

ines

s

High

Low

Crises(Prediction Horizon

'near', timescale demanding)

'Typ

e' o

f C

on

text

Routine(Prediction Horizon

'far', timescale 'relaxed')

Challenging

Predictable

Viewing / Discovering 'Rational'

Exploring / EnactingOpen / Adaptive

Ways of Working /of Practice

Deep Water HorizonOil Rig - normal

activities

Deep Water HorizonOil Rig - after Blowout

eg, S

hock

Tra

nsiti

on

O

O O

Refugee Camp

Aid Agencies

Surfing

Supermarkets/ Logistics

02 Experienced Complexity in Practice

13© abaci 2012

02 Types of Dynamic Transitions

Shock transition - 'dislocation', eg insurgents attack the refugee camp

?

'Smooth' Transition - sudden change eg, new refugees arrive

- but know how to deal with itROUTINE

Mechanical, Simple, eg administering pay

PREDICTABLE

Complicated, but deducible, eg logistics supply to the

Camp

CHALLENGINGDynamic, novel and ever-

changing - but with discernable, emergent 'patterns', eg the

Refugee Camp

Unpredictable and apparently 'random', eg dealing with fires,

injuries, fleeing civilians

'CRISIS'

Incr

easi

ng

ly 'c

on

ven

tio

nal

ly i

ntr

acta

ble

'

Increasingly non-linear and dynamic

For a fuller list, see p124 of Complexity Demystified

14© abaci 2012

02 Stage on Which Conflict is Played Out

Intentions DestructionsTransitions

Aim:Cooperation

(Ambiguousconditions)

Tension('Posturing'/ standoff)

Influencethrough

'coercion'(to maintain

cohesion)

Compatiblerelationships

Feasible,agreed

'join action'

Aim: Reconciliation

(PoliticalDiplomacy)

Protest / Social Media

(No rules)

Strategic('Action at a

distance', ponderous decision-cycles)

Operational(Directed action, variable effect)

Tactical(Local action, quick tempo,

potentially global effect)

(Inclusive)Collaboration

(Permissive)Confrontation

(One-sided)Annihilation

(Non-permissive)Conflict

Aim:Dominance

(Rapidtransitions)

Chaos(Extreme

acts)

Controlthrough

'contracts'(to maintain

purpose)

Predictable

Challenging

Crises

Adapted from: Gen Sir Rupert Smith

Scope for adapted tactics

Scope for adapted

techniques

Scope for adapted tools

GAP: Need to develop

'maverick' thinking

GAP: Need to develop new

tactics / training

GAP: needs new thinking

GAP: Need new, more

appropriate approaches

Products expressed in practitioner

language

Need more appropriate

tactics / training

Need new complexity-

aware techniques

Need improved,

complexity-aware tools

Need improved 'gaming'

02 Practitioners' Contexts vs ‘Analysis’ Capabilities

PredictionHorizon

No GapsNo GapsNo GapsNo Gaps

Group 1: For Analysis of

the Past

Group 2: For Planning and

Control

Group 3: To Engage and

Influence

Group 4: Consider

Possible Futures

Typ

e o

f 'E

xper

ien

ced

Co

mp

lexi

ty' Crises

Routine

Challenge

Predictable

A No change B Adapt C New approaches D Transformation

Techniques: complexity-aware

Doctrine and concepts: transformational

Human-led analysis using open mindsets

and approaches - acknowledge givens and challenge

orthodoxies

Robust explorative leadership

Modelling: ontologies

adaptive at run-time

eg: System Dynamics

Context analysis: of ongoing dynamics

Be command-led

Employ novel approaches

Value abstract intelligence

16© abaci 2012

Past (Puzzles)Now

(Action,Influence)

Possible Futures (Mysteries)

POSSIBLE CAUSES: Things we know - or can know (facts or fact-like)

POSSIBLE EFFECTS: Things we could, in theory, know - or which are, as yet, 'unknowable'

(assumptions based upon the past)

02 Past Analysis to Future Prediction

The Event

Fact (known)

Evidence(discovered)Fact (undiscovered)

Evidence(undiscovered)

Suggests probability of

Implies

Provides

Significance to?

Hypotheses? Iterate and 'test':• Perspectives? Viewpoints?• Possibilities? Probabilities?• Indicators? Significance?• Temporal aspects? Influences? F

utu

re 'B

'


utu

re 'C

'


utu

re 'A

'

CO

MP

ET

E (

Iter

ativ

ely)

Time

Mappings - meaning of links? Must allow 'contradictions' to co-exist

-

Open mindsets- develop insights

PredictionHorizon

17© abaci 2012

Control-Admin (Puzzles)Control-Admin (Puzzles) Command-intelligence (Mysteries)Command-intelligence (Mysteries)

02 The Deployed Defence Enterprise

Events / Effects in The WorldEvents / Effects in The WorldAfter M. Chin / J. Clothier DSTO 1998

Dis

sem

inat

e:

Dis

sem

inat

e: V

KB

- C

4IS

TA

R S

ervi

ces

VK

B -

C4I

ST

AR

Ser

vice

s

ResponsibilitiesExecution Monitoring

Co-ordination

Control / DirectControl / Direct

Information/ Status

Tasking /Orders

CONTROLLER

• Deliberate plans and schedules• Op orders, directives, warnings• SoPs, rules, laydowns• Logistics, admin and personnel• Reporting, alerting, cueing• Coordinate ongoing missions

OperateOperate

Action/Tasks

Information ReportingMission prep

Conceive futuresConceive futuresSensemakeSensemake

Authorities'Ops' / ISR Team

"7 Questions"Dynamic IntentShape futures

Intelligence

IntelligenceCollate / Analyse

Collate / Analyse

• Mind Games with opponents• Competing alternative hypotheses• Espionage, agents, tradecraft• Deception / countermeasures• Cross-agency cooperation• Comprehensive approach with NGOs

COMMANDER

Per

ceiv

e:

Per

ceiv

e: V

KB

– H

uman

Jud

gem

ent

VK

B –

Hum

an J

udge

men

tCommandCommand

IntentIntent

CollectInformInform

"The Brain"(Context-driven)

"The NervousSystem"

(Process-driven)

18© abaci 2012

02 Analysis in Complex Operational Realities –Mismatch Assessment Cube

Group 1: For

Analysis of the Past

Group 2: For

Planning and

Control

Group 3: To

Engage and

Influence

Group 4: Consider Possible Futures

Crisis

Routine

Challenging

Predictable

Perc

ep

tion

of

Ph

en

om

en

a

Cont

ext Qua

litie

s

Puzzles

Mysteries

Height of Bar =Conflict analysis

techniques'Degree of Real-worldReadiness

Goodcapability

Volume of Cube = Space of Complex Operational

Realities thatPractitioners mustbe able to address

Minimalcapability

Mismatch!

19© abaci 2012

Contents





05Summary

Integrative …

Engage and influence phenomena anddrivers directly - 'Landscape of Change'

"Complexity Demystified – A Guide for Practitioners"

20© abaci 2012

03 What is Needed in Practice?

• An Approach which:

– accepts the givens and realities and complexity science insights and

– is open to the possibilities and opportunities of change and

– focuses on engaging directly with real-world phenomena and

– influences contexts, and their underlying drivers and dynamic transitions, purposefully and effectively as appropriate

• An Approach that mitigates the ops / analyst mismatch - where:

– Engaging and influencing = Shaping Context – Landscape of Change (p134)

– Reflecting on Real-world Practice = Factoring in modifiers and tensions - 'Trade-off space' (p145)

– Reflecting on, appreciating and questioning the Experienced Realities = Enacting and exploring - 'Symptom Sorting' (p158)

– Employing appropriate Capabilities: 'Complexity-worthiness' (p99)

• An Approach that has the necessary requisite variety and which fully acknowledges the richness of real-world contexts …

21© abaci 2012

Individuals, entities(Private)

Wider Environment(Natural)

'Silent majority'

(Consumers)

Intellectuals (Free-

thinkers, inc. Arts)

'Community'(Benevolent, charities)

Institutions (Public, law and order)

'Belief-systems'

Commerce(Enterprise, free market)

'Multi-Cultural' (Social, family)

03 Contexts - Communities of Practice

Dynamics, purpose, behaviours:• How they form, cohere, persist and transition – inter-dependencies• Organisational structures / forms – degrees of coupling / clamping, degrees of freedom / wiggle room• Types of power and control (p168)

'Dysfunctional' Groups /

IndividualsTerror-

ismOrganised

crime

Corr-uption

ABM modellers – NB 'contradictions'!

