evaluation and regional synthesis of national greenhouse
TRANSCRIPT
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SPREP’s Climate Changeand Integrated CoastalManagement Programme
Published by theSouth Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Evaluation and
Regional Synthesis
of National
Greenhouse
Gas Inventories
Volume 1:General Assessmentand Regional Synthesis
Prepared for theSouth Pacific Regional Environment Programmeby John E. Hay and Graham Sem
June 1999
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[Imprint]
© South Pacific Regional Environment Programme 2000
The South Pacific Regional Environment Programme authorises the reproduction of this material, wholeor in part, in any form provided appropriate acknowledgement is given.
Published by:South Pacific Regional Environment ProgrammePO Box 240Apia, Samoawww.sprep.org.ws
Printed by:
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Executive summary for policy makers v
Acknowledgments vi
List of abbreviations vii
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Terms of reference ............................................................................ 11.2 Approach and methods ..................................................................... 21.3 Outline of report ............................................................................... 2
2. Review of national GHG inventories 3
2.1 Previous studies ............................................................................... 32.2 Studies supported by PICCAP ......................................................... 32.3 Accomplishments .............................................................................. 3
3. Evaluation of the inventories 4
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 43.2 Strengths .......................................................................................... 43.3 Gaps ................................................................................................. 6
3.3.1 Gaps in coverage ..................................................................... 63.3.2 Gaps in understanding ........................................................... 63.3.3 Gaps in reporting .................................................................... 7
3.4 Data constraints ............................................................................... 83.5 Resources limitations ..................................................................... 10
4. Regional synthesis of the national findings 11
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 114.2 Comparison of national GHG emissions and removals ................ 114.3 Regional estimates of per capita emissions,
and comparison with global values ............................................... 12
5. Regional policy implications 16
5.1 Implications for technical policies and plans ................................ 165.2 Implications for development policies and plans .......................... 175.3 National issues, priorities and plans ............................................. 175.4 Energy use and demand................................................................. 185.5 Other policy implications ............................................................... 18
6. Capacity building implications 19
6.1 Future inventory work ................................................................... 196.2 UNFCCC process ............................................................................ 19
7. Possible projects related to greenhouse gas inventories 21
8. Conclusions and recommendations 22
9. References 23
Contents
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Executive summary for policy makers
The Pacific Islands Climate Change AssistanceProgramme (PICCAP) is a three-year climatechange enabling activity involving 10 Pacific IslandCountries (PICs): Cook Islands, Federated Statesof Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands,Nauru, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu andVanuatu. PICCAP is designed to assist PICs inmeeting their reporting requirements under theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC). The project is funded by theGlobal Environment Facility (GEF), implementedby the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) and executed by the South Pacific RegionalEnvironment Programme (SPREP).
To enable countries to fulfil their reportingrequirements, PICCAP has been providing andfacilitating technical assistance to national climatechange teams and experts. This assistance hasresulted in technical studies that will form the basisfor their initial national communications to theConference of the Parties (CoP) to the UNFCCC.National greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories are oneof five activities that have been undertaken bynational teams and experts. To ensure maximumvalue is gained from this work, the findings fromeach country need to be reviewed, evaluated andsynthesised. The current regional assessment andsynthesis is intended to complement and facilitatecompletion of the initial national communications.
In addition to fulfilling obligations under theConvention, the completion of these inventories isalso of note for a number of important reasons:
• the completed inventories provide acomprehensive set of national data generatedusing international best practices;
• the data can be used in the preparation ofnational sustainable development strategies andfor assessing the success of these strategies overtime;
• the findings can be used to shape the positionstaken in both national and internationalenvironmental policy discussions. In this respectit is especially helpful to be able to quantify bothnational and per capita emissions of GHG
relative to totals and per capita values calculatedon a global basis;
• the inventory results provide guidance forinvestment decisions by the private sector andby international, regional and bilateral donors.The newly acquired inventory data assistinvestors to determine where the greatestenvironmental benefits can be achieved; and
• by combining the data from the 10 inventoriesit is possible to prepare the first credibleestimate of the anthropogenic GHG emissionsfor the Pacific Islands region.
The obvious and overall strength of the 10 nationalinventories is that they have been prepared usingcomparable methods that are in turn based oninternational best practices. The effort that hasgone into compiling the GHG inventory data willbe invaluable for estimating total and per capitaemissions of GHG from individual countries andfrom the Pacific Islands region as a whole.
By way of introduction and background to thereport, an historic overview of national GHGinventories undertaken by PICs is presented. Thisleads into a description of the national studiesundertaken with support by PICCAP. Thecontributions made to our overall understandingof GHG sources and sinks are highlighted.
The recently completed inventories represent asignificant advancement in terms of both our abilityto undertake such studies and our level ofunderstanding of the extent to which humanactivities in PICs contribute to changes inatmospheric composition. However, additional workis needed in order to address shortcomings in themethodologies, gaps in our knowledge, dataconstraints and remaining uncertainties.
A regionally focused synthesis of the results of the10 national studies is provided. Significantvariations in GHG emissions for the 10 PICs aredocumented, as are comparisons between PICs andcountries outside the Pacific basin.
Annual CO2 emissions from the energy sector rangefrom 4.509 gigagrams (Gg) of carbon dioxide (CO2)
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for Tuvalu to 1196 Gg of CO2 for Fiji. Per capitaequivalent emissions range from 0.23 tonnes of CO2
for Kiribati to 4.60 tonnes of CO2 for Nauru. Therange in per capita equivalent emissions is greaterthan those based on the equivalent CO2 emissionsfrom petroleum consumption.
Of the seven countries reporting methane emissionsfrom solid waste disposal systems, the lowestreported annual emissions was for the Cook Islands(0.275 Gg of methane (CH4) while the highest wasfor Fiji (3.4 GG of CH4). The equivalent per capitaemissions ranged between 0.274 kg of CH4 for theCook Islands and 42.865 kg of CH4 per capita forNauru.
Only four countries reported annual carbon releaseand uptake related to land use change and forestryactivities. Fiji reported 2902 kilotonnes (kt) perannum of carbon uptake while the three othercountries (Cook Islands, Samoa and SolomonIslands) reported values less than 73 kt of carbonuptake a year. The Solomon Islands inventoryshows 2093 kt of carbon are released each year dueto land use change and forestry, with the remainingthree countries indicating 178 kt per annum, or less.
Three of the four countries indicated that CO2
removals exceeded emissions due to land usechange and forestry by as much as 9989 Gg of CO2
per annum in the case of Fiji. The Solomon Islandsreported that emissions exceeded removals by7475.6 Gg of CO2 per annum.
The small number of countries providinginformation on other emissions and removals doesnot allow useful comparisons to be made.
Available national data reveal a per capitaequivalent emission of approximately 0.96 tonnesof CO2 per year. On this basis, the total Pacific Islandpopulation of 7.1 million in 22 countries producessome 6.816 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 per year. Incontrast, based on International Energy Agencydata for 1996, global CO2 emissions arising fromfossil fuel combustion only are 22620.46 Mt of CO2
per year, or 4.02 tonnes of CO2 per capita per year.
Thus, on average, individual Pacific Islanders areresponsible for producing approximately one
quarter of the CO2 emissions attributable to theaverage person worldwide. Expressed another way,the Pacific Islands region as a whole accounts forsome 0.03% of the global emissions of CO2 from fuelcombustion despite having around 0.12% of theworld’s population.
By way of a further comparison, and relative to theglobal figures, the OECD countries are collectivelyresponsible for nearly three times the per capitaproduction of CO2 through the burning of fossilfuels. In terms of total CO2 emissions from fuelconsumption, the 29 OECD countries account forjust over 50% of the global total; yet these countriesaccount for only about 20% of the world’spopulation. The differences might be reducedsomewhat if net emissions from biomass burningand land use changes were also included, but suchrefinement is not possible due to the current lackof comparable data.
The report goes on to explore the implications ofthe preceding findings for regional policies,including those dealing with technical,environmental and development issues. Nationaland regional assessments of GHG emissions haveidentified areas where further capacity building isrequired. These include strengthening of technicalabilities related to the inventory work itself, theneed for enhancing the ability to meet the evolvingrequirements of the UNFCCC and the need toensure that the inventory findings are reflectedappropriately in national and regional policies andplans.
The report concludes with the identification ofprojects that would address many of the policy andcapacity building implications that have beenidentified in the synthesis.
