european architectural barometer q4 2019 · q4 2018 value q3 2019 value q4 2019 q-2-q development...

European Architectural Barometer – Q4 2019product ofTheme: Building Information Modeling

January 2020

Preface

Forecast overview

Economic and construction figures per country

Theme part: Building Information Modeling

Research background

Appendix

Index

4

Preface

The added value of the European

Architectural Barometer

Preface Q4 2019 report Theme part: BIM

For decision makers charged with considering

company resources, staffing, and marketing strategy,

a clear insight into future construction volumes is

essential. Economic indicators, however, seldom

provide an adequate picture of these volumes. Arch-

Vision combines economic indicators with architects’

expectations, in order to give insight in construction

volumes. In addition, a topical theme is investigated

every quarter to determine trends and developments

within the construction sector. That is why this report

is a must-have for each construction marketeer.

Every quarter we ask our clients for input about the

specific topics we cover. This quarter, Arch-Vision

would like to thank the following clients who actively

participated in the discussion, provided feedback

about the topic covered in this survey, and

contributed suggestions for the questionnaire and the

report:

• Interface

• Owens Corning

• Tata Steel Europe

This report is the Q4 2019 edition of the European

Architectural Barometer in which architects provide a

strong indication of the developments in the construction

sector. Next to the economic developments and the

forecasts for the next few years, this report also gives

you insights in the status of Building Information

Modeling (BIM) throughout the European construction

markets.

xxxxxxx

Ixxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In this quarter, architects were asked to what

extent they are familiar with BIM and to what

extent BIM is used already. The theme part also

discusses the limitations and strengths of BIM

and the reasons to start working or not start

working with BIM.

xxxxxxxxxxxx

• VELUX

• MOSA

Preface

Forecast overview



Research background

Appendix

Index

6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 3,1% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% € 162 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

xx% xx% xx% € 96,7 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

xx% xx% xx% € 65,5 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%Barometer forecastsbuilding construction

Building volumes in billion euros

Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment

Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment

Forecast overviewFuture construction volumes in total, new-build and renovation

Index

Preface

Forecast overview

Economic and construction figures

The United Kingdom


Research background

Appendix

14%17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q4 '0

9

Q4 '1

0

Q4 '1

1

Q4 '1

2

Q4 '1

3

Q4 '1

4

Q4 '1

5

Q4 '1

6

Q4 '1

7

Q4 '1

8

Q4 '1

9

EU UK

8

Development of order book Expecting empty order book in 12 months

Increase of more than 5% Increase of 0-5% Remains the same (0%)

Decrease of 0-5% Decrease of more than 5%

Based on previous year

Rolling Order book Barometer (based on Q4 2008)

Although architects are uncertain, this is not reflected in their order

books. A relatively stable image is seen.

-550

-450

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4 '0

9

Q4 '1

0

Q4 '1

1

Q4 '1

2

Q4 '1

3

Q4 '1

4

Q4 '1

5

Q4 '1

6

Q4 '1

7

Q4 '1

8

Q4 '1

9

116,2

72,5

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Q1 '1

5

Q1 '1

6

Q1 '1

7

Q1 '1

8

Q1 '1

9

Building permits - Residential

Building permits - Non-residential

9

The British industry is relatively stable.

Some indicators are fluctuating but no

signs that could predict a crisis are seen.

Development building permits

Building volumes

Economic and construction related indicatorsValue

Q4 2018

Value

Q3 2019

Value

Q4 2019Q-2-Q development

GDP (quarterly growth rate) (%)* 0.2 0.4 Na Up

Consumer confidence indicator** -8.1 -9.4 -8.8 Up

Industrial confidence indicator** 5.0 -17.5 -18.5 Down

Construction confidence indicator** 2.1 -7.0 -15.5 Down

Production value buildings (index 2015=100)** 110.2 110.6 Na Same (Q3-Q2)

Architects with postponed projects (%)*** 39 49 44 Up

Architects with cancelled projects (%)*** 28 32 25 Up

Building permits residential (index 2015=100)** 106.3 116.2 Na

Building permits non-residential (index 2015=100)** 83.0 72.5 Na

1,2% 1,1% 2,9% 3,1% 1,3% 0,7% -1,4% -1,0% -1,0%

Source: *Country statistical office; ** Eurostat, *** Arch-Vision

It remains uncertain where the industry is heading, but for now it is a fairly

calm market that is driven by the residential segment. Investments in

housing projects and the demand for affordable houses keep the slightly

negative growth figures fairly stable.

