expert system in reservoir release strategies
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PrecipitationEvaporation
Reservoir
Overflow
Reservoir wall
Controlled
releasesSeapage through
reservoir floor
Influx via river
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Optimal volume profile
(Average years)
Observed volume profile
(Particular non-average year)Projected volume profile
(Particular non-average year)
Best possible target volume
Minimal discrepancy
between Vriand Wi
Best target
Wi1
Vi1rVri
Reservoircontents
0 1 2 . . . . i1 i . . . . . n1
Release periods
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1. Average influx profile2. Average evaporation profile
3. Upper and lower user profiles
4. Reservoir parameters
File storage
Process
User input
Process
Decision
Decision
Yes
Yes
Output
Output
No
No
Output
Determine optimal averaged release
strategies for various risk reserve
factors and store on disk.
1. Current date
2. Date of next adjustment3. Current reservoir content
4. Risk measures
Calculate best
projected constant
release strategy B ri.
Best projected
release strategy B ri.
Is B riwithin the limits as
defined by upper and loweruser profile values
Qiand qi, i1,2,..., n?
Is B rigreater than the
upper limit defined by the
user profile values
Qi, i1,2,..., n?
Smallest possible release as
determined by the lower-profile
values. qi, i1,2,..., n
Largest possible release as determined
by the upper profile values.
Qi, i1,2,..., n
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2 4 6 8 10
Volume (m3millions)
20
40
60
80
Ex
posedsurfacearea(hectares)
A8.00197 V14.0295
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0% Reserve
20% Reserve
40% Reserve
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Time (weeks)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Vol
umeprofile(m3m
illions)
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
524946434037
343128252219
161310741
Time (weeks)
Release
quantity(m3m
illions)
0% Reserve
20% Reserve
40% Reserve
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20% Reserve
0% Reserve
Actual
40% Reserve
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Time (weeks)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Volumeprofile(m3m
illions)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Releasequantity(m3m
illions)
0% Reserve
20% Reserve
40% Reserve
Actual
4945
4137
3329
2521
1713
951
Time (weeks)
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