executive summary - mobile messaging futures 2012 edition

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Presentation Plan

Introduction1

SMS2

OTT Messaging Services3

MMS4

Mobile E-mail 5

Mobile IM 6


Introduction (1/2)

Source: Portio Research Ltd.

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

4,655.8 5,341.4 5,977.8 6,485.5 6,939.1 7,339.6 7,695.8 8,003.1

Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide

Year

Mo

bile

Su

bsc

rib

ers

(In

Mill

ion

)

Mobile Subscribers Break-out – Regional (2011)Mobile Subscribers Break-out – Regional (2011)

At end-2011, worldwide mobile subscribers stood at nearly 6 billion. This subscriber base is now projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6 percent between 2011 and 2016, and is expected to cross 8 billion by end-2016.

Asia Pacific’s subscribers constituted 50.7 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2011, while the second largest contributor was Europe with 18.3 percent

The emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and Africa and Middle East, with CAGRs of more than 7.7 percent and 7.4 percent respectively over 2011–2016, are expected to drive the growth of the worldwide mobile subscriber base

At end-2011, worldwide mobile subscribers stood at nearly 6 billion. This subscriber base is now projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6 percent between 2011 and 2016, and is expected to cross 8 billion by end-2016.

Asia Pacific’s subscribers constituted 50.7 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2011, while the second largest contributor was Europe with 18.3 percent

The emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and Africa and Middle East, with CAGRs of more than 7.7 percent and 7.4 percent respectively over 2011–2016, are expected to drive the growth of the worldwide mobile subscriber base

Mobile Subscribers: HighlightsMobile Subscribers: Highlights

18.3%

50.7%

5.9%

10.0%

15.1%

Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East


Introduction (2/2)

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

100

200

300

400

0

10

20

30

40

50

148.4 174.9 202.0 231.0 259.0 281.7 298.8 310.2

34.1 35.0 35.7 37.1 38.6 39.5 39.7 39.5

Mobile Messaging Revenue — Worldwide

Mobile Messaging Revenue Annual Messaging ARPU

Year

Mo

bile

Me

ssa

gin

g R

eve

nu

e (

In U

SD

Bill

ion

)

An

nu

al M

ess

ag

ing

AR

PU

(in

US

D)

The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 202 billion in 2011. This number is forecast to rise to USD 310.2 billion by end-2016, at a CAGR of 9 percent between 2011 and 2016.

Asia Pacific generated the highest mobile messaging revenue in 2011 and Latin America produced the least Among the mobile messaging services scrutinised in this report, SMS yielded the highest revenue for operators in 2011 and mobile IM

gathered the least revenue In 2011, average messaging ARPU stood at USD 35.7 and is expected to increase for at least the next four years to reach USD 39.7 in 2015.

In 2016, owing to the comparatively slower growth in worldwide messaging revenue than subscriber numbers, average messaging ARPU is expected to see a dip, albeit only slight.

Supported by the biggest subscriber base, Asia Pacific is the largest market for mobile messaging

The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 202 billion in 2011. This number is forecast to rise to USD 310.2 billion by end-2016, at a CAGR of 9 percent between 2011 and 2016.

Asia Pacific generated the highest mobile messaging revenue in 2011 and Latin America produced the least Among the mobile messaging services scrutinised in this report, SMS yielded the highest revenue for operators in 2011 and mobile IM

gathered the least revenue In 2011, average messaging ARPU stood at USD 35.7 and is expected to increase for at least the next four years to reach USD 39.7 in 2015.

In 2016, owing to the comparatively slower growth in worldwide messaging revenue than subscriber numbers, average messaging ARPU is expected to see a dip, albeit only slight.

Supported by the biggest subscriber base, Asia Pacific is the largest market for mobile messaging



Presentation Plan

SMS2

Introduction1


MMS4

Mobile E-mail 5

Mobile IM 6


SMS Traffic – Worldwide

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5,225.66,834.5 7,843.7 8,599.7 9,162.9 9,443.5 9,639.3 9,554.2

100.1113.9 115.5 115.0 113.8 109.3 105.1 102.0

SMS Traffic and Use — Worldwide

SMS Traffic SMS Use per Subscriber per MonthYear

SM

S T

raff

ic (

In B

illio

n)

SM

S U

se p

er S

ubsc

riber

per

Mon

th

12.1%

49.4%

31.1%

5.0%2.4%

Europe Asia Pacif ic North America Latin America Africa and Middle East

SMS Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)SMS Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)

Over 7.8 trillion SMS were exchanged worldwide in 2011, and total SMS traffic is expected to near 9.6 trillion by end-2016 – representing a CAGR of over 4 percent

In 2011, an average subscriber sent approximately 116 text messages per month. This number is forecast to drop to 102 text messages by end-2016.

