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1 2 M O N T H C A N D L E S T I C K ( W E E K L Y )
Prompt Natural Gas
(NG) Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
2.82 & 2.87
SUPPORT
2.75 & 2.72
Lukoil to release new natural gas strategy this autumn– S&P Global reported: Russia's Lukoil is updating its natural gas strat-egy, which it plans to present this autumn, the company's CEO Vagit Alekperov said Monday. Lukoil, Russia's second-largest crude producer, currently has a "very unique resource base," with gas resources in West Siberia, the Caspian Sea and central
I N T H E N E W S Prior Day’s NYMEX
Mar-19 Contract (CT)
© 2019 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Trading Summary NYMEX NG Futures
BEARISH
Contact Us
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1025 Airport Pkwy
Gainesville, GA 30501
www.mansfield.energy
Phone: (800) 695-6626
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
Lukoil to release new natural gas strategy this autumn
West Virginia lawmakers pass bills to expedite natural gas out-
put, transport
Russia, he said at CERAWeek by IHS Markit. The company cur-rently does not export its own gas, but sells it to Gazprom, which handles the exports, Alekperov said. Lukoil has long-term con-tracts in place with Gazprom, he said. Lukoil's new strategy would involve developing petrochemical facilities with Gazprom and get-ting higher prices for its gas supplies, Alekperov said, without providing details. For more on this story visit spglobal.com or click https://bit.ly/2VTPmwe
West Virginia lawmakers pass bills to expedite natural gas output, transport— S&P Global reported: Legislation West Virginia law-makers passed in their recently concluded legislative session is expected to encourage the construction of distribution pipeline systems in underserved areas of the state, as well as to give a tax break to production from low-producing gas wells. Among the bills passed during the session, which closed Saturday, was House Bill 2661, which allows natural gas utilities to provide incentivizes for gas drilling "where dependable, lower-priced supplies of natural gas are not readily available." The legislation, which awaits the signature of Governor Jim Justice, will help encourage the utilities to build new gas gathering systems in areas of the state "where there haven't been wells drilled in the last several years," Charlie Burd, executive director of the Independent Oil & Gas Association of West Virginia, said Monday in an interview. HB 2661 was just one of several pieces of legislation that the lawmakers passed, which are expected to help increase the state's output of gas, Burd said. For more on this story visit spglobal.com or click https://bit.ly/2Hgiydw
2.74
2.75
2.76
2.77
2.78
2.79
2.80
2.81
2.82
8:0
0
8:4
5
9:3
0
10
:15
11
:00
11
:45
12
:30
13
:15
14
:00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Month Close Change
Apr-19 2.772 (0.093)
May-19 2.785 (0.085)
Jun-19 2.834 (0.078)
Jul-19 2.887 (0.070)
Aug-19 2.904 (0.070)
Sep-19 2.892 (0.069)
Oct-19 2.906 (0.066)
Nov-19 2.949 (0.063)
Dec-19 3.074 (0.063)
Jan-20 3.147 (0.063)
Feb-20 3.083 (0.061)
Mar-20 2.962 (0.051)
Apr-20 2.645 (0.008)
May-20 2.593 (0.004)
Jun-20 2.616 (0.003)
Jul-20 2.642 (0.002)
Aug-20 2.644 (0.001)
Sep-20 2.628 0.001
Oct-20 2.650 0.003
Nov-20 2.694 0.004
Dec-20 2.843 0.006
Jan-21 2.958 0.006
Feb-21 2.903 0.008
Mar-21 2.770 0.009
1YR Strip 2.933 (0.069)
2019 2.889 (0.073)
5YR Strip 2.745 (0.002)
NATURAL GAS
Futures Close Change
NG 2.772 (0.093)
Volume 409,231 (360,234)
Open Int. 1,196,892 4,525
CRUDE AND GASOLINE
Futures Close Change
Crude 56.79 0.72
RBOB 1.8260 0.0243
Crude/NG 20.49 0.92
METALS
Futures Close Change
Gold 1,288.80 5.90
EQUITIES
Exchange Close Change
DOW 25,650.88 200.64
S&P 500 -1,718.12 40.23
CURRENCY
Currency Close Change
EUR/USD 1.1277 0.0032
USD/CND 1.2405 0.0002
W E E K L Y G A S I N U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E W I T H 5 - Y R R A N G E
Page 2 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Release Date: November 30, 2018
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Rig Count
T O D A Y ’ S P R E C I P I T A T I O N
Report Date:
Total Change
US - 1,038 (9)
CN - 211 (1)
March 1, 2019
2 4 H O U R P R E C I P I T A T I O N
1,390 BCF
(149) BCF (LAST WEEK)
(243) BCF (LAST YEAR)
(464) BCF (5-YR AVG)
Total Working Gas In
Storage
U.S. Natural Gas Supply
Gas Week 2/28 — 3/6
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +78.2
Total Supply — +84.4
