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Examining effect of climate variability on under-five children’s nutrition status
Andrew Jamali
National Statistical Office, Malawi
The Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health 12th to 13th June,London
Outline
• Introduction• Literature
– Definition, causes and effects of climate change– World, regional and local picture
• Study Objectives• Study Design
– Methods and Data Sources– Analysis
• Preliminary analysis• Conclusion• Next steps
Introduction
• Climate Change - Change in the state of Climate identified by changes in variability of its properties over extended period (decades or longer) (IPCC, 2001).
• Caused simultaneously by natural and human-induced factors (Oreskes, 2004; IPCC, 2007)
– Natural :Variations in solar output and earth’s orbit orientation on its axis
– Human: Industrialization (Piling greenhouse gas emissions due to burning fossil fuel): Changes in land use
Effects of Climate Change and Variability
• Intensified and more frequent weather events
Heat waves, none-normal precipitation, floods, droughts, hurricanes, avalanches, windstorm
• Water shortages
• Diseases :expanded geographic distribution of infectious diseases- Malaria, Cholera (IPCC 2001)
Regional Picture: Africa
• Developing regions (countries) experiencing more adverse effects , yet have little counter abilities (Malberg Dyg et al, 2011)
• Agricultural production and food security under climate variability and change induced stress (FAO 2007, 2010)
• Predictions about food security bleak
–Grains, roots and tubers must increase by 40% and meat products by 58% by 2020 to meet demand (Pinstrup-Andersen et al. 1999).
Climate variability in Malawi
• As an agro-based economy, : Climatic Parameters play critical role in Country’s economic productivity (MERP, 2012)
• Prolonged dry spells, droughts, floods and erratic rains, (Lower Shire, Lakeshore areas )(Mkwambisi,2008; Pangapanga – Phiri, 2012)
• Socio-economic and economic survival vulnerable to climate change (MGDS 11, 2009).
Study Objectives
• Examine effect of climate variability on under-five Children’s nutrition in Malawi.
• Key research question;
–How has Children's nutrition status been impacted upon by Climatic variability in Malawi in past 5 years?
Specific questions/objectives
• What have been the trends of climatic parameters key to food production (rainfall) in Malawi over the last 5 years?
• How have the trends affected production of food crops in selected livelihood zones?
• What have been the household food consumption patterns in the zones during the period of study ?
• What is the resultant effect on nutrition status of under-five children?
Rationale
• Reported Climate variability provide impetus on theneed to examine impact of climatic parameters onfood availability and possible nutritional outcomes(WHO,2009).
• Poorly nourished children pose future productive challenges
– Huge disease burden and health costs
– Poor cognitive form
– Poor contribution to productive labour (WHO, 2009)
Study design
• Quantitative secondary data• Uses cross-sectional panel survey data• Data and Sources : Welfare Monitoring Survey
(2007-2011)– Household Demographics– Food Consumption– Anthropometric measurements– Household wealth status
• Other data and Sources :– Climate parameter data (Rainfall)- Dept. of Met.
Services– Staple food crop production (Maize) – MoAFS
Methodology
• Identify livelihood Zone (Districts) reported to experience adverse climatic conditions in last 5 + years
• Generate evidence for Climate variability in the zone in the 5 reference years (Key to food production)
• Assess food crop production in the zone• Examine households economic profile• Analyze household food consumption patterns and
copping mechanisms to food shortages• Examine nutritional situations among under-five
Children • Conduct a panel data modeling of nutrition based on
above variables
Conceptual frameworkCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY/CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY
Drivers of
Global
Warming
Demographic-Economic-Socio-political-Technological-Cultural & Religious
Climate Variability & Change
-
INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES-Increase in Maximum temperatures on hot days-Increase in minimum temperature on cold days-Increase in annual occurrence on hot days-Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves
GRADUAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION- Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts-Changes in timing, location and rain and snowfall
GREATER WEATHER VARIABILITY-Greater instability in seasonal weather patterns-Changes in start and end of growing seasons
Changes in System Assets-Food production assets-Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure-Agriculturally based livelihood assets-Non-farm livelihood assets-Food preparation assets
Change in food system activities-Producing food-Storing and processing food-Distributing food-Consuming food
Change in components of food security- Food availability-Food accessibility-Food utilization-Food system Stability
Possible Changes in food consumption patterns-Shifts away from grain fed livestock products-Shifts in proportion of locally produced foods in the diet-Increase in consumption of new food items-Reduction in consumption of
Wild food-Reduction in quantities and /or variety of food consumed
Possible changes in Human Health- Changes in calorificsufficiency of diets-Change in nutritional value of diets-Increased incidence of waterborne diseases in flood prone areas-Change in disease vectors and habitats for existing diseases- Emergence of new diseases
Adaptive responses of food systems
Possibility of Migration and Conflict
Change in Nutritional Status
Conceptual Framework (Adapted from FAO livelihood Climate Change) Climate Variability and Household members nutritional status
Climate Variability
(Rainfall)
Household Economic
status(Resources)
Food production
abilities
Nutritional status of
household members
Changes in food components
Food Availability
Changes in food consumption
patterns
Household Demographic
factors
Variables and Indicators
• Climate variability:– Mean deviations from normal ranges rainfall
• Economic Status: – Household Wealth quintiles
• Food Availability – Total quantity of food crops produced in a farming
season / farming year
• Food Consumption patterns: – Number of meals and food items consumed per time
interval (days).