With a CAGR of almost 14.1 percent, Africa and Middle East will lead in terms of regional SMS traffic growth during 2011–2016

Worldwide A2P SMS traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.1 percent during 2011-2016, while the corresponding growth rate for P2P SMS is 1.9 percent

Over 7.8 trillion SMS were exchanged worldwide in 2011, and total SMS traffic is expected to near 9.6 trillion by end-2016 – representing a CAGR of over 4 percent

In 2011, an average subscriber sent approximately 116 text messages per month. This number is forecast to drop to 102 text messages by end-2016.

With a CAGR of almost 14.1 percent, Africa and Middle East will lead in terms of regional SMS traffic growth during 2011–2016

Worldwide A2P SMS traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.1 percent during 2011-2016, while the corresponding growth rate for P2P SMS is 1.9 percent

SMS Traffic: HighlightsSMS Traffic: Highlights



SMS Revenue – Worldwide

27.1%

42.2%

19.9%

4.3%6.5%


SMS Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)SMS Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)

In 2011, worldwide SMS revenue stood at USD 128.2 billion and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.7 percent to settle at USD 153.6 billion by end-2016

With over 42 percent contribution to worldwide SMS revenue in 2011, Asia Pacific continued its leading position worldwide in terms of SMS revenue

During 2011-2016, worldwide A2P (Application-To-Peer) SMS revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.4 percent, whereas P2P SMS revenue is forecast to decline at a CAGR of 2.7 percent

In 2011, worldwide SMS revenue stood at USD 128.2 billion and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.7 percent to settle at USD 153.6 billion by end-2016

With over 42 percent contribution to worldwide SMS revenue in 2011, Asia Pacific continued its leading position worldwide in terms of SMS revenue

During 2011-2016, worldwide A2P (Application-To-Peer) SMS revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.4 percent, whereas P2P SMS revenue is forecast to decline at a CAGR of 2.7 percent

SMS Revenue: HighlightsSMS Revenue: Highlights


98.9 113.8 128.2 140.5 150.4 155.0 155.8 153.6

0

60

120

180

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

SM

S R

even

ue

(In U

SD

Bill

ion)

Year

SMS Revenue — Worldwide


SMS Traffic – Regional

948.8

3,874.5

2,440.8

392.3 187.3

1,006.3

5,484.0

2,097.0

604.1 362.8

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


SM

S T

raff

ic(In

Bill

ion)

Region

SMS Traf f ic — Regional

2011 2016F

Total European SMS traffic is projected to grow till 2014 and then decline in 2015 and 2016; hence registering an overall growth at a CAGR of 1.2 percent during 2011-2016 – the second lowest in the worldwide SMS market, after North America

In 2011, Asia Pacific’s total SMS traffic amounted to nearly 3.9 trillion and is set to reach almost 5.5 trillion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 7.2 percent during 2011-2016

North America’s SMS traffic stood at 2.4 trillion at end-2011 and – after peaking around 2013 – is forecast to drop to 2.1 trillion by end-2016, declining at a CAGR of 3 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, total SMS traffic in the Latin American region amounted to over 392 billion; this traffic is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 9 percent during 2011-2016 to reach 604.1 billion SMS by end-2016

The overall SMS market in Africa and Middle East looks promising in the coming years and is expected to see traffic of approximately 363 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 14.1 percent between 2011 and 2016

Total European SMS traffic is projected to grow till 2014 and then decline in 2015 and 2016; hence registering an overall growth at a CAGR of 1.2 percent during 2011-2016 – the second lowest in the worldwide SMS market, after North America

In 2011, Asia Pacific’s total SMS traffic amounted to nearly 3.9 trillion and is set to reach almost 5.5 trillion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 7.2 percent during 2011-2016

North America’s SMS traffic stood at 2.4 trillion at end-2011 and – after peaking around 2013 – is forecast to drop to 2.1 trillion by end-2016, declining at a CAGR of 3 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, total SMS traffic in the Latin American region amounted to over 392 billion; this traffic is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 9 percent during 2011-2016 to reach 604.1 billion SMS by end-2016

The overall SMS market in Africa and Middle East looks promising in the coming years and is expected to see traffic of approximately 363 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 14.1 percent between 2011 and 2016



SMS Revenue – Regional

34.7

54.1

25.6

5.58.3

36.6

73.7

21.8

7.913.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


SM

S R

evenu

e(In

US

D B

illio

n)

Region

SMS Revenue — Regional

2011 2016F

Between 2011-2016, Europe’s SMS revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of a mere 1 percent – second lowest among all regions after North America

SMS revenue generated in Asia Pacific in 2011 stood at USD 54.1 billion and is forecast to reach USD 73.7 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 6.4 percent. The region’s contribution to SMS revenue is projected to reach 48 percent in 2016, against 42.2 percent in 2011.

The revenue generated from SMS in the North American region is forecast to ultimately decline from USD 25.6 billion in 2011 to USD 21.8 billion in 2016, dropping at a CAGR of 3.2 percent during 2011-2016

Latin America’s SMS revenue amounted to USD 5.5 billion in 2011 and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.6 percent to reach USD 7.9 billion in 2016

Annual SMS revenue in Africa and Middle East is projected to grow from USD 8.3 billion in 2011 to USD 13.6 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of nearly 10.4 percent

Between 2011-2016, Europe’s SMS revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of a mere 1 percent – second lowest among all regions after North America

SMS revenue generated in Asia Pacific in 2011 stood at USD 54.1 billion and is forecast to reach USD 73.7 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 6.4 percent. The region’s contribution to SMS revenue is projected to reach 48 percent in 2016, against 42.2 percent in 2011.

