EVMS Training Snippet Library: Predictive

Analysis

Office of Acquisition and Project Management (APM) MA-60

U. S. Department of Energy

July 2014

Achieving Management and Operational Excellence

Purpose of Predictive Analysis

• Provide DOE Project Manager with consistent and timely insight to project status

• Verification of the project’s cost and schedule status • Authentication of the project’s EAC and ECD

Page 2

Risks Associated with the CPI

• Risks– Misapplied criteria for awarding fee – Over-emphasized by higher levels management– Manipulated EVMS data

• Solution– Examine other metrics as well; even (especially) when CPI is

nearly perfect at 1.0

Page 3

Percent Complete/Spent

BCWPCUMBAC X 100 = Percent Complete

ACWPCUMEAC X 100 = Percent Spent

Page 4

Staffing Profile

• Timing is everything• Resources without commitments invite trouble• Having the right skills available at the right time is key

Page 5

Staffing Profile Curve

Bow Wave #1 Bow

Wave #2

12 Months: 3 Past, 9 Future

Page 6

Earned Schedule

• SPI(t) = Earned Schedule / Actual Duration• Forecasted Duration = Baseline Duration/SPI(t)• SPI(t) v. SPI

– Pros:• Remains predictive throughout life of project• Time versus dollars

– Cons:• Skewed when non-critical future tasks are completed early or

when LOE effort is included in the calculation

Page 7

Earned Schedule

Start TimeNow

BaselineFinish

PlannedValue Earned

Value

ActualDuration

(AD)Earned

Schedule

Forecasted DurationSPI(t) = 7/11 = .6420 Mos/.64 = 31.3

20 Months11 Months7 Months

31.3 Months

Page 8

PARSII Earned Schedule Report

0.001.002.003.004.00

06/30/2013 07/31/2013 08/31/2013 09/30/2013 10/31/2013 11/30/2013

Incremental SPI(t) Incremental SPI

0.930.940.950.960.970.98

06/30/2013 07/31/2013 08/31/2013 09/30/2013 10/31/2013 11/30/2013

Cumulative SPI(t) Cumulative SPI

Page 9

Baseline Execution Index (BEI)

BEI =Completed TasksBaseline Count

Page 10

PARSII Schedule Baseline Execution Index Report, Summary Tab

Baseline CurrentShould Have

Completed

Baselined Completed Planned Actual

Actual less Accelerated

14287 17023 13483 14093 12769 12774 0.91 0.91 98.64% 89.37% 89.41%* Target BEI is >= 0.95. Any value below 0.95 is considered failure on the assessment scale.

Total # of Completed Activities

Total Count % of Baseline CompletedBEI

# of "Should Have

Completed"

# of "Should Have

Completed" Actually

Completed

# of All Baselined Activties

Completed

120001250013000135001400014500

Total # ofCompletedActivities

# of "Should HaveCompleted"

# of "Should HaveCompleted"

ActuallyCompleted

# of All BaselinedActivties

Completed

Page 11

PARSII Schedule Baseline Execution Index Report, Trend Tab

Dec 2012

Jan 2013

Feb 2013

Mar 2013

Apr 2013

May 2013

Jun 2013

Jul 2013

Aug 2013

Sep 2013

Oct 2013

Nov 2013

BEI (All Baselined) 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91

BEI (BEF < Status) 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91

* Target BEI is >= 0.95. Any value below 0.95 is considered failure on the assessment scale.

0.860.880.900.920.940.960.981.00

Dec2012

Jan2013

Feb2013

Mar2013

Apr2013

May2013

Jun2013

Jul2013

Aug2013

Sep2013

Oct2013

Nov2013

BEI Trend

Page 12

Comparison of SPI to BEI

• Advantage of SPI over BEI – SPI is more sensitive than BEI

• Advantages of BEI over SPI– BEI is a more objective metric than SPI – SPI may be skewed due to inclusion of LOE

• Similar– Derived from historical data– Most valuable when used prior to 70-80% completion–Value:

> 1.0 Favorable= 1.0 On Track< 1.0 Unfavorable

Page 13

Change in Float

• Total Project Float is a leading indicator of schedule performance

• Looking at the change in float between periods indicates potential schedule concerns

• Float is not subject to trends in SPI and CPI but rather trends in schedule performance of predecessors and requirements of successors in the schedule

Page 14

Comparison of TCPI to CPI

• To Complete Performance Index –Calculates future efficiencies based on past performance to

achieve EAC or the BAC

–TCPIEAC or TCPIBAC–A useful metric at all WBS levels

• IEACs–A prediction of the final EAC model

–Normally calculated at the total project level

–Best viewed as a range

• TCPI and IEACs are good indicators of EAC reasonableness

Page 15

Comparing Past to Future Page 16

CPI vs. TCPI (PMB Level)

06/23/13 07/21/13 08/25/13 09/30/13 10/27/13 11/24/13TCPi to EAC 0.99 1.03 1.09 1.68 1.68 1.85TCPI to BAC -15.08 -7.06 -4.58 -3.01 -2.56 -2.06CPi Cum 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95CPi Current 0.42 0.62 0.74 0.41 0.54 0.99

-16.00

-14.00

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

Page 17

Independent EACs

• Statistical EACs provide insight into EAC trends and the validity of the EAC.

• There are many defined in literature, the most common are:–Formula 1: BAC/CPIcum

–Formula 2: ACWPcum + (BAC-BCWPcum)/(SPI*CPI)

–Formula 3: ACWPcum + (BAC-BCWPcum)/CPI3

– Recall: (BAC – BCWP) = BCWR or Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining

Page 18

Management Reserve Trends

• Management Reserve Remaining(Original MR - Current MR) / Original MR = % MR Used

Page 19

Management Reserve Trends (cont.)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cum CV

Is MR applied to effectively mask the cum CV?

MR Balance v. CV, VAC, & EAC Trends Report; select MR v. CV tab

ManagementReserve

Page 20

Schedule Margin

• Schedule Margin Remaining (Planned Schedule Margin - Actual Schedule Margin) / Planned Schedule Margin = % Schedule Margin Used

40

30

20

10

0

Page 21

Schedule Health Metrics

• Schedule Health Metrics covered in Snippets 3.2 and 5.3

– Missing Logic

– Leads

– Lag

– Relationship Types

– Hard Constraints

– Float: High Float and Negative Float

– High Duration

– Invalid Dates: Forecast and Actual

– Missing Resources

Page 22

Predictive Analysis Summary

• Always check other indices and trends – don’t rely solely on SPI and CPI

• Indices to consider:– Percent Complete and Percent Spent– Staffing Profiles– Earned Schedule– Baseline Execution Index– Changes in schedule float– To Complete Performance Index– Independent Estimates at Completion– Management Reserve – Schedule Margin Reserves

Page 23

DOE OAPM EVM Home Page

http://energy.gov/management/office-management/operational-management/project-management/earned-value-management

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