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Evaluation of Development Plans Towards Sustainable Urban Transportation: A Case Study of Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR) CODATU XV Conference Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 22 nd -25 th October 2012 K V Krishna Rao, Professor Transportation Systems Engineering Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IITB) INDIA

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Page 1: Evaluation of Development Plans Towards Sustainable Urban ... · PDF fileEvaluation of Development Plans Towards Sustainable Urban Transportation: ... Indian Cities and their Size

Evaluation of Development Plans Towards Sustainable Urban Transportation:

A Case Study of Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR)

CODATU XV Conference Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

22nd-25th October 2012

K V Krishna Rao, Professor Transportation Systems Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IITB)

INDIA

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Outline

• Urbanization in India

• Need for the study

• Objectives of the study

• Study area & Data set

• Methodology

• Travel Demand Modeling

• Evaluation of Development Scenarios

– Usual Land Use Scenario

– Increasing FSI along proposed Metro corridor

• Conclusion

October 31, 2012 2

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Urbanization in India

• India is one of the fastest urbanizing country in the world at the moment

• By 2030, about 41% of India's population is expected to reside in urban

areas. (Source: UN State of the World Population report in 2007)

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Indian Cities and their Size

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Need for the Study

• Rapid growth in population and employment resulting in drastic increase

in number of trips

• Rapid growth of private vehicles and associated trips resulting in

unsustainable transportation

• Introduction of shared autorickshaws and increase in public transport

fares leading to unsustainable growth

• A very low modal share of public transport (13%) and hence an urgent

need to augment the current transportation system with modern high

capacity mass transit systems like metro, BRTS, Light rail, etc.

October 31, 2012 5

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Objectives of the Study

• To understand the basic aspects of sustainable planning and transportation

• Development of a complete GIS based transportation planning database for PMR

– Highway network development

– Transit network with all the existing and proposed PT routes

• Implementation of the travel demand model in a state of the art transportation planning software CUBE Voyager platform

• Evaluation of Development scenarios as proposed by Pune Municipal Corporation for the horizon years 2021 and 2031

October 31, 2012 6

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Study Area • Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR)

Area : 444 km2

Pop : 5.6 Million (2011)

October 31, 2012 7

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Delineation

• Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR):

• Traffic Analysis Zones – 267 internal zones, 13 external zones

o PMC - 144 zones o PCMC - 105 zones o Hinjewadi - 16 zones o Pune and Khadki cantonments

• Screen Lines o along Mula – Mutha river o along the existing Railway line

• Planning Period o base year : 2008 o Forecasting years 2021 & 2031

October 31, 2012 8

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(Source: Pune Metro Project, 2009)

Hinjewadi (16 Zones)

PMC (144 Zones)

PCMC (105 Zones)

Delineation

October 31, 2012 9

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(Source: Pune Metro Project, 2009)

Outer Cordon Stations

Screen Line 1 (Along Mula-Mutha River)

Screen Line 2 (Along Existing Railway Line)

Screen Lines and Outer Cordon Stations

October 31, 2012 10

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Growth of Vehicles in Pune

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Year

No

. o

f V

eh

icle

s (m

illi

on

)

TwoWheeler

Car/ Jeep

Rickshaw

CommercialVehicles

Bus

Others

Total

Data Set

As per 2007 data: TW: 370 per 1000 people Cars: 71 per 1000 people

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• Population

Data Set

October 31, 2012 12

0,77 1,08

1,59

2,24

3,57

5,6

7,83

9,23

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)

Year

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• Employment

Data Set

Region Employment (Million)

2008 2021 2031

PMC 1.11 1.78 2.36

PCMC 0.54 1.26 1.89

Pune Cantonment 0.04 0.05 0.05

Khadki Cantonment 0.04 0.05 0.05

Hinjewadi 0.25 0.39 0.5

Total 1.98 3.52 4.85

October 31, 2012 13

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• Traffic volume counts

• Occupancy counts

• O-D surveys

• Home interview survey

• Speed and delay survey

• Stated preference survey

Data Set

October 31, 2012 14

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Modal Share in Pune City

October 31, 2012 15

Walk 24%

Bicycle 9%

PT 13% IPT

8%

TW 39%

Car 7%

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Methodology

GIS based Transport network development with all necessary attributes

Implementation of Travel Demand Model in

CUBE Voyager platform

Evaluation of Development Scenarios for the horizon years 2021 and 2031

1. Usual Land Use Scenario

2. Increasing FSI along Metro Corridor

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

Highway network

Transit network with all existing and proposed PT routes

October 31, 2012 16

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Highway Network

– length - 3596 km

– 20,594 links

October 31, 2012 17

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PT Route Coding

October 31, 2012 18

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• PMPML (Pune Mahanagar Parivahan Mahamandal Limited) Bus routes