Index 2015=100

Source: Eurostat

87,8 87,5 90,2 96,7 97,3 97,6 96,2 95,6 95,2

63,6 65,5 67,2 65,5 67,1 67,9 66,9 66,0 64,7

151,4 153,0 157,5 162,3 164,4 165,5 163,1 161,5 159,9

€0

€50

€100

€150

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

Building volumes new-build Building volumes renovation

10

The economic and construction figures are also available for:

• Germany

• France

• Spain

• Italy

• The Netherlands

• Belgium

• Poland

Preface

Forecast overview



Europe

Research background

Appendix

Index

12

Dummy data has been used on the following slides, this means no

real data of this quarter is shown.

13

25%

25%25%

25%

ON PAPER

2D CAD

SOFTWARE2D AND 3D CAD

SOFTWARE

3D CAD

SOFTWARE

XX% XX% XX%works with works with works with

CAD software 1 CAD software 2 CAD software 3

Way of designing

14

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

Engineers/ installers

Internal colleagues

Contractors

Building owners

Investors/developers

Governmental institutions

ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT

XX%

Paper

XX%

E-mail

XX%

Cloud-storage

XX%

Digital software platforms

% Exchanging data always and regularly

Low level of

digitalization

High level of

digitalization

Data exchange withWay of data exchange

15

30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

10% 10% 10%0%

50%

100%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

BIM familiarity

BIM users

% of total projects

where BIM is used

BIM familiarity and usage development

16

Projects in 2019 in which

BIM is used

Turnover from BIM projects as

% of total turnover in 2019

0 to 2 years XX% XX%



11 years or longer XX% XX%

Usage and turnover development in BIM projects 2019

Projects in which BIM is

used


% of total turnover

2019 XX% XX%

2017 XX% XX%

2015 XX% XX%

Usage and turnover development in BIM projects



XX% XX%works with

CAD software 4

works with

17

BIM-related software used Other BIM-related software used

18

50% 50%

Non BIM users

Started using BIM XX years

ago on average

BIM users50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

0%

50%

100%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Current percentage

of BIM users

Expected percentage

of BIM users

In total 22% expects

not to work with BIM.

Of those who expect

to work with BIM,

expect to start within

3.3 years from now.

