evalua&on)of)gaseous)and)par&culate)emission) inventories ... ·...
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Evalua&on of gaseous and par&culate emission inventories over the Eastern Mediterranean basin
Luca Pozzoli1, Alper Ünal1, Tayfun Kındap1, and Ulaş Im2 [1] Eurasia Ins-tute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. [2] Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, University of Crete, Greece. (Contact: [email protected])
1.OBJECTIVES A good es3mate of anthropogenic emissions is crucial for simula3ng ozone and aerosol concentra3ons. Although high-‐resolu3on European emission inventories exist and they have been applied in several studies, their quality has not been evaluated uniformly for all the regions.
The Eastern Mediterranean is expected to be affected significantly by climate change and it is a region in which the emission inventories have higher uncertainty due to lack of informa3on.
In this study three exis3ng emission inventories are evaluated over the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We evaluate the effect of different resolu3on and spa3al distribu3on of emission fluxes on the ozone and aerosol concentra3ons.
2.METHODS Model domain: 30 x 30 km horizontal
resolution covering all Europe (Fig.1) High resolution nested domain (d02 Fig.1):
10 x 10 km horizontal resolution Meteorological fields reproduced with WRF
model Chemical composition of the atmosphere
calculated with CMAQ4.7.1 2 months simulated: January and July 2009 3 different emission inventories Fig. 1: Model domain used for WRF meteorological and CMAQ air quality
simula3ons
3.EMISSION INVENTORIES Inventories for 10 anthropogenic emission sectors (CORINAIR) of gases (CO, NOx, SOx, NMVOC, NH3) and aerosols (PM2.5 and PMcoarse) representa3ve of year 2005 (Fig.2, 3):
1. EMEP (Fig3a): 0.5° Lat x 0.5° Lon
2. INERIS/EMEP (Fig3b): 0.1° Lat x 0.1° Lon
3. TNO/MACC (Fig3c): 1/8° Lat x 1/16° Lon
Fig. 2: Total annual emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM2.5 [Mg/year] by sector for Turkey (TK), and other countries of the Balkan Peninsula (Greece, GR; Bulgaria, BG; Romania, RO; Cyprus, CY; Macedonia, MK; Serbia and Montenegro , YU; Albania, AL; Hungary, HU; Bosnia Herzegovina, BH; Croa3a, HR). E=EMEP, I=INERIS/EMEP, T=TNO/MACC.
a)
b)
c)
Fig. 3: Total annual NOx [Mg/km2/year] emissions from the 3 inventories in their original horizontal resolu3ons: a) EMEP; b) INERIS/EMEP; c) TNO/MACC.
At 30 x 30 km resolu3on, the O3 and PM2.5 concentra3ons simulated with INERIS/EMEP preserves the general geographical pajerns of EMEP simula3on. TNO simula3on show large differences in par3cular over Turkey.
At 10 x 10 km resolu3on, large differences between TNO/MACC and INERIS/EMEP O3 concentra3ons (Fig.4) are found over Central Anatolia (>10 ppbv), and in the South Eastern Mediterranean region (>8 ppbv). Over Istanbul and Izmir we have lower concentra3ons (up to -‐12 pbbv). Distribu3on of NOx emissions is par3cularly important in winter.
At 10 x 10 km resolu3on, TNO/MACC simula3on shows a large number of PM sources which are not present in INERIS/EMEP (Fig.5). The differences in monthly mean PM2.5 are up to 5 µg m-‐3, both in winter and summer. Fig. 4: Monthly mean O3 surface concentra3ons (ppbv) calculated by the CMAQ model at 10 x10 km resolu3on for January (top row) and July
(bojom row) of year 2009. In the first column are shown the results using TNO/MACC emissions. The second column shows the differences between the TNO/MACC and INERIS/EMEP experiments.
Fig. 5: Monthly mean PM2.5 surface concentra3ons (µg m-‐3) calculated by the CMAQ model at 10 x10 km resolu3on for January (top row) and July (bojom row) of year 2009. In the first column are shown the results using TNO/MACC emissions. The second column shows the differences between the TNO/MACC and INERIS/EMEP experiments.
6.OMI SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS: NO2 7.CONCLUSIONS
Acknowledgements: We would like to thank EMEP (www.emep.int) for providing the emissions inventory. The con-nental scale EMEP/INERIS emissions inventory was provided by G. Siour (LISA/IPSL/INERIS) and B. Bessagnet (INERIS) and the CItyZen project. The TNO/MACC_2005 emissions inventory was provided by H. Denier van der Gon at TNO.
Fig. 6: Total column NO2 concentra3ons averaged for January 2009 from OMI satellite observa3ons.
Fig. 7: Monthly mean anomaly (January 2009) of total column NO2 concentra3ons expressed as the ra3o over the standard devia3on, ([NO2]-‐mean[NO2]reg)/SDreg. a) NO2 OMI satellite data; b) NO2 simulated using TNO/MACC_2005 emissions; c) NO2 simulated using INERIS/EMEP emissions.
a) b) c)
All the three emission inventories largely underes3mate NO2 concentra3ons as compared to OMI (Fig.6).
NO2 geographical distribu3on is not captured for many regions of the Balkans and Turkey (Fig.7).
NO2 distribu3on from TNO/MACC are slightly bejer over Turkey (larger Istanbul plume, Izmir) and Greece (Athens and Thessaloniki).
Istanbul
Ankara
Izmir
Athens
Thessaloniki
Adana Mersin
Bucharest
4.MODEL RESULTS
Janu
ary 2009
July 2009
PM2.5 OZONE
The three inventories provides similar total annual emissions, the main difference consists in the geographical distribu3ons.
The variability of monthly mean O3 concentra3ons due to different emission inventory is in the range of ±12 ppbv (Fig.4), ±5 µg m-‐3 for PM2.5 (Fig.5).
Over the Eastern Mediterranean the 3 emission inventories underes3mate the pollutant concentra3ons. TNO/MACC shows slightly bejer results in terms of geographical distribu3on of the pollutants, however a bejer emission inventory for Turkey is needed.
“Development of Na3onal Air Pollu3on Emissions Management System”:
Funded by the Turkish Ministry of Environment (4M Euro), 36 months (2012-‐2015)
Define ac3vi3es and emission factors for anthropogenic emission.
Pilot region: Marmara (Istanbul, Bursa, >60% popula3on and GDP of Turkey).
On-‐line system for the Turkish Ministry of Environment and emissions for AQM.
EMISSION PROCESSING SOFTWARE
EMISSION INVENTORY DATABASE
DATA SOURCES
ACTIVITIES
EMISSION FACTORS
OTHER DATA (popula&on, roads, …)
EMISSION CALCULATION SOFTWARE
POINT SOURCES
AREA SOURCES
MOBILE SOURCES
NATURAL SOURCES
QUALITY CONTROL
INTEGRATION
AIR QUALITY MODEL
Time profiles
Vert. profiles
Gridding
Chem. Spec.
WEB PORTAL (GIS)
REPORTS: