Europeanization and the FuturEuropeanization and the Future of Central and Eastern Europe of Central and Eastern Europ

ee

Kong TianpingKong Tianping

Institute of European StudiesInstitute of European StudiesChinese Academy of Social SciencesChinese Academy of Social Sciences

FactsheetFactsheet Great transformation (1989-1990)Great transformation (1989-1990)

Copenhagen criteria as rules to define whether a giveCopenhagen criteria as rules to define whether a given country is eligible to join the EU (June 1993)n country is eligible to join the EU (June 1993)

2004 CEE8 joined the EU, big eastward expansion2004 CEE8 joined the EU, big eastward expansion

2007 Romania and Bulgaria became the member state2007 Romania and Bulgaria became the member states of the EU.s of the EU.

Schengen enlargement, CEE 8 joined the ScheSchengen enlargement, CEE 8 joined the Schengen area (December 2007)ngen area (December 2007)

EU and Croatia concluded accession negotiatiEU and Croatia concluded accession negotiations (June 30, 2011)ons (June 30, 2011)

Introduction of the Euro (Slovenia Jan. 2007, Introduction of the Euro (Slovenia Jan. 2007, Slovakia, Jan. 2009, Estonia Jan. 2011)Slovakia, Jan. 2009, Estonia Jan. 2011)

Presidency of the Council of the European UniPresidency of the Council of the European Union (Slovenia 2008; Czech Republic 2009; Hunon (Slovenia 2008; Czech Republic 2009; Hungary and Poland 2011)gary and Poland 2011)

How to define Europeanization?How to define Europeanization?

Europeanization is a means and an end; it is mEuropeanization is a means and an end; it is method as well as substance; it is a project and a ethod as well as substance; it is a project and a vision. It signifies a certain political, socioeconvision. It signifies a certain political, socioeconomic, and cultural reality, but it is also an ideolomic, and cultural reality, but it is also an ideology, a symbol, and a myth. It has universal valogy, a symbol, and a myth. It has universal value by virtue of its historical, holistic, and globaue by virtue of its historical, holistic, and globalizing nature. At the same time, its impact has ilizing nature. At the same time, its impact has internal consequences for Europe and an externnternal consequences for Europe and an external significance for the rest of the world. (Othon al significance for the rest of the world. (Othon Anastasaki)Anastasaki)

Europeanization as "processes of (a) constructiEuropeanization as "processes of (a) construction (b) diffusion and (c) implementation of foron (b) diffusion and (c) implementation of formal and informal rules, procedures, policy parmal and informal rules, procedures, policy paradigms, styles, "ways of doing things," and shaadigms, styles, "ways of doing things," and shared beliefs and norms (Radaelli)red beliefs and norms (Radaelli)

Europeanization as an end: different statuses frEuropeanization as an end: different statuses from candidate to membershipom candidate to membership

Europeanization as a means of insititutional chEuropeanization as a means of insititutional change and modernazation: transition to democraange and modernazation: transition to democracy and market economy. CEE experiencescy and market economy. CEE experiences

Europeanization as a two-way process:Europeanization as a two-way process:

EU: imposition of eu criteria, norms, rules of gEU: imposition of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, legislaturesame, legislatures

CEE: Introduction of eu criteria, norms, rules oCEE: Introduction of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, implementation of eu legislaturesf game, implementation of eu legislatures

Some misconceptionsSome misconceptions

Accession means the end of EuropeanizationAccession means the end of Europeanization

Accession means the end of the institutional changeAccession means the end of the institutional change

Accession would mean all the country's problems Accession would mean all the country's problems would be solved.would be solved.

Europeanization is the way towards prosperityEuropeanization is the way towards prosperity

How does Europeanization transHow does Europeanization transform CEE?form CEE?

Institutional convergence: make the institutionInstitutional convergence: make the institutions more europeanizeds more europeanized

Policy convergence: Policy convergence:

Identity formationIdentity formation

Political elite's european orientationPolitical elite's european orientation

accelerate catchaccelerate catching-up processing-up process

growth matters for the catchgrowth matters for the catching-uping-up

Catch-up Process in CEE 10Catch-up Process in CEE 10 (GDP per capita in PPP, % of the EU-15 (GDP per capita in PPP, % of the EU-15

average)average)

CountryCountry 19891989 19971997 20032003 20072007 20082008

Czech RepuCzech Republicblic

7575 6363 6565 7373 73.973.9

EstoniaEstonia 5454 3636 4848 6565 61.061.0

HungaryHungary 5656 4545 5656 5757 56.456.4

LithuaniaLithuania 5252 3333 4343 5454 50.450.4

PolandPoland 3838 4141 4343 4949 50.150.1

SlovakiaSlovakia 5959 4545 4949 6161 64.064.0

SloveniaSlovenia 7474 6767 7171 8282 82.582.5

BulgariaBulgaria 4646 2323 2929 3434 35.635.6

RomaniaRomania 3434 2323 2828 3636 38.538.5

There is no guarantee for the catch-upThere is no guarantee for the catch-up

closing the development gap between the CEE-10 and closing the development gap between the CEE-10 and the EU-15 countries remains the main challengethe EU-15 countries remains the main challenge

A short break from 2008-2009, CEE felt the pinch of tA short break from 2008-2009, CEE felt the pinch of the global financial crisishe global financial crisis

Catch-up process starts againCatch-up process starts again

Europeanization and Prospect of Europeanization and Prospect of CEECEE

Europe is in crisisEurope is in crisis

How serious is the crisis?How serious is the crisis?