50% 50%

Expect to start using BIM within XX

years on average

Do not expect to use BIM

Will start using BIM in the future

Current and expected percentage of BIM usersCurrent percentage of BIM users

19

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

20%

20%

20%

20%

STRONGLY

AGREEAGREE

NEITHER

AGREE/DISAGREEDISAGREE

STRONGLY

DISAGREE

DON’T

KNOW

BIM is difficult to implement, because many people

want to use/see traditional drawings


are not able to understand/read the information/files

20

STRONGLY

AGREEAGREE

NEITHER

AGREE/DISAGREEDISAGREE

STRONGLY

DISAGREE

DON’T

KNOW

Manufacturers are key players in the integration of

BIM in construction projects

BIM leads to lower failure costs

BIM is relevant only for architectural practices

working on big projects

BIM reduces the time between the idea generation

and completion of a project

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Preface

Forecast overview



Cross-country comparison

Research background

Appendix

Index

CAD SOFTWARE 1 CAD SOFTWARE 2 CAD SOFTWARE 3

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX%

22

Paper 2D CAD

software

2D and 3D CAD

software

3D CAD

software

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

XX% XX% XX% XX%

Way of designing

23

CAD

SOFTWARE 1

CAD

SOFTWARE 2

CAD

SOFTWARE 3

CAD

SOFTWARE 4

CAD

SOFTWARE 5

CAD

SOFTWARE 6

XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%








BIM-related software used

24

Way of data exchange

30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

25

Engineers/

installers

Internal

colleaguesContractors Building owners

Investors/

developers

Governmental

institutions









Data exchange with

26

Poland

xx%

Italy

xx%Spain

xx%

France

xx%

Germany

xx%

The Netherlands

xx%

Belgium

xx%

The United Kingdom

xx%

Percentage of BIM users in Europe 2019

27

Projects in 2019 in which

BIM is used


% of total turnover in 2019




11 years or longer XX% XX%

Usage and turnover development in BIM projects 2019

Projects in which BIM is

used


% of total turnover

2019 XX% XX%

2017 XX% XX%

2015 XX% XX%

Usage and turnover development in BIM projects

28

Expectation when to start using BIM

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

NOT PLANNING TO IN 1-2 YEARS IN 3-5 YEARS >6 YEARS UNKNOWN AVERAGE*

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

In xx years

*Average of respondents who are planning to start using BIM

**Results are indicative due to a low N (N <20)

1-2 YEARS AGO 3-5 YEARS AGO 6-10 YEARS AGO >11 YEARS AGO

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

Started using BIM

AVERAGE

xx years

xx years

xx years

xx years

xx years

xx years

xx years

xx years

XX XX

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2019 2023

29

Ranking

2019

Ranking

2023

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

xx xx

Development of BIM users

xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%






30

% (Strongly) agree minus (Strongly) disagree

BIM is difficult to implement, because many people want

to use/see traditional drawings

BIM is difficult to implement, because many people are

not able to understand/read the information/files

Manufacturers are key players in the integration of BIM in

construction projects


BIM is relevant only for architectural practices working on

big projects

BIM reduces the time between the idea generation and

completion of a project

Preface

Forecast overview



The United Kingdom

Research background

Appendix

Index



XX% XX%works with

CAD software 4

works with

Internal colleagues

Engineers/ installers

Contractors

Building owners

Governmental institutions

Investors/developers

32

25% 25% 25% 25%

ON PAPER 2D CAD SOFTWARE 2D AND 3D CAD SOFTWARE 3D CAD SOFTWARE

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

XX%

Paper

XX%

E-mail

XX%

Cloud-storage

XX%

Digital software platforms

% Exchanging data always and regularly

ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT

Way of designing Way of data exchange

33

40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

0%

50%

100%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Familiarity

BIM users

Projects in which BIM is used Turnover from BIM projects as

% of total turnover

2019 XX% XX%

2017 XX% XX%

2015 XX% XX%

BIM familiarity and usage development Usage and turnover development in BIM projects

50% 50%

50% 50%50%

50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

0%

50%

100%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

34

Non BIM users

Started using BIM XX years

ago on average

BIM users

Current percentage

of BIM usersExpected percentage

of BIM users

Current and expected percentage of BIM usersCurrent percentage of BIM users

NOT PLANNING TO IN 1-2 YEARS IN 3-5 YEARS UNKNOWN1-2 YEARS AGO 3-5 YEARS AGO 6-10 YEARS AGO >11 YEARS AGO

35

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

25% 25% 25% 25%25% 25% 25% 25%

Started using BIM Expectation when to start using BIM

Top 5 reasons for using BIM Top 5 reasons for not (yet) using BIM

AVERAGE

xx years

AVERAGE*

In xx years

*Average of respondents who are planning to start using BIM



XX% XX%works with

CAD software 4

works with

BIM USER SINCE

1-2 years 3-5 years >6 years

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

xx Xx% Xx% Xx%

36

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

BIM features used BIM-related software used

37

50%50%

Procurement of materials Designing of interior

finished in projects

Specify performances of

building products

50%50% 50%50%

Yes

XX

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Specific BIM features that are used

BIM features used Performances specified in projects

38

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Cooperation with parties using BIM Information shared with these parties

39

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Manufacturers are key players in the integration of

BIM in construction projects


want to use/see traditional drawings



are not able to understand/read the information/files

BIM reduces the time between the idea generation

and completion of a project

BIM is relevant only for architectural practices

working on big projects

STRONGLY AGREE AGREE NEITHER AGREE/DISAGREE DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

40

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Internet in general

Websites of manufacturers

General platforms/library

Build own objects/ database

Forums of specific BIM software

ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT DON’T KNOW XX

XX

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%25% 25% 25% 25%

Channels used for BIM information/objects Platforms or libraries for specific BIM information/objects

Working with open file data versus native file data

OPEN FILE DATA EQUALLY NATIVE FILE DATA UNKNOWN

IndexPreface

Forecast overview



Research background

Appendix

Methodology

Quantitative phone research:

✓ 175 interviews per country in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK

✓ 100 interviews in the Netherlands and Belgium

✓ Total: minimum of 1.250 interviews per quarter

42

Research background

Research objectives

The objective of the European Architectural Barometer of Arch-Vision is to offer

profound insight into the current economic situation and trends among architectural

firms in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and

Poland. The European Architectural Barometer provides knowledge about the

future building volumes and the way in which these building volumes will be

realized (trends).

