European UnionEuropean UnionEnergy Security andEnergy Security andClimate Change PolicyClimate Change Policyin relation to the Arcticin relation to the Arctic

Kathrin Keil

PhD candidateBerlin Graduate School for Transnational Studies (BTS)

Freie Universität BerlinDepartment of Political and Social SciencesOtto Suhr Institute of Political ScienceEnvironmental Policy Research Centre (FFU)

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ContentContent1. Relevance of the topic – Why the Arctic? Why the EU?

2. Research Outline2.1 Question2.2 Puzzles2.3 What to analyse? Content2.4 How to analyse? Means2.5 Why analyse? Purpose

3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germany

3.1 EU3.2 Germany

The ArcticThe Arctic

•20 sq km, 66° North

•Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Denmark

•Temp. rise twice as quick (ACIA)

•Average warming: 1-2°C (IPCC)

•Ice-free Arctic Ocean: 2030, 2050 (SWP)

•13% of world’s undiscovered oil reserves

•30% of world’s undiscovered natural gas

(US Geological Survey 2008)

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1.1. Relevance of the TopicRelevance of the TopicWhy the Arctic?Why the Arctic?

Potential• Energy exploitation• Transport• Fishing

Challenges•Environmental damage•Indigenous populations•Heightened rivalry

Why the EU?Why the EU?

Complex actor network many European interests (and responsibilities!) at stake

Starting point:Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council: The European Union and the Arctic Region,20 November 2008

Germany’s influence

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.1 Questions2.1 Questions1. What is the direction and speed of Arctic warming and what are its

effects on economic-political, security and climate change policies?

2. How will the EU be able to exert the role of a positive player in the increasingly complex Arctic governance process?

2.1 multilevel actorness (internal)

2.2 multilevel actorness (external)

2.3 policy area

3. Which role can Germany play in this setting?

4. How do EU integration and policy-making theories account for the importance of multilevel actorness, policy area and differentiated policy-making?

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.2 Puzzles2.2 Puzzles

1. New environmental conditions in the Arctic

2. Who will lead and profit?3. How will climate change challenge

develop?4. Which role will be played by the EU (and

Germany) in policy areas of energy security and climate change?

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.3 Content2.3 Content

Figure 1: Assumptionsand Enquiry

Table 1: Order of Analysis (empirics)

1.Direction and speed of Arctic warming2.Aspects of reasonable certainty3.Interpretative disputes/critical variables4.Evolution of the EU’s role5.Evolution and effect of Germany’s role

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.3 Content2.3 Content

Figure 2: The triangle of security, energy and climate change policies

Blue: Increasing climate change problems affect and reinforce energy issues and vice versa.

Red: Increasing climate change problems affect and reinforce security issues.

Green: Increasing energy problems affect and reinforce security issues.

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.4 Means2.4 Means

Multilevel actorness– National, regional, global– State and non-state

Policy areaDifferentiated policy-making

– External: common voice demand– Internal: diversity

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.4 Means2.4 Means

Forward-looking research designStart with developments in the Arctic

independent variable(s) Asking questions about

consequences/outcome

dependent variablesDiscourse analysis

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.4 Means2.4 MeansTable 2: Order of analysis (whole study)

1. State of the art of theories2. Direction and speed of Arctic warming (facts)3. Methodology4. Aspects of reasonable certainty 5. Interpretative disputes/critical variables6. Evolution of the EU’s role7. Evolution and effect of Germany’s role8. Suggestions for theory development9. Conclusions

2. Research Outline2. Research Outline2.5 Purpose2.5 Purpose

Policy recommendationTheory development

– how European integration and policy-making theories live up - or can live up - to the centrality of the policy area, to a multilevel actor approach and to the notion of differentiated policy-making

On generalisability

3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building 3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germanyfor EU and Germany3.1 EU3.1 EU

1. Adaptation and intensification of existing EU climate change and energy policies

2. More partnership and exchange• Relevant institutions (e.g. Arctic Council, NATO)

• Non-EU countries (US, Canada, Russia, Norway)

• Indigenous people

3. Direct EU action and involvement

3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building 3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and Germanyfor EU and Germany3.2 Germany3.2 Germany

1. Relative German inaction

2. Asserting ecological and climate-change priorities

3. ’Honest broker' or a creator of balance and synthesis

Thank you for your attention!