EVERGLADES CONNECTIVITY THROUGH THE EYES OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ESTUARIES

Susan K. Kemp – USACE Richard Alleman (Ret.) – SFWMD Patrick A. Pitts – FWS Laura Brandt – FWS David A. Rudnick – NPS-ENP Joan Browder – NOAA-NMFS Christopher Kelble – NOAA-AOML Christopher Madden – SFWMD

SCS Planning Tools

• Florida Bay • Flow • Salinity • Seagrass • Pink Shrimp • Juvenile Sea Trout • Juvenile Crocodile

• Biscayne Bay • Flow

Multi-Linear Regressions (MLR)

• Foundation for Florida Bay salinity performance measure

• Patrick Pitts presentation • Thursday @ 4:20pm (Session 83)

• Input: upland stage, winds

• Output: salinity

FWO = Future Without

ECB = Existing Conditions Base

NSM = Natural Systems Model

Alt1-4 = Alternative(s) 1-4

195,000 to 262,000 ac-ft/yr increase over FWO

Flows to Florida Bay

2,000 to 3,000 ac-ft/yr increase over FWO

T27

Ove

rlan

d Fl

ow

T23A

Ove

rlan

d Fl

ow

Seagrass

• Input: salinity, temperature, nitrogen, phosphorus

• Output: biomass (g/m2) and species composition for three Florida Bay seagrass species

Seagrass

Little Madeira Bay/Taylor River

Alt4

ECB

NSM

Time

Pink Shrimp

• Input: salinity, temperature, initial recruitment

• Output: potential harvest (kg)

Pink Shrimp

Juvenile Seatrout

• Input: turbidity, temperature, salinity, and spatial coverage and density of three species of seagrass

• Output: area of habitat suitable for juvenile spotted seatrout

Juvenile Seatrout Mean Optimal Habitat Area

ALT1 ALT2 ALT4 ALT3 ECB FWO NSM

Juvenile Seatrout

ALT1 ALT2 ALT3 ALT4

Mean % Increase Toward Target

Juvenile Crocodile

• Input: numeric score based on salinity

• Output: HSI score

Juvenile Crocodile

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.14

Diffe

renc

e fr

om F

WO

(Aug

-Dec

Avg

)Alt 1 Difference from FWO Alt 2 Difference from FWO

Alt 3 Difference from FWO Alt 4 Difference from FWO

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

E W

All Years

Alt1

Alt3 Alt4

Alt2

Juvenile Crocodile

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

E W Dry Year (1989)

Alt1

Alt3 Alt4 Alt2

Biscayne Bay Coastal Structure Flows Structure FWO ALT1 ALT2 ALT3 ALT4 ALT4R ALT4R1 ALT4R2

North

Central

South Central

* * * * * * * *

South

Compared to the base condition (ECB). Green=increased flows. White=less than 1% mean decrease. Yellow=1% to less than 5% mean decrease. Red=5% to less than 10% mean decrease. Purple= 10% or greater mean decrease. *Simulation not valid.

Biscayne Bay Coastal Structure Flows

Conclusions

• Sensitivity

• Connectivity

• Any more water is good

• We still need more…at the right time

Contacts

Susan Kemp – skemp@usgs.gov

Southern Coastal Systems Regional Coordinators Stacie Auvenshine – Stacie.J.Auvenshine@usace.army.mil Patrick Pitts – Patrick_Pitts@fws.gov David Rudnick – David_Rudnick@nps.gov

Planning Tools Laura Brandt (crocodile) – Laura_Brandt@fws.gov Joan Browder (pink shrimp) – Joan.Browder@noaa.gov Christopher Kelble (seatrout) – chris.kelble@noaa.gov Christopher Madden (seagrass) – cmadden@sfwmd.gov Frank Marshall (salinity) - clfinc@earthlink.net

www.evergladesplan.org