The revenue generated from SMS in the North American region is forecast to ultimately decline from USD 25.6 billion in 2011 to USD 21.8 billion in 2016, dropping at a CAGR of 3.2 percent during 2011-2016

Latin America’s SMS revenue amounted to USD 5.5 billion in 2011 and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.6 percent to reach USD 7.9 billion in 2016

Annual SMS revenue in Africa and Middle East is projected to grow from USD 8.3 billion in 2011 to USD 13.6 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of nearly 10.4 percent



Presentation Plan

OTT Messaging3

Introduction1

SMS2

MMS4

Mobile E-mail 5

Mobile IM 6


OTT Users – Worldwide

146.6 214.7 306.4 438.2 640.8946.4

1,417.42,001.1

3.1% 4.0% 5.1%6.8%

9.2%12.9%

18.4%

25.0%

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

OTT

Use

r P

enet

ratio

n (In

Per

cent

)

OTT

Use

rs (

In M

illio

n)

Year

OTT Users — Worldwide

OTT Users OTT Users Penetration

OTT Users Break-out – Regional (2011)OTT Users Break-out – Regional (2011)

The worldwide OTT messaging user base stood at 306.4 million at end-2011

Widespread adoption of smartphones, better network coverage, compelling and affordable data plans and the launch of numerous OTT messaging services have bolstered uptake

With the aforementioned favourable factors in mind, OTT users are expected to total over 2 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 45.5 percent

The worldwide OTT messaging user base stood at 306.4 million at end-2011

Widespread adoption of smartphones, better network coverage, compelling and affordable data plans and the launch of numerous OTT messaging services have bolstered uptake

With the aforementioned favourable factors in mind, OTT users are expected to total over 2 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 45.5 percent

OTT Users: HighlightsOTT Users: Highlights


25.4%

34.9%

30.9%

2.8%6.0%



OTT Messaging Traffic – Worldwide

OTT Messaging Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)*OTT Messaging Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)*

OTT messaging traffic spiked from 59.6 billion in 2009 to 1.3 trillion in 2010. The growth continued and registered traffic of 3.5 trillion in 2011.

With the ever increasing uptake of smartphones and mobile data services, this growth is expected to continue and will reach 20.3 trillion by end-2016

During the period 2011-2016, OTT messaging traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42.2 percent

OTT messaging traffic spiked from 59.6 billion in 2009 to 1.3 trillion in 2010. The growth continued and registered traffic of 3.5 trillion in 2011.

With the ever increasing uptake of smartphones and mobile data services, this growth is expected to continue and will reach 20.3 trillion by end-2016

During the period 2011-2016, OTT messaging traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42.2 percent

OTT Messaging Traffic : HighlightsOTT Messaging Traffic : Highlights


6.8%

19.1%

72.7%

0.7%0.6%

Europe Asia Pacif ic North AmericaLatin America Africa and Middle East

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

59.6 1,297.1 3,491.6 5,846.28,993.7

12,682.116,426.1

20,293.1

OTT Messaging Traffic — Worldwide

Year

OT

T M

ess

ag

ing

Tra

ffic

(

In

Bill

ion

)

* Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding-off errors


Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East0

200

400

600

800

1,000

77.9 107.0 94.6

8.5 18.4

416.0

924.6

309.2

147.6203.8

OTT Users — Regional

2011 2016F

Region

OT

T U

sers

(In

Mill

ion

)OTT Users – Regional

Asia Pacific had the largest regional OTT messaging user base in 2011, constituting nearly 35 percent of the worldwide user base. It was followed by North America and Europe with 30.9 percent and 25.4 percent respectively.

Asia Pacific is expected to strengthen its position and continue its dominance till 2016 by contributing 46.2 percent to the worldwide OTT messaging user base, while Europe will overtake North America to be the second largest contributor

Latin America and Africa and Middle East will also increase their respective contributions in 2016

Asia Pacific had the largest regional OTT messaging user base in 2011, constituting nearly 35 percent of the worldwide user base. It was followed by North America and Europe with 30.9 percent and 25.4 percent respectively.

Asia Pacific is expected to strengthen its position and continue its dominance till 2016 by contributing 46.2 percent to the worldwide OTT messaging user base, while Europe will overtake North America to be the second largest contributor

Latin America and Africa and Middle East will also increase their respective contributions in 2016




2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

237.1 668.0

2,538.5

25.5 22.5

1,884.7

7,085.2

10,496.7

451.2 375.4

OTT Messaging Traffic — Regional

2011 2016F

Region

OT

T M

ess

ag

ing

Tra

ffic

(In

Bill

ion

)OTT Messaging Traffic – Regional

North America had the highest contribution of 72.7 percent to worldwide OTT messaging traffic in 2011, owing to high regional smartphone penetration and high mobile data usage among mobile subscribers

North America will continue its dominance through to 2016 owing largely to the heavy messaging usage among regional mobile subscribers, and will contribute 51.7 percent to worldwide OTT messaging traffic in 2016

In 2016, Asia Pacific will place second with a contribution of 34.9 percent. Here, the huge subscriber base converting to OTT messaging service users will help to increase its percentage contribution significantly.

