experts workshop on climate change adaptation indicators eea, copenhagen, 3 july 2009 sebi 2010...

Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation IndicatorsEEA, Copenhagen, 3 July 2009

SEBI 2010 Working Group on climate change impacts on biodiversity indicators

Dominique Richard European Topic Centre on Biological Diversity


Composition of the group

• 22 experts from 17 European countries as full members of the group

• 15 correspondents to the group• Chaired by Snorri Baldursson, Icelandic Institute of

natural History• Coordinated by D. Richard, ETC/BD

• 3 meetings between Feb. 2008 and June 2009


Mandate of the Expert group

To review existing indicators on climate change and biodiversity from various sources

To review biodiversity indicators proposed by the SEBI 2010 process from a point of view of interlinkages, to help improve the indicator on climate change impacts on biodiversity.

To propose an indicator on the impact on climate change on model components of biodiversity

To help ensure complementarity with the EEA work on the 2008 climate change impacts report, and complementarity with other related work on biodiversity and climate change


So far, the only available indicators on impact of climate change on biodiversity:


Decision from the group

• Two terrestrial indicators were considered as highly relevant:

• An indicator on Climate change impact on bird populations• An indicator on alpine plant species • (In addition an indicator on Butterfly populations was to be considered)

• In lack of marine expert in group, no marine indicator could be agreed upon

• Several gaps were identified, such as an indicator on freshwater species, on invasive species, on policy relevant habitat-types.


Bird Indicator (CII = Climatic Impact Indicator)

The indicator is based on a combination of:

• observed population trends monitored from 122 common bird species in 20 European countries over 26 years,

• projected potential shrinkage, or expansion, of range size for each of these species at the end of this century (~2070-2099), derived from climatic envelope models. The ensemble in this case is the average climate envelope forecast based on six differing future scenarios.



.

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Po

pu

latio

n in

de

x (1

98

0=

10

0) -14% CommonForest (28

species)

-15% All common (124 species)

-43% Common Farmland (33 species)

PECBMS population trends e.g. European Wild Bird Indicator 2008



.

Serin Serinus serinus

Present simulated range

~1961-1990

Future ‘potential’ range under a modelled climatic change scenario: HadCM3 B2 for ~2070-2099


Bird Indicator (CII)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Inde

x of

clim

atic

impa

cts

on b

ird p

opul

atio

ns Increasing climatic impact on bird populations

Decreasing climatic impact on bird populations

The CII shows conformity between observed population trends and projections of how each species’ population should respond to climatic warming

The CII increases when population trends go in the direction predicted by the models

The CII decreases when population trends go in the opposite direction predicted by the models


Bird Indicator

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Wei

ghte

d po

pula

tion

inde

x

(A) Weighted population trend of species predicted to gain range in response to climatic change (30 species)

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Wei

ghte

d po

pula

tion

inde

x

(B) Weighted population trend of species predicted to lose range in response to climatic change (92 species)

The number of bird species observed to be negatively impacted by climatic change is three times larger than those observed to be positively affected by climate warming in this set of widespread European land birds.


Bird Indicator

Year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Ind

ex o

f cl

imat

e ch

ang

e im

pac

ts o

n b

ird

po

pu

lati

on

s

50

60

70

80

90

100

Adjusted index valueUnadjusted index value

120

140

160Ajustment of the CII for the confounding effects of habitat, migratory behaviour & body mass on the trends – but it is basically unchanged


Alpine Plant Indicator

• Within the GLORIA project started in 2001, about 2000 plant are monitored across all European mountains, according to common protocols. Plots have also been set up in the Andes and the Appalachian mountains

• The second collection of data took place during the summer 2008

• University of Vienna was asked to consider the potential indicators to be derived from this data set

Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation IndicatorsEEA, Copenhagen, 3 July 2009 montane

treeline

alpine

nival

1000 m

2000 m

3000 m

Temperaturelaspe rate:

on average ca.0.65 °C / 100 m

+ 7°C

+ 0,5°C

- 6°C

Warming of

3°C ~ 460m

5°C ~ 770m

Warming-induced range shifts

Introduction: vertical vegetation zones / shifting species ranges


Altitudinal rank classes of species

5 alpine centred, ranging montane-alpine 6 alpine centred, ranging treeline-alpine7 alpine centred, never below8 subnival centred, ranging alpine-nival

GLORIA Master SiteSchrankogel, Tyrol

alpine-nival ecotone

Hypothetic indicator modelCase study Schrankogel /Tyrol

362 plots of 1m²1994 / 2004


Alpine Plant indicator

Further exploration on a European-wide indicator based on results from last monitoring survey is on going

Results expected in October 2009


New indicator proposed for consideration: Butterfly Community Temperature Index (CTI)

Makes use of :

• data on butterfly populations from existing monitoring in Finland, UK, NL, Catalonia (data from other countries soon available)

• Climatic enveloppes resulting from ALARM project

For each butterfly species, a Species Temperature Index is calculated (STI) as representing the long-term average temperature experienced by individuals of that species over its range.