22© abaci 2012

03 Principles - Axioms of Complexity: appreciating the Drivers of Change

• 'Complexity' arises because, in some environment, there are components that interact at levels of time and scale resulting in the dynamic phenomena that practitioners experience - enablers:

– a suitable environment is one in which the phenomena can arise and be sustained - in the surfing example, the sea, the beach and surroundings

– the 'components' or entities have suitable attributes and properties that enable them to interact with each other in novel ways - in the example: objects in the sea, the water itself, the surfers and their equipment

– the interactions of the 'components' in the environment have 'purpose' - such as the contact between the surfer and the surfboard, the board with the sea and the surfers desire to compete, and

– that the dynamic (emergent) patterns generated from the interactions are persistent enough to be detectable as features - ie, phenomena appearing at different times, at different scales and in different modes (sound, light, force, signals). In the surfing example, these features include: waves, eddies and whirlpools, speech, human courage and so on.

23© abaci 2012

03 Principles - Ways of Influencing:Shaping the Conditions for Change

• Four main ways:– changing the environment: eg, 'seeding', so preferred phenomena are

more likely to come about – in the surfing example changing the shape of the sea bed or providing facilities for surfers

– changing the nature of top-down influences: eg, via orders, policy directives, direct interventions, incentives, rules and permissions – in the example, imposing environmental or health and safety rules

– changes in / manipulation of self-organisation / self-regulation (self-*) 'mechanisms': eg, through peer-to-peer social drivers - such as ethos, behavioural norms and the evolution of surfer group popularity;

– changes in the nature of bottom-up influences: e.g., via 'the people' who can think / act locally but cause effects with potentially broad impact. Note that certain phenomena are enablers for change at 'higher' levels and so have a bottom-up influence e.g., waves enable surfing which enables people to have fun – ie, 'cascades' of emergence

• Plus at least two others (p67):– influencing cyberspace: because of the role it plays in shaping human

behaviour – in the example, using social networking– 'doing nothing', active disengagement: or just 'letting things follow their

course'. Given that 'timeliness' is a key factor in perceptions someone who apparently 'does nothing, may in fact be playing a game with timescales over years or decades (as Machiavelli did in his political scheming).

24© abaci 2012

trends in resources available

accessibility / rights / politics /

boundaries

co-evolutionwith the

'geography'

possibilities shaped by conditions

degrees of involvement / engagement

adaptability / evolving natural / social dynamics

nature of motivations /

empowerment

pattern of life/ identities / critical mass

presence / absence of

components / agents

incentives / permissions /

rules

natureof indigenous components /

agents

enablers of interactions /

intentions

impacts of pre-existing phenomena

thresholdsclamps / enablers

/ interactions

tensions/ synergies - of individuals and

groups

extent of capabilities,

learning, degree of CW

Componen

ts

Proper

ties

Purpose

ful-

ness

Inte

ract

ions

Dynam

ic

Emer

gent

Phenom

ena

Enviro

nmen

t

(inc.

soci

al,

cyber

)

Driver

s of E

mer

gent F

eatu

res

in C

ontext

s

Appreci

atin

g the

Context

for D

oing

Changes in Dynamics of Doing

Ways of Influencing Em

ergence

Changes in

context (inc.

social, cyber) Changes in

Top-down

influences Changes

through Self-*

influencesChanges from

Bottom-up

influences (inc.

capabilities)

Shaping Conditions

for Doing

Doing

Changes in …

CW = Complexity-worthiness

25© abaci 2012

Contents





05Summary

26© abaci 2012

04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis - Context

• Fundamental givens and realities:– Geographical position in the Middle East. Arab Spring

• Overlaps – Zero-sum conflict:– For the streets, for hearts and minds, for international support

• Blockers / paralysers / underminers / vulnerabilities:– Mutual 'intransigence' / determination

– 'Insurgents', many ex-Syrian army, have copied C2 style - weakness

• Contradictions, disjoints – asymmetric opportunities:– Differences in kinetic power, agility and types of influence