Last Week (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +88.8
Total Supply — +93.7
[NEXT REPORT ON Mar 15]
U.S. Natural Gas Demand
Gas Week 2/28 — 3/6
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Power — +23.0
Total Demand — +89.8
Last Week (BCF/d)
Power — +24.4
Total Demand — +106.9
[NEXT REPORT ON Mar 15]
EIA Weekly NG Storage
Actual and Surveys for
March 8, 2019
Released March 7, 2019
Range — +210 to +145
PIRA— (142)
PointLogic — (143)
Citi Futures — (127)
EIA ACTUAL — (149)
N A T U R A L G A S B A S I S F U T U R E S , H E N R Y H U B S P O T P R I C E S , A N D F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 3 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Call
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Put
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
NYMEX WTI Delivery
Month Average ($/bbl)
(Excluding Weekends and Holidays)
-0.900
-0.700
-0.500
-0.300
-0.100
0.100
0.300
0.500
4/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
4/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
12/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
4/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
Sumas Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
4/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
4/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
12/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
4/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
Michcon Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
4/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
4/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
12/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
4/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
Transco Zone 6 Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
-1.400
-1.200
-1.000
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
4/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
4/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
12/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
4/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
San Juan Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
4/
1/2
01
9
6/1
/20
19
8/1
/20
19
10
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
2/1
/20
20
4/1
/20
20
6/1
/20
20
8/
1/2
02
0
10
/1/2
02
0
12
/1/2
02
0
2/1
/20
21
4/1
/20
21
6/
1/2
02
1
8/1
/20
21
10
/1/2
02
1
Waha Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
4/1
/20
19
6/1
/20
19
8/
1/2
01
9
10
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
2/1
/20
20
4/
1/2
02
0
6/
1/2
02
0
8/1
/20
20
10
/1/2
02
0
12
/1/2
02
0
2/
1/2
02
1
4/1
/20
21
6/1
/20
21
8/1
/20
21
10
/1/2
02
1
Transco Zone 4 Basis (platts Iferc)
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
Month:
Day Price Day Price
1 55.80 16
2 17
3 18
4 56.59 19
5 56.56 20
6 56.22 21
7 56.66 22
8 56.07 23
9 24
10 25
11 56.79 26
12 27
13 28
14 29
15 30
31
Average (Mar)
(through 03/11/2019)
Average (Feb)
Average (Jan)
55.0360
51.5505
March 2019
56.3843
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
1 3 5 7 9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Henry Hub Daily Spot Price
MAR 2019 FEB 2019 JAN 2019
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
2/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
12/1
/202
0
5/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
3/1/
2022
8/1/
2022
1/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
11/1
/202
3
4/1/
2024
9/1/
2024
2/1/
2025
7/1/
2025
12/1
/202
5
5/1/
2026
10/1
/202
6
3/1/
2027
8/1/
2027
NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
May-19
Jun-19 2.800 0.074 20.6
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
May-19
Jun-19 2.800 0.087 20.6
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Page 4 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W E A T H E R — H I G H / L O W T E M P E R A T U R E T O M O R R O W
HIGH Temperature LOW Temperature
W E A T H E R — 6 T O 1 0 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
W E A T H E R — 8 T O 1 4 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
CME Future Prices
CME Future Prices
Propane (C3)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
E T H A N E F U T U R E S , N G / E T H A N E R A T I O , P R O P A N E F U T U R E S , A N D T H E F R A C S P R E A D
Page 5 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
4/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
4/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
12/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
