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European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO

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Page 1: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015

Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO

Page 2: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Well diversified business in a robust economic environment

Lithuania

Denmark

Norway Finland

Sweden

Latvia Estonia

Germany

Swedish Retail banking

Wealth Management and Life & Pension

29%

8%

22%

41%

Large Corporates & Institutions -Corporate Banking 54% -Markets 30% -Transaction Banking 16%

Sweden 47% Other Nordics 27% Germany 14% RoW 11%

Baltic Retail banking

Robust Macro-Economic Operating Environment Well-diversified business mix

Universal banking in Sweden and the Baltics Principally corporate banking in the other Nordic countries

and Germany

Total operating income – rolling 12 months Dec 2014

2

Page 3: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Income growth in line with communicated target

Growth target

Plan 2013-15

Actual growth

2013-14

Merchant Banking ~15% +14%

Retail Banking ~20% +14%

Life & Wealth ~5% +10%

Baltic ~15% +7%

Group ~15% +12%

Operating profit

(SEK bn)

Large Corps &

Institutions

Asset

Gathering

Baltic

Private &

Corporates

Target ROE>peers = approx. 13%

Capital generation assuming dividend payout >40%

”2015”

Approx. 20

ROE approx. 13%

I L L U S T R A T I V E

15.4

2012

ROE 11%

From Q4 2012:

3

Page 4: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Operating leverage Excluding one-offs Average quarterly income (SEK bn)

9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014

Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)

5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014

Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn)

Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012, sale of MasterCard shares and Euroline in 2014) Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010

3.4 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.5

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014

4

Page 5: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

23.5 22.9 22.3 22.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ope

ratin

g ex

pens

es

(SE

K b

n)

<22.5bn extended to 2016

Increased leverage on existing cost caps Ac

tiviti

es

• Decentralisation • Synergies and streamlining • Investments in growth and

customer interface • Agile IT development • Off-shoring

Pensions -0,4 FX translation +0.3

Pensions +0,4 FX translation +0.3

Self-financing growth

5

Page 6: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Solid credit portfolio and strong asset quality Credit portfolio (credit loss level) Credit portfolio by sector (SEK bn)

+21%

+5%

Change YoY Nordics

Germany Baltics

Other

11 bps

-7 bps 21 bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Corporate & Institutions

Households

72%

28%

Corporates

Households

6

Page 7: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Business conditions

Deloitte/SEB Swedish CFO Survey

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7

Page 8: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Financial targets

Common Equity Tier 1 ratio

Return on Equity

Pay-out ratio

Competitive with peers – long-term aspiration of 15%

150bps buffer over regulatory requirement

40% or above of EPS

8

Page 9: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

10.0% 10.3% 10.4%

5.10% 5.20%

15.0% 16.0% 16.3%

Q4-13 Q2-14 Q4-14

Pillar I requirement Pillar II requirement Actual

Note: Estimated capital requirements are based on the SFSA’s memorandum published in May and November 2014

10.0%

15.4% 15.6%

Capital target reflects dynamic capital requirements

Target: Management buffer ~150 bps

~17% (proforma) - Current understanding - Current balance sheet

- Currency volatility - Pension risk - Macro development

Strong internal capital generation 300bps p.a. CET1 ratio (Net profit/REA before dividend)

9

Page 10: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Our way of doing business

Full-service customers

Holistic coverage

Investments in core services

Large Corporate

2,300 customers

Financial Institutions

700 customers

Corporate

400k customers

Private

4m customers

Since 1856 focus on…

10

Page 11: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Baltic

Merchant Banking

Life & Wealth

Retail Banking

All divisions driving operating leverage

4.5

2.1

Avg2010

Avg2011

Avg2012

Avg2013

Avg2014

3.2

1.4

Avg2010

Avg2011

Avg2012

Avg2013

Avg2014

2.4

1.3

Avg2010

Avg2011

Avg2012

Avg2013

Avg2014

0.9 0.4

Avg2010

Avg2011

Avg2012

Avg2013

Avg2014

SEB Group Op profit*

+12%

Op Profit growth 2014 vs.

2013

+11%

Op Profit growth 2014 vs.

2013

+15%

Op Profit growth 2014 vs.

2013

+23%

Op Profit growth 2014 vs.

2013

+13%

Operating income Operating expenses

SEK bn

* Excluding one-off gains

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Page 12: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Large corporate strategy successfully increasing SEB income

High up-tiering potential going forward New and existing clients drive income growth

13.7 14.3 14.1 14.5

15.7

0.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Client base pre 2010 New clients 2010-2014

New clients 2010-2014

Client base pre 2010

Financing Flow products Advisory

Primarily income from Corporate & Investment Banking

Primarily income from Markets and Transaction Banking

12

Page 13: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

0.4

0.5

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.6

1.5

MB operating result* (SEK bn) CAGR 2010-2014

+22%

+18%

+13%

+21%

2010

2014

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Germany

2010

2014

2010

2014

2010

2014

*FX adjusted – excluding one offs

Growth initiatives boost geographical diversification

Denmark – growth primarily coming out of market share gained from local competitors

Finland – growth primarily coming out of increasing share of wallet on existing clients

Norway – growth primarily coming out of market share gained from local competitors, changed business mix with stronger focus on corporate banking as well as from a growing market

Germany – growth primarily coming out of market share gained from banks suffering from the financial crisis such as regional savings banks etc.

Key take aways

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Page 14: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Growing asset gathering franchise

050

100150200250300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unit-linked AuM (SEK bn)

+16% CAGR

Private Banking AuM (SEK bn)

0

200

400

600

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

+21% CAGR

Household deposits (SEK bn)

+7% CAGR

0

100

200

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Advice driven

Holistic Performance

Traditional life Long-term focus

#1 Private Banking

Asset allocation

14

Page 15: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Full service Swedish Retail offering built on long-term customer relations

Household mortgage portfolio Customer satisfaction

+0.1

+3.4

-1.9

+0.4

-1.2

Handelsbanken

Danske Bank

Nordea

Swedbank

Increase from 2013

SME full service customers, thousands

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

Full-service offering Now also Traditional Life insurance Sweden

Private SME

Private full service customers, thousands

350370390410430450470

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

+11 477

406080

100120140160

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

149 +9,4

15

Page 16: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Continued resilience and flexibility

Net credit loss level 0.09%

NPL coverage ratio 59%

CET1 16.3%

LCR 115%

Liquidity resources 25%

Asse

t Qua

lity

Liqu

idity

C

apita

l

16

Page 17: European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 ... · European Financials Conference, London 26 March, 2015 Magnus Carlsson Deputy President & CEO . ... rolling 12 months Dec

Going forward

Continued disciplined execution

Resilience and long-term perspective in challenging economic climate

Focus on customer relationships

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