existing conditions & trends

NCC@2050 Scenario Planning

Existing Conditions & Trends A foundational building block to any scenario planning process is an assessment of existing conditions and trends. This document illustrates a current snapshot of conditions in the County related to population, economy, land use and environment, and equity/social justice. This assessment was fundamental in creating and evaluating future growth scenarios as part of the NCC@2050 planning process. Several highlights include:

• Population is projected to grow only slightly, and employment is projected to decline slightly.

• Most of the industry sectors with high numbers of jobs in New Castle County have relatively high median wages, but most of them also require high levels of education. Thirty-seven percent of the current population in New Castle County has a bachelor’s degree or higher.

• Job attractors are located primarily in the northern part of the county, but recent housing growth has occurred largely in the southern part of the county, leading to a worsening housing/jobs mismatch.

• Infrastructure of all types is aging and will need investment to maintain its quality.

• Fifty-three percent of current housing units are one-unit single family houses and 30% of households are cost-burdened.

• Just over half of households within the County currently have easy and safe access to parks and open space (one mile or less with a low level of traffic stress).

• More than half of the County’s impervious surface areas are made up of parking lots.

• The vast majority of all travel happens by private car.

• While trending in a positive direction since 1990, there are still disparities in home ownership and unemployment rates between whites and non-whites in New Castle County.

Population and Jobs

Population and employment projections tell us how many people and jobs can be expected within a long-range planning horizon, typically 20-30 years. NCC@2050 will help guide growth and preservation for the next 30 years, to the year 2050. According to the Delaware Population Consortium, population in New Castle County has increased since 1990, but is projected to stay relatively flat, and employment is projected to decrease slightly between 2020 and 2050. Employment has stayed flat since 1990 and is projected to decrease by about 10,000 jobs by 2050.

Source: Delaware Population Consortium, 2019

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Economy and Housing In terms of education, the highest percentage of people in New Castle County have a bachelor’s degree or higher, but a significant portion has only a high school diploma. In New Castle County, 91.6% of the workforce has at least a high school diploma, compared to 90.3% in Delaware and 88% in the United States. Thirty seven percent of the workforce has a post-secondary degree (bachelor’s degree or higher) in New Castle County, compared to 33.2% in Delaware and 33.1% in the United States.

Jobs in New Castle County are concentrated in leisure & hospitality, wholesale & retail trade, FIRE, business services, and health and education. New Castle County falls in the 99th percentile for percentage jobs in the FIRE sector among metro counties in the nation. Corporate and management sector is also very high. Top employers in the County include: Christiana Care (12,181), JP Morgan Chase (11,000), Bank of America (6400), University of Delaware (4,500), and Nemours (3,795). Forty-one of the top 50 employers in the State of Delaware are in New Castle County. Industry diversity lower than that of other large metros in the region (based on Moody’s data).

Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2019

Source: WILMAPCO jobs by industry-2020 estimates

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Most of the industry sectors with high numbers of jobs in New Castle County have relatively high median wages, but most of them also require high levels of education. What does this mean for the residents who do not have a college degree? How can we develop an economy that meets everyone’s needs? How do we deal with emerging economic trends, such as a gig economy?

The optimal jobs/housing ratio is 1.6 jobs per housing unit. Currently, the county is over-balanced towards housing with 1.45 jobs/household, but this varies significantly in different parts of the county. The localized jobs/housing mismatch contributes to increased traffic.

A draft objective of NCC@2050 is to increase the

variety and range of price-points of safe, quality

housing in diverse locations. In New Castle County,

more than half of the housing units are one-unit

detached houses, and 29% of households have costs

that are higher than what is considered affordable.

With changing demographics, household sizes are

expected to continue to fall, and that changes

preferences for housing types.

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Healthcare Support

Transportation & Material Moving

Educational Instruction & Library

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Business & Financial Operations

Computer & Mathematical

Annual Median Wages

Sources: LMI Delaware Works, 2019-filtered for New Castle County https://lmi.delawareworks.com/Content/Information/OES.php; Delaware Wages 2019 Report

53%

21%

10%

14%

2%Housing Units by Type

1 unit detatched

1 unit attached

2 - 9 units

10 or more units

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 – 2019 American Community Survey

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Approximately 30% of households in New Castle County

are considered “cost burdened”. This means that they

spend more than 30% of their income on housing related

costs.

