evdm-13 executive summary - navigant · pdf fileelectric traction – both full electric...

David Alexander

Senior Research Analyst

John Gartner

Research Director

Executive Summary: Electric Vehicle Drive Motors Electric Traction Motors for Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Light Duty Vehicles: Market Analysis and Forecasts

NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Navigant Research at [email protected].

Published 1Q 2013

RESEARCH REPORT

RESEARCH REPORT

Electric Vehicle Drive Motors

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Electric Drive Motors for Automotive Applications

Electric motors have an increasingly important role to play in the modern automobile. As electric traction – both full electric drive and electric motor assist in a hybrid drive – becomes more widespread, the use of electric motors for ancillary roles will also increase. The number of electric motors in use is rapidly expanding due to a growing number of auto makers offering more hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles.

The electric motor in a drivetrain is part of a system that consists of an energy source (typically a battery pack), a controller (which usually includes some power electronics), and the motor drive itself (which may drive the wheels directly or through a gearbox). Many of the electric vehicles (EVs) on the road today are adapted from conventional vehicles that have been optimized for the internal combustion engine (ICE). This approach makes economic sense for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that have already established production facilities, but it does not make the best use of the potential of the electric drive.

Automakers put electric drivetrains into existing vehicle designs because they rely on conventional powertrains for the majority of sales and can reduce the time to market by using existing components and chassis.

Another recent trend is rather than integrating the electric motor into the conventional drivetrain, OEMs are designing vehicles to power one pair of wheels from the ICE and the other pair from an electric motor. Conventional vehicles can then be given four-wheel drive (4WD) and the option of an all-electric mode (provided the battery capacity is big enough).

Note that in this report, Navigant Research focuses on the electric traction motor for light duty vehicles only. Two-wheel transport, neighborhood electric vehicles (NEVs) – e.g., golf carts – and heavy duty trucks are covered in separate reports.

1.2 Market Issues

The market for electric traction motors is determined by the demand for electric and electrically assisted vehicles, which varies across the three major automotive market regions in the world (North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific). While sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasing, the growth is slow and steady rather than exponential. Cost remains the main barrier in the short term, with the battery pack being by far the most expensive component.

Other factors will play a part in the growth of the market over the forecast period (2013-2020) and beyond. Education of the buying public about the benefits of EVs is an ongoing task, as is the installation of public charging infrastructure. If charging stations become widely available where people tend to park, it might be possible to reduce the size of the battery pack and



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introduce a city car with a shorter range that would be more affordable. The present expectation of many car buyers is that the EV should have a similar range to the vehicles they are already used to driving. Thus, hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will remain more popular in the short term.

Legislation to limit emissions in city centers may prove to be a big boost to the EV market. So far, some benefit has come from efforts to reduce congestion. Yet, as costs come down in the long term, city centers could become congested with electric cars. Carsharing schemes, however, offer the means to reduce the need for parking space. They also allow manufacturers to give buyers the option to test drive an EV without having to make a major investment.

1.3 Technology Issues

While battery technology is the major contributor to the cost of vehicle electrification, the motor and controller represent a significant part of the picture. The motor is the easily identified additional component. For most drive systems, though, the controller (which includes power electronics and inverter) has a similar cost. Some manufacturers interviewed for this report estimated the cost ratio of the motor to controller to be 50:50 and some said 60:40, but it is very difficult to estimate costs in the present market because volumes are still relatively low.

Regardless, there is plenty of scope for cost reductions as volumes increase. Automated production processes will be one improvement when sales volumes increase from a few hundred to tens of thousands annually, and the component costs of power electronics modules will also decline. Another important factor to consider is the software that goes into the controllers, which has the potential to drop in cost per unit by one or two orders of magnitude.

Hobbyists have used the humble direct current (DC) motor with simple speed controls for EV conversions for years. However, OEMs have favored the alternating current (AC) motor since the mid-1990s, when General Motors (GM) introduced the EV1. DC motors with brushes that could wear out have been a non-starter for production vehicles, and the higher power and torque from the AC components was a bonus. Yet, existing motors for other industrial applications have not met the exacting standards of automotive production. Although numerous new companies have sprung up to develop interesting AC motor alternatives that could disrupt the industry in the future, almost all of the OEMs have chosen to invest in producing their own motor hardware and are relying on permanent magnet or AC induction motor designs.



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1.4 Forecast Highlights

Chart 1.1, which shows the value of the global EV drive motor market, is segmented into the six major automotive regions: North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa. Total market revenue will grow from just less than $1 billion in 2013 to over $2.8 billion in 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6%.