North America had the highest contribution of 72.7 percent to worldwide OTT messaging traffic in 2011, owing to high regional smartphone penetration and high mobile data usage among mobile subscribers

North America will continue its dominance through to 2016 owing largely to the heavy messaging usage among regional mobile subscribers, and will contribute 51.7 percent to worldwide OTT messaging traffic in 2016

In 2016, Asia Pacific will place second with a contribution of 34.9 percent. Here, the huge subscriber base converting to OTT messaging service users will help to increase its percentage contribution significantly.



P2P SMS and OTT Messaging Traffic

We spoke to many of the major players in the messaging industry over the months that we were researching this report, and we found that on the whole, they mainly agreed with our opinion that OTT and social networking are boosting overall mobile messaging, and the cannibalisation of SMS is minimal

Clearly OTT services are a significant new category, with lots of growth ahead. However, for the foreseeable future, they still do not pose a significant threat to SMS at a worldwide level.

The ultimate reach of SMS – over 5 billion people at worldwide level irrespective of network type, device type and brand – packs a number of unique benefits. The reliability associated with SMS makes it a perfect choice for alerts and notifications. Additionally, in the business segment, its widespread reach combined with associated reliability and security makes it suitable for enterprise and machine-to-machine communications.

We spoke to many of the major players in the messaging industry over the months that we were researching this report, and we found that on the whole, they mainly agreed with our opinion that OTT and social networking are boosting overall mobile messaging, and the cannibalisation of SMS is minimal

Clearly OTT services are a significant new category, with lots of growth ahead. However, for the foreseeable future, they still do not pose a significant threat to SMS at a worldwide level.

The ultimate reach of SMS – over 5 billion people at worldwide level irrespective of network type, device type and brand – packs a number of unique benefits. The reliability associated with SMS makes it a perfect choice for alerts and notifications. Additionally, in the business segment, its widespread reach combined with associated reliability and security makes it suitable for enterprise and machine-to-machine communications.


2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

4,693.3 7,250.0 10,077.1 12,841.716,276.8

20,039.423,815.6

27,515.0

P2P SMS and OTT Messaging Traffic — Worldwide

Year

P2

P S

MS

an

d O

TT

Me

ssa

gin

g

Tra

ffic

(I

n

Bill

ion

)


Presentation Plan

Introduction1

SMS2


Mobile E-mail 5

Mobile IM 6

MMS4


MMS Traffic – Worldwide

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

50

100

150

200

250

300

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

169.1195.7 207.2

228.4245.9 259.1 270.3 276.8

38.9 39.2

36.6 36.7 36.636.3

36.035.3

MMS Traffic and Use — Worldwide

MMS Traffic MMS Use per Subscriber per Year

Year

MM

S T

raff

ic

(In

Bill

ion

)

MM

S U

se p

er

Su

bsc

rib

er

pe

r Y

ea

r

7.4%

62.2%

27.8%

1.0% 1.6%


MMS Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)MMS Traffic Break-out – Regional (2011)

Around 207 billion MMS were generated in 2011, representing a y-o-y growth rate of nearly 6 percent. Traffic is now forecast to reach close to 277 billion by end-2016, after increasing at a CAGR of 6 percent during 2011-2016.

In 2011, Asia Pacific had the largest share in worldwide MMS traffic followed by North America

The markets of Latin America and Africa and Middle East will also show an increase in their contribution to worldwide MMS traffic during the same period, albeit by a very small margin

North America will witness a decline in its share of worldwide MMS traffic during 2011-2016

Around 207 billion MMS were generated in 2011, representing a y-o-y growth rate of nearly 6 percent. Traffic is now forecast to reach close to 277 billion by end-2016, after increasing at a CAGR of 6 percent during 2011-2016.

In 2011, Asia Pacific had the largest share in worldwide MMS traffic followed by North America

The markets of Latin America and Africa and Middle East will also show an increase in their contribution to worldwide MMS traffic during the same period, albeit by a very small margin

North America will witness a decline in its share of worldwide MMS traffic during 2011-2016

MMS Traffic: HighlightsMMS Traffic: Highlights



MMS Revenue – Worldwide

30.1%

31.9%

30.9%

3.1%4.0%


MMS Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)MMS Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)

In 2011, MMS generated USD 30.8 billion of revenue worldwide, an increase of nearly 5 percent on 2010 revenue

Worldwide MMS revenue is forecast to reach USD 38.5 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of approximately 4.5 percent during 2011-2016

Asia Pacific contributed the most to worldwide MMS revenue in 2011, closely followed by North America and Europe