AcknowledgementsAppreciation is offered to all the named andunnamed individuals and organisations whocontributed to the completion of the emissionsinventories in the Cook Islands, the FederatedStates of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, the MarshallIslands, Nauru, Samoa, the Solomon Islands,Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
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List of abbreviations
CC:TRAIN Climate Change Training
CoP Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC
GEF Global Environment Facility
GHG Greenhouse Gases
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MPRII Second Multipartite Review Meeting
OECD Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development
PAGII Second PICCAP Advisory Group Meeting
PIC Pacific Island Country
PICCAP Pacific Island Climate Change Assistance Programme
SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research
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1. Introduction
The Pacific Islands Climate Change AssistanceProgramme (PICCAP) is a three-year climatechange enabling activity involving 10 Pacific IslandCountries (PICs): Cook Islands, Federated Statesof Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands,Nauru, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu andVanuatu. PICCAP is designed to assist PICs inmeeting their reporting requirements underArticles 4 and 12 of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Theproject is funded by the Global EnvironmentFacility (GEF), implemented by the United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP) and executed bythe South Pacific Regional EnvironmentProgramme (SPREP).
To enable countries to fulfil their reportingrequirements under the UNFCCC, PICCAP hasbeen providing and facilitating technical assistanceto national climate change teams and experts. Thisassistance has allowed them to undertake technicalstudies that will form the basis for their initialnational communications to the Conference of theParties (CoP) to the UNFCCC. Expert advice,knowledge, skills and technical assistance has beenprovided through a series of training workshopsand a University-based certificate trainingprogramme. In addition, in-country technicalmissions have been conducted by PICCAP and otherregional partner institutions that work closely withthe country teams and experts. These have helpedensure timely completion of the comprehensivetechnical studies.
National greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories are oneof five activities undertaken by national teams andexperts. To ensure that maximum value can begained from this work, the findings of the nationalstudies require review, evaluation and synthesis.At the second PICCAP Advisory Group Meeting(PAGII) held in Auckland, New Zealand, and thesecond Multipartite Review Meeting (MPRII) heldin Apia, Samoa, it was agreed that National GHGInventories be reviewed and a regional synthesisof GHG inventories be produced by a regionalconsultant working in close collaboration with thePICCAP Scientific/Technical Adviser. The regionalassessment and synthesis is intended tocomplement and facilitate completion of the initialnational communications.
1.1 Terms of reference
The regional consultant will work with the PICCAPScientific/Technical Adviser to review the NationalGHG Inventories and produce a regional synthesisfor inclusion in the initial National Communicationto be submitted to the CoP of the UNFCCC. Inpreparing the National GHG Inventory Report, theconsultant will use the format and guidanceprovided by Decision CP.2/10 on Non-Annex INational Communications and the Greenhouse GasInventory Reporting Instructions (Volume I) of theRevised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories.
(1) The consultant will use the National GHGInventory and, in close consultation withPICCAP Scientific/Technical Adviser,undertake the following tasks:
(a) describe, review and evaluate allNational GHG Inventories;
(b) identify gaps, data constraints,methodological problems anduncertainties;
(c) provide a regional synthesis of theinformation contained in the NationalGHG Inventories;
(d) identify and highlight regional policyimplications particularly in relation to (i)national priorities and issues, (ii) energyuse and future demand, and (iii) anyother relevant policy issues;
(e) identify and provide options for capacitybuilding needs in relation to futureinventory work and the UNFCCCprocess; and
(f) identify possible projects.
(2) By way of the PICCAP Scientific/TechnicalAdviser, the consultant should draw on theexpertise, experiences and knowledge of theNational GHG Inventory experts, countryteam members and the national coordinators,
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and consult as widely as possible in preparinga regional synthesis of the GHG inventories.
(3) Upon completion of the draft regionalsynthesis the consultant must present thefindings at an appropriate regional meeting/conference, as determined by PICCAP/SPREPmanagement.
(4) The Regional Synthesis Report should includean Executive Summary for Policy Makers.
1.2 Approach and methods
Before a regional synthesis of the nationalinventory findings could be undertaken it wasnecessary to assess the quality of the individualstudies through a validation process. Theassessment was aided by the development of achecklist, which identified numerous impedimentsto the completion of the reports to adequatestandards.
The general findings of this technical assessmentand validation are presented in Section 3 of thisreport. The more detailed findings are presentedin Volume 2.
The regional synthesis was undertaken bycompiling and interpreting the comparablestatistics for all 10 countries (or fewer if informationwas not provided by all). In some instances the datafor the 10 countries were extrapolated in order toestimate the collective and individual contributionsPacific Islanders are making to greenhouse gasemissions, relative to other regions and the globeas a whole.
Finally, the findings were used to guide a discussionthat addressed implications for policy and forcapacity building activities at both national andregional levels and to identify gaps, constraints andissues for further elaboration and development infuture inventories.
1.3 Outline of report
Section 2 provides an historic overview of NationalGHG Inventories undertaken by PICs. This leadsinto a description of the national studiesundertaken with support by PICCAP. Thecontributions made to our overall understandingof GHG sources and sinks will be highlighted.
The recently completed inventories represent asignificant advancement in terms of both our abilityto undertake such studies and our level ofunderstanding of the extent to which humanactivities in PICs contribute to changes inatmospheric composition. These accomplishmentswill be described in Section 3, as will the need foradditional work to address shortcomings in themethodologies, gaps in our knowledge, dataconstraints and remaining uncertainties. Moredetailed information is provided in Volume 2.
Section 4 provides a regionally focused synthesisof the results of the 10 national studies. Variationsin emissions for the 10 PICS are documented, asare comparisons between PICs and countriesoutside the Pacific basin.
Section 5 explores the implications of the precedingfindings for regional policies, including thosedealing with technical, environmental anddevelopment issues.
The national and regional assessments of GHGemissions have identified areas where furthercapacity building is required. As described inSection 6, these include strengthening technicalabilities related to the inventory work itself, theneed for enhancing the ability to meet the evolvingrequirements of the UNFCCC and the need toensure that the inventory findings are reflectedappropriately in national and regional policies andplans.
The report concludes with the identification ofprojects that would address many of the policy andcapacity building implications that have beenidentified in the synthesis.
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2.1 Previous studies
Under the US Country Studies Programme, theFederated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati andthe Marshall Islands have completed an initialinventory using 1990 and 1994 as reference years.Under the auspices of PICCAP, these countriesagreed to repeat their inventories for 1994. Kumar(1999) includes a summary of the achievements,constraints and experiences these countries gainedfrom the US Country Studies Programme.
2.2 Studies supported by PICCAP
PICCAP has supported the preparation of NationalGHG Inventories for all 10 of its participatingcountries. A summary of the activities undertakenby PICCAP in support of the studies can be foundin Kumar (1999). These initiatives include a one-week training course attended by at least twopeople from each of the participating countries. Theaim of the workshop was to introduce participantsto the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and Organisation for Economic Cooperationand Development (OECD) methodology forreporting on GHG inventories as required by theUNFCCC and to adapt this methodology for use inthe individual countries involved in PICCAP. Theworkshop made use of training materials that weredeveloped by the United Nations Institute forTraining and Research (UNITAR) as part of itsclimate change training programme (CC:TRAIN).
2.3 Accomplishments
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is thestabilisation of GHG concentrations in theatmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climatesystem. As part of accomplishing this goal, theConvention also calls for Parties to committhemselves to the following:
• develop, update periodically, publish and makeavailable to the CoP their national inventoriesof anthropogenic emissions by sources, andremovals by sinks, of all GHG not controlled bythe Montreal Protocol; and
• to use comparable methodologies for inventoriesof GHG emissions and removals, to be agreedupon by the CoP.
To give effect to these commitments, the 10countries participating in PICCAP have preparedand submitted their national inventories of GHGemissions and removals by sinks, in accordancewith the Revised IPCC Guidelines (IPCC, 1997).For most countries1 this is the first National GHGInventory to be prepared. The findings will beincorporated in the national communications to theCoP.