The Eastern European and Latin American markets are expected to remain small in terms of EV drive motor revenue over the forecast period. Meanwhile, the Middle East & Africa will show steady growth, but will still remain a fraction of the value of any of the big three – North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific.

Revenue in North America will not grow as fast as the other two major regions because the vehicle mix will continue to be led by hybrid rather than plug-in or battery electric vehicles. Hybrid technology offers the North American consumer better fuel economy, but retains the ability to handle frequent long trips. In addition, the technology can be added to the larger type of vehicle that is popular in North America. The larger, more expensive motors required for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will see greater demand in Western Europe and Asia Pacific.

Chart 1.1 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020

(Source: Navigant Research)

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

($ M

illio

ns)

North AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAsia PacificLatin AmericaMiddle East & Africa


©2013 Navigant Consult ing, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express writ ten permission of Navigant Consult ing, Inc.

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Section 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Electric Drive Motors for Automotive Applications ................................................................................. 1

1.2 Market Issues ..................................................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Technology Issues .............................................................................................................................. 2

1.4 Forecast Highlights ............................................................................................................................. 3

Section 2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 4

Market Issues .................................................................................................................................................... 4

2.1 Automotive Market for Electric Drive Motors ......................................................................................... 4

2.2 Electric Vehicle Market Overview ........................................................................................................ 4

2.2.1 Light Duty Vehicle Model Plans ..................................................................................................... 7

2.2.2 Conversion Market ....................................................................................................................... 10

2.3 Cost .................................................................................................................................................. 10

2.4 Environment and Legislation .............................................................................................................. 11

Section 3 .......................................................................................................................................................... 14

Technology Issues ........................................................................................................................................... 14

3.1 Electric Drive Motor ........................................................................................................................... 14

3.1.1 DC Motors ................................................................................................................................... 15

3.1.2 AC Induction ............................................................................................................................... 15

3.1.3 Permanent Magnet AC ................................................................................................................. 16

3.1.4 Switched Reluctance ................................................................................................................... 16

3.1.5 Axial Flux Motors ......................................................................................................................... 16

3.2 Power Rating ..................................................................................................................................... 17



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3.3 Controller and Power Electronics ........................................................................................................ 17

3.4 Safety ............................................................................................................................................... 18

3.5 Configuration Philosophy ................................................................................................................... 18

Section 4 .......................................................................................................................................................... 19

Key Industry Players ........................................................................................................................................ 19

4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 19

4.2 Electric Motor and Controller Suppliers ............................................................................................... 19

4.2.1 AC Kinetics ................................................................................................................................. 19

4.2.2 AC Propulsion ............................................................................................................................. 20

4.2.3 BRUSA Elektronik AG .................................................................................................................. 20

4.2.4 GKN Driveline ............................................................................................................................. 21

4.2.5 KLD Energy Technologies ............................................................................................................ 22

4.2.6 Magna International ..................................................................................................................... 23

4.2.7 Magnomatics ............................................................................................................................... 23

4.2.8 Sevcon ........................................................................................................................................ 24

4.2.9 TM4 ............................................................................................................................................ 24

4.3 Vehicle OEMs .................................................................................................................................... 25

4.3.1 BMW ........................................................................................................................................... 25

4.3.2 Daimler AG ................................................................................................................................. 25

4.3.3 ECOmove .................................................................................................................................... 26

4.3.4 Ford Motor Co. ............................................................................................................................ 26

4.3.5 General Motors ............................................................................................................................ 27

4.3.6 Mitsubishi Motors ........................................................................................................................ 27

4.3.7 Nissan Motors ............................................................................................................................. 27

4.3.8 Renault ....................................................................................................................................... 28



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4.3.9 Tesla Motors ............................................................................................................................... 28

4.3.10 Toyota Motor Corp. ...................................................................................................................... 29

4.3.11 VIA Motors .................................................................................................................................. 29

4.3.12 Volkswagen ................................................................................................................................. 29

4.3.13 Volvo .......................................................................................................................................... 29

4.4 Other Industry Participants ................................................................................................................. 30

4.4.1 Advanced Motors and Drives ........................................................................................................ 30

4.4.2 Continental AG ............................................................................................................................ 30

4.4.3 Controlled Power Technologies .................................................................................................... 30

4.4.4 Delta Electronics ......................................................................................................................... 31