Europe's Sovereign Debt CrisisEurope's Sovereign Debt Crisis ，， PIIGs in troublePIIGs in trouble

Greece: Greece:

huge mountain of debt 340 bn euros; huge mountain of debt 340 bn euros;

two bailout (110bn euros for each programme)two bailout (110bn euros for each programme)

Greece's ability to repay its debt is questionedGreece's ability to repay its debt is questioned

Possible scenario: default or exit from euro zonePossible scenario: default or exit from euro zone

Irish RepublicIrish Republic

Banking sysytem collapsedBanking sysytem collapsed

State took control and recapitalized them(70bn eState took control and recapitalized them(70bn euros)uros)

IMF and EU bailout (85bn euros)IMF and EU bailout (85bn euros)

PortugalPortugal

A shrinking economy straining its budgetA shrinking economy straining its budget

Bailout 78bn eurosBailout 78bn euros

ItalyItaly

Growing debt load in relation to GDP - the seconGrowing debt load in relation to GDP - the second-highest behind Greece in the eurozoned-highest behind Greece in the eurozone

Too big to be bailed outToo big to be bailed out

third largest economy in Europe and one of the lthird largest economy in Europe and one of the largest bond markets in Europeargest bond markets in Europe

SpainSpain

The housing boom turned to bust, leaving the coThe housing boom turned to bust, leaving the country's banks loaded with bad debt and the higuntry's banks loaded with bad debt and the highest unemployment rate in the eurozonehest unemployment rate in the eurozone

an economy twice the size of the other three coman economy twice the size of the other three combined (Greece, Purtugal and Ireland)bined (Greece, Purtugal and Ireland)

Contagion of the crisis (market dynamic : dominContagion of the crisis (market dynamic : domino effect of the markets when its debt rating wao effect of the markets when its debt rating was lowered)s lowered)

So far, no solution in sightSo far, no solution in sight

Pessimistic point of view: Pessimistic point of view:

""Euro is breaking down" (Greenspan)Euro is breaking down" (Greenspan)

The Crashing Euro (George Soros)The Crashing Euro (George Soros)

Europe is in danger over eurozone crisis. "If the Europe is in danger over eurozone crisis. "If the eurozone breaks up, the European Union will neurozone breaks up, the European Union will not be able to survive, with all the consequences ot be able to survive, with all the consequences that one can imagine."(Rostowski)that one can imagine."(Rostowski)

Eurozone crisis threatens world economy (IMF)Eurozone crisis threatens world economy (IMF)

The time for muddling through is fast slipping aThe time for muddling through is fast slipping away ( Zoellick, head of the WB)way ( Zoellick, head of the WB)

Way outWay out

status quo: a currency not backed by a treasury; jstatus quo: a currency not backed by a treasury; joint borders without a common migration polioint borders without a common migration policy; and a technocratic foreign policy divorced cy; and a technocratic foreign policy divorced from national sources of power (Mark Leonard from national sources of power (Mark Leonard ))

What is lacking is political willWhat is lacking is political will

Fiscal union or political union?Fiscal union or political union?

Crisis (Crisis ( 危机 危机 in chinesein chinese）） means both danger ameans both danger and opportunitynd opportunity

The Future of CEEThe Future of CEE

the future of the CEE depends on the success othe future of the CEE depends on the success of Europe projectf Europe project

EU enlargement will slow down after Croatia EU enlargement will slow down after Croatia accession as eurozone crisis last many years ahaccession as eurozone crisis last many years aheadead

Convegence or divergence in CEEConvegence or divergence in CEE

Central Europe will be better off than West BalkCentral Europe will be better off than West Balkansans

The more European, the more successfulThe more European, the more successful

New member states will be hesitate to join the New member states will be hesitate to join the eurozone before eurozone get its house in ordeeurozone before eurozone get its house in orderr

no opt-outno opt-out

any exception? case of Hungaryany exception? case of Hungary

Don't forget about the West BalkansDon't forget about the West Balkans

West Balkans is more important than Eastern neiWest Balkans is more important than Eastern neighbors and Southern neighborsghbors and Southern neighbors

Kosovo issueKosovo issue

trouble spots in Serbia: Sandzak and the south Serbiatrouble spots in Serbia: Sandzak and the south Serbia

Political stalemate in Bosnia (Federation and Republika Political stalemate in Bosnia (Federation and Republika Srpska)Srpska)

Macedonia name row with GreeceMacedonia name row with Greece

nation-building and state-buiding at initial stagenation-building and state-buiding at initial stage

Back to the past or return to Europe?Back to the past or return to Europe?

Can EU change the West Balkans?Can EU change the West Balkans?

If europeanization goes well in CEE, the CEE If europeanization goes well in CEE, the CEE will have a bright future.will have a bright future.

europeanizationeuropeanization

Institutional changeInstitutional change

economic growtheconomic growth

Thank you!Thank you!