In addition to fulfilling obligations under theConvention, the completion of these inventories isalso of note for a number of important reasons.Firstly, the completed inventories provide acomprehensive set of national data generated usinginternational best practices. These data can be usedin the preparation of national sustainabledevelopment strategies and for assessing thesuccess of these strategies over time. Secondly, thefindings can be used to shape the positions takenin both national and international environmentalpolicy discussions. In this respect it is especiallyhelpful to be able to quantify both national and percapita emissions of greenhouse gases, relative tototals and per capita values calculated on a globalbasis. Thirdly, the inventory results provideguidance for investment decisions by the privatesector and by international, regional and bilateraldonors. The newly acquired inventory data assistinvestors to determine where the greatestenvironmental benefits can be achieved. Fourthly,by combining the data from the 10 inventories it ispossible to prepare the first credible estimate ofthe anthropogenic GHG emissions for the PacificIslands region.
2. Review of National GHG Inventories
1 The exceptions are the Federated States ofMicronesia, Fiji, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands.
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3. Evaluation of the inventories
3.1 Introduction
To facilitate the evaluation reported in this section,a checklist of desirable attributes of a nationalinventory report was developed. The checklist wasbased on the reporting instructions in IPCC (1997)and the findings of an expert group meeting onmethods for the assessment of inventory quality(IPCC, 1998). A summary of the findings using thechecklist is presented in Table 3.1. More detailedinformation is presented in Volume 2 of this report.
It is intended that the detailed information inVolume 2 be used for three purposes:
(1) to highlight where improvements can be madein the completeness and usefulness of thecurrent inventories;
(2) to provide guidance as to how futureinventories can be enhanced in terms of boththe methods used and the information that isproduced; and
(3) to identify areas for future inventory work sothat a higher level of transparency, consistencyand comparability can be achieved.
This is the first attempt by most countries toproduce a GHG inventory by their own trainednationals. The level of achievement to date istherefore commendable. Many strengths can beidentified. The shortcomings are noted in order toenhance the quality of future inventories andrelated work.
3.2 Strengths
The obvious and overall strength of the 10 nationalinventories is that they have been prepared usingcomparable methods that are in turn based oninternational best practices (IPCC, 1997). The effortthat has gone into compiling the GHG inventorydata for 10 Pacific Island countries will beinvaluable for estimating total and per capitaemissions of GHG from individual countries andfrom the Pacific Islands region as a whole.Preliminary estimates of these values will beprovided in Section 4.
Table 3.1 shows that all countries used the IPCCReference Approach to determine CO2 emissionsfrom energy sources. All countries used the IPCCsource/sink categories, where appropriate, andprovided information as to how data wereaggregated to the level of these categories.Countries used the source/sink categories of IPCCwhen there were sufficient data. For example, somecountries did not consider emissions related toindustrial processes and solvents and other productuse because the activities were either absent or nomethodology was developed by IPCC for thesesource/sink categories.
Most countries have used the same base year(1994), as required by Decision 10/CP.2 of the CoP,thereby facilitating inter-country comparisons andaggregation of data to the regional level. However,in one instance 1991 was used as the base year,and for another country data were provided for allfour years from 1994 to 1997, inclusive.
In all but one case the emission factors wereconsistent with the units used but, as will beelaborated later, default emission factors werealways applied.
Further benefits of the consistent approach topreparing GHG emissions inventories will beapparent in Section 4, and in the ability to developregionally-based response options for mitigation(Section 5).
As stated, one country reported emissions data forfour years from 1994 to 1997. Over the period CO2
emissions increased by 13.6% (3.4% per year) whileCO2 removals increased by 7.2% over the sameperiod. The bulk of the increased emissions occurredin the Land Use Change and Forestry category.While the findings are for only one country, they doillustrate the benefits of repeated assessmentsusing comparable and consistent methods.
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Number of Number ofcountries countries Unclear Not
Sectoral report tables providing providing or partial applicablesome level no
of information information
Energy 5 5 0 0
Industrial processes 0 10 0 0
Solvent and other product use 0 10 0 0
Agriculture 3 7 0 0
Land-use change and forestry 3 7 0 0
Waste 4 6 0 0
Summary report 6 4 0 0
Short summary report 5 5 0 0
Overview table 2 8 0 0
Use of standard units 7 3 0 0
Use of IPCC source/sink categories 8 0 2 0with description of differences
Details of base year(s) 7 0 3 0
Information on emissions using reference approach 10 0 0 0
Information on uncertainties 3 7 0 0
Information on verification 0 10 0 0
Documentation allowing reproducible approach 2 8 0 0
Checking results against other methods 0 10 0 0
Evidence of double counting of emissions 0 2 8 0
Consistency of emission factors with units used 8 1 1 0
Use of default emission factors 9 0 1 0
Sectoral approach data provided— 2 5 3 0compared to reference approach
Explanation of any differences 1 4 0 5
Inventory report provided 7 3 0 0
Description of differences from IPCC default methods 1 9 0 0
Description of estimation methods 3 7 0 0
Description of major assumptions 3 7 0 0not included in worksheets
References to data sources 6 4 0 0
Innovations in data sources, methods etc. 1 9 0 0
Description of difficulties in developing 7 3 0 0and reporting the inventory
Data constraints 7 3 0 0
Resources limitations 7 3 0 0
Table 3.1: Number of countries providing GHG inventory information
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3.3 Gaps
Table 3.1, and the more detailed information inVolume 2, reveals that there are many, butunderstandable, shortcomings in the inventories.These fall into three broad categories, and will bediscussed in turn.
3.3.1 Gaps in coverage
The IPCC GHG inventory has six main categories:Energy, Industrial Processes, Solvent and OtherProduct Use, Agriculture, Land Use Change andForestry, and Waste. Currently no methods areprovided for determination of emissions related tosolvent and other product use.
Table 3.2 shows that of the five remainingcategories only energy is reasonably well reported.Additional details are provided in Volume 2.
The information provided for each category tendsto reflect two major factors: the importance of theactivities represented by the module, relative to thecollective economic activity and the availability ofinformation on which the reporting is based. Theenergy sector is of critical importance to all PacificIsland countries and the information on which anemissions inventory is based is relatively accessible,at least in so far as the Reference or Top-DownApproach is concerned.
The low reporting for the other categories is areflection of both the relative insignificance of theactivities related to that module (industrialprocesses are noteworthy in this respect) and thelack of the relevant activity data (for example,absence of data on forest and grassland conversionand abandonment).
The lack of relevant activity data is an issue thatwill be taken up in Section 6.
At another level, coverage within the respectivecategories is also highly variable. Examples of gapsin the energy category (the most reported category)include the inability to separate international
bunkers from the national fuel consumption dataand the lack of information on consumption ofbiomass fuels. As noted previously, only twocountries also used the sectoral approach fordetermining CO2 emissions from energy sources.
Given the relative importance of CO2 removals byPacific Island countries (see Section 4), it isregrettable that only three countries provided evenpartial data on land use change and forestry.However, these three countries did provide data ontotal carbon uptake, and hence have contributedto our understanding of the relative importance ofGHG sources and sinks for Pacific Island countries(see Section 4).
3.3.2 Gaps in understanding
The gaps in understanding that are revealed in theinventory reports have major implications for notonly the quality and usefulness of the currentinventories, but also for the training, which mustbe undertaken if future inventories are to addressshortcomings in our contemporary knowledge andunderstanding.
As a result of the work of IPCC and cooperatingagencies, the inventory process is now highlysystematised. The software and worksheets that areprovided mean that there are fewer instances whereindividual judgement is required. However, thereare still many requirements for personal knowledgeand understanding, especially with respect to thefollowing:
• overcoming information deficiencies or absences;
• harmonising the activity data with the IPCCsource, sink and other categories;
• recognising differences from default methods;
• awareness and use of assumptions not explicitin the IPCC methodology;
• ensuring consistency in units, conversion factorsand in emission factors;
Table 3.2: Number of countries providing information related to the five IPCC categories
Category Some information provided No information provided
Energy 7 3
Industrial processes 2 8
Agriculture 3 7
Land use change and forestry 3 7
Waste 4 6
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• use of country-relevant emission factors;
• avoiding double counting of energy sources thatcontribute to emissions;
• quality assurance;
• improvement of information sources andmethods;
• characterising uncertainties;
• reporting and interpreting findings; and
• developing recommendations and policy options;
While seven countries provided a written report tocomplement the tabulated data, regrettably fewincluded material that allows an assessment of thelevel of understanding related to the requirementslisted above. This, in itself, suggests that thoseundertaking the inventories have not recognisedfully the need for transparency, consistency andcomparability in the inventory process.
