Executive summary

Welcome to Fjord Trends 2019, our predictions for business, technology and design in the year ahead. Today, we stand at a technological, political and environmental inflection point. Two decades of rapid technology growth and innovation have generated enormous physical and digital clutter. The steep demand on our planet’s resources mirrors the demand on our time and attention, which leads to our meta theme this year: the search for value and relevance.

Digital is now facing a big spring-cleaning: a time when we decide whether something still has value and relevance to our lives. This is a question about the long term, not just the sugar high of instant gratification.

As you read through the Trends, you will see that they raise plenty of fundamental questions. Does the brand deserve a space in my life and in the world? Is the value exchange two-way? Is it doing something more than straining the planet? If the answer is no, then unsubscribe or delete. It has never been easier to do so.

In 2019, success will lie in providing value relevant not only to individuals, but also to the world. Value creation will not come from simply growing bigger, but by being better. In busy lives and on a crowded planet, only the relevant will remain.

Make yourself heard by consumers who want quiet in a noisy world.

Trend 01

People are disconnecting, unsubscribing and opting out from the barrage of content and messages that clutter daily life. It’s no longer simply a lifestyle choice, but a health issue. As consumers put up more barriers between themselves and digital technologies, organizations must learn how to offer value to those who crave quiet in a noisy world.

Where once consumers celebrated novelty, excitement and instant gratification, they now reject organizations that shout to get attention. Hence, mindful design is fast rising up the

agenda for big tech firms. Products should also be designed to meet customers’ holistic needs, shaped to sit favorably within the ecosystem of other products competing for attention. The metrics of success will change, such as prioritizing long-term value over usage time.

If you don’t want to disturb a customer with too many messages, make the ones you do send really good. Consideration and respect will become central to long-term meaningful consumer relationships.

Silence is gold

02

The last straw?

Trend 02

People expect products and services to have built-in sustainability – or they'll reject those who don’t.

Our concerns about global warming, pollution and sustainability have experienced a cultural shift. Where once it was “too big to do anything about,” now it’s personal.

In 2019, it won’t be enough for organizations to simply acknowledge environmental concerns – people expect commitment to be proven through action, like California becoming the first US state to ban plastic straws in restaurants. Systems and business models will need to be redesigned to fit the “circular economy,” where sustainability is built into products and services and consumers are

active participants. So acts such as refilling or returning will need to be as great as the experience of buying. New legislation will add pressure for change, as will increased power of communities impatient for action. New players and big businesses could collaborate to innovate and scale.

To stand out, brands must tell stories around sourcing and impact. Organizations should think about how to extract value from waste and view sustainability as a measure value alongside financial results.

People and organizations disagree on the value of personal data. Transparency is key to bridging the gap.

Trend 03

Customers’ trust in organizations gathering and using their data has been dented. In 2019, organizations must clearly show the “payback” for users sharing their data, drawing a straight line from the act of sharing to receiving relevant products and services in return. They’ll need to demonstrate what’s in it for the customer, ensuring that the data-value exchange is fair to them. Trust and transparency will offer competitive advantage.

Expect a shift from “data maximalism” to “data minimalism” as organizations strive toward collecting only the data they need for their products and services. Minimal viable data will be the new trend in product design.

Algorithmic fairness will continue to be an issue of utmost importance. As virtually all organizations will continue to rely on algorithms for key business decisions, they must work even harder to guard against algorithmic bias. Public transparency won’t be enough – they’ll also need to develop tools that open up the AI “black box” to investigate potential bias in data sources.

Data minimalism

Ahead of the curb

Trend 04

Combat urban mobility clutter with ecosystems that meet real-time needs.

While the lines are blurring between public and private transport, passenger transit and item delivery, insufficient regulation and lack of central planning has created a free-for-all that has led to urban service clutter and a fragmented user experience.

Organizations will begin to consolidate mobility services and become more agile within a single coherent ecosystem built on real-time needs. We will see a race for clarity in the fragmented city ecosystem and also for dominance of cities’ mobility.

Multimodal and intermodal services and platforms will grow commonplace – as will mobility planning tools. Services will integrate

across multiple modes of transportation with subscription-based payment models, including a flat fee across all options. And new city data and new partnerships will shape the future of mobility, which will be a balance of existing systems and new initiatives.

While many mobility needs are not currently being met in the marketplace, anyone can unlock this with the right partner. The critical mass needed to deliver a working ecosystem will require collaboration.

The inclusivity paradox

Trend 05

Making the move from demographics to mindsets.

People expect organizations to see and engage with them as individuals. But there is a risk that by trying to be more inclusive, organizations inadvertently exclude others.

Digital technologies have given many underrepresented voices previously ignored by mainstream media the tools to unite and be heard through grassroots activity, opening the door for organizations wanting to connect with them. But what about the voices that haven’t been picked up by data or don’t fit the traditional homogenized groups? To be effectively inclusive, organizations must get better at knowing who they’re talking to.

Too many organizations still shape the design and development of mass-scale products and services based on quantitative insights

(and the assumptions they produce). One day, AI will be able to deliver true personalization using individuals’ detailed data and ultimately solve the inclusivity paradox. Until then, organizations must evolve their approach beyond stale segmentation to meaningful mindsets.

Quantitative insights don’t always give the full picture, and consumers are becoming less tolerant of those who only partly fulfill their needs and don’t solve an issue. More organizations will realize that statistical modeling has limitations and will switch to models that actively help them to achieve inclusivity.

It’s time to rethink our approaches and tools for designing spaces.

Trend 06

First, digital drove us to our screens. Then, physical fought back. Both dramatically changed our expectations of the physical world – first in retail, then in the workplace, and soon to come in public spaces.

The intertwining of digital and physical will continue to deepen in 2019. A wave of change driven by retail and office environments will hit all our spaces, from the most industrial to the least fixed.

Organizations will use their understanding of customers’ online behaviors to reshape offline experiences – and vice versa. They will open

them up to ecosystems – designing digital channels, stores, supply chains or communities to be an integrated whole. New kinds of tech partnerships between digital and physical channels will need to be explored. And it will soon become harder to distinguish between permanent and moveable space, business or art focused space, and publicly or privately-owned space.

Those that don’t invest in work or retail space, or drive differentiation in the physical environment, will give up market share to those who do.

Space odyssey

Synthetic realities

Trend 07

Capitalizing on the creative possibilities of synthetic realities.

There’s a new kind of reality on the block. Generated and mixed realities are blurring the boundaries of “truth” and challenging how we value it. As synthetic realities become more normalized in 2019, companies will need to look past the drama and fear associated with them and, instead, hone new strategies to capitalize on their creative potential.

While we must look out for potential pitfalls, we’re also seeing a wide range of positive applications of synthetic realities across entertainment, healthcare, mobility, art and design. Understandably, fear stems from the fact that they break the link between authenticity and truth. While these are legitimate concerns, the emergence of synthetic media is simply following the same path as Photoshop and CGI: first it was scary; next it was familiar; then it was accepted. We expect a similar path here, once many of the questions and concerns are properly managed.

Simulations will help break further new ground in R&D and offer new ways to educate people and other AI systems. There will be opportunities for synthetic reality to make us better humans in the real world.

trends.fjordnet.com