• Enablers, gate keepers (intermediaries), energisers:– Roles of UN, Russia, China and Iran part of the wider environment

• Unknowns, unknowables, hypotheticals, intangibles:– The 'solution'? Hidden agendas of others. Will. Extent of resilience

27© abaci 2012

Diverse Communities of

Practice

Open confrontation on

the streets

Sense of part of wider move for

change

Arab Spring and Regional Unrest

Regime introduces

curfews

Citizen journalists vs

Regime deploys military / agents

Regime to stay in place – UN

Council at odds

Despite UN, Regime employs

explicit force

Towns barricaded,

refugees flee

Spontaneous protest spreads

People find ways past restrictions, capture weapons

Courage and group identity

grows

People take ownership of

streets

People support protests directly

and adapt

People's motivations

diverse

People inherently social, active and

capable

Componen

ts

Proper

ties

Purpose

ful-

ness

Inte

ract

ions

Dynam

ic

Emer

gent

Phenom

ena

Enviro

nmen

t

(inc.

soci

al,

cyber

)

Driver

s of E

mer

gent F

eatu

res

in C

ontext

s

Appreci

atin

g the

Context

for D

oing


Ways of Influencing Em

ergence

Changes in

context (inc.


Top-down

influences Changes

through Self-*


Bottom-up

influences (inc.

capabilities)

Shaping Conditions

for Doing

Doing

Conflict inSyria …

28© abaci 2012

04 Modifiers of Degrees of Freedom (DoF)

• Possible actions (everything you can think of)• Potential actions (ones that are theoretically do-able by actors)• Performable actions (ones you know how to do - expert power)• Permitted actions (within policy restraints - reward and punishment power)• Available actions (what's feasible, inc with other actors on-hand or on-call)• Achievable actions (eg, within time constraints)• Obligated actions (eg, rituals, rules – imposed by those with positional power)• Required actions (eg, demanded by circumstance, the context)• Value-driven actions (from ethos, beliefs etc)• Cultural and social norms (expected / acceptable behaviour)• Peer-pressure influenced actions (eg, fashions, desire to identify with groups)• Leadership (referent power: courage / risk / attitude to breaking constraints)

'Contractual' Modifiers: Largely top-down

Social / Cultural Modifiers: Largely self-*

p137. Also see list in Paul Feltovich's"We regulate to Coordinate" (IHMC)

29© abaci 2012


Practice

Regime introduces

curfews

Towns barricaded,

refugees flee


streets


and adapt



diverse





Council at odds


the streets


change



explicit force


grows


capable

Componen

ts

Proper

ties

Purpose

ful-

ness

Inte

ract

ions

Dynam

ic

Emer

gent

Phenom

ena

Enviro

nmen

t

(inc.

soci

al,

cyber

)


Changes in

context (inc.


Top-down

influences Changes

through Self-*


Bottom-up

influences (inc.

capabilities)

Conflict in Syria … Government DoF

Zone (c) UN's Obligated, expected, 'acceptable' actions

Zone (a) Actions theoretically available to Government

Zone (d) Actions collectively required /

available for Government to stay in Power

Zone (b) of jointly possible / available actions by Regime's

agents

1

2

3

6

4

5

30© abaci 2012

Componen

ts

Proper

ties

Purpose

ful-

ness

Inte

ract

ions

Dynam

ic

Emer

gent

Phenom

ena

Enviro

nmen

t

(inc.

soci

al,

cyber

)

Changes in

context (inc.


Top-down

influences Changes

through Self-*


Bottom-up

influences (inc.

capabilities)


Practice

Regime introduces

curfews

Towns barricaded,

refugees flee


streets


and adapt



diverse





Council at odds


the streets


change



explicit force


grows


capable

Zone (a) Protestors

theoretically available actions


Conflict in Syria … Protestors DoF

Zone (b2) Individually possible / available needed

actions

Zone (d) Socially 'acceptable'

community actions

Zone (c) Permitted, obligated actions (by

Government)