Where countries provided the information, it isapparent that harmonising the activity data withthe IPCC source, sink and other categories is amajor challenge. This not unexpected finding islikely to apply to other countries that failed to reporton the procedures used, but without explicitinformation it is impossible to know whatassumptions were made when the activity data wasinterpreted in the context of the IPCC categories.At both the regional and country level more effortneeds to be made to ensure that the activity data isreferenced to the IPCC categories in an appropriateand consistent manner.
The failure of three countries to adopt consistentunits, conversion factors and emission factorsresulted in serious errors in the estimated GHGemissions. These were of such magnitude that theywere readily recognised; however, it raises concernthat further, less obvious errors may persist.
All countries used default emission factors and fewraised concerns as to their applicability. Country-relevant emission factors have been recognised asa priority (SPREP 1999), but understanding isneeded in order to make decisions as to when andunder what circumstances they should be used.Although IPCC (1997) notes the necessity to ensurethat emissions from a given activity are notincluded in several source categories, there is norecognition in the reports of this importantrequirement. The same comment applies to themore general requirement of quality assurance.
In a small number of reports, suggestions weremade in relation to improving information sources
and methods, but in general there seemed to be anacceptance of the status quo and of generic methodsrather than ones which would yield higher qualityestimates given the country specific circumstances.
Similarly, a small number of reports made aconcerted effort to characterise the uncertaintiesin the estimated sources and sinks, but in the mainthe issue of uncertainty was not discussed. In suchcases there is a risk that those users who are notwell-informed on the national inventory will fail torecognise the limitations inherent in theinformation, with the possibility that inappropriate,if not unwarranted, decisions and actions willresult.
One national report noted that the most importantCO2 removal mechanism for most Pacific Islandcountries is the uptake of CO2 by planktonic marineplants. Many of these countries have over 10,000times as much ocean as land. Instructions fordealing with ocean areas as a removal mechanismwere not provided in the guidelines. It wasrecommended that specifications to address thissink category be added to the IPCC guidelines inthe future. However, to do so would shift the focusfrom anthropogenic to natural processes.
However, it should be noted that the IPCCguidelines are designed to estimate and report onnational inventories of anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions and removals, i.e. emissions andremovals that are a direct result of humanactivities, or are the result of natural processes thathave been affected by human activities (IPCC,1997). Thus the above recommendation isinconsistent with IPCC policy.
As understanding and experience increases onecould reasonably expect to see significantimprovements in reporting and interpretingfindings and the subsequent development ofrecommendations and policy options.
3.3.3 Gaps in reporting
As noted in Table 3.1, seven of the 10 countriesprovided some form of inventory report. Given thatfor most countries this is the first such nationalreport ever prepared, the quality of the reports iscommendable.
As noted by the IPCC, national inventory reportsshould provide minimum information to enable theresults to be reconstructed, and to justify the choiceof methodology and data used. Thus documentationshould contain enough information to explaindifferences between national methods and data,and the IPCC default methods and assumptions.Reasons for the differences should be explained and
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sources of emission factors and other national datashould also be clearly cited. Minimum requirementsinclude emission factors, activity data and a list ofreferences documenting any differences from IPCCrecommendations (IPCC, 1997).
Most countries used the IPCC default methods,though in some cases this must be assumed as itwas not directly stated in the reports. However, evenwhen all default methods are used there is still aneed to aggregate activity data in a way thatconforms as closely as possible to the IPCC sourceand sink categories. As noted above, assumptionsmust be made when harmonising the activity datawith the source and sink categories, but only threecountries provided even minimal information onthe procedures that were followed.
Six countries provided some information on thesources of activity and other data used in theinventory. Even in these instances, more explicitdetails would be needed in order to meet the IPCCreporting standards. Only one country describedinnovations in data sources and methodology.
The majority of the national reports did refer todifficulties in developing and reporting theinventory. The comments made are reflected inSection 3.4 and 3.5 and in the recommendations inSection 8 of this report.
3.4 Data constraints
The majority of countries that submitted a writtenreport noted significant difficulties related toacquiring the requisite data. The principal issueswere whether or not the desired data actuallyexisted and, if so, whether it was accessible, in atimely manner and in a form that permitted its usefor the inventory.
One national report stated the key issues in veryclear terms: acquisition of accurate data is definitelythe hardest part of the inventory... the lack and poordata quality reflects limited resources andcapabilities so it must be emphasised from thisexercise that future inventories will be improvedonly if an effort is made now to improve datamanagement resources and skills.
Other pertinent comments made in the reportsinclude:
• ‘either there was no precise informationavailable or records have not been updated’;
• ‘understanding the guideline manual... has beentime consuming and... by the time the text wasunderstood we sometimes learn that the datacollected was not the correct one’;
• ‘no data were available... like burning ofgrassland and abandonment of managed lands’;
• ‘the Customs Department have lost the 1991data from their computer database’;
• ‘no data is available on which areas haverecently been logged and replanted and this sinkcan therefore not be estimated’;
• ‘data from emissions based upon fuel sold toships or aircraft engaged in internationaltransport have been included in the nationaltotals, as the data for these activities could notbe isolated’;
• ‘it was difficult to determine what portion of fuelwas for “international” use in a nation of smallland area but 1.2 million square kilometres ofocean area’;
• ‘agricultural and land use data is basedprimarily on subjective estimates or notestimated—currently... has no system ofagricultural surveys’;
• ‘no estimates for land use and forest change areavailable at he present time’;
• ‘no estimation of SO2 emissions was made in thisinventory. Without the appropriate informationabout the petroleum products imported into thecountry the risk of achieving an extremely lowlevel of confidence associated with SO2 emissionswas seen to be too high if estimation procedureswere to be applied’;
• ‘a dominant feature in the residential sector...in the past decade is the growing use of lawnmowers, both the four-stroke and two-strokeengines. Again no mechanism is in place tomonitor the amount of fossil fuel used this way’;
• ‘notwithstanding the great effort by theAgriculture Department in collectinginformation, very little is known about ruralagriculture’;
• ‘most crop residues are non-combustible—theseare usually left to decompose at the plantationsites. However, as there is no information aboutthe quantities of these items they have beenexcluded from the inventory’;
• ‘due to the limited information on land usepractices, there is much uncertainty associatedwith emissions from Land Use Change andForestry. Reducing this uncertainty dependsvery much on the Forestry Division in solicitingthe required information for future GHGinventories’;
9
• ‘for the National Team for Climate Change tocome up with a more realistic emission andremoval estimate for greenhouse gases there isa need to have access to data of acceptablestandard. In addition, the team still requiresassistance and collaboration from all sectorsinvolved in greenhouse gas emissions andremovals. Hence the need for an integratedsystem with comprehensible and user friendlymechanisms that allow closer cooperationbetween the team and the various sectors of thecommunity’;
• ‘availability of the requested data seems to bethe greatest problem of this inventory’;
• ‘management problems such as poor filingsystem, poor recording system, change ofresources etc. within each respectedorganisation also contribute to the delay of thisinventory’;
• ‘some organisations take total disregard of thisinventory and pretend to be busy’;
• ‘the accuracy and reliability of the data provideddepend entirely on the genuineness and goodwill effort of each respected organisation’;
• ‘main constraints faced in this study were thelack of readily available data and the time frameof the inventory which was very short (July toNovember, 1998)’;
• ‘due to time constraints the experts were notable to collect all the possible data for thedifferent sectors from the outer islands’;
• ‘we have not calculated all the emissions for allthe different sectors due to lack of readilyavailable data’;
• ‘the emissions of CO2 and other non-CO2
greenhouse gases produced from industrialsources are not reported due to the timerestriction and some difficulties encountered inthe process of data collection, some of which arelisted below:
- few statistical data for 1994 provided by theDepartment of Trade and Industry on thetotal quantities of alcohol and soft drinksproduced in the country are questionable,
- the feedback we received from the variousgovernment and private sectors involved infood processing and other products is verypoor,
- we found that most of the information thatwe requested from them did not exist,
- some of the private companies are reluctantto release their statistical data informationrequested’; and
• ‘we have no statistics available on fuel woodconsumption, burning of cleared forest, forestand grassland conversion and abandonment ofmanaged lands into their prior natural andgrassland conditions’.
One country team conducted a questionnaire toobtain information on the use of fuel wood. Thiswas deemed necessary due to the absence of formalrecords of this fuel type, despite its apparentsignificance in the local economy. Although theIPCC guidelines specifically require that CO2
emissions from biomass or fuel wood burning beexcluded from national totals, the inventory teamnoted that the results of the survey showed a highusage of these fuels, particularly in the ruralcommunities where large quantities of fuel woodare used for cooking and for drying crops such ascopra, cocoa and peanuts. Thus CO2 emissions willbe large in a relative sense.