The Asia Pacific region is forecast to not only retain its dominance in the worldwide MMS market, but also increase its share in the MMS revenue pie from 31.9 percent in 2011 to 33.7 percent by end-2016

In 2011, MMS generated USD 30.8 billion of revenue worldwide, an increase of nearly 5 percent on 2010 revenue

Worldwide MMS revenue is forecast to reach USD 38.5 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of approximately 4.5 percent during 2011-2016

Asia Pacific contributed the most to worldwide MMS revenue in 2011, closely followed by North America and Europe

The Asia Pacific region is forecast to not only retain its dominance in the worldwide MMS market, but also increase its share in the MMS revenue pie from 31.9 percent in 2011 to 33.7 percent by end-2016

MMS Revenue: HighlightsMMS Revenue: Highlights


2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

9

18

27

36

45

26.3 29.5 30.8 33.4 35.7 37.3 38.3 38.5

MMS Revenue — Worldwide

Year

MM

S R

even

ue

(In

US

D B

illio

n)


MMS Traffic – Regional


50

100

150

200

15.3

129.0

58.0

2.1 3.322.0

179.6

60.8

4.4 10.0

MMS Traffic – Regional

2011 2016F

Region

MM

S T

raff

ic (

In B

illio

n)

In 2011, MMS traffic in Europe amounted to 15.3 billion MMS and is forecast to reach 22 billion MMS by end-2016 – growing at a CAGR of 7.5 percent

Asia Pacific’s total MMS traffic in 2011 stood at 129 billion and is expected to reach 179.6 billion in 2016, after growing at a CAGR of 6.8 percent during 2011-2016

MMS traffic in North America is expected to ultimately increase from nearly 58 billion in 2011 to just 60.8 billion MMS by end-2016, growing at a mediocre CAGR of about one percent

Total MMS traffic for Latin American markets during 2011 was 2.1 billion. This is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.4 percent during 2011-2016 to reach 4.4 billion by end-2016.

In Africa and Middle East, countries such as Iran, Kenya, South Africa and DR of Congo witnessed over 20 percent growth in MMS traffic, and Oman saw incredible growth of more than 111 percent in MMS traffic in 2011

In 2011, MMS traffic in Europe amounted to 15.3 billion MMS and is forecast to reach 22 billion MMS by end-2016 – growing at a CAGR of 7.5 percent

Asia Pacific’s total MMS traffic in 2011 stood at 129 billion and is expected to reach 179.6 billion in 2016, after growing at a CAGR of 6.8 percent during 2011-2016

MMS traffic in North America is expected to ultimately increase from nearly 58 billion in 2011 to just 60.8 billion MMS by end-2016, growing at a mediocre CAGR of about one percent

Total MMS traffic for Latin American markets during 2011 was 2.1 billion. This is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.4 percent during 2011-2016 to reach 4.4 billion by end-2016.

In Africa and Middle East, countries such as Iran, Kenya, South Africa and DR of Congo witnessed over 20 percent growth in MMS traffic, and Oman saw incredible growth of more than 111 percent in MMS traffic in 2011



MMS Revenue – Regional


2

4

6

8

10

12

14

9.3 9.8 9.5

1.0 1.2

11.713.0

10.0

1.42.4

MMS Revenue – Regional

2011 2016F

Region

MM

S R

eve

nu

e (

In U

SD

Bill

ion

)

European MMS revenue stood at USD 9.3 billion in 2011. This figure is forecast to reach USD 11.7 billion by end-2016 – a CAGR of 4.8 percent, and the second slowest growth rate among all regions worldwide, after North America.

MMS revenue for Asia Pacific in 2011 was USD 9.8 billion. It is now expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7 percent during 2011-2016 and end 2016 at USD 13 billion.

North America’s MMS revenue will rise to USD 10 billion in 2016 – also at a CAGR of one percent between 2011 and 2016, the lowest regional growth rate

MMS revenue for Latin America during 2011 amounted to nearly USD 1 billion and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5 percent during 2011-2016 to reach USD 1.4 billion in 2016

Annual MMS revenue for Africa and Middle East is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.1 percent from USD 1.2 billion in 2011 to USD 2.4 billion in 2016, while the region’s contribution to worldwide MMS revenue will increase from 4 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2016

European MMS revenue stood at USD 9.3 billion in 2011. This figure is forecast to reach USD 11.7 billion by end-2016 – a CAGR of 4.8 percent, and the second slowest growth rate among all regions worldwide, after North America.

MMS revenue for Asia Pacific in 2011 was USD 9.8 billion. It is now expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7 percent during 2011-2016 and end 2016 at USD 13 billion.