4/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
Ethane Futures
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
4/1
/20
19
5/1
/20
19
6/1
/20
19
7/1
/20
19
8/1
/20
19
9/1
/20
19
10
/1/2
01
9
11
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
1/1
/20
20
2/
1/2
02
0
3/1
/20
20
4/
1/2
02
0
5/1
/20
20
6/
1/2
02
0
7/1
/20
20
Ethane / Natural Gas Ratio
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
4/1
/20
19
6/1
/20
19
8/
1/2
01
9
10
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
2/1
/20
20
4/
1/2
02
0
6/1
/20
20
8/1
/20
20
10
/1/2
02
0
12
/1/2
02
0
2/1
/20
21
4/1
/20
21
6/
1/2
02
1
8/1
/20
21
10
/1/2
02
1
Propane Futures
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.20
4/
1/2
01
9
5/
1/2
01
9
6/
1/2
01
9
7/
1/2
01
9
8/
1/2
01
9
9/
1/2
01
9
10
/1/2
01
9
11
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
1/
1/2
02
0
2/
1/2
02
0
3/
1/2
02
0
4/
1/2
02
0
5/
1/2
02
0
6/
1/2
02
0
7/
1/2
02
0
Frac Spread
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
Month Close Change
Apr-19 0.294 0.003
May-19 0.296 0.004
Jun-19 0.296 0.004
Jul-19 0.296 0.004
Aug-19 0.296 0.004
Sep-19 0.295 0.003
Oct-19 0.295 0.003
Nov-19 0.295 0.003
Dec-19 0.294 0.003
Jan-20 0.294 0.003
Feb-20 0.293 0.003
Mar-20 0.291 0.003
1YR Strip 0.295 0.003
(cents/gallon)
Month Close Change
Apr-19 0.689 0.005
May-19 0.694 0.008
Jun-19 0.693 0.009
Jul-19 0.693 0.009
Aug-19 0.693 0.009
Sep-19 0.695 0.009
Oct-19 0.701 0.009
Nov-19 0.707 0.009
Dec-19 0.712 0.009
Jan-20 0.717 0.009
Feb-20 0.722 0.009
Mar-20 0.717 0.009
1YR Strip 0.703 0.009
(cents/gallon)
Prompt WTI (CL) Crude
Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
57.21 & 57.64
SUPPORT
56.16 & 55.54
Ethane : 42% 66,500 btu/g
Propane: 28% 90,830 btu/g
Butane: 11% 102,916 btu/g
Iso-Butane: 6% 98,935 btu/g
Natural Gasoline: 13%
115,021 btu/g
B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 6 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W T I C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
W T I — B R E N T S P R E A D
NYMEX WTI (CL) Futures
NYMEX Brent (BZ)
Futures
Prompt NGL Futures
FRAC Spread
Specifications
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER:
@MPG_NatGasNews
M A R C H 1 2 , 2 0 1 9
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
BULLISH
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
5/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
1/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
1/1/
2021
5/1/
2021
9/1/
2021
1/1/
2022
5/1/
2022
9/1/
2022
1/1/
2023
5/1/
2023
9/1/
2023
1/1/
2024
5/1/
2024
9/1/
2024
1/1/
2025
5/1/
2025
9/1/
2025
1/1/
2026
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
4/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
2/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
12/1
/202
0
5/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
3/1/
2022
8/1/
2022
1/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
11/1
/202
3
4/1/
2024
9/1/
2024
2/1/
2025
7/1/
2025
12/1
/202
5
5/1/
2026
10/1
/202
6
3/1/
2027
8/1/
2027
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
(12)(11)(10)
(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)0
5/
1/2
01
9
9/
1/2
01
9
1/
1/2
02
0
5/
1/2
02
0
9/
1/2
02
0
1/
1/2
02
1
5/
1/2
02
1
9/
1/2
02
1
1/
1/2
02
2
5/
1/2
02
2
9/
1/2
02
2
1/
1/2
02
3
5/
1/2
02
3
9/
1/2
02
3
1/
1/2
02
4
5/
1/2
02
4
9/
1/2
02
4
1/
1/2
02
5
3/11/2019 3/4/2019 2/11/2019
Month Close Change
May-19 66.58 0.84
Jun-19 66.48 0.82
Jul-19 66.34 0.78
Aug-19 66.22 0.74
Sep-19 66.10 0.71
Oct-19 66.00 0.69
Nov-19 65.92 0.67
Dec-19 65.81 0.65
Jan-20 65.73 0.64
Feb-20 65.62 0.61
Mar-20 65.51 0.60
Apr-20 65.39 0.60
May-20 65.25 0.59
Jun-20 65.07 0.57
Jul-20 64.93 0.57
Aug-20 64.77 0.56
Sep-20 64.60 0.54
Oct-20 64.43 0.53
Nov-20 64.24 0.51
Dec-20 64.05 0.50
Jan-21 63.89 0.48
Feb-21 63.74 0.46
Mar-21 63.59 0.44
Apr-21 63.45 0.44
1YR Strip 65.98 0.70
2019 66.18 0.74
5YR Strip 62.96 0.39
Month Close Change
Apr-19 56.79 0.72
May-19 57.12 0.69
Jun-19 57.54 0.67
Jul-19 57.97 0.65
Aug-19 58.31 0.63
Sep-19 58.55 0.61
Oct-19 58.70 0.60
Nov-19 58.78 0.59
Dec-19 58.80 0.58
Jan-20 58.76 0.56
Feb-20 58.69 0.54
Mar-20 58.60 0.53
Apr-20 58.48 0.51
May-20 58.33 0.49
Jun-20 58.18 0.49
Jul-20 58.00 0.47
Aug-20 57.82 0.45
Sep-20 57.66 0.44
Oct-20 57.49 0.41
Nov-20 57.36 0.39
Dec-20 57.24 0.39
Jan-21 57.05 0.38
Feb-21 56.85 0.36
Mar-21 56.68 0.35
1YR Strip 58.22 0.61
2019 58.06 0.64
5YR Strip 56.03 0.32
Close Change
0.800 0.005
0.828 0.002
1.227 0.014
Iso-Butane
Nat Gasoline
Apr-19
Butane