One report noted that frequent changes inmanagement create difficulties in accessing data;changes in management often mean changes in themethods of record keeping and often records priorto the change are burnt or otherwise destroyed.
Another perspective on data availability makessome interesting points. Given that it was the firstGHG inventory conducted in the country, the term‘greenhouse’ met with considerable resistance, andthere was ‘bad impression and uncertainty’ withrespect to how the inventory might affect businessesand organisations being asked to provide data.Organisations were apprehensive about the waysin which the inventory might impact on them, andtherefore were unwilling to provide information incase it could be used against them.
At least one country was unsuccessful in obtainingactivity and associated data for land areas leasedto a foreign government for military use. The GHGemissions were thought to be of major importancerelative to those from the remainder of the country.The suggestion was made that the GHG emissionsfor such land areas be included in the inventory ofthe country leasing the land.
One country noted problems in changing theinventory base line from 1990 to 1994. The reportnoted that ‘such [a] period is quite a distant (sic)backward hence most selected organisationsrequire [a] substantial amount of time to locate oldfiles or record[s], thus delaying respond (sic)’.
Lack of access to suitable transport was highlightedas an impediment to obtaining the necessary data:
10
‘transport is a must because collection of datarequires a lot of moving around in search of relevantdata’.
In summary, the lack of ready access to the accuratedata in a form that is consistent with inventoryrequirements is a major impediment to thesuccessful implementation of the inventory. Theseproblems are more apparent and significant whenthe inventory is conducted for the first time;however, many will not reduce for subsequentinventories unless concerted efforts are made toremedy or mitigate them. Possible strategies willbe discussed in Section 7.
It is pertinent to note that an expert group meetingon methods for the assessment of GHG inventoryquality (IPCC, 1998) recommended that IPCCdevelop ‘codes of good practice’ to improve theavailability of underlying data for inventories. Therecommendations will be explored in more detailin Section 7.
3.5 Resource limitations
A typical comment can be found in the report forSamoa, where attention is drawn to a recent surveyconducted by the Government of Samoa. The surveyrevealed that technical data required by the IPCCguidelines is very limited due to the limitedresources for data management, the lack of skills,or both. Many of the comments and observationsdocumented in Section 3.4 are pertinent to thecurrent discussion. Thus, most of the data gapsidentified in that section are traceable to resourcelimitations, including inadequacies in datacollection and management procedures andsystems, and shortages of people to participate inthe formal processes of completing the inventory.
However, the results of the inaugural inventories,and even those for countries with more experience,provide ample evidence that, in addition, trainingis required for those who have formal responsibilityfor implementing and completing the inventory. Thegaps in understanding that were documented inSection 3.3 are, in themselves, evidence of this needfor enhanced expertise and experience.
It should be possible to complete an inventory ofGHG emissions and sinks if the appropriate
software is provided and access to a certain amountof data is available. Indeed, many countries haveachieved this level of success, merely by a largelyuncritical use of the software and the available data.However, even with a cursory understanding of thecomplexities of the inventory process it is clear thatmajor challenges will inevitably arise whenassembling the activity data, selecting emissionfactors and making assumptions and choices.Frequently, critical assessment and expertjudgement are required. Meeting the inventoryrequirements is not merely a matter of completingforms (or a spreadsheet) in an uncritical manner,and assuming that all data are internally andmutually consistent.
It is also important that this inventory is not just a‘one-off ’ exercise; it must be repeated at appropriatetime intervals, using consistent data and methods.The compilation of an accurate, reliable inventoryof GHG emissions and sinks is a complex andcontinuous activity because it requires the poolingof multidisciplinary skills in fields such as thenatural sciences, engineering, economics, sociology,management and commerce. Thus there is a needfor the ongoing participation of a team of in-countryexperts who accumulate expertise and experiencethrough their continued involvement. There is alsoan implicit commitment of continued financialsupport and to the provision of the necessaryinformation. Therefore institutional, legal, politicaland financial systems must be capable of providingcontinued support to the inventory process.
The 10 countries have demonstrated a willingnessand commitment to meet their obligations to theConvention. Through their initial efforts they havealso identified many of the challenges and theshortcomings in the procedures, and in their abilityto follow them.
There is now an urgent need to ensure that thenumerous resource needs (human, financial,information and so on) are addressed in a timelymanner. In this way there will be a markedimprovement in the quality of the next andsubsequent inventories. This will enhance theirusefulness, not only for assessing the efficacy ofcurrent national policies and internationalagreements, but also for guiding developmentplanning at the national level and strengtheningenvironmental agreements internationally.
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4.2 Comparison of national GHGemissions and removals
Table 4.1 presents summary data on population andCO2 and CH4 emissions for given sectors of thereporting countries. Where necessary the reporteddata have been adjusted, as described in Volume 2.
Annual CO2 emissions from the energy sector rangefrom 4.509 Gg of CO2 for Tuvalu to 1196 Gg of CO2
for Fiji. Per capita equivalent emissions range from0.23 tonnes of CO2 for Kiribati to 4.60 tonnes ofCO2 for Nauru. The range in per capita equivalentemissions is greater than those based on theequivalent CO2 emissions from petroleumconsumption, as provided in Johnston (1995). Inthat case the per capita emissions ranged between0.12 for Kiribati and 1.51 for Palau. While the dataare not strictly comparable (the petroleumconsumption data are for 1990 and under the IPCCguidelines not all the petroleum consumedcontributes to national GHG emissions), one wouldexpect some congruence. The relationships will beexplored later in this section.
Of the seven countries reporting methane emissionsfrom solid waste disposal systems, the lowestreported annual emissions was for the Cook Islands(0.275 Gg of CH4) while the highest was for Fiji (3.4GG of CH4). The equivalent per capita emissionsranged between 0.274 kg of CH4 for the Cook Islandsand 42.865 kg of CH4 per capita for Nauru.
Only four countries reported annual carbon releaseand uptake related to land use change and forestryactivities. Fiji reported 2902 kt per annum of carbonuptake while the three other countries (CookIslands, Samoa and Solomon Islands) reportedvalues less than 73 kt of carbon uptake a year. TheSolomon Islands inventory shows 2093 kt of carbonare released each year due to land use change andforestry, with the remaining three countriesindicating 178 kt per annum, or less.
Three of the four countries indicated that CO2
removals exceeded emissions due to land usechange and forestry, by as much as 9,989 Gg of CO2
per annum in the case of Fiji. The Solomon Islandsreported that emissions exceeded removals by7475.6 Gg of CO2 per annum.
4.1 Introduction
There are three intended outcomes from thisregional synthesis of the 10 National GHGInventories:
• a compilation of comparable and internallyconsistent data on GHG emissions and removalsfor the 10 Pacific Island countries;
• comparisons between individual Pacific Islandcountries, between these countries and thoseoutside the region, using information calculatedon both a national and per capita basis; and
• aggregation of the data for the 10 Pacific Islandcountries for comparison with estimates of globalemissions and removals of GHGs.
Despite problems and constraints with the qualityand completeness of the information provided in theinitial inventories, a synthesis of the available datawill be undertaken. The results are reported in thefollowing sections. For the reasons stated above andin Volume 2, these must be regarded as preliminary.
The available data for selected GHG emissions andremovals have been scaled against countrypopulations and land area, respectively. In this way,regionally averaged per capita rates of theanthropogenic emissions of GHG are estimated.Similarly, regionally averaged rates of removalshave been calculated on a per land area basis.
These derived data will be used for three purposes:
• to assess relative rates of emissions and removal,on a country-by-country basis;
• to compare regional estimates of per capitaemissions and removals per unit land area withcomparable global values; and
• to determine the relative contribution of thePacific Islands region to the global emissions andremovals of GHG.
For the synthesis, broad categories of emissions andremovals are used. This is consistent with the intentof a regional synthesis.
4. Regional synthesis of the national findings
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2 From SPREP (1999)3 Data are from the national GHG emissions inventories, adjusted as noted in Volume 2.4 Based on Johnston (1995)
per capita emissions from the energy sector andcompare these with global values.
Figure 4.1 presents the estimated total CO2
emissions from the energy sector, based on theoriginal and adjusted data.