An increase in the diversity of housing options would

result in more variety in housing costs, housing sizes,

and housing densities. That variety makes it easier for

people to match their housing needs (in terms of cost,

size, and location) to what is available.

Land Use/Environment As of 2017, approximately 41% of New Castle County’s land area was developed, and approximately half of the total county land area (51%) was made up of resource lands including agriculture lands, forest lands or wetlands. The remaining lands (8%) can be categorized as “other”. There are about 74,700 acres of protected lands in New Castle County, which means that the County is about 27.4% protected. A draft objective of NCC@2050 is to preserve 30% of the County’s land for open space in the next 30 years.

Protected Lands include parkland, agricultural easements, private open space, and private conservation easements. In order to reach the goal of 30% of the County being protected, the County would need to preserve approximately 7,000 more acres.

69%

16%

13%

2%

Housing Cost Burden, 2019

Cost Burden <=30%

Cost Burden >30% to<=50%

Cost Burden >50%

Cost Burden notavailable

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 – 2019 American Community Survey

Source: State of Delaware 2017 Land Use/Land Cover dataset

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The remaining lands, or “What’s Left?”, can be defined as areas of the county that are currently undeveloped and may be further subdivided into residential development. This land is not already developed nor has any protections from development due to such things as preservation easements or important natural resources, steep slopes, etc. This map does not reflect development potential for non-residential uses, nor does it recognize infill or redevelopment opportunity areas.

Throughout much of New Castle County’s history, growth and development have been focused in the Northern portion of the County. Since 2000, this trend has changed, with an increasing number of new housing units being developed in Southern New Castle County. Many of the newer developments in Southern New Castle County consist of single-family homes on larger lots. Between 2002 and 2018, more than 46% of all single-family detached dwellings in the county were constructed south of the C&D Canal. Most of this development was focused in and around Middletown with emphasis on suburban development in previously rural areas. Southern New Castle County’s population (including incorporated areas) increased from 19,000 (4% of countywide population) in 1990 to 55,000 (10% of countywide population) in 2016. This high level of residential growth has begun to change rural communities and the character of the areas south of the C&D Canal.

Sparse

Dense

DU per acre

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A draft objective of NCC@2050 is to improve surface water quality and reduce runoff from developed lands. Approximately 15% of the land area in New Castle County can be classified as impervious; defined as a hard surface area that either prevents or retards the entry of water into the soil mantle as under natural conditions prior to development. More than half (53%) of the total impervious surfaces in New Castle County are made up of parking lots, with the remaining 47% are buildings and roads. High parking requirements can increase the cost of housing, make it difficult for businesses to adapt to changing conditions, reduce redevelopment and infill activity, reduce walkability, and increase many different environmental impacts. Increasing the percentage of residents that have access to recreation and open spaces without a car is a draft objective of NCC@2050. Access to parks and open space is an important part of overall community health and wellness. New Castle County has many parks that are available to the public. Development patterns and the transportation network can impact a community’s ability to safely and easily access parks and open space. Based on an analysis developed by the Delaware Department of Transportation, approximately 55% of households within the County currently have easy and safe access to parks and open space (one mile or less with a low level of traffic stress). Approximately 75% of housing units within New Castle County are located within one mile of parks and open space. A portion of these households do not have safe access to these parks and open spaces (higher level of traffic stress).

Source: Delaware Department of Transportation, 2021

Source: State of Delaware 2017 Land Use/Land Cover dataset, Urban 3

Analysis

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During the comprehensive planning process the public voiced support for combatting climate change. One effective method is through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately one-third of carbon dioxide emissions are the result of automobiles.

Equity/Social Justice Equity is an overarching issue in New Castle County and beyond. It is also complex and extends well beyond the ability of the comprehensive plan to fully address. Nonetheless, the comprehensive plan can be part of achieving more equitable communities. Race is one way of looking at equity. Achieving equity also involves evaluating age, income, disability access, and others. The indicators explored have a relationship with equity. There are several metrics illustrated that help shape a picture of how:

• population is growing more diverse, with the percentage of people identifying as “white only” decreasing since 1990.

• trends for the indicators shown, such as unemployment/employment and home ownership seem to be trending in the right direction in terms of equity

• there are still disparities in home ownership and unemployment rates between whites and non-whites

Continued tracking of data on sub populations is a strategy that can help toward improving equity.

Source: IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org

Source: IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org Source: IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org

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