expectations bulletin pack april 13 (1).pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 expectations bulletin pack April 13 (1).pdf
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ConsumerexpectationsInflation & unemploymentexpectation chart pack.
April 2013
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Inflation expectations trending around 2%yr
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Apr-97 Apr-01 Apr-05 Apr-09 Apr-13
% ann% ann
trend median
2
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Carbon price boost small & temporary
-1
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
Apr-98 Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13
% ann% annCPI
professionals trend
consumers trend
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute
Spike higher
pre GST
introduction
A real
inflation spike
Carbon price
boost very
small
3
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Less households than usual expecting price rises
-1
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Apr-98 Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13
% ann%CPI (rhs)
net balance (lhs)*
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute
average since
1995
*% expecting prices to rise
minus % expecting prices to fall
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Labour market concerns, the trend has peaked
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Apr-88 Apr-93 Apr-98 Apr-03 Apr-08 Apr-13
indexindex
unemployment expectations
unemployment expectations trend
Sources: Westpac-MI
unemployment
expected to rise
unemployment
expected to fall
peak,
Feb 09
5
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unemployment can still rise in the near term
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Apr-88 Apr-93 Apr-98 Apr-03 Apr-08 Apr-13
indexannual change in unemployment rate smoothed (lhs)
unemployment expectations trend (rhs)
bps
Sources: Westpac-MI
unemployment
rising
unemployment
falling
6
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Unemploy. expect map lack of real jobs strength
-150
-100
-50
0
50100
150
200
250-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Apr-95 Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
bps tty
unemploy. expectations (lhs leading 4mths)
change in employ/pop ratio (rhs)
% long run average Sources: Westpac-MI, ABS
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Unemp. exp. improving in a trend sense ...
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0-30
-20
-10
010
20
30
40
50
Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
% 3mth
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2mths)
trend full-time employ (rhs)
full-time employ(rhs)
% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS*trend represented as deviation from 10 year average
8
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...suggesting the jobs market may be firming.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
% 3mth% deviation
unemployment expectations trend* (lhsleading 2mths)trend total employment (rhs)
total employment (rhs)
Sources: Westpac-MI, ABS* represented as deviation from full history average
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Unemployment expect. track hours worked...
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
Apr-95 Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
% yr
unemploy. expectations (lhs leading 4mths)
hours worked %yr (rhs)
% long run average Sources: Westpac-MI, ABS
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...pointing to further near-term weakness.
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5-50
-40
-30
-20
-100
10
20
3040
50
Apr-95 Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
% 3mth
unemploy. expectations* (lhs leading 1mth)trend hours worked (rhs)
% long run average Sources: Westpac-MI, ABS
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Unemployed more optimistic
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
working
unemploy/retired/not working
Sources: Westpac-MI
Long run average = 100
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Manager/prof now the least optimistic
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
manager/prof
labourer/operator
paraprof/trades
sales/clerical
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
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Expectations now similar by educational level
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindexPrimary Tertiary
Secondary Trade
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
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Slight gap between males & females now gone
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
Male Female
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
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Those without kids a touch more pessimistic
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
Live with children
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No gap between home ownership groups
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
Tenant
Mortgagor
Owned
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expect by household type LR ave = 100
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The rest is better than the south east
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
Sydney
Melbourne
Remaining cities
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by state LR ave = 100
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Notable turnaround in mining states
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
60
7080
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
NSW WA
Vic Qld
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by state LR ave = 100
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Country dwellers more positive: rain effect?
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-00 Apr-03 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-12
indexindex
Urban
Rural
Sources: Westpac-MI
Unemployment expectations by state LR ave = 100
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As job worries fade, the pressure on rates eases
80
100
120
140
160
180
-500
-400
-300
-200
-1000
100
200
300
Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13
Index invert.
annual change in RBA cash rate (lhs)
forecasts
unemployment expectations trend (rhs)
bps
Source: Westpac-MI
When unemployment expectations improve, the
RBA tightens monetary policy
When unemployment
expectation deteriorate, the
RBA eases monetary policy
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as does the pace of change in expectations.
-48
-32
-16
016
32
48
64
80-500
-400
-300
-200
-1000
100
200
300
Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13
%yr
annual change in RBA cash rate (lhs)
forecasts
change in expectations (rhs)
bps
Source: Westpac-MI
When unemployment expectations
improve, the RBA tightens monetary policy
When unemployment
expectation deteriorate, the
RBA eases monetary policy
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