• Two critical points arise from Figure 4.1B: thereis a relatively large country-to-country variationin per capita emissions of CO2 from the energysector; and
• a single data point (for Fiji) will have a majorinfluence on any estimate of average per capita
Unfortunately the small number of countriesproviding information on other emissions andremovals does not allow useful comparisons to bemade.
4.3 Regional estimates of per capitaemissions, and comparison withglobal values
Due to the dominance of the energy sector in theGHG emissions of Pacific Island countries, thefollowing analysis will derive regional estimates of
Population(000s)2
Methanefrom solid
wastedisposalsystems
(Gg of CH4)
Per capitamethaneemissionsfrom solid
wastedisposalsystems
(kg of CH4
per capita)
CO2
emissionsfrom energy
sector
(Gg ofCO2)3
CO2
emissionsper capita
for theenergysector
(tonnes ofCO2 percapita)3
1990petroleum
consumptionexpressed
asequivalent
CO2
emissions
(Gg ofCO2)4
Total carbonuptake
incrementfor land usechange and
forestry
(kt C)
Annualcarbon
release forland use
change andforestry
(kt C)
Net annualCO2
emission (-)or removal(+) for landuse changeand forestry
(Gg CO2)
Cook Islands 46.8 32.401 0.69 43.5 0.0128 0.274 42.120 N/A 154.4
Federated States 105.5 235.9 2.24 155.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/Aof Micronesia
Fiji 772.7 1196 1.55 996.9 3.4 4.400 2902 177.62 9989
Kiribati 77.7 18.56 0.23 32.6 0.4252 5.475 N/A N/A N/A
Marshall Islands 43.4 158 3.64 90.6 0.61598 14.193 N/A N/A N/A
Nauru 9.919 45.621 4.60 N/A 0.42518 42.865 N/A N/A N/A
Palau 17.2 N/A N/A 83.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Papua New Guinea 3608 N/A N/A 2494 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Samoa 161.298 102.386 0.64 112.4 1.1461 7.105 72.76 50.40 81.97
Solomon Islands 285.176 294.513 1.03 155.9 0.63236 2.217 54.0 2092.8 -7475.6
Tonga 97.8 N/A N/A 72.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tuvalu 9.043 4.509 0.50 7.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Vanuatu 142.419 56.7078 0.40 83.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Country
Note: CO2 = carbon dioxide; CH4 = methane; Gg = Gigagrams; Kt/C = Kilotonnes of carbon.N/A denotes data was not available at the time of this synthesis.
Table 4.1: Summary data on population and CO2 and CH4 emissions for given sectors.
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Figure 4.1: CO2 emissions from the energy sector of individual countries,with respect to their national populations.
A. Data as given in the national inventory reports –the anomalously high data points are for Marshall Islands and Samoa.
B. As for A, but the two anomalously high values for Marshall Islands and Samoaare assumed to be in GT rather than the reported units of TJ.
Figure 4.2: National petroleum consumption, expressed as equivalent CO2 emissions, andnational population. Data as listed in Table 4.1.
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equivalent emissions for the Pacific Islandsregion as a whole.
The former point reflects reality—population is farfrom perfect as an indicator of energy consumption,and hence CO2 emissions. In order to furtherinvestigate the second point, CO2 emissions wereestimated using the 1990 petroleum consumptiondata for 12 Pacific Island countries, as reported byJohnston (1995). Figure 4.2 compares petroleumconsumption by country (expressed as equivalentCO2 emissions) and national population. The dataare presented in Table 4.1.
The advantage of using these data is that they cover12 Pacific Island countries (as opposed to 10 for thePICCAP emissions inventory) and include a secondlarger country (Papua New Guinea). Thedisadvantage is that the data are not directlycomparable with those used to construct Figure 4.1.As noted in Section 3.2, energy sources are notlimited to petroleum. The data are for 1990 ratherthan 1994. Furthermore, in reality not all thepetroleum consumed is counted as emissionsagainst the energy sector (e.g. internationalbunkers).
Despite these shortcomings, the pattern of datapoints in Figure 4.2 is similar to that in Figure 4.1B.It is clear that per capita values are substantiallyhigher for Fiji than for Papua New Guinea,suggesting that the data point for Fiji in Figure4.1B may somewhat distort any estimate of averageper capita emissions for the Pacific region as awhole. This is confirmed by considering the resultsof regression analyses as reported in Table 4.2.
It is clear from Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2 that, atleast for estimates of CO2 emissions based onpetroleum consumption, the data for Papua NewGuinea is more consistent with those for the smallercountries than is that for Fiji. Moreover, as shownin Figure 3.1, of the four countries that reportedboth reference and sectoral estimates of CO2
emissions from the energy sector, Fiji was the onlyone that showed significant over-estimates by thereference method. This implies that fuelconsumption data alone may also over estimateemissions, more than might be the case for othercountries.
Until additional data can be provided to improvethe certainty of the relationship shown in Figure4.1B, and based on the results shown in Table 4.2,a slope of 0.96 will be assumed to best describe therelationship between population and CO2 emissionsfrom the energy sector. This implies a weightedaverage equivalent emission 0.96 tonnes of CO2 percapita—a range of 0.23 to 4.60 was reported inSection 4.2.
Based on a total Pacific Island population of 7.1million (SPREP, 1999) and the per capita equivalentemission of 0.96 tonnes of CO2 per year, the entirepopulation produces some 6.816 million tonnes (Mt)CO2 per year (Table 4.3).
Global CO2 emissions arising from fossil fuelcombustion only are reported to be 22620.46 Mt ofCO2 per year, or 4.02 tonnes of CO2 per capita peryear for 1996 (IEA, 1998).
Table 4.2: Results of regression analyses relating population to CO2 emissions
Dependent Independent Countries Slope Correlationvariable variable included coefficient
CO2 emissions from Population PICCAP countries 1.43 0.93
energy sector
As above As above As above excluding Fiji 0.96 0.46
Petroleum consumption as As above Countries in Table 4.1 0.72 0.96equivalent CO
2 emissions
As above As above As above excluding 1.16 0.92Papua New Guinea
As above As above Countries in Table 4.1 0.69 0.99excluding Fiji
As above As above Countries in Table 4.1 0.68 0.15excluding Papua NewGuinea and Fiji
15
Thus, on average, individual Pacific Islanders areresponsible for producing approximately onequarter of the CO2 emissions attributable to theaverage person worldwide. The Pacific Islandsregion as a whole account for some 0.03% of theglobal emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion. Thisis despite having around 0.12% of the world’spopulation.
By way of further comparison, OECD countries asa whole are responsible for nearly three times theper capita production of CO2 through the burningof fossil fuels. In terms of total CO2 emissions fromfuel consumption, these 29 OECD countries accountfor just over 50% of the global total, despite havingaround 20% of the world’s population.
These findings are the result of the first attempt toestimate CO2 emissions by the energy sector in thePacific Islands region, using internally consistentand comparable data. They show the smallcontributions Pacific Islanders make to globalemissions, both individually and collectively. Thepolicy implications of these and other findings ofthis report are discussed in the following section.
It may be possible to undertake similar analysesfor methane from solid waste disposal systems, andpossibly for CO2 removals and emissions from landuse change and forestry, but at present it is unclearif the methodology used above (and the availabledata) would support such an approach.
Population CO 2 equivalent CO 2 equivalentemissions per capita total emissions
(million) (t CO2) (Mt of CO2)
Pacific Island region5 7.1 0.96 6.816
World6 5624.44 4.02 22620.46
Table 4.3: Pacific Island and global estimates of CO2 equivalent emissions and emissionfactors for fuel combustion
5 Based on data from SPREP (1999) and from this report6 Based on IEA (1998).
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5. Regional policy implications
5.1 Implications for technical policiesand plans
The technical issues which must be addressed havealready been identified in Volume 2 of this Reportand were captured by the statement made in oneof the national reports:
‘acquisition of accurate data is definitely thehardest part of the inventory... the lack [ofdata] and poor data quality reflects limitedresources and capabilities so it must beemphasised from this exercise that futureinventories will be improved only if an effortis made now to improve data managementresources and skills’.
Another country also identified numerous problemsand constraints influencing preparation of theinventory and went on the make a series ofsuggestions and recommendations. These are allworthy of consideration by regional andinternational organisations:
• ‘Any future inventory that involves [the]gathering of confidential data as such must beweighed accordingly before deciding the duedate (due to delays in gaining approvals foraccess to the data). [The] aims and objectives ofthe inventory must be clearly defined and by allmeans brought to public awareness at large sothat sources for the data are fully aware andthus feel secure to provide relevant data. Publicawareness should be geared towards buildingconfidence and trust amongst each organisation.’