North America’s MMS revenue will rise to USD 10 billion in 2016 – also at a CAGR of one percent between 2011 and 2016, the lowest regional growth rate

MMS revenue for Latin America during 2011 amounted to nearly USD 1 billion and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5 percent during 2011-2016 to reach USD 1.4 billion in 2016

Annual MMS revenue for Africa and Middle East is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.1 percent from USD 1.2 billion in 2011 to USD 2.4 billion in 2016, while the region’s contribution to worldwide MMS revenue will increase from 4 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2016



Presentation Plan

Introduction1

SMS2


MMS4

Mobile IM 6

Mobile E-mail 5


Mobile E-mail Users – Worldwide

335.1 474.5 669.5 928.3 1,243.21,602.4

2,001.22,430.0

7.2% 8.9%11.2%

14.3%17.9%

21.8%26.0%

30.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Mo

bile

E-m

ail P

enet

ratio

n (In

Per

cent

)

Mo

bile

E-m

ail U

sers

(In

Mill

ion)

Year

Mobile E-mail Users — Worldwide

Mobile E-mail Users Mobile E-mail Penetration

Mobile E-mail Users Break-out – Regional (2011)Mobile E-mail Users Break-out – Regional (2011)

At end-2011, the worldwide mobile e-mail user base stood at 669.5 million, representing a y-o-y growth rate of over 41 percent. By end-2016, the mobile e-mail user base is expected to cross 2.4 billion, growing at a CAGR of 29.4 percent during 2011-2016.

With heavy investments being made on infrastructure and the pledged migration to advanced networks, strong growth is expected in the emerging markets in the coming years

In 2011, mobile e-mail users worldwide formed 11.2 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. This penetration is now forecast to grow in the coming years and cross 30 percent by end-2016.

At end-2011, the worldwide mobile e-mail user base stood at 669.5 million, representing a y-o-y growth rate of over 41 percent. By end-2016, the mobile e-mail user base is expected to cross 2.4 billion, growing at a CAGR of 29.4 percent during 2011-2016.

With heavy investments being made on infrastructure and the pledged migration to advanced networks, strong growth is expected in the emerging markets in the coming years

In 2011, mobile e-mail users worldwide formed 11.2 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. This penetration is now forecast to grow in the coming years and cross 30 percent by end-2016.

Mobile E-mail Users: HighlightsMobile E-mail Users: Highlights


24.8%

49.1%

19.5%

4.2% 2.4%



Mobile E-mail Revenue – Worldwide

Mobile E-mail Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)Mobile E-mail Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)

In 2011, mobile e-mail generated USD 32.7 billion in revenue worldwide, and this figure is expected to break USD 75 billion by end-2016, after growing at a CAGR of over 18 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, Europe was the largest worldwide market in terms of mobile e-mail revenues, amassing almost 40 percent of worldwide mobile e-mail revenues, while Asia Pacific and North America claimed second and third positions respectively

By end-2016, Europe, Asia Pacific and North America are expected to witness a decline in their share, again owing to the increasing contribution from Africa and Middle East, and Latin America

In 2011, mobile e-mail generated USD 32.7 billion in revenue worldwide, and this figure is expected to break USD 75 billion by end-2016, after growing at a CAGR of over 18 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, Europe was the largest worldwide market in terms of mobile e-mail revenues, amassing almost 40 percent of worldwide mobile e-mail revenues, while Asia Pacific and North America claimed second and third positions respectively

By end-2016, Europe, Asia Pacific and North America are expected to witness a decline in their share, again owing to the increasing contribution from Africa and Middle East, and Latin America

Mobile E-mail Revenue: HighlightsMobile E-mail Revenue: Highlights


39.7%

32.9%

22.0%

2.7% 2.6%


2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

1020304050607080

18.8 24.8 32.742.2

52.561.9 69.6 75.4

Mobile E-mail Revenue — Worldwide

Year

Mo

bile

E-m

ail

Re

ven

ue

(

In U

SD

B

illio

n)



200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

166.2329.0

130.228.2 15.9

586.4

1,167.1

391.0

196.289.3

Mobile E-mail Users — Regional

2011 2016FRegion

Mo

bile

E-m

ail

Use

rs

(In

M

illio

n)

Mobile E-mail Users – Regional

The European mobile e-mail user base is set to grow from 166.2 million in 2011 to 586.4 million by end-2016 – a CAGR of 28.7 percent Totalling 329 million, mobile e-mail users in Asia Pacific accounted for nearly half of the total mobile e-mail user base worldwide at end-2011 –

in part attributable to the region’s huge subscriber base North America has the highest penetration of mobile e-mail users among the five regions worldwide. In 2011, 36.8 percent of mobile

subscribers were using mobile e-mail services and this percentage is now forecast to reach nearly 92 percent by end-2016. Latin America will increase its share in the worldwide mobile e-mail user base from 4.2 percent in 2011 to 8.1 percent by end-2016 In 2011, Africa and Middle East’s contribution to the worldwide mobile e-mail user base stood at 2.4 percent – the lowest regional contribution.

By end-2016, while this share is expected to reach 3.7 percent, it will remain the lowest regional contribution.

