european occupier market dashboardeuropean occupier market dashboard q3 2016 research figure 7 prime...
TRANSCRIPT
EUROPEAN OCCUPIER MARKET DASHBOARDQ3 2016
KEY MARKET INDICATORS FOR OFFICE OCCUPIERS
RESEARCH
2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report
€
European Prime Rental Index rose by
2.4%year-on-year
+1.4pts to
106.9%IN OCTOBER
COST IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN REAL
ESTATE DECISIONS
DEALS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY LEASE
EVENTS / RESTRUCTURING RATHER THAN EXPANSION
A CLEAR FLIGHT TO QUALITY
CEE MARKETS BENEFITING FROM
GROWTH IN BPO / SSC
TECHNOLOGY FIRMS REMAIN MOST
DOMINANT LEASING SECTOR
ECONOMY
KEY STATISTICS
SUPPLY RENTS
GROWTH
SUPPLY PIPELINE is relatively restricted although construction activity is increasing in some markets such as Paris, Dublin, Berlin, Munich and Warsaw.
EUROPEAN VACANCY RATES have fallen marginally in Q3 to below 9%, although are expected to rise once new stock is delivered to some markets.
SENTIMENTECONOMIC SENTIMENT IN THE EU increased driven by marked improvements to industry and services confidence.
ON AN ANNUAL BASIS, AGGREGATE OFFICE TAKE-UP WAS DOWN 5% IN Q3. Both the UK and Spanish markets registered notably lower take-up compared to the same period last year.
PRIME RENTS INCREASED IN Q3 in Amsterdam, Berlin, Dublin, Munich, Paris, Stockholm, Warsaw and Zurich.
EUROZONE’S ECONOMY expanded by 0.3% in Q3.
ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED to continue at a moderate pace.
SOLID JOB CREATION seen in Germany, Spain & Ireland.
EUROZONE PMI SERVICES BUSINESS Activity Index rose to 52.8 in October.
2017
AMSTERDAM
365 425
BERLIN
336 382
MOSCOW
613 706
WARSAW
288 408
FRANKFURT
462 540
STOCKHOLM
635 705
LONDON(CITY)
940 1,374
LONDON(WEST END)
1,480 2,275
MUNICH
420 496
BUCHAREST
216 262
BARCELONA
255 343
ZURICH
615 646
GENEVA
577 615
PARIS
770 847
VIENNA
309 413
MILAN
500 553
BUDAPEST
258 335
COPENHAGEN
242 3382016 2017
PRAGUE
234 331BRUSSELS
300 379
DUBLIN
646 796
MADRID
333 391
2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017 2016 20172016 2017
2016 2017 2016 20172016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
2016 2017
EUROPEAN TRENDS
PRIME RENTS (€/SQ M/YR)OCCUPANCY COSTS
POSITION ON MARKET PENDULUMLANDLORDBALANCEDTENANT
LANDLORDBALANCED
TENANT
MARKET PENDULUM
4
Source: Knight Frank Research Occupancy costs = prime rent + service charge + taxes
EUROPEAN OCCUPIER MARKET DASHBOARD Q3 2016 RESEARCH
3
5
EUROPEAN OCCUPIER MARKET DASHBOARD Q3 2016 RESEARCH
FIGURE 7
Prime office rental cycle
Market Property Tenant Sector Size (sq m)
Paris Window RTE Energy and Resources 44,000
London Battersea Power Station Apple TMT 43,400
Paris Le White INSEE Public Sector 23,800
Paris 10 Grenelle LVMH Media (Les Echos / Le Parisien) TMT 18,700
Vienna DC Tower PWC Professional Services 15,700
Prague Mechanica 01 Johnson & Johnson Medical 15,100
Munich Werinherstraße 83 Landeshauptstadt München Public Sector 15,000
Munich Microcity, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1” Alphabet Finance 11,400
Bucharest GreenGate Teamnet TMT 11,000
Bucharest Iride Business Park Hospital Medical 11,000
Dublin 13-18 City Quay Grant Thornton Professional Services 10,963
Frankfurt Theodor-Heuss-Allee 106, Frankfurt am Main Commerzbank Finance 10,757
Moscow Novinskiy Passage Samsung TMT 10,000
Major Leasing Transactions, Q3 2016 (Deals 10,000 sq m +)
FIGURE 6
Market activity levels
Rents Bottoming Rental Growth – SlowingRental Growth – Accelerating Rents Declining
GenevaWarsaw
HelsinkiMoscowOsloPragueZurich
BrusselsBucharestCopenhagenDublinEdinburghMunich
FrankfurtHamburgLondon (City)Vienna
London (West End)
AmsterdamBarcelonaBerlinBudapestLisbonMadridMilanParisStockholm
The above diagram is intended to provide a comparative guide to the current positions of European prime office markets in their rental cycles. Markets will move through their cycles at different speeds and, sometimes, in different directions. The positions indicated in the diagram do not constitute formal forecasts of future rental trends.
78,0
00 6
7,52
5 BA
RCEL
ONA
195,
000
144
,450
BE
RLIN
72,2
67 1
10,3
16
BRUS
SELS
61,2
24 5
6,16
5 BU
CHAR
EST
95,2
30 9
7,58
6 BU
DAPE
ST
81,5
35 4
7,23
3 DU
BLIN
117,
250
115
,320
FR
ANKF
URT
253,
627
302
,638
LO
NDON
CEN
TRAL
88,5
11 9
6,85
0 M
ADRI
D
170,
700
182
,170
M
UNIC
H
53,2
00 5
7,39
5 M
ILAN
414,
400
380
,615
PA
RIS
109,
600
66,
889
PRAG
UE
91,5
28 6
4,90
3 VI
ENNA
170,
625
147
,828
W
ARSA
W
Q3 2016 take-up Average Q3 take-up Notes: Average taken over last ten years
Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research
Central London Quarterly - Q3 2016
CITY RENTS HOLD WHILE WEST END DROP MARGINALLY
RESEARCH
CENTRAL LONDON PRIME YIELDS REMAIN STABLE
AVAILABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
CENTRAL LONDONQUARTERLY – OFFICES Q3 2016
Important Notice© Knight Frank LLP 2016 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.
For the latest news, views and analysisof the commercial property market, visitknightfrankblog.com/commercial-briefing/
COMMERCIAL BRIEFING
EUROPEAN RESEARCH
Lee Elliott Partner, Head of Commercial Research +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
Matthew Colbourne Associate, International Research +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
Vivienne Bolla Senior Analyst, International Research +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
EUROPE
Chris Bell Managing Director, Europe +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
Emma Goodford Head of EMEA Tenant Representation +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
Sisi Lagrem Partner, EMEA Tenant Representation +44 20 7629 8171 [email protected]
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS
Warsaw Office Market Report - Q3 2016
Dublin Office Market Report - Q3 2016
RESEARCH
WARSAWOFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK Q3 2016
OCCUPIER TRENDS INVESTMENT TRENDS MARKET OUTLOOK
RESEARCH
DUBLINOFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK Q3 2016
OCCUPIER TRENDS INVESTMENT TRENDS MARKET OUTLOOK
European Quarterly - Q2 2016
RESEARCH
EUROPEAN QUARTERLYCOMMERCIAL PROPERTY OUTLOOK Q2 2016
OCCUPIER TRENDS INVESTMENT TRENDS MARKET INDICATORS