Zone (b1) Jointly possible / available

needed actions

1

2

7

35

4 6

For actual actions see Syria tracker crowdmap at:https://syriatracker.crowdmap.com/

https://syriatracker.crowdmap.com/

31© abaci 2012

04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis - Regime

• Influence challenges and opportunities - Regime:– changing the environment: by destroying districts,

blockading roads, restricting resources (fuel, water etc)– changing the nature of top-down influences (a

strength): via orders to the army and police, policy directives (changing the rules), direct political interventions

– changing peer-to-peer social drivers: through the Alawi tribe and Assad family; via protecting favoured businesses and through 'patronage' – limited outside these zones

– changing the nature of bottom-up influences: through intimidation, informers and disinformation

– influencing cyberspace: monitoring and restricting Internet access and mobile phone usage – bypassed by satellite dishes (Lebanon)

– 'doing nothing', active disengagement: 'ignoring' agreements with the UN and blaming 'foreign forces'.

32© abaci 2012

04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis – The People

• Influence challenges and opportunities - protestors:– changing the environment: taking to the streets in

'swarms', painting wall slogans – a weak area (supported by provisioning from outside Syria)

– changing the nature of top-down influences: via proxy through international pressure (though within own communities cultural / religious structures important)

– changes peer-to-peer social drivers: group, family, religious and ethnic 'norms' and influences a powerful vehicle for cohesion and coherence of collective action. Encourage defections from army.

– changes in the nature of bottom-up influences: support to radical action comes from the will and determination of highly motivated individuals

– influencing cyberspace: use of social networking, citizen journalists and externally provided technical resources

– 'doing nothing', active disengagement: not an option – a vulnerability, it's all or nothing.

34© abaci 2012

05 Summary – So What?

• Such an Approach is appropriate for complex operations because it uses structured discourse to reflect on the realities and conditions for practice and to work with change, such as:

– What is the nature of the current situation? What has caused the phenomena perceived to come about? What can be understood about this situation, how it 'works' the viewpoints, motivations, influences of others (go to Symptom Sorting).

– What is motivating 'us' to intervene in this complex situation, what is the problem / opportunity 'we' perceive? Why did 'we' feel it was a problem - what discomforted 'us' enough to trigger 'our' involvement? What are the implicit intentions? We are intervening in order to do what? (go to Strategies and Possibilities).

– Who is challenging the assumptions? What is the nature of the change 'we' are trying to bring about? What are the tensions and modifiers (go to Trade-off Space).

– What / who could be engaged with to shape and influence the phenomena, to change the underlying drivers? Given what is / could be known, would the proposed interventions make sense - how would 'we' know if they did? (Go to Landscape of Change).

35© abaci 2012

05 Summary – So What?

• The 'so what' for analysts is that:– this kind of approach and types of techniques could usefully

extend your portfolio into 'difficult' areas

– the approach exploits insights from complexity science which provides underpinning robustness to analysis

– the techniques are complementary to those currently in use

• The 'so what' for operators / OGDs / NGOs is that these techniques:

– use the everyday, operational, terminology of experienced complexity not the prescriptions of academic complexity

– make the most of expert judgement and experience

– are straightforward and 'light' in the need for data collection

– have already proven to be effective in real-world situations

• But: to what degree can / should ‘rigour’ be added …

36© abaci 2012

05 Some References• Ashby, W. R. Requisite variety and its implications for the control of complex systems. Cybernetica, 1:83-99. 1958.

• Beckers, R., 0. E. Holland, and J.-L. Deneubourg. From Local Actions to Global Tasks: Stigmergy and Collective Robotics. In Artificial Life IV, edited by R. Brooks and P. Maes, 181-189. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1994.

• Beautement, P. The Defence Enterprise is more than just a Supermarket Chain. RUSI Defence Systems. 2012. http://www.rusi.org/publications/defencesystems/ref:A4F74493435F97/

• Bradshaw, J M, Dutfield, S, Benoit, P, and Woolley, J D. KAoS: Toward an industrial-strength open agent architecture. 1997. In Software Agents, AAAI Press / MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, editor J M Bradshaw. Pages 375-418.

• Chambers, R. Revolutions in Development Enquiry. Earthscan Books. 2008.

• Cohen, J. and Sewart, I. The Collapse of Chaos. Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World. Penguin Books, London. 2008.