The European mobile e-mail user base is set to grow from 166.2 million in 2011 to 586.4 million by end-2016 – a CAGR of 28.7 percent Totalling 329 million, mobile e-mail users in Asia Pacific accounted for nearly half of the total mobile e-mail user base worldwide at end-2011 –

in part attributable to the region’s huge subscriber base North America has the highest penetration of mobile e-mail users among the five regions worldwide. In 2011, 36.8 percent of mobile

subscribers were using mobile e-mail services and this percentage is now forecast to reach nearly 92 percent by end-2016. Latin America will increase its share in the worldwide mobile e-mail user base from 4.2 percent in 2011 to 8.1 percent by end-2016 In 2011, Africa and Middle East’s contribution to the worldwide mobile e-mail user base stood at 2.4 percent – the lowest regional contribution.

By end-2016, while this share is expected to reach 3.7 percent, it will remain the lowest regional contribution.




5

10

15

20

25

30

13.010.8

7.2

0.9 0.8

27.024.0

15.3

5.33.7

Mobile E-mail Revenue — Regional

2011 2016FRegion

Mo

bile

E-m

ail

Re

ven

ue

(I

n

Bill

ion

)

Mobile E-mail Revenue – Regional

The European mobile e-mail market generated USD 13 billion in revenue in 2011, making it the biggest mobile e-mail market worldwide in revenue terms in 2011

Annual mobile e-mail revenue generated in Asia Pacific stood at USD 10.8 billion in 2011. This number is expected to increase to USD 24 billion by end-2016, after achieving a CAGR of 17.4 percent during 2011-2016.

The advanced North American mobile e-mail market was worth USD 7.2 billion in 2011, and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 16.2 percent to now reach USD 15.3 billion by end-2016; this regional growth rate is the second lowest

Mobile e-mail revenue generated in Latin America totaled USD 0.9 billion in 2011. By end-2016, revenue will rise to USD 5.3 billion, at a CAGR of 43.1 percent during 2011-2016 – which is again the highest regional CAGR.

The region’s mobile e-mail revenue is now forecast to grow at a CAGR of nearly 35 percent from USD 0.8 billion in 2011 to USD 3.7 billion by end-2016

The European mobile e-mail market generated USD 13 billion in revenue in 2011, making it the biggest mobile e-mail market worldwide in revenue terms in 2011

Annual mobile e-mail revenue generated in Asia Pacific stood at USD 10.8 billion in 2011. This number is expected to increase to USD 24 billion by end-2016, after achieving a CAGR of 17.4 percent during 2011-2016.

The advanced North American mobile e-mail market was worth USD 7.2 billion in 2011, and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 16.2 percent to now reach USD 15.3 billion by end-2016; this regional growth rate is the second lowest

Mobile e-mail revenue generated in Latin America totaled USD 0.9 billion in 2011. By end-2016, revenue will rise to USD 5.3 billion, at a CAGR of 43.1 percent during 2011-2016 – which is again the highest regional CAGR.

The region’s mobile e-mail revenue is now forecast to grow at a CAGR of nearly 35 percent from USD 0.8 billion in 2011 to USD 3.7 billion by end-2016



Presentation Plan

Introduction1

SMS2


MMS4

Mobile E-mail6

Mobile IM5


194.3 306.9 473.6 707.0 1,013.51,411.9

1,896.82,471.4

4.2% 5.7%7.9%

10.9%14.6%

19.2%

24.6%

30.9%

0%

8%

16%

24%

32%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Mo

bile

IM P

enet

ratio

n(In

Per

cent

)

Mo

bile

IM U

sers

(In

Mill

ion)

Year

Mobile IM Users — Worldwide

Mobile IM Users Mobile IM Penetration

26.2%

39.3%

21.9%

6.1%

6.5%


Mobile IM Users – Worldwide

Mobile IM Users Break-out – Regional (2011)Mobile IM Users Break-out – Regional (2011)

In 2011, the worldwide mobile IM user base stood at nearly 474 million and this is now forecast to grow to over 2.47 billion by end-2016, at a CAGR of 39.2 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, mobile IM users accounted for 7.9 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. This penetration is projected to rise to 30.9 percent by end-2016.

In 2011, Asia Pacific was the highest contributor to the worldwide mobile IM user base with a 39.3 percent share, primarily owing to its huge subscriber base

In 2011, the worldwide mobile IM user base stood at nearly 474 million and this is now forecast to grow to over 2.47 billion by end-2016, at a CAGR of 39.2 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, mobile IM users accounted for 7.9 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. This penetration is projected to rise to 30.9 percent by end-2016.

In 2011, Asia Pacific was the highest contributor to the worldwide mobile IM user base with a 39.3 percent share, primarily owing to its huge subscriber base

Mobile IM Users: HighlightsMobile IM Users: Highlights



38.0%

24.0%

24.9%

4.2%

9.0%


Mobile IM Revenue – Worldwide

Mobile IM Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)*Mobile IM Revenue Break-out – Regional (2011)*

Mobile IM generated worldwide revenues of over USD 10 billion in 2011, representing y-o-y growth of nearly 50 percent. Annual mobile IM revenue is forecast to near USD 43 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 33.2 percent during 2011-2016.