• ‘Any new project as such require[s] strongbacking from governments. This is because oftennew project[s] dealing with confidentialinformation bring about mixed reaction[s],confusion, uncertainty and above all suspicion.Wherever possible respective governmentsshould assist by all possible means.’
• ‘Collection of data is something that requires alot of moving around. Data do not come by itself(sic). Therefore it is recommended that [the]responsible organisation must consider mobilityshould it undertake [a] similar or relatedinventory.’
• ‘It was discovered during this inventory thatquite a number of the selected organisation[s]and even those prominent organisation[s] do notkeep proper records or do not have properformat[s] to keep records. It is hereby suggestedthat [the] Statistic Division of the Ministry ofFinance should develop a standard recordingsystem whereby each respective organisationshould comply accordingly. This would be veryhelpful to any future inventory. Every technicalministry must be involved in the establishmentof such standard recording systems.’
• ‘By all means and wherever possible, thoseresponsible to undertake (sic) such an inventoryshould have some teeth to bite. On that regard,the legislation or Acts of Parliament whichempower the Statistics Division to collect datashould also be used for [this] inventory, which isequally important and of national interest. Thisshould enable those engaged [in] the programto go in person and collect relevant dataaccordingly, otherwise questionnaire[s] must begiven ample time for the management of eachselected source and those engaged in theprogramme to develop mutual understanding.’
A third country made some pertinent commentsand suggestions on technical constraints:
‘one of the major barriers that need to beremoved is the lack of educational and publicawareness on climate change. In order toimprove the quality of inventory for futurereporting,... [the Government] must try todevelop more means of educational andpublic awareness by making use of theresources that are available. By doing this,we can be able to get the message right acrossto the key sectors or personnel and even rightdown to the end-users and involve them tocarry out the work. This, I believe willeliminate a lot of constraints and difficultiesarising during our future inventory on datacollection.’
The report went on to recommend the following:
• more attention should be paid by the NationalGovernment to obtaining the required political
17
support that would encourage the public andprivate sectors to develop mechanisms that willstrengthen the momentum and capacity that isbuilt and established under PICCAP to ensurethe continuity of the project once the PICCAPfunding comes to an end;
• more training of local consultants for GHGinventory is necessary. This is to increase in-country capacity for carrying out these dutiesand therefore ensuring sustainability forPICCAP national communication reporting;
• having committed ourselves to this project, it isa need for the Government to be clarified on theissue of climate change and more importantlyon activities to be implemented under mitigationand adaptation options.
From another perspective (IPCC, 1998), codes ofgood practice have been recommended as a way ofimproving the availability of underlying data forinventories. These codes would be intended to helpcountries prepare national inventories, developemission factors and conduct direct emissionsmeasurements. They would be based oninternationally accepted procedures. Moreover, theycould be applied to obtain data in regions such asthe Pacific, where no or little data exists, and toextending the existing global databases on activitydata and emissions factors.
An IPCC expert group meeting (IPCC, 1998) hasalso recommended that further referenceapproaches also be developed, in addition to thatwhich already exists for the energy sector. Thepresent report has shown (Fig. 3.1) how the use ofboth procedures can act as a verification procedure,in this case for CO2 emissions from the energysector. Reference approaches for other sectors couldalso be used for verification.
5.2 Implications for developmentpolicies and plans
Section 2.3 gives a number of reasons whycompletion of a National GHG Inventory is in thebest interest of a developing country. One reason isthat the results of such inventories provide acomprehensive set of national data that can be usedin the preparation of national sustainabledevelopment strategies and for assessing thesuccess of these strategies over time. The relevanceof the inventory to the development,implementation and review of national sustainabledevelopment strategies is direct and readilyapparent. For example, the inventory can assistcountries to recognise opportunities to increase theefficiency of existing energy supply systems and toconsider opportunities for substituting less costly
fuels. Such applications are one focus of thediscussion in Sections 5.3 and 5.4.
Another focus is the use of information gained viathe inventory to guide the positions taken inregional and international discussions, negotiationsand cooperative programmes related toenvironmental protection and other aspects ofsustainable development. This will be the focus ofthe discussion in Section 5.5.
Ellis (1999) has evaluated a wide range of measuresthat could reduce GHG emissions by Pacific Islandcountries and has defined a set of criteria to selectmeasures that might be included in a regionalprogramme of GHG mitigation. Of necessity, hisanalysis was based on carbon emissions inferredfrom national data on petroleum consumption(Johnston, 1995). Using these data, he estimatedthat in 1990 emissions of carbon (or of CO2) byPacific Island countries represented about 0.02%of total world emissions. The 1994 estimate reportedabove (Section 4), which is based on the 10 nationalinventories but extrapolated to include all PacificIsland countries, was 0.03%. The difference isinsignificant, as are the differences in per capitaemissions. Johnston (1999) questions thecomparability of the regional and global data usedby Ellis. With the availability of inventory dataprepared using international standardised bestpractices, many of these concerns can now be laidto rest.
Regardless of any remaining inconsistencies, themessage is clear and incontrovertible—PacificIsland countries and their inhabitants are minorplayers when it comes to GHG emissions, either asa region or on a per capita basis.
However, this does not mean that Pacific Islandcountries can or should sit back and rest on thereputation of being minor emitters of greenhousegases. As the following sections indicate, PacificIsland countries have many good reasons for takingconcerted action now that they have moresubstantive information on which to base theiractions.
5.3 National issues, priorities andplans
Pacific Island countries are ‘minor’ emitters, in botha relative and absolute sense. Thus any steps theytake to reduce their emissions will have a negligibleeffect on atmospheric composition. However, otherquite distinctive reasons may well give rise to thesame decisions to reduce emissions.
Economic factors may, for example, drive thedecision to increase the efficiency of existing energy
18
supply systems and to consider opportunities forsubstituting less costly fuels. The informationavailable as a result of the GHG inventory will helpdetermine the cost effectiveness of the variousoptions (see Section 5.4) and, in turn, guide decisionmaking related to investment and other initiatives.
Political factors may also influence the decision toreduce emissions through improved efficienciesand/or use of fuels that produce emissions with alower global warming potential. For example, thecredibility of a country, or the region as a whole,will be enhanced if there is a demonstratedwillingness to act in concert with other countriesrather than pleading special circumstances. Theefforts of minor emitters of GHG in the PacificIslands region to reduce GHG emissions would actas a moral imperative and provide impetus for othercountries to take some domestic action in reducingtheir overall emissions. Moral considerations may,in themselves, lead to a decision to reduceemissions. The atmosphere is part of the globalcommons; thus a country may well decide to act asa good global citizen and reduce its emissions, nomatter how small the inventory data show thoseemissions to be.
The available data (see Table 4.1) also reveal thatsome Pacific Island countries (notably those withlarger volcanic islands as opposed to apredominance of small atolls) have the potentialfor large GHG removals through appropriate landand forest management practices. Forests have thepotential to provide GHG mitigation through theuse of the wood as a cooking and industrial fueland through increases in the standing biomass.Hence the re-establishment of forests is an effectivemitigation measure, while a mature forest withstable biomass is neutral in terms of emissions andremovals. On the other hand, forests that are beingharvested, cleared for agriculture or damaged byfire are net emitters of greenhouse gases.
Continued use of fuel wood, rather than a shift toelectricity or fossil fuels for cooking and waterheating, is advantageous from a mitigationperspective. As Ellis (1999) notes, rural people inparticular should therefore be encouraged tomaintain adequate supplies of fuelwood.
The inventory data, as it becomes increasinglyavailable, should provide an opportunity to quantifythe extent to which landuse changes, forestry anduse of traditional fuels in Pacific Island countries
are contributing to net increases or decreases inatmospheric GHG concentrations. Though themagnitude of the resulting changes will inevitablybe small from a global perspective, the findings maywell be instrumental in setting policies andimplementing plans that achieve larger reductionsin global net emissions.
Baseline and subsequent inventories arefundamental to being able to track the benefits andcosts of mitigation strategies that have beenimplemented.
5.4 Energy use and demand
Mitigation measures related to energy can besubdivided into demand side and supply sideoptions.
