evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting ... · nagore sabio, paul dodds ucl energy...

Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting methodology in energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a scenario approach: A case study of UK

Nagore Sabio, Paul DoddsUCL Energy Institute

International Energy Workshop (IEW) 2016University College Cork, 1-3 June 2016

International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND

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ContextInternational and UK policy landscape• EU emission reduction targets

• EU RED targets

1990 2020 2030 2050

-20%-40%-80%-95%

20%27%

UKCCA, 2008

UKEnergy consumptionfrom renewables

15%


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Role of bioenergy in the UK

• CCC bioenergy review 2011It will be difficult to meet the overall 2050 emissions target unless bioenergy can account for around 10% (200 TWh) of total UK primary energy (compared to the current 2%) and CCS is a feasible technology.

• 5th Carbon Budget 2015Sustainable bioenergy can play an important role. However, there are limits to the sustainable supply (e.g. this could provide around 10% of primary energy in 2050), so its role must be supplementary to other measures. Bioenergy should be allocated to options where it has the largest impact on reducing emissions.

• ETI ‘Delivering GHG emission savings through UK bioenergy value chains’Bioenergy could be deployed to deliver net negative emissions of around -55MtCO2eq/yrin 2050 and meet around 10% of UK energy demand (≈130 TWh/yr in 2050)


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Motivation

• Bioenergy combined with CCS is a key vector in energysystem decarbonisation pathways

• Advantages

• Challenges

Economic à Low costTechnical à Easy to integrate in current

infrastructureEnvironmental à Potential for negative emissions

Land competition à Food, energy, non-marketsubsistence farming & biodiversity

Uncertain emissions à Direct emissions fromcombustion

à dLUC arising from changes in land management practiceassociated to prior use

à iLUC additional land use elsewhere when displaced agricultural activity

Bioenergyis not a single resource orprocess !!


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Modelling bioenergy emissions à I – Resources

– Emissions from cultivation of food crops (CCC, 2011; RED/Biograce, E4Tech, Ecofys)

𝑅𝐸𝐷𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑒1𝑎𝑛𝑑2𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑖𝐿𝑈𝐶𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑠𝐵𝐸𝐴𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐶𝐶𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦


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– Average indirect land use change estimates for biofuels

Modelling bioenergy emissions à II – Biofuels


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UK Bioenergy strategy• BEAC model à Soil and Land biomass C stock changes

à Land emissionsà Different harvest periodsà Allows to investigate different GWP time

horizons: 20, 40, 100 years

àDoes not account for changes in average forest carbonstock

à Indirect impacts

Modelling bioenergy emissions à III – Forestry


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UKTM – The UK TIMES Model• Overview

Integrated energy systems model - Least cost optimization - Partial equilibrium model - Technology rich - sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

• History & future of policy analysis: Successor to UK MARKAL- MARKAL’s strong policy heritage- UKTM has a strong future in policy: - DECC have undertaken UKTM as core tool

• New functionality of TIMES & UKTM- All GHG emissions; storage; flexibility; bioenergy chains- Linkages with European & global TIMES models- Assumptions explicit- QA protocol at the heart of development


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Structure of model and sectors

Simplified Reference Energy System


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Bioenergy resources UKTM (I)

Domestic

Woodyenergycrops

Arablecrop

Residues

Waste

1G

2G

3G Aquaticcrop

Oilcrop

• Sugarbeet• Wheat,

maize,potato• Rapeseed

• Poplar/willow• MiscanthusUKenergycrops

Stemwood

Sawmillco-product

Wastewood

Livestockmanure

Arboricultural arisings

ForestryresiduesTallow

Dryagriculturalresidue

Renewablefractionofwaste

Non-renewablefractionofwaste

Shortrotationforestry(SRC)

Sugarcrop

Starchcrop

UsedcokingoilFoodwaste

SewagesludgeLandfillgas

Macroalgae

Microalgae

• OnlyinAUB


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Bioenergy resources UKTM (II)

International imports

International exports

Residues2G

Agriculturalresidues

1GBioethanol

WoodybiomassWoody

energycrops

Arablecrop1GCurrentoilcrops

Emergingoilcrops

Talloil

Commodities

BioethanolCommodities


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Bioenergy processing technologies UKTM Domestic

Pelletization

Pre-treatment

Liquidbiofuel

Gas

Upgrade

Oilcroppyrolysis

• Notcleartheprocessesincluded:chipping,oilextraction,…?