Europe made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue in 2011 with 38 percent, while North America came second with 24.9 percent

Asia Pacific will assume the dominant position in 2016, with Europe and North America respectively demoted to second and third highest revenue contributors

Mobile IM generated worldwide revenues of over USD 10 billion in 2011, representing y-o-y growth of nearly 50 percent. Annual mobile IM revenue is forecast to near USD 43 billion by end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 33.2 percent during 2011-2016.

Europe made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue in 2011 with 38 percent, while North America came second with 24.9 percent

Asia Pacific will assume the dominant position in 2016, with Europe and North America respectively demoted to second and third highest revenue contributors

Mobile IM Revenue: HighlightsMobile IM Revenue: Highlights

Source: Portio Research Ltd.* Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding-off errors

4.4 6.8 10.2 14.8 20.527.4

35.142.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Mo

bile

IM R

even

ue

(In U

SD

B

illio

n)

Year

Mobile IM Revenue – Worldwide



200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

124.2 186.3 103.628.7 30.8

521.4

1,143.4

379.4211.3 215.9

Mobile IM Users — Regional

2011 2016FRegion

Mo

bile

IM

Use

rs

(In

Mill

ion

)Mobile IM Users – Regional

Despite having a large subscriber base and being an advanced market – in terms of infrastructure and subscribers’ technical know-how – Europe still trails behind North America in terms of mobile IM penetration, and will remain in situ through 2016

At end-2016, Asia Pacific will account for 46.3 percent of worldwide mobile IM users In 2011, North America’s mobile IM user base stood at 103.6 million, registering 45.6 percent y-o-y growth, and represented nearly 22 percent

of the total worldwide mobile IM user base In 2011, Latin America’s mobile IM user base stood at 28.7 million and accounted for over 6 percent of the worldwide mobile IM user base Africa and Middle East’s contribution to the worldwide mobile IM user base is also expected to rise from 6.5 percent in 2011 to 8.7 percent in

2016

Despite having a large subscriber base and being an advanced market – in terms of infrastructure and subscribers’ technical know-how – Europe still trails behind North America in terms of mobile IM penetration, and will remain in situ through 2016

At end-2016, Asia Pacific will account for 46.3 percent of worldwide mobile IM users In 2011, North America’s mobile IM user base stood at 103.6 million, registering 45.6 percent y-o-y growth, and represented nearly 22 percent

of the total worldwide mobile IM user base In 2011, Latin America’s mobile IM user base stood at 28.7 million and accounted for over 6 percent of the worldwide mobile IM user base Africa and Middle East’s contribution to the worldwide mobile IM user base is also expected to rise from 6.5 percent in 2011 to 8.7 percent in

2016




10121416

3.92.4 2.5

0.4 0.9

12.613.9

8.1

3.15.0

Mobile IM Revenue — Regional

2011 2016FRegion

Mo

bile

IM

Re

ven

ue

(I

n U

SD

Bill

ion

)Mobile IM Revenue – Regional

In 2011, Europe made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue with 38 percent, however, the region’s percentage share will drop to 29.5 by end-2016, by which time it will have only the second highest regional contribution

In 2011, mobile IM revenue in Asia Pacific stood at USD 2.4 billion, forming 24 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue North American mobile IM revenue was USD 2.5 billion in 2011, and accounted for 24.9 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue. The region’s

contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue is expected to decline in the coming years, and by end-2016 only 18.9 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue will originate from North America.

Due to mobile IM’s comparative lack of popularity in Latin America and lower tariffs, the 0.4 billion in revenue generated by Latin American users in 2011 made the smallest contribution (4.2 percent) to worldwide mobile IM revenue in 2011

Africa and Middle East’s contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue stood at 9 percent in 2011 and will account for approximately 12 percent in 2016, when revenue will now reach USD 5 billion – after growing at a CAGR of over 40 percent during 2011-2016

In 2011, Europe made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue with 38 percent, however, the region’s percentage share will drop to 29.5 by end-2016, by which time it will have only the second highest regional contribution

In 2011, mobile IM revenue in Asia Pacific stood at USD 2.4 billion, forming 24 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue North American mobile IM revenue was USD 2.5 billion in 2011, and accounted for 24.9 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue. The region’s

contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue is expected to decline in the coming years, and by end-2016 only 18.9 percent of worldwide mobile IM revenue will originate from North America.

Due to mobile IM’s comparative lack of popularity in Latin America and lower tariffs, the 0.4 billion in revenue generated by Latin American users in 2011 made the smallest contribution (4.2 percent) to worldwide mobile IM revenue in 2011

Africa and Middle East’s contribution to worldwide mobile IM revenue stood at 9 percent in 2011 and will account for approximately 12 percent in 2016, when revenue will now reach USD 5 billion – after growing at a CAGR of over 40 percent during 2011-2016



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executive summary - mobile messaging futures 2012 edition

Technology

mobile messaging source

mobile messaging services

electronic document

average messaging arpu

highest revenue

asia pacifics subscribers

millionmobile subscribers

biggest subscriber base