New indicator proposed for consideration: Butterfly Community Temperature Index (CTI)

• Average of each individual’s STI on a transect

• A high CTI reflects a large proportion of warm species with a high STI, i.e. more high temperature dwelling species.

• A rising CTI means • warm species are

increasing and/or • cool species declining

8,2

8,4

8,6

8,8

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Com

mun

ity

Tem

pera

ture

Inde

x (o C

)

Weighted CTI for Finland, UK,NL and Catalunya


No Indicators on Adaptation to CC!

• However at the last meeting of the expert group, a presentation by Rainer Dröschmeister, BfN Germany on:

Biodiversity indicators for the German national adaptation


No Indicators on Adaptation to CC!

• German national adaptation strategy to climate change• Running project• Financed by German Environment Agency; Contract partner: Bosch &

Partner)• Goal: development of

• Conception for indicator system• First draft for indicator selection/set• Set should cover all 14 thematic sections of strategy: from health

security and economics to environment and biodiversity• Federal Agency for Nature Conservation is involved in indicator

development for biodiversity and related topics (like land-use, coastal management)


Development of indicator set

Parameter Thematic aspects „Field“ of indication

Thematic section of the strategy

Examples(Draft)

BiodiversityChange in species ranges

Distribution shifts to the north and higher altitudes

Range shifts of non-migratory butterfly species

Occurence of southern / mediterranean bird species

So far, more than 100 parameters identified!!


What’s next?

The mandate of the SEBI expert group on Climate change impact indicator has been fullfilled

The Butterfly indicator and hopefully the European Alpine plant indicator will be presented to the SEBI Coordination Team meeting in October, for endorsement

Informal contacts to be maintained with members of the group, for instance consultation for comments on specific documents/ issues

Decision for developing other types of SEBI indicators to be taken after the political agreement on the post 2010 targets

Likely that a SEBI adaptation indicator to be developed in the future. Reactivation of the group? Preliminary work to start with ETC/CC?


Possible lessons to learn from the BRANCH project?

• Biodiversity Requires Adaptation in North West Europe under a CHanging climate

• (BRANCH) was a three year (2004-2007) INTERREG IIIB project aiming to promote the importance of adapting to climate change using spatial planning systems.

One of the components:

• Assessment of the vulnerability of terrestrial and coastal habitats and• species in Europe to climate change• (Berry, P.M., Jones, A.P., Nicholls, R.J. and Vos, C.C. (eds.))



Combination of two approaches:

• The approach developed by the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford UK focussing on shifting regions with suitable climate, links climate change to dynamic species ranges in both terrestrial and coastal systems. However, this approach does not capture the processes linking species persistence and landscape conditions.

• For terrestrial systems, the second approach, by Alterra Wageningen, focuses on sustainable conditions for ecological networks, links species ecology to landscape conditions and spatial planning. This second approach is not directly linked to climate change but rather looks at how species can currently move across the landscape



• 386 species included in the analysis (Plants, mammals, birds, Reptiles, Amphibians)

• Vulnerability:• The vulnerability of species is a function of their sensitivity to climate

change and their adaptation potential, in this case measured by new suitable climate space, which is assumed either to not be available due to such factors as dispersal constraints and lack of suitable habitat (VA) or to be fully colonised (VB).


Thank you for your attention!

To know more: http://biodiversity-chm.eea.europa.eu/information/indicator/F1090245995/fol471291/working-group-2-climate-change-and-biodiversity

http://biodiversity-chm.eea.europa.eu/information/indicator/F1090245995/fol471291/working-group-2-climate-change-and-biodiversity

http://biodiversity-chm.eea.europa.eu/information/indicator/F1090245995/fol471291/working-group-2-climate-change-and-biodiversity

experts workshop on climate change adaptation indicators eea, copenhagen, 3 july 2009 sebi 2010...

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