• Intermediate Public Transport-IPT (Auto) routes

• Suburban rail routes

• BRTS (Bus Rapid Transit System) routes

• Shared liner routes (6 passenger autorickshaws)

• Out station bus routes

• Proposed Metro routes

• Proposed Mono-rail routes

The coded Public Transport routes consist of:

PT Route Coding

October 31, 2012 19

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PT Routes Network

October 31, 2012 20

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Transport Network Systems for Horizon Years

Year Transport Network Systems

2008

Bus routes (363 routes)

Suburban rail route

BRT route (Katraj-Swargate-Hadapsar)

2021 &

2031

Bus routes

Suburban rail route

Proposed BRT routes

Proposed Monorail route

Proposed Metro routes

October 31, 2012 21

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Horizon Year Network

Proposed BRTS

Proposed Monorail

Proposed Metro

October 31, 2012 22

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Travel Demand Modeling

October 31, 2012 23

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• Speed flow equation:

Speed at Volume V = Free flow speed Vf (1 – alpa (v/c)^beta)

Four Stage Model Parameters

Category Trip Generation Trip Distribution

Trip Productions Trip Attractions α β

Car Owning Group 0.58 x POP_hig 1.45 x EMP+0.12 x STEN -2.09557 -0.0001819

Two Wheeler Owning Group 0.58 x POP_mig 1.28 x EMP+0.1 x STEN -1.07986 -0.0236587

No Vehicle Group 0.58 x POP_lig 1.18 x EMP -0.897392 -0.0255572

Category Modal Split

Equation

Car Owning Group a) Ucar = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC+0.5425

b) U2W = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC+0.3125

c) UPT = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC-0.03141*WT

Two Wheeler

Owning group

a) U2W = -0.003475*TT-0.07817*TC+1.312

b) UPT = -0.003475*TT-0.07817*TC-0.00687*WT

Trip Assignment

MODE VOT

(Rs/Hr)

VOC

(Rs/ Km)

PT 32 -

Two Wheeler 34 2

Car 107 5

October 31, 2012 24

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Usual Land Use Scenario (Scenario 1):

With the prevailing land use pattern (base year is taken as 2008) traffic is forecasted for the horizon years 2021 and 2031 with different transportation network systems. The different transportation systems considered for the horizon years in both the scenario1 and scenario 2 include metro, monorail and BRT corridors

Increasing Floor Space Index (FSI) along Metro corridor (Scenario 2):

Increasing the FSI to 4 along the Metro corridors (for 500m on both sides) for the years 2021 and 2031, the traffic is forecasted and compared with the usual land use scenario (Scenario 1).

Evaluation of Development Scenarios

October 31, 2012 25

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Results

October 31, 2012 26

2008 2021 2031

% PT Share 32.2% 48.5% 49.5%

% PV Share 67.8% 51.5% 50.5%

Comparison of Percentage Share of Public and Private Transport

Usual Land Use Scenario (Scenario 1)

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Results

October 31, 2012 27

2021 2031

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2

(Usual

Land Use)

(Increasing

FSI)

(Usual Land

Use)

(Increasing

FSI)

Average Trip Length in terms of travel time (in minutes)

No vehicle group 33.8 25.7 34.6 26.6

TW owning group 35.7 26.5 36.5 27.3

Car owning group 34.4 25.5 35.2 25.7

Comparison of Average Trip Lengths for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

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Results

October 31, 2012 28

Trip length frequency distribution graphs for different income groups (2021)

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• Considering the accelerated growth in population and the potential of future growth of Pune Metropolitan Region, implementation of land use and transport policies is of paramount importance

• Considering the concept of sustainable urban transportation, implementing high capacity transit systems in a phased manner with appropriate last mile connections and appropriate transit oriented development schemes becomes the need of the hour

• A scenario based approach was used to evaluate the development plans considered for the future years with the help a travel demand model.

Conclusion

October 31, 2012 29

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• In Scenario 1, the share of public transport has increased to nearly 50% for the horizon years.

• In Scenario 2:

• there is a reduction of 25% in the average trip length

• the boardings on Metro have increased.

• Increasing FSI along metro corridor will surely help rather than developing the city outwards.

• Transit oriented development, i.e., densification along with new public transportation infrastructure like metro can lead to a sustainable development.

Conclusion

October 31, 2012 30

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Thank You

October 31, 2012 31