Examples from the western Indian Ocean

ASCLME/SWIOFP/FAO Nansen projects

Warwick Sauer and Kevern Cochrane

ManagemenManagement Processest Processesi) Developing i) Developing

a a management management

planplan

4.1.2 Scoping[Fishery & area,

Stakeholders,Broad issues]

4.1.3 Background information & analysis

4.1.5 Formulating rules

Implementation &enforcement

4.1.4 Setting objectives[Broad objectives,

Operational objectives,Indicators & performance

measures]

4.1.6 Monitoring

4.1.6 Long-term review

4.1.6 Short-term review

Con

sulta

tion

with

stak

ehol

ders

C

Response option 1Response option 2

Response Option 1Response Option 2

Response Option 1Response Option 2Response Option 3

Response Option 1Response Option 2Response Option 3

Kenya

Tanzania

MozambiqueZim

Zambia

Namibia

Malawi

Lesotho

UgandaOften little data available

SADCNEPAD

Seychelles

CapeVerde

Madagascar

Swaziland

Angola

Eritrea

Mauritius

In Africa a close link with the resources and socio-economic vulnerability

Assessment of the octopus resource in Rodriques

Octopus catch

• Dire situation for the local fishers

Ship board sampling

2008-2012

Over 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped off Over 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped off Spmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 by Spmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 by

european countrieseuropean countries

The need to anchor biological research to an economic and

social framework

There are many challenges...

Compiling Fisheries management plans for Tanzania, Kenya and Seychelles,

•1 month course held at Rhodes for representatives from the ASCLME/SWIOFP countries•Each country to choose a fishery and compile a management plan by December 2012

BASELINE STUDY:•Preamble•Objectives•Policy and legal framework within which the fishery is operating•Institutional and administrative frameworks•Overview of the fishery and resources exploited•Available scientific and traditional knowledge on the resources•Assessment of the importance of the fishery in the national economy•Management measures currently being used in the fishery•Effectiveness of the current management•Compliance and Enforcement:•The way forward•References

Risk Analysis involves consideration of :• the sources of risk,• their consequences and • the likelihood that they may occur.

Moreover, it allows for the prioritization of issues or hazards with justification and the subsequent prioritization of management responses.

It requires stakeholders to deliberate and come up with an agreed position and provides an agreed roadmap for the way forward. In essence it is a way of operationalizing policy.

Risk Analysis

• Identification of Issues The methodology utilizes generic component trees to help participants to tease out the main issues or concerns that the fishery faces (Figure 1).

  Consequence Level

Likelihood

Minor Moderate Major Extreme

1 2 3 4

Remote 1 1 2 3 4

Unlikely 2 2 4 6 8

Possible 3 3 6 9 12

Likely 4 4 8 12 16

This information is then used to compile a fisheries management plan…

Using the broad information required by the management plan to set management measures:

Perhaps think simple models - Gather fishery biological, economic, social and political information

to gauge trends in sustainability – Set Target and limit indicators

e.g. simple biological indicators from an Angolan study..

Proposed Example

Robot

≥ 336660< 336660≤ 217200

≤ 0.51> 0.51≥ 0.65

≥ 738< 738≤ 664

≥ 0.08< 0.08≤ 0.05

Cut off Values

≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline

Sardinella Biomass (baseline = 543 000mt)

≤ baseline M + 0.1> baseline M + 0.1> RSA Z + 0.10

Mean Z (baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03, Z = 0.41)

≥ 10% baseline< 10% baseline≤ 20% baseline

Mean size of mature fish (baseline 820mm FL)

≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline

Mean cpue(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-

1hour)

EstimatorIndicator (baseline reference point)

Proposed Example

Robot

≥ 336660< 336660≤ 217200

≤ 0.51> 0.51≥ 0.65

≥ 738< 738≤ 664

≥ 0.08< 0.08≤ 0.05

Cut off Values

≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline

Sardinella Biomass (baseline = 543 000mt)

≤ baseline M + 0.1> baseline M + 0.1> RSA Z + 0.10

Mean Z (baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03, Z = 0.41)

≥ 10% baseline< 10% baseline≤ 20% baseline

Mean size of mature fish (baseline 820mm FL)

≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline

Mean cpue(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-

1hour)

EstimatorIndicator (baseline reference point)

rr

gg

oo

gg0.15 =

105000=

goorrggoorr

oorrggoorr

gg

750 =

0.48 =

Traffic light system

No restrictions

Fishery closure

Eg. Closed areas (size and locationto be

determined)

Eg. Closed season(Aug–Oct)

First tier

Second tier

Third tier

Management framework

Indi

cato

rs

BUT HOW DO WE MAKE MANAGERS ACT ON THIS ADVICE? THE FAO CODE OF CONDUCT SUGGESTS

WE USE THE PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH FOR MANAGING MARINE SPECIES WITH LITTLE OR

UNCERTAIN DATAPrecautionary approach - If in doubt, adopt a cautious position based on a ‘worst-case’ scenarioProblem: Managers are uncomfortable at basing their management plans/strategies on what is often seen as ‘supposition’ or limited observation with limited supportive scientific evidence

Policy-Makers do not feel fully justified in making policy decisions which may threaten or impact on other social or economic priorities unless they have reliable ‘justification’ (clear advice from scientists) to support their decisions

Scientists are therefore understandable nervous about ‘sticking their necks out’ and provide advice/guidance based on anything less than very high confidence limits (95% +)

No confidence limitsManagers / policy makers reluctant to base decisions

on ‘supposition’

Provides an indication of trendsEnables faster action

Allows adaptive managementPrioritises issues for further study

Indicators and modelling used as tools

Scientific research

Precautionary approach Weight-of Evidence approach forAdaptation measures?

Few, detailed studies Large body of work

Advise and Guide Policy and Management Decisions

95% confidence requiredVery reliable but data demandingOften based on long term studies

(too long to wait)

Traditional approach

Limited Peer Review(1-3 Specialists?)

Extensive Peer Review(multi-sectoral)

Limited or No Peer Review

Too slow for effective Management decisions

Too unreliable for effective Management decisions

Fast-Track decision-making supported by expert opinion

WE REQUIRTE AN ALTERNATE APPROACH, PARICULALRY FOR DEVLOPING COUNTRIES WITH

LIMITED CAPACITY…

BUILDING AN ECOSYSTEM APPROACH TO MANAGING AFRICAN MARINE RESOURCES

ResearchTraditional Publication >95%CI

Submit Trends Paper“Trends in Ecosystem Variability & Adaptive Management”

<95%CI

IW Review Board; SET UP BY IW LEARN?

Review Panel Includes:Biological, Physico-Chemical, Modelling, Socio-

economics & Governance experts

Peer Review RosterMaintained by

Includes specialist reviewers in:Marine BiologyPhysical OceanographyChemical OceanographyPollution

ModellingRemote SensingSocio-EconomicsGovernance

Trend Assessment & Allocation

HP P L UL HUL

Reject?Recommend as Priority Trend

Ref

er B

ack

for M

ore

Con

fiden

ce

A. N

atio

nal

impo

rtanc

e -

Dra

ft P

olic

y B

rief

B. R

egio

nal i

mpo

rtanc

e - D

raft

Man

agem

ent

Brie

f

C. F

urth

er S

tudi

es &

S

treng

then

ing

of C

onfid

ence

National Agency

Regional management groups

Funding/Support