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Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About eBook Pricing But Your Legal Department Was Afraid To Ask The First and Probably Last Tech Forum Presentation by: Ryan James O’Sullivan of Rakuten Kobo

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Page 1: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About eBook Pricing But Your Legal Department Was Afraid To Ask

The First and Probably Last Tech Forum Presentation by:Ryan James O’Sullivan of Rakuten Kobo

Page 2: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

RJO rynet ryanosull

About Me Hi, I’m Ryan James O’Sullivan I work for Rakuten Kobo, your favouirte eBook retailer (RIGHT?) I’m currently the Director of Content Analytics responsible for

Pricing, Sales & Promotions Optimization and Publisher Analytics

Previously the Director of Online Supply Chain @ Indigo I’ve been selling books in some way shape or form for 18 years I’m a bit of a geek OK, I’M A LOT OF A GEEK. Like I will crush you in Mario Kart,

Settlers of Catan and League of Legends right now Also a huge sports fan! Play and watch baseball (go Jays!), and

soccer (go United!)

[email protected]

Page 3: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Goal for TodayAs we continue to transition to an agency price model I want to share Kobo’s 6 years of experience in pricing eBooks with publishers

I want you all to walk away from here today as pricing experts

Page 4: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Topics Microeconomics 101 Price and the Customer Bucking the Life Cycle Other Learnings

Page 5: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

I hope you enjoyed the humour of my introduction because it was all a distraction tactic as going forward this presentation is going to be an economics primer and contain lots of graphs and stuff

But we had fun there right?

Page 6: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

One simple questionWhat is the optimal price for my book?

Page 7: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Microeconomics 101*

* With apologies to any actual economists in the room

Page 8: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

What is Price?“Price is the amount of money that has to be paid to acquire a given product. Insofar as the amount people are prepared to pay for a product represents its value.”- Encyclopedia Britannica

Page 9: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

What is a Demand Curve?

Page 10: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Elasticity“Price Elasticity of Demand is a measure used in economics to the show responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price”Wikipedia

Page 11: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Elasticity and the Demand Curve

Page 12: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Elasticity and the Demand Curve

Image courtesy of Economics Tuition Singapore

Page 13: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Profit Motive & Profit Maximization“The Profit Motive is the motivation of firms that operate so as to maximize their profits. Mainstream microeconomic theory posits that the ultimate goal of a business is to make money”Wikipedia

“Profit Maximization is the process by which a firm determines the price and output level that returns the greatest profit”Wikipedia

Page 14: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Optimal Price Example

Page 15: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Optimal Price Example

Page 16: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Optimal Price Example

Opt

imal

Pro

fit

Page 17: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

What is the Optimal Price?The Optimal Price is the price where you will make the most the most long term revenue

OR

Optimal Price is the point on the demand curve where Units * Price is greatest

Page 18: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Well that was easy…

Page 19: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

But how?

Page 20: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

That was a lot… so here’s the bat flip (my happy place)

Page 21: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Or maybe you like kittens…

Page 22: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Or my team is partial to otters

Page 23: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Price and the Customer

Page 24: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Usually We Talk About Price Like This

Page 25: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Or We Talk About Genres…

Page 26: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Price Actually Looks Like This

Page 27: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Jill’s Purchasing Habits

Page 28: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Jill’s Price Preference by Genre

Page 29: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Jill’s Self Pub Preference

Page 30: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Jill’s Publishing Age Preference

Page 31: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Some things we learn from Jill… She’s a value oriented customer, until she’s not She buys self pub, but only when they are cheap. Does she

have a content preference or is she being under served by traditionally published works in her preferred price point?

There are a set group of authors she will pay virtually any price for

Page 32: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

But more importantly…The price has to be oriented to the potential customer of your book, and you need to utilize a diverse range of data points to segment your customers.

Page 33: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Segmenting Your Customers

Page 34: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Segmentation Characteristics Genre Preference Price Preference Promotional Preference Competitive Risk Publication Age Preference And on and on…

Page 35: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

So Instead of This…

Page 36: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

We Look at This…

* Romance Segmented Users

Page 37: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

And we learn some interesting things…

* Romance Segmented Users

Non Existent

Page 38: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Self pub owns the romance value customer

Page 39: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Price and the CustomerWhen pricing the book do not think about your comparable book, think of your customer.

Page 40: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Joey Bats

Page 41: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Kittens

Page 42: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Otters

Page 43: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Bucking the Life Cycle

Page 44: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

WarningThe following slides may depress you if you are in any way shape or form involved in the creation, sales or distribution of books

Page 45: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Books on the whole have 3 or 4 potential sales outcomes over time

Page 46: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Meet your book’s fate…

Slope Hill Stairs

Page 47: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan
Page 48: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Remember Elasticity?

Page 49: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Elasticity of Demand for eBooks

Page 50: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

All things being equal eBooks are highly inelastic, even more so when in the backlist

Page 51: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan
Page 52: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

BUT

Page 53: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

There’s hope – Visibility & Promotions

Page 54: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

The key is experimentation

Page 55: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Example 1 – Peak Attention Pop

800% Increase over First

Week$1 Price

Drop

800% increase in sales over week 1 (traditional peak)44.% increase in LTV of book vs previous book from author150% increase in readership vs previous book from author

Page 56: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Example 2 – Active Experimentation

16 price drop events through 52 weeks24% incremental net sales driven by those events

Page 57: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

You want to slow the slope

>

Page 58: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Conversion is King

Page 59: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Conversion is King

Conversion =

Views /

Purchases

Page 60: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Views

Page 61: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Purchase

Page 62: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Bucking the Life CyclePrice is a single point in time.

A robust Pricing Strategy requires many prices with continual experimentation and adjustment

Page 63: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Joey Bats

Page 64: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Kittens

Page 65: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Otters

Page 66: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Other Learnings

Page 67: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Price Ceilings are Real

Page 68: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Retailers Discount For a Reason

Page 69: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Sales Data Isn’t Enough

Page 70: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

So what is the optimal price? Maximizes long term revenue. Oriented to the potential customer segment of your book Any given Price should be part of a robust Pricing Strategy

that continually experiments and adjusts

Page 71: Everything You Wanted to Ask a Retailer About Pricing But Your Legal Department was Afraid to Ask - Tech Forum 2016 - Ryan James O'Sullivan

Thank you