Evidence informed partnership-based climate change planning in Peel Region

Mark Pajot, BA, BSc, MES, EIDM

Advisor, Office of Climate Change

Corporate Service

Region of Peel

Friday October 21, 2016

Climate Change in Muskoka:

A Workshop on Extreme Weather

and Emergency Management.

Outline

• Policy Drivers

• Peel Region Strategic Priorities

• Provincial Action Plan and Coordination

• Peel Climate Change Strategy and Partnership

• Climate Change Planning Approach

• Assessing vulnerability to climate change

• Case Study - Natural Systems

• Key takeaways

Region of Peel

1257 Sq. Kilometres 3 Municipalities

City of Mississauga City of Brampton Town of Caledon

Located in GTA At 1.45 million Peel Region

has second largest population in Ontario

Climate Change Policy Drivers

Vancouver declaration signed by provinces and territories. Federal Budget proposes funding to transition to “clean economy”. Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change to be released in the fall 2016

Paris agreement signed at COP 21 by 195 Countries nations to keep global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius

Ontario releases Climate Change Strategy, Cap and Trade program, Action Plan, and Coordinated Plan.

Peel Climate Change Strategy was launched in 2011. New Strategic Plan names climate change a Term of Council Priority.

Conservation Authorities in Peel are only ones in Ontario with special levy to address climate change .

Municipalities have released environmental /climate change action plans.

Peel Region Strategic Plan (2015-2035)

Ontario Climate Change Action Plan

Land use planning

“Empower municipalities to set Green Development standards in areas other than building construction. Government intends to consult and propose amendments to the Planning Act to make climate change a provincial interest, and make climate change mitigation and adaptation mandatory in official plans.”

Buildings sector

Green Bank

Proposed Challenge Fund or Program

Land Use Policy Direction on Climate Change

Principles Integrate climate change considerations into planning and managing growth to transition towards net-zero communities, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and plan more resilientInfrastructure.

Growth Plan

Climate ChangeUpper- and single-tier municipalities will develop policies in their official plans to identify actions that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change adaptation goals, aligned with the Ontario Climate Change Strategy, 2015 and Action Plan.

Policies for Infrastructure to Support Growth

Protecting What is Valuable

A Culture of Conservation

Peel Climate Change Strategy

The Peel Climate Change Strategy was adopted by Regional Council on June 23, 2011

Partners have been attempting to achieve six goals by implementing 38 actions outlined in the Strategy

Aiming to: 1. Strengthen the Partnership2. Reduce Community Vulnerability 3. Reduce Community Greenhouse Gases

Partners:

Peel’s Partnership is Unique

Evidence Informed Approach to Climate Change Planning

Transform

Inform

Form

What How

7. Implement new or update existing policy and programs

New or revised Policy / Programs

6. Discuss solutions

5. Communicate the problem

Propose new or promote existing policy /programs

Sources of Emissions and Local Impacts

4. Gather Evidence

3. Apply Methods

2. Create Accountability

1. Set Direction

GHG inventoryVulnerability assessments

Planning frameworks

Form governance

Adopt Strategy

2011

Planning Methods Adopted

ICLEI, 2011, Changing Climate, Changing Communities http://www.icleicanada.org/images/icleicanada/pdfs/GuideWorkbookInfoAnnexes_WebsiteCombo.pdf

Adaptation (ICLEI)

Mitigation (PCP)

Research Results - Sources of Community Emissions

64%

28%

5%2% 1%

% GHG Community CO2 by Sector in Peel (2006)

Building Energy

Transportation

Industry

Waste

Agriculture

Assessment Review Process

Public

HealthEconomy

Research Results - Climate Trends and Futures (RSI)

• Climate Trends

• Public Health

• Agriculture

• Community Assets

• Natural Systems

• Infrastructure

• Economy

Synthesis Report

Assessments

Evidence gathered through Vulnerability Assessments

Research Results: Technical Reports and Synthesis

Community Services and Assets Vulnerability

Cooksville Creek (Infrastructure) Vulnerability

Natural Systems Vulnerability

Terrestrial System Cumulative Vulnerability

• A largely qualitative vulnerability assessment of

natural systems, and key ecosystem services, to

climate change within Peel Region.

• Quantification of current and future vulnerabilities for

two case studies : groundwater discharge and stream

temperature.

• Management Considerations for effective

interventions to reduce vulnerabilities.

Scope of Assessment

Methodology

A Practitioner’s Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Ontario’s Ecosystems (Gleeson et al. 2011)

Peel – Climate Risk Assessment Framework and Tool (TRCA et al. 2014)

• Core Advisory Team

• Stakeholder Engagement

• Subject Matter Experts

• Literature Review

• Climate Scenario RCP8.5 to 2050s

• GIS Analysis

• Modelling Case Studies

Terrestrial System

Findings

Additive Terrestrial

Vulnerability:

Current: 55% of Peel’s

terrestrial system is highly

vulnerable, which is mostly in

the southern half of the region.

Future: Increasing trend

Increasing Future

Vulnerability

Terrestrial System Additive Vulnerability

Characterization

Key Themes

SubwatershedIntensification of Urban Heat Island

WatercourseWater temperatures are currently warming above thermal targets and are likely to increase

Conservation AreaIncreased primary production (algal blooms)

Quantitative Analysis for droughtFurther reduction in baseflow to stream reaches that currently come close to or dip below minimum summer low flow thresholds

Focal Area Storylines

Management Considerations

Management Consideration Rationale

Increase (and maintain) the Connectivity of Terrestrial Areas and Aquatic Systems in the region

Ecosystem connectivity is identified as one of the most important adaptation options for climate change: connectivity of natural systems will become even more vital for the healthy movement (and refuge) of species under climate change.

Protect and Conserve Wetlands; specifically focusing on water management

Stronger focus should be given on water management that integrates the needs of more vulnerable (and important) wetlands identified in this assessment. Continue to advance the science on wetland water balance and apply the evidence as part of adaptation measures to address increasing air temperatures (and drought)

Updating Monitoring of Natural Systems to Track Trends in Resilience

Increase follow up on adaptation actions based on monitoring key performance indicators (i.e. monitoring should inform management strategies, policies, priorities, etc.)

15+ considerations provided for ecosystem managers

Table summarizes a few examples:

Public Health Vulnerability

increased likelihood of morbidity and mortality from:

– Higher number and frequency of extreme heat events

– Worsening outdoor air quality

– More extreme weather events

– Increased food and water-borne contamination

– Increased incidence of vector-borne disease

Synthesis Report - Process

Vulnerability Assessments Stakeholder Consultation

Synthesis Report – Key Vulnerabilities

Key Take A Ways

• Assessing climate change impacts should be comprehensive in scope and take a long view to minimize unforeseen unintended consequences

• Planning is Partnership is the most effective way to research and consider solutions

• Adopt planning frameworks and set milestone planning targets• Frame the problem as an opportunity to enhance resiliency (build capacity /

strengthen partnership) rather than as a threat to be managed. • Present complex information in a visually appealing and accessible way.• Be open and transparent • Accept the principle of subsidiarity and lead solutions