• Diamond, J. Collapse. Penguin Books. 2005.

• Hofstadter, Douglas R. Godel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid. p713. Penguin. ISBN 0-14-00.5579-7. 1980.

• Jennings, N R. An Agent-based Approach for Building Complex Software Systems. 2001. Communications of the ACM, 44:4, 35-41.

• Mathieson G. Complexity and Managing to Survive it. DSTL (2005). Instititute for the Study of Coherence and Emergence (I.S.C.E.): http://isce.edu/ISCE_Group_Site/web-content/ISCE_Events/Cork_2005/Papers/Mathieson.pdf

• Mattis, Gen. Effects-based Approaches - banned. http://www.futurefastforward.com/component/content/article/902-military--intelligence/608-usjfcom-commanders-guidance-for-effects-based-operations-by-james-n-mattis-latest-update-251108?tmpl=component&print=1&page=

• Morowitz, Harold J. The Emergence of Everything : How the World became Complex. Oxford University Press, 2002.

• Poussart, D. Complexity: An Overview of its Nature, Manifestations, and Links to Science & Technology Convergence, with Comments on its Relevance to Canadian Defence. Canadian DRDC. 2006.

• Prigogine, I. From Being to Becoming: Time and Complexity in the Physical Sciences. p214. Freeman. 1980.

• Ramalingam, B. and Jones, H. Exploring the science of complexity: Ideas and implications for development and humanitarian efforts. ODI Working Paper 285. Oct 2008.

• Smuts, J.C. Holism and Evolution. MacMillan 1926.

• Treverton, G. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. RAND. Cambridge, 2003.

• Wolfram, S. Cellular Automata as Models of Complexity. Physica 10D. 1984.

• Zander, R. S. The Art of Possibility. Penguin. 2007.

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Questions?

Aim:To engage analysts and mathematicians in

the critique and strengthening of a 'soft' approach

www.abaci.net/library/2012_ima_beautement_cs-approach-to-analysis_v2.ppt

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39© abaci 2012

09 The Command Dimension

• Command and control are, wrongly, treated as equivalent

What-ifs Love Your Kit Novel TTPsMission Rehearsal Established TTPs

(IncreasingRole / Tier)

Team

Role

Procedures

Drill and Practice

FO

LLO

WIN

G(C

ontr

ol)

Command

LEA

DIN

G

DIRECTING, STRUCTURING, ‘DEMANDING’, REFUTING(Sensemaking Problem-centric and explorative)

(Concerned with hypotheses, intelligence and possibilities)

RESPONDING, TASKING, COLLATING, REPORTING(Coordination Process-centric and repeatable)

(Concerned with data and facts)

40© abaci 2012

Con

sequ

ence

s in

Rea

l-Wor

ld T

erm

s

Exa

mpl

e C

aric

atur

es

A1: Effective practice

BI / 2: Directed practice

C1: Ill-informed volunteer

C2: Entrenched institution

A2: Inhibited practice

Watcher / 'lurker'

Interfering volunteer

'Arm-chair' volunteer

Ability to PCtW

Aspects of Real-world Complexity-worthiness

Can engage, influence and learn by doing

Can reason about change - has will

to act appropriately

Open to change - appreciates what

to sense

NB: Assume the natural complexity is a similar for all cases

Well-placed

Outside Intent provided.

'Dysfunctional'

Could do it, can't detect

what or when

Detached, indifferent

Aware, well meaning, but

inhibited

Aware, not interested in opportunity

'Loose-cannon'

capability - miss-aligned

Has visions, dreams about

change

Yes

Yes, possibly

inappropriate

Yes, but ill-informed

No

No, so ineffective

No

Yes, impulsively

No

Yes

No, 'empty-headed'

Yes, based on own doing

No, in 'world of their own'

Yes, but not how

No

No

Yes, hypotheticall

y

Yes

Yes, but forced to

No, so 'blind'

No

Yes

Yes, 'voyeur'

No

No

41© abaci 2012

Phenomena Structures Strategies Information InfluenceExample

'Type'

Nature of Context (Symptoms) Appropriate Iterative Ways-of-working

'Stable'Understandable

Tractable

Increasingly Hyper-

dimensionalStressing

Ambiguous

Crisis

ENACTING Imagine-Probe-

Compete Hypotheses-

Seed

Fleeting transient

opportunistic ('rhizomic' /

swarms)

Unordered, apparently random, no

recognisable relationships

Susceptible to bottom-up

influences - usually indirect

Possible futures /

potentially significant indicators - hypothesise

Challeng-ing

EXPLORING Engage-Perceive-

Adapt-Learn Influence

Shaped on-the-fly by events.