• BiogasfromADhas4modes

Lowqualitypellets

Ethanolfromstarch

Ethanolfromsugar

Ethanolfromgrass

EthanolfromHQpellets

MethanolfromHQpellets

Biokerosene 2G

Highqualitypellets

Strawwastepretreatment

Woodwastepretreatment

BiogasfromADSyngasfrompellets

Biodiesel2GBiodiesel1G

BioLFOfrombioil upgrade

Biomethane fromsyngasupgrade • UpgraderouteforBioLFOneedsreview

• VerydifferentdetaillevelthanAUB/BVCM:difficultarmonization

Ethanolfromstrawwaste

Biooil frompyrolysisoil

Biogasfromlandfill

Biomethane frombiogasupgrade


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Results: Bioenergy scenarios

Scenario ID Scenario Name Emissions description Resource availability Constraints

Scenario I Zero-Carbon Base Bioenergy emissions offset during biomass growth

CCC (2011) ‘Extended Land Use scenario assumptions

UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050

Scenario II RED Scope 1,2 Life cycle bioenergy emissions, dLUC, CH4 and N2O.

Unlimited bioenergy resource availability.

UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050.

Scenario III CCC iLUC + BEAC Scenario II + 1st generation iLUC + forestry carbon stock and land use (BEAC)

CCC (2011) iLUC factors for 1st generation bioethanol and biodiesel, and land biomass carbon stock change and land use emissions for forestry resource from Stephenson and McKay (2014) added.

Unlimited bioenergy resource availability.

UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050.


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Primary energy consumption

012345678910

PJTh

ousand

s

ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase*Extendedlanduseavailability

012345678910

PJTh

ousand

sUKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2

Nuclear

Renewables

Oilandoilproducts

Liquidhydrogenimports

NaturalGas

Electricityimport

Coalandcoke

Biomassandbiofuels

012345678910

UKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2*Unlimited bioenergy resource

012345678910

UKTMScenarioIII- CCCiLUC +BEaC*Unlimited bioenergy resource


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CO2 emissions by sector

-200

0

200

400

600

MtC

O2

UKTMScenarioIII- CCCiLUC+BEaC

-200-100

0100200300400500600

MtC

O2

UKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2Non-energyuse

Upstream

Processing

Hydrogen

Transport

Residential

Industry

Electricity

Services

Agriculture&LandUseTotalnetemissions

Total(excludingCCS)

-1000

100200300400500600

MtC

O2

ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase


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Carbon prices

-255075100125150175200225250

Carbonprice[£/tCO2eq]

ScenarioIII- CCCiLUC+BEaC

ScenarioII- REDScope1,2

ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase


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Bioenergy mix

0

400

800

1200

1600

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

2015 2030 2050

UKBioresourceimportmix

Forestryresourcesandresidues Foodandfoddercrops Energycrops Waste

0

200

400

600

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

Zero-Carbo

n

CCCiLU

C+BE

aC RED

2015 2030 2050

UKDomesticBioresourcemix

Forestryresourcesandresidues Foodandfoddercrops Energycrops Waste


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Conclusions

Lessons learnt & next steps

ü The model has not many other ‘cheap’ options to decarbonise the energy systemand maximises the use of the available bioenergy resource

ü The inclusion of indirect impacts shifts the bioenergy mix towards the use of more sustainable resources (i.e., agricultural and forestry residues, waste), but these needto be evaluated carefully

ü The real costs of indirect impacts are reflected in higher carbon pricesü The modelling of indirect impacts decouples Bioenergy & CCS, providing a more

wholistically optimal energy systemü Biofuel availability is key for the decarbonisation of the transport sector.

ü Need to harmonize process and resources boundaries with available datasetsü Need to balance other resource use impacts and limitations (i.e., waste processing

emissions, agricultural and forestry residues usage analysis, etc)ü Disaggregate further bioenergy classification for imports to account for geographical

variationsü Incorporate carbon stock dynamics into emission projections

Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting methodology in energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a scenario approach: A case study of UK

Nagore Sabio

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION


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Corine Land Cover 2012


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UKTM Bioenergy technology routes

Existing• Pretreatments• Biodiesel production• Bioethanol production• Biogas production (landfill)

New• Fermentation to ethanol• Hydrolysis to ethanol• Fermentation to methanol• Hydrogenation and production of 1st generation biodiesel• Gasification and FT 2nd generation biodiesel and biokerosene• Gasification to biomethane• Pellet pyrolysis to biooil• AD to biogas


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UKTM bioenergy products and market demands

• Bioenergy is consumed in the following sectors– Electricity– Processing– Services– Transport – Domestic – Industrial– Agriculture*

• In the form of– Food, Power, Fuel (biofuels or hydrogen), heat.

• Further whole system analysis…


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Bioenergy mix


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Notes introduction (I)

• Socio-economic impacts• Environmental impacts• Water-energy nexus opportunities for biomass:• asdadf


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evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting ... · nagore sabio, paul dodds ucl energy...

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