Costs

Yearly subscription fee: € 6,000

Includes:

1. Four quarterly reports per year

2. Possibility to give your input on the questionnaire

Countries

Planning & Process each quarter

Draft questionnaire

Final questionnaire

Fieldwork, analysis, reporting

Report available

each quarter

43

Sample and methodology of the researchMost architectural firms have less than two FTE. Nevertheless, the focus of the European Architectural Barometer is on the larger firms. Therefore the research is

only conducted among architectural firms with two FTE and more. As the study is focused on architects active in construction, architects that are solely active in

interior or landscaping are excluded from the research.

The table below shows the number of successful interviews in each country. The difference between the gross sample of respondents that were reached (all reached

numbers) and the net sample of respondents that were reached, was caused by those architects who could not be contacted or had an incorrect phone number, and

those who did not meet the selection criteria (mostly due to the fact that the architectural firms had less than two FTE). The difference between the net sample of

respondents reached and the response are the number of architects who refused to participate.

Gross sample (all attempts to approach respondents) 1938 5122 4261 1912 1734 798 3026 2222

Net sample (all approached respondents) 342 964 277 352 256 315 278 504

Completed interviews 175 175 175 175 175 100 100 175

Response percentage (interviews/net sample) 51% 18% 63% 50% 68% 32% 36% 35%

Response

74%

61%57%

82%

71%76%

69%

57%

26%

39%43%

18%28%

23%

31%43%

UK GE FR SP IT NL BE PO

Average 7,5 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx

2 – 4 FTE

5 – 9 FTE

10 – 19 FTE

20 – 39 FTE

> 40 FTE

44

Background of the architects

The table below shows the average number of employees of the architectural firms within the current quarter of this research, divided by

country. The architectural firms with one employee were excluded from this research. The second table shows the segments in which

architects within this research are mostly active.

Number of FTE

Housing

Non-Residential

Segment mostly active

49%

27%

15%

7%

2%

45

Background of the architects

The figure below shows the split in activities in new build and renovation. xxxxxxxxx

New development or renovation

29%

33%

27%

37%

17%

41%

27%

58%

27%

19%

7%

20%

52%

16%

26%

9%

45%

47%

66%

43%

31%

42%

46%

34%

New build Renovation Both as much

IndexPreface

Forecast overview



Research background

Appendix

47

Future

Construction

volumes

Sister

company

Barometer

Arch-Vision

Building

volumes

Interviews

The construction industry operates in a

delayed cyclical market, which means that

buildings designed today will not be ready until

at least two years from now. The economic

activities of architectural firms provide a strong

indication of the direction in which the

construction sector will develop in terms of

both building volumes and the way in which

building volumes will be realised.

Building volumes

Arch-Vision is a sister company of USP Marketing

Consultancy (www.usp-mc.eu), BouwKennis

(www.bouwkennis.nl), BauInfoConsult GmbH

(www.bauinfoconsult.de) and BuildInfoConsult

(www.buildinfoconsult.com). These are major

agencies each providing full-service research

support and specialised in the construction and real

estate markets.

Sister company

Architects have already been monitored by

several institutes in quite diverging ways

between the different countries. Arch-Vision

launched this European Architectural

Barometer for a more cohesive view. The

European Architectural Barometer is extremely

useful for organisations with a focus on Europe

that also want to compare the activities of

architects in different countries.

European Architectural Barometer

For decision makers charged with

considerations of company resources, staffing

and marketing strategy, a clear insight into

future construction volumes is essential.

However, economic indicators seldom provide

an adequate picture of these volumes.

Future construction volumes

All interviews are conducted by native

speakers. From the third measurement

onwards, two hundred interviews per country

have been completed per measurement. The

first two measurements were based on one

hundred interviews per country. Later, for the

Netherlands and Belgium, the measurements

returned to one hundred interviews.

Interviews

About Arch-Vision

48

Results per segmentFor three key questions from the current measurement of the European Architectural Barometer, the results are divided by architects that

realise most of their sales in the residential segment (0% – 30% non-residential), by architects that realise sales in both segments (31% - 70%

non-residential), and by architects that realise most of their sales in the non-residential segment (71% - 100% non-residential).

Segment most active

The tables on the following pages show the

abovementioned split with regard to the following questions:

• How did the turnover develop in this quarter

compared to the previous quarter?

• How did your order book develop in this quarter

compared to the same quarter last year?

• Do you expect that your order book might be empty

these coming 12 months?

58%

31%

26%

62%

48%

32%

48%

33%

20%

34%

38%

20%

34%

49%

26%

28%

22%

35%

36%

18%

18%

19%

26%

39%

0 - 30% 31 - 70% 71 - 100%

49

Short-term outlook among British architects

Expect empty backlog coming 12 months (%)

Q2Q Order Book Barometer (based on previous year)

Rolling Order Book Barometer (based on Q4 ’08)

2-9 FTE

10 or more FTE

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

17% 15% 18% 20% 16% 17% 24% 25% 23% 26% 30% 24% 28% 26% 29% 23%35% 28% 26% 26% 26% 28%

17% 25% 19% 20% 17% 26%

83% 85% 83% 81% 84% 84% 77% 75% 77% 74% 70% 77% 72% 74% 71% 78%65% 72% 74% 74% 74% 73%

83% 75% 81% 80% 83% 74%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

'11

Q1

'12

Q1

'13

Q1

'14

Q1

'15

Q1

'16

Q1

'17

Q1

'18

Q1

'19

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

'11

Q1

'12

Q1

'13

Q1

'14

Q1

'15

Q1

'16

Q1

'17

Q1

'18

Q1

'19

Q2Q Turnover Barometer (based on previous quarter)

Rolling Turnover Barometer (based on Q2 '09)

50

A short-term outlook is also available for:

• Germany

• France

• Spain

• Italy

• The Netherlands

• Belgium

• Poland

51

Development turnover and order book

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Strongly increased (>5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Slightly increased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Stayed the same (0%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Slightly decreased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Strongly decreased (>5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Barometer order book XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Strongly increased (>5%) XX% XX% 10% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Slightly increased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Stayed the same (0%) XX% XX% 63% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Slightly decreased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Strongly decreased (>5%) XX% XX% 3% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Barometer turnover XX XX 105 XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Development turnover

(based on previous quarter)

Development order book

(based on previous year)

52

Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months

Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Yes XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

No XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Do not know XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

53

Building volumes split in new-build and renovation, residential and

non-residential

2021 2020 2019 2018

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX








Amounts in billions at 2013 prices

The European Architectural Barometer for the order book development and turnover development

is calculated in the following way:

1. Respondents with a strong increase (>5%) are multiplied by 100

2. Respondents with a slight increase are multiplied by 50

3. Respondents that remained the same are multiplied by 0

4. Respondents with a slight decrease are multiplied by –50

5. Respondents with a strong decrease (>5%) are multiplied by –100

6. The sum of these values divided by 100, results in the Q2Q saldo.

7. Adding 100 to this saldo results in the Barometer figures, where 0 is the strongest possible decrease,

100 is stabilisation and 200 is the strongest possible increase.

The Barometer values calculated this way are presented in the report as Quarter to Quarter Turnover and

Order book Barometer.

54

Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer

Example of calculation Q2Q Barometer value:

Development

Turnover SpainQ2 ’15

Calculated

Values

Increased by more than 5% 25% x 100 2500

Slightly increased (0-5%) 28% x 50 1400

Stayed the same (0%) 36% x 0 0

Slightly decreased (0-5%) 3% x -50 -150

Decreased by more than 5% 8% x -100 -800

Q2Q Saldo = (2500 + 1400 – 150 – 800) / 100 = 30

Q2Q Barometer value = 100 + 30 = 130

To calculate the developments in the turnover and the order book with regard to the first measurement in

2009, Arch-Vision has developed the so called Rolling Barometer. The Rolling Barometer is calculated as

the cumulative sum of the Q2Q saldos of every quarter. The Rolling Barometer can drop or rise by 100

points per quarter at maximum.

Example: The Rolling Order Book Barometer is -66 after twelve quarters. In the worst case (all architects

reporting a decrease of over 5% every quarter) the Rolling Barometer would be -1200. In the best case it

would be 1200. Therefore a score of -66 in Q4 2011 means a slightly worse situation than in Q4 2008.

55

Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer

Barometer order book

Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09 Q4’09 Q1’10 Q2’10 Q3’10 Q4 ‘10 Q1 ‘11 Q2 ‘11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ‘11

Q2Q Barometer values 71 75 100 85 100 110 94 94 111 102 94 99

Saldo Q2Q Values -29 -25 0 -15 0 10 -6 -6 11 2 -6 -1

Rolling Barometer Values -29 -54 -54 -69 -69 -59 -65 -71 -60 -59 -65 -66

+ (-25) + (0) + (-15) + etc.