The former include improved efficiencies and fuelsubstitutions in the transport and industrialsectors, labelling schemes, improved designs ofenergy-consuming consumer goods and educationand awareness programmes. Such measures canbe more targeted and more accurately costed if theinformation provided by a National GHG Inventoryis available to decision makers and planners.
Supply side options include increased efficienciesand fuel substitution in existing energy systems.Again the feasibility, costs and benefits of suchoptions are more readily assessed if reliable andcomprehensive GHG inventory data are at hand.
5.5 Other policy implications
As noted in Section 5.2, the findings arising fromanalysis of the inventory data at either national orregional level can be influential with respect toforeign policy and intergovernmental negotiations.Armed with credible and comprehensiveinformation on national and regional GHGemissions, especially in relation to those of theOECD and other countries, representatives ofPacific Island countries will now be able tosubstantiate their claims that Pacific islanders are‘innocent victims’ of global warming. The inventorydata will provide a sound basis for Pacific Islandgovernments to identify their priorities for foreignassistance and investments related to sustainabledevelopment in general, and mitigation inparticular.
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6. Capacity building implications
In order to maximise their value, GHG emissionsinventories must be repeated, and the quality ofthe information and methods continually improved.Section 3 and Volume 2 highlight a number offactors that impede the successful undertaking andreporting of emissions inventories in Pacific Islandcountries.
In summary, the impediments include inadequateinformation acquisition and management systems,limitations on resources (financial, technical andhuman), institutional shortcomings, inadequaciesin the methodologies and a deficiency in the levelof governmental and private sector commitment toaddressing the negative implications of globalwarming. Thus increasing the capacity of PacificIsland countries to be more active and fruitfulpartners in addressing climate change issuesrequires a comprehensive effort across a variety offronts.
The analysis conducted in the present studysuggests that the priority areas relate to ensuringthat the necessary information is readily availableand there is the required expertise to process andanalyse it. A close second would be improvedmethodologies and changing government andprivate sector priorities and practices to ensureclimate change response strategies are integratedinto national development planning.
6.1 Future inventory work
Future inventories will have value only if they areconducted by individuals who have the expertiseto apply and adapt the internationally approvedinventory methods. The key criteria for inventoryquality are completeness, consistency, transparencyand comparability (IPCC, 1997). The inventoriesstudied in this report fall short of the expectedstandards, across all criteria. This is to be expectedsince most countries are undertaking theinventories for the first time. However, in order tomake maximum use of the information acquiredthrough the present inventory process, and toensure that future inventories are comparable yetimproved, it is important that expertise continueto be built in-country. This will not only ensure thatthere are people who can undertake the detailed
data processing required by the methodology, butalso that there are individuals who are capable andcommitted to acquiring and supplying the necessaryinformation. Furthermore, each country shouldhave available individuals who are able to interpretthe findings of the inventory and ensure they arereflected in national policies, plans, decisions andin international negotiations.
Improved information acquisition and managementsystems are also required. These need to be anintegral part of the national information gatheringprocedures, operating under that authority and ina way that ensures consistency and completenessin the records.
6.2 UNFCCC process
The findings of the national GHG emissionsinventories should be incorporated in nationalcommunications and reflected in the nationalimplementation strategies. This is the means bywhich the international community can be madeaware of the extent to which human activities aremodifying atmospheric composition (and henceradiative forcing), and the nature of nationalresponses to the threat of climate change.
Developing countries may also have a moral, if notlegal responsibility to reduce their GHG emissionsand enhance removals. There will be many reasonswhy it is appropriate to demonstrate theeffectiveness of these strategies.
However, in order to participate in these activitiesand achieve the desired outcomes, countries musthave the necessary expertise and other resources.There must also be the political will and theinstitutional support for undertaking the steps toachieve compliance with the Convention andinternational best practices.
Non-Annex I Parties continue to identify a lack ofexperts and trained personnel as one of the mainproblems and constraints in the process forpreparation of initial national communications.Availability of data, including emission factors forgreenhouse gases and the activity data and otherinformation necessary to apply such factors, was
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frequently cited as another reason for delay. TheConvention Secretariat has noted this slow progresstowards completion and submission of nationalcommunications. This is despite the efforts beingmade by the Global Environment Facility (GEF),and its implementing agencies, to facilitate theprocess.
Initiatives such as PICCAP and the supportprogrammes, which include CC:TRAIN, areinstrumental in ensuring that Pacific Islandcountries develop increased capacity to meet notonly their obligations under the UNFCCC, but alsoensure that climate change response strategies aremain-streamed in the national developmentplanning process.
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A number of possible projects discussed andpresented here have arisen from the precedingevaluation and synthesis. The intention is not torepeat suggestions included in the MitigationAnalysis Report by Ellis (1999). His proposalsaddress broader issues for mitigation. The proposalspresented here highlight specific issues that needto be addressed and activities that need to becontinued, improved and sustained at the countryand institutional levels. This will allow continuedimprovement of the GHG inventory process and itsintegration into sustainable development processes.
• Development of PIC-specific emission factors forall source/sink categories. The default valuesused at present do not necessarily reflect theconditions from which activity data isestablished. Using such values exacerbates theproblems associated with uncertainties, qualityassurance and other methodological problems.
7. Possible projects related to greenhouse gas inventories
• Strengthening of institutions/agenciesresponsible for maintaining and managingactivity, inventory and related data. The task ofcollecting and storing data should be sharedamong various agencies with respect to source/sink categories.
• Target public awareness of the implicationsarising from the GHG inventories and links withnational sustainable development. This is vitalto the strengthening of efforts in this area.Support and political will is required from policymakers, the government and from the privatesector for further inventory work.
• Identification, building and strengthening thecapacity of national institutions, agencies andindividuals/personnel to undertake GHGinventories. This is a critical component for thecontinual improvement and sustainability of theinventory process over the long term.
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8. Conclusions and recommendations
Through PICCAP and other initiatives at theregional and national level, considerable progresshas been made in the ability to conduct and reporton national inventories of GHG emissions andremovals that meet needs at the national, regionaland international levels.
The 10 countries that have participated in thisprogramme now have available to themquantitative information on anthropogenic sourcesand sinks of GHGs. Equally importantly, there isnow an estimate of the regional contribution toemissions that cause undesirable changes in theatmospheric composition.
The available data indicate that, collectively andindividually, Pacific Islanders are making minimalcontributions to greenhouse gas emissions relativeto other regions and the globe as a whole. At thesame time, some Pacific Island countries are likely
to be removing measurable quantities of GHGs fromthe atmosphere, through changes in land use andthrough forestry activities.
While considerable progress has been made, theinventories completed to date have manyshortcomings. These result from such problems asinadequate information acquisition andmanagement systems, limitations on resources(financial, technical and human), institutionalshortcomings, inadequacies in the methodologiesand a deficiency in the level of governmental andprivate sector commitment to addressing thenegative implications of global warming. There isa need for these impediments to be addressed sothat more can be gained from the present inventoryand future inventories perform better when judgedagainst the criteria of completeness, consistency,transparency and comparability.
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Ellis, M. 1999. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in thePICCAP Countries. Report prepared for theSouth Pacific Regional EnvironmentProgramme, Apia, Samoa.
International Energy Agency 1998. Key WorldEnergy Statistics from the IEA. 1998 Edn, Paris,France.
IPCC 1997. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines forNational Greenhouse Gas Inventories (vols. 1–3). Eds. Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Lim,B., Treanton, K., Mamaty, I., Bonduki, Y., Griggs,D.J. and Callander, B.A., Paris, France.
IPCC 1998. Meeting Report, Expert Group Meetingon Methods for the Assessment of InventoryQuality. IPCC/OECD/IEA Programme onNational Greenhouse Gas Inventories,Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
9. References
Johnston, P. 1995. Sustainable Development andEnergy Use in the Pacific Islands: A PreliminaryExamination of Opportunities and Constraints.
Johnston, P. 1999. Review of Greenhouse GasMitigation in the PICCAP Countries. Reportprepared for the South Pacific RegionalEnvironment Programme, Apia, Samoa.
Kumar, M. 1999. Adapting the Greenhouse GasInventory Methodology and Training Package forthe Pacific Island Countries. Report preparedfor the Pacific Island Climate Change AssistanceProgramme (PICCAP), South Pacific RegionalEnvironment Programme, Apia, Samoa.
SPREP 1999. South Pacific Environment Outlook.South Pacific Regional EnvironmentProgramme, Apia, Samoa.