• Nutritional Status: – Proportion of malnourished under-five children
Model Parameters
• Independent Variables– Climate variability
• Summarized mean deviations of rainfall
– Food (food availability)• Total production of staple food crop (maize)
– Food consumption patterns– Household demographics(Size)– Economic status
• Wealth quintile
• Dependent Variable– Children’s nutrition status
Preliminary analysis: Lower Shire Livelihood Zone
(Chikwawa & Nsanje districts)
Rainfall Performance and Maize Production
(Lower Shire Livelihood Zone 2007-2011)
Year 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-2011
Chikwawa 2461.9 2180.1 1143.6 1120.7 1321.3
Nsanje 1013.9 954 875 802 712.1
Source: Department of Meteorological Services, Malawi
Total Annual Rainfall 2005-2011 (mm)
District
2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-2011
Chikwawa 17444 9894 13354 40692
Nsanje 21440 7307 2878 31625
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Statistical Bulletin
Year
Total Maize yearly Production
Annual rainfall and maize production trends, 2007-2011
Annual Rainfall Trends Total annual maize production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Chikwawa
Nsanje
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
20
07
-8
20
08
-9
20
09
-10
20
10
-20
11
Year
Chikwawa
Nsanje
Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households :
Trends
Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households per day in the week
before survey 2007,2008,2009 & 2011
Year District ProductionNumber of meals
1 2 3
2007Chikwawa 21440 1.8 61.1 37.1
Nsanje 17444 4.3 57 38.8
2008 Chikwawa 9894 1.8 74.9 46
Nsanje 7307 2.6 50.7 23.3
2009Chikwawa 13354 3.6 55.3 41
Nsanje 2878 1.9 46 52
2011Chikwawa 40692 4.9 62.5 32.6
Nsanje 31625 1.0 65.7 33
Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households per day:
Observations
• There a corresponding decrease pattern in both food crop production in a year and number of food crop meals the households consumed in the year (Nsanjedistrict in 2008,2009)
• A general pattern of high proportion of staple food meals (2 per day per) per household irrespective of whether food crop production increased or decreased
• There is a possibility of other factors at play
Average household size vs. Under-five nutritional indicators
Average household size vs. Under-five nutritional indicators
Year District Average household
size
Nutritional Status
Stunting Wasting Underweight
2007Chikwawa 5.0 41.6 6.0 20.7
Nsanje 5.2 40.5 16.0 25.5
2008 Chikwawa 5.3 41.6 6.6 20.7
Nsanje 5.5 40.5 16.0 25.5
2009Chikwawa 4.7 49.6 1.8 20.7
Nsanje 4.4 44.4 4.5 19.4
2011Chikwawa 6.4 38.1 3.4 14.9
Nsanje 8.4 58.3 5.4 24.5
Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition
Chikwawa District Nsanje District
0
5 5.34.7
6.4
0
66.6
1.8
3.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2011
Wasting
Averagehousehold size
5.2 5.5
4.4
8.4
16 16
4.55.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2008 2009 2011
Averagehouseholdsize
Wasting
Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition
Chikwawa district Nsanje District
5 5.3 4.76.4
41.6 41.6
49.6
38.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2011
Stunting
Averagehouseholdsize
5.2 5.5 4.48.4
40.5 40.544.4
58.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007200820092011
Averagehouseholdsize
stunting
Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition
Chikwawa District Nsanje District
5 5.3 4.76.4
20.7 20.7 20.7
14.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2011
Averagehouseholdsize
Underweight
5.2 5.54.4
8.4
25.5 25.5
19.4
24.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2011
AverageHouseholdSize
Underweight
Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition : Trend observations
• Almost all under-five nutrition indicators for all the years understudy showed a pattern of change just like yearly changes in average household sizes
• There could be a very close association between household demographics (Mean size) and under-five nutrition indicators
Preliminary conclusions
• Climatic parameter (rainfall) does not show any similar pattern to nutritional indicators
• Demographic factors (household size) appear to have a bearing in nutritional situation
• Although there seemingly is a similar trend on rainfall quantity and food crop (Maize) production, there could be no statistical relationship, hence an indirect link of climatic variables to nutritional outcomes.
• More rigorous statistical analysis to test relationships of variables
Next steps
• Perform statistical test of associations in order to provide evidence for relationship among parameters in the analysis
• Conduct panel regression analysis to model nutrition based on the selected parameters (Climatic –rainfall) demographic and economic factors
• Scale up analysis to all livelihood zones so as to examine parameters at a more broader scale and allow comparability across zones.
End of PresentationThank you for your attention
References
• Codjoe S, Owusu, G, (2011) ‘Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains, Ghana’ Reg Environ Change DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0211-3
• Downing, T. E. (2002). Linking sustainable livelihoods and global climate change in vulnerable food systems. Die Erde., 133:363–378.
• Pittock, B. (2009) Climate Change: The science, impacts and solutions. CSIRO Publishing
• Oreskes, N. (2004) ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 3 December 2004: Vol 306 No. 5702
• IPCC (2001) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Summary for Policy Makers)
• Malberg Dyg P, Joldasov A, Antadjanova, Breda J, (2011) ‘Climate Change and Its Impact on Nutrition Security: Report on assessment of 4 Autonomous Regions in Uzbekistan’
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MEA (2005), ‘Living beyond our means’: Natural Assets and Human Well being, Statement from the board.
• McMachael, et al., ‘Climate and Human Health-Risks and Responses. WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
• Malawi Government (2012) Economic Recovery Plan, Ministry of Finance, Lilongwe Malawi
• UNDP (2012) African Human Development Report 2012 :Towards a Food Secure Future, United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Africa (RBA)1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA