expert system in reservoir release strategies

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  • 8/12/2019 Expert System in Reservoir Release Strategies

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    PrecipitationEvaporation

    Reservoir

    Overflow

    Reservoir wall

    Controlled

    releasesSeapage through

    reservoir floor

    Influx via river

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    Optimal volume profile

    (Average years)

    Observed volume profile

    (Particular non-average year)Projected volume profile

    (Particular non-average year)

    Best possible target volume

    Minimal discrepancy

    between Vriand Wi

    Best target

    Wi1

    Vi1rVri

    Reservoircontents

    0 1 2 . . . . i1 i . . . . . n1

    Release periods

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    1. Average influx profile2. Average evaporation profile

    3. Upper and lower user profiles

    4. Reservoir parameters

    File storage

    Process

    User input

    Process

    Decision

    Decision

    Yes

    Yes

    Output

    Output

    No

    No

    Output

    Determine optimal averaged release

    strategies for various risk reserve

    factors and store on disk.

    1. Current date

    2. Date of next adjustment3. Current reservoir content

    4. Risk measures

    Calculate best

    projected constant

    release strategy B ri.

    Best projected

    release strategy B ri.

    Is B riwithin the limits as

    defined by upper and loweruser profile values

    Qiand qi, i1,2,..., n?

    Is B rigreater than the

    upper limit defined by the

    user profile values

    Qi, i1,2,..., n?

    Smallest possible release as

    determined by the lower-profile

    values. qi, i1,2,..., n

    Largest possible release as determined

    by the upper profile values.

    Qi, i1,2,..., n

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    2 4 6 8 10

    Volume (m3millions)

    20

    40

    60

    80

    Ex

    posedsurfacearea(hectares)

    A8.00197 V14.0295

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    0% Reserve

    20% Reserve

    40% Reserve

    1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

    Time (weeks)

    0.00

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    Vol

    umeprofile(m3m

    illions)

    0.000

    0.050

    0.100

    0.150

    0.200

    0.250

    0.300

    524946434037

    343128252219

    161310741

    Time (weeks)

    Release

    quantity(m3m

    illions)

    0% Reserve

    20% Reserve

    40% Reserve

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    20% Reserve

    0% Reserve

    Actual

    40% Reserve

    1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

    Time (weeks)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Volumeprofile(m3m

    illions)

    0.00

    0.05

    0.10

    0.15

    0.20

    0.25

    0.30

    Releasequantity(m3m

    illions)

    0% Reserve

    20% Reserve

    40% Reserve

    Actual

    4945

    4137

    3329

    2521

    1713

    951

    Time (weeks)

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