evolution and trends for the duty free & travel retail industry alain maingreaud managing...
TRANSCRIPT
Evolution and trends
for the duty free & travel retail industry
————— Alain MaingreaudManaging Director, TFWA
Introduction to TFWA———
The world today: from west to east———
Global trends in travel & aviation———
TFWA experience & sentiments for the industry
Introductionto TFWA
———
Mission ———
“to enable and empower the Duty Free and Travel Retail
industry by providing the opportunities and the tools for brand and market growth.”
TFWA World Exhibition over 5,600 visitors
———
TFWA ASIA PACIFIC & GATE ONE2ONE 2,000 visitors200 exhibitors1,500 brands
———
Conferences & Workshops
The world todayfrom west to east
———
“Bank of England forecasts 'choppy' economic recovery”
BBC News, 11 August 2010
“Joy, pain and double dips”The Economist, 12 August 2010
“Hello America. China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms”
The Economist, 16 August 2010
E7 to Catch G7 by 2019?E7 = China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey
Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
GD
P a
t P
PP
s (c
on
stan
t 20
08 I$
)
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
Convergence OvertakingCatch-up
Source: AT Kearney, ‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2009
Emerging retail markets ———
“…reliance on developing countries for future growth is no longer a ‘nice-
to-have,’ but is a necessity.”
Emerging retail markets
Source: AT Kearney,‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2010
Global trendsin travel & aviation
———
“Multi-spend recovery kick started by developing economies”
Euromonitor International
“Asian Markets Adding Business Travel Spend at Four Times the U.S. Rate”
National Business Travel Association
Global business travel spend
% Change2009 - 2010
% Change2010-2014
United States 2.5 %
2.4 %
China 16.3 % 12.3 %
Japan 6.7 % 2.1 %United Kingdom -0.6 % 8.2 %
France -1.0 % 4.7 %
Italy -2.6 % 4.1 %
Germany -1.0 % 3.8 %
South Korea 21.2 % 7.2 %
Brazil 19.8 % 3.5 %Spain -4.0 % 4.2 %
Source: NBTA , August 2010
“Asia Pacific takes top spot as traffic recovers strongly in 2010. North America slides to third”
Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
Asia Pacific + 11.5%
Europe - 7.3%
North America - 7.7%
Latin America + 6.9%
Africa + 1.8%
Middle East + 18.4%
World - 0.7%
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & ACI
Comparative passenger numbers by regionJune 2010 vs June 2008 (year-to-date)
% change YTDJune 2008 > June 2010
Region
Source: IATA
Premium traffic growth by ticket type:Jan-2007 to Jun-2010
(year on year % change)
Source: IATA
Strong growthin Latin America premium travel
TFWA experience & sentiments
for the industry
———
“Cautiously optimistic”IATA
Asia : + 88 %Middle East : + 112 %
Optimistic, with reason
NAM: - 8%
LAC: - 0,5% *
* ACI 2009 figuresSource: Generation
The global industry in 2009
Source: Generation
Year to date in Latin America
Americas + 22,4%
Latin America + 28%
North America + 16%
World + 16.1%
% change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009
Region
Source: Generation
Latin America + 28%
Asia Pacific + 26.3%
Middle east + 18.4%
Africa + 13.6%
North America + 16%
Europe + 4.4%
World + 16.1%
Year to date in Latin America% change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009
Region
The future as we see it…