4.4.5 EM-motive GmbH ........................................................................................................................ 31

4.4.6 Fukuta Motors ............................................................................................................................. 31

4.4.7 Heinzmann .................................................................................................................................. 31

4.4.8 Hitachi Automotive Systems ......................................................................................................... 31

4.4.9 Jing-Jin Electric ........................................................................................................................... 32

4.4.10 Parker Hannifin ........................................................................................................................... 32

4.4.11 Protean Electric ........................................................................................................................... 32

4.4.12 Remy International Inc. ................................................................................................................ 32

4.4.13 Robert Bosch GmbH .................................................................................................................... 33

4.4.14 Schaeffler ................................................................................................................................... 33

4.4.15 Siemens AG ................................................................................................................................ 33

4.4.16 UQM Technologies ...................................................................................................................... 33

4.4.17 YASA Motors ............................................................................................................................... 34

4.4.18 Yaskawa Electric ......................................................................................................................... 34

4.4.19 Zytek .......................................................................................................................................... 34



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Section 5 .......................................................................................................................................................... 36

Market Forecasts.............................................................................................................................................. 36

5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 36

5.2 Global Data ....................................................................................................................................... 37

5.3 North America ................................................................................................................................... 40

5.4 Western Europe ................................................................................................................................. 42

5.5 Eastern Europe ................................................................................................................................. 44

5.6 Asia Pacific ....................................................................................................................................... 46

5.7 Latin America .................................................................................................................................... 48

5.8 Middle East & Africa .......................................................................................................................... 50

5.9 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................................... 51

Section 6 .......................................................................................................................................................... 54

Company Directory .......................................................................................................................................... 54

Section 7 .......................................................................................................................................................... 59

Acronym and Abbreviation List ....................................................................................................................... 59

Section 8 .......................................................................................................................................................... 62

Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................. 62

Section 9 .......................................................................................................................................................... 66

Table of Charts and Figures ............................................................................................................................. 66

Section 10 ........................................................................................................................................................ 68

Scope of Study ................................................................................................................................................. 68

Sources and Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 68

Notes ................................................................................................................................................................ 69



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Section 9 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

Chart 1.1 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 ................................... 3

Chart 5.1 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 ................................ 37

Chart 5.2 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 .................................. 38

Chart 5.3 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Controller Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 .................. 39

Chart 5.4 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, North America: 2013-2020 ...................... 40

Chart 5.5 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, North America: 2013-2020 ........................... 41

Chart 5.6 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, Western Europe: 2013-2020 .................... 42

Chart 5.7 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, Western Europe: 2013-2020 ......................... 43

Chart 5.8 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, Eastern Europe: 2013-2020 .................... 44

Chart 5.9 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, Eastern Europe: 2013-2020 ......................... 45

Chart 5.10 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020 .......................... 46

Chart 5.11 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020 ............................... 47

Chart 5.12 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, Latin America: 2013-2020 ....................... 48

Chart 5.13 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, Latin America: 2013-2020 ............................ 49

Chart 5.14 Electric Vehicle Drive Motor Unit Sales by Power Rating, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2020 ............. 50

Chart 5.15 Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Revenue by Power Rating, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2020 .................. 51

Table 2.1 HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 .......................................................................... 6

Table 2.2 PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 ........................................................................ 6

Table 2.3 BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020 ........................................................................... 6

Table 2.4 HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: 2012-2014 ................................................................... 7

Table 2.5 HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: 2012-2014 .............................................................................. 8

Table 2.6 HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2012-2014 ....................................................................... 9



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Table 2.7 Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Country, World Markets: 2012 ................................ 11

Table 3.1 Comparison Summary of Electric Traction Motor Types ................................................................. 15

Table 4.1 Matrix of Additional Industry Participants ...................................................................................... 34



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Section 10 SCOPE OF STUDY

Navigant Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the EV market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, government officials, and fleet managers, with a study of the market for electric drive motor technologies for light duty vehicles. The report’s objective is to analyze the emerging market and likely future growth for electric motors and their controllers and their impact on the automotive industry. A review of major demand drivers and key industry players within the competitive landscape is also provided.

The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and motor types covered, but rather, a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Navigant Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through 2020.

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Navigant Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Navigant Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community.

Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Research’s analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report.

These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.

Navigant Research, a part of the Navigant Consulting, Inc. Energy Practice, is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.



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NOTES

CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:

CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1.

CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well.

Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2013 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.



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Published 1Q 2013

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1.303.997.7609 http://www.navigantresearch.com

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