evero ze - rushlightevents.com€¦ · the economist, “the world in 2017”, mar 2017 slide title...
TRANSCRIPT
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evero
ze Regulation and Electricity Market
Dynamics Colin Morgan 22nd March 2017
experts | evolving | energy
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2
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Market drivers and regulatory barriers
3
1 CO2
2 Industrial strategy
3 Electricity system stability
4 Security of supply
5 Consents
6 Economics
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1987 FGD of coal, Sizewell B [Acid rain, CEGB]
1997 CCGT’s, Life extension of AGR’s [Economics]
2007 Onshore and offshore wind [CO2]
2017 Onshore & offshore wind, PV, Flexibility services [CO2]
2027? Onshore & offshore wind, PV, Hinckley, Flexibility services [Economics mostly]
Career perspective
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Life after the RO
What we did
5
1 CO2
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Going very well…
6
BEIS, “UPDATED ENERGY AND EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS 2016”, March 2017
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Drilling down…
7
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Fuel parity for renewables
8
BEIS, “ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS”, Nov 2016
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And EV shifting the goalposts…
9
??
Transport All energy
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Smarter Planning
Transform the Grid
Revenue Revolution
10
2 Industrial strategy
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Hot Jobs
11
The Economist, “The World in 2017”, Mar 2017
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Slide title
Slide title
Slide title
12
3 Electricity system stability
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Keeping the lights on (Part 1)
13
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Life after the RO
What we did
14
4 Security of supply
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Keeping the lights on (Part 2)
15 National Grid, “T-4 CAPACITY MARKET AUCTION FOR 2020/21”
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Smarter Planning
Transform the Grid
Revenue Revolution
16
5 Consents
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Onshore wind - the first victim of Brexit
17
England Effectively blocked (possibly except community schemes)
Scotland Scottish Energy Strategy
Wales & NI Somewhere in between
Offshore wind Progressing – temporarily impeded in Scotland
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Slide title
Slide title
Slide title
18
6 Economics
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Objective #1
19
Potentially 2 more ‘less-established’ CFD rounds by 2020 securing projects out to 2025
Subsidy-free ‘established’ CFD, agnostic to technology - silence recently
Does policy reflect the interactive nature of industry’s response to policy (scale and competition)?
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Slide title
Slide title
Slide title
20
7 Time for a new approach
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Driven by …
22
Stacke
d
revenu
e
Multiple
offtakers
Price
setting
RIIO
DSO’s emerging
Defer network spend
Procure reactive
power, synthetic inertia
and voltage support
Unconventional offtake
Private wires
Sleeving
CSR play – long-term
price certainty
Fuel play
Crashing costs
Falling CAPEX and
OPEX / MWh
(but competing with
solar PV)
FILTER Wheat from chaff
COMPETE New financing models
needed to secure best
projects in competitive equity
markets
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