Identifiable leaders

(franchise)

Ever-changing novel

emergent patterns - only

coherent in retrospect

All ways of influencing are

potentially relevant

Equivocal indicators with many potential

meanings - judgement

'Predict-able'

DISCOVERING Sense-Analyse-Plan-Respond

Shaped by process and

formal organisational

'templates'

Complicated but deducible

varying in time, space and

mode

Susceptible to top-down

influences - via processes,

templates and assumptions

Probabilistic factors induct / hedge / deduct procedurally -

gap filling

'VIEWING' Sense-

Recognise-Act / React

(repeating the known)

Determined by history and imposed / embedded institutions / instructions

Simple, familiar phenomena, perceivable,

repeatable and self-evident

Change the rules /

constraints / structures and

procedures

Data are observable

facts - categorise

knowns

'Routine'

42© abaci 2012

02 Contexts - Influence / Attack Levels

Physical Vulnerabilities

Cyberspace Vulnerabilities

Cognitive Vulnerabilities

'Social‘ Vulnerabilities

Single Cascade

attack

Attack

Physical Vulnerabilities

Cyberspace Vulnerabilities

Cognitive Vulnerabilities

'Social‘ Vulnerabilities

Co-ordinated Cascade Attack

(With self-induced cascade)

Attacks

Attacks

Attacks

Self-induced cascade 'attack'

Perceived Attack

43© abaci 2012

03 Contexts – Reality of Cross-scale Interactions

• Human-machine 'symbiosis' (extend into cyberspace)

• Human society, structures and machines

• Socially intelligent beings who conceive futures

• Tribal, co-operative creatures

• Stereo-vision air-breathing creatures

• Fast 'pack' land animals

• Purposeful creatures

• 'Sensible', free-moving creatures

• Self-*, cell-based forms

• 'Stable' biological environment

• 'Stable' geo-chemical environment

• Large-scale to sub-nano-scale structures and forces

All are,potentially,significantactorsin Real-worldComplexRealities

44© abaci 2012

Some Command words to consider …• Abduction, Analyse, Assumptions• Act, Agility, Adaptation, Authority,

Authorisation, Appropriate• Available, Achievable, Accessible• Attractor, Chaotic• Blockers, Boundaries, Constraints• Categorise, Classify• Coherence, Cohesion, Coupling,

Competing, Collaborating, Conflicting• Dialectic, Deducible, deduction• Discovery, Engage, Enacting, Enablers • Emergence, Equivocality, Evidence• Facts• Federation, Flocking, Franchise• Flexibility, Fleeting• Form, Formal, Function• Hypotheses, Hedge, History• Innovative• Independent, Interdependant• Induction, Indicator, Identifiable • Influence• Imprecise, Improbable, Impossible,

Indifferent, Inexplicable • Irrelevant, Inaccurate, Inconsistent,

Incorrect, Indirect

• Leadership, Judgement• Modifiers, Novelties• Openness, Organisation, Obligation• Patterns, Phenomena• Processes, Procedures• Plan, Practice, Purpose, Power• Potential, Perceive, Probe• Random, Repeatable, Realisable, Range• Reflection, Responsibility• Responsiveness, Robustness, Resilience• Rhizomic• Rules, Schema• Service, System (of systems)• Respond, Shape, Sense• Significance, Strange, Surprise• Structure, Swarming• Susceptibility• Templates, Trade-offs• Transience, Tensions• Unanticipated, Unbelievable, Uncertain,

Unexpected, Unlikely, Unknown, Unfamiliar, Unknowable, Unpredictable, Unrecognisable

• Unordered• Vague, Virtual, Variation

45© abaci 2012

What the first 3 runs produced

Project manager's corrections

What the funding approved

Analysis outputs that the military got

The Real World to be modelled

How the data captured it

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