56

Future building volumes: building a model – for prediction

Architects are at the front of the construction sector. They are the first

to perceive positive and negative changes. The current developments

of architectural firms have a strong predictive impact on the total

market. Arch-Vision publishes its predictions for the building volumes

based on the developments experienced by architects.

Building

volumes

Arch-Vision uses a model based on eleven market indicators and

Arch-Vision’s own results. The model combines information about the

economy, like construction requests and confidence figures, with data

about the developments within architects’ experience, such as

changes in the turnover and the number of active architects. Only

information that proved to have a strong correlative value on the

building volume is used. Subsequently, every kind of data is weighed

based on the predictive value.

The model

To ensure the correctness of the predictive value, the model has been

– with retroactive effects – compared to the actual growth and

shrinkage of the construction volume since 2003 for the Dutch* market

and since Q3 2009 for the remaining countries. The model turns out to

possess a very high predictive value. Nevertheless, the forecast has

to be interpreted with caution, as it remains a calculation. As with all

predictions, the margin of error can be larger, comparable to the

weather forecast: sometimes the Arch-Vision model can be

inaccurate.

High

predictive

value

The predictive value is calculated based on the consistency of the

market indicators with construction volumes, for the renovation,

maintenance and the new build markets. The correlation is

determined by a regression analysis, i.e. a statistical technique for

analyzing data in which there is a (possible) specific connection,

known as regression.

Calculation

predictive

value

* Since 2003 the developments at architects in the Netherlands have been monitored by Arch-Visions’ sister organisation BouwKennis. Therefore, it is possible for the Netherlands to calculate the

connection between the architects and the building volume based on 10 years of data.

57

Future building volumes: reliability of the model

The reliability of a prediction model is closely related to the length of a series of data. A time series of ten years - and thus 43 quarters - is reliable to

determine consistency. However, the results of Arch-Vision do not go back that far. Additionally, in some countries - like Italy - figures such as building permits

as well as consumer and producer confidence are not always available for the last quarter (or last quarters).

The reliability will therefore increase each quarter, as the time series will be getting larger and more consistent. The explanatory power of the model will

continue to grow, as calculations can be performed based on more periods (quarters).

Market volume

New build

Renovation

Maintenance

~40%Architect developments

and expectations

~60%Mix of market indicators

~25%Architect developments/expectations

~75%Mix of market indicators

Market influence

Market influence

58

Future building volumes: Calculation

The Dutch market has been taken as a basis. The correlation between market volume regarding new build, maintenance and renovation on the one hand, and

possible explanatory factors on the other hand, serves as a starting point.

The correlation with building volumes is tested for a total of eleven market indicators together with two outcomes of the European Architectural Barometer.

The correlation of the following four indicators appeared to be strongest:

• Building permits – m² of useful floor area in non-residential buildings

• Building permits, number of dwellings

• Development of Turnover Barometer (European Architectural Barometer figures)

• Number of FTE working at architectural companies (European Architectural Barometer figures)

The predicting value of these indicators is between 54% and 91%. Because a longer history of data was not available for most counties, the development of

these four indicators in the last four quarters and the four quarters before served as a guidance for this measurement. The used range of five indicators is not

static and can be adjusted for future calculations. With the database becoming more complete, more reliable correlations can adjust the mix of indicators. A

longer range of regression measurements shall replace the comparison of the last four quarters with the four quarters before.

The forecast is based on the market knowledge of USP Marketing Consultancy together with the market figures available, such as building permits and the

developments amongst architects which are mainly active in renovation or new build as well as mainly active in residential or non-residential. Due to the

limited number of quarters, a forecast based on a statistical model is not possible for now. The model that was used has a lower prediction value for this

period. However, USP Marketing Consultancy aims at clarifying the general direction of the construction market development by publishing these data and the

predictions will be updated in the coming reports.

59

Questionnaire – StandardThese questions are asked every measurement

1. How many employees (in FTE) does your company currently have, including yourself? [if less than 2 FTE, end of research]

2. What is your position?

3. As an architectural firm, are you mostly active in the segment housing, non-residential building, interior or landscaping? [If interior or landscaping, end of

research]

4. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2018?



7. If your turnover should relate to housing and non-housing, what percentage of your revenue do you get from housing-related jobs?

8. Are you mostly active in new build or renovation?

9. How did the turnover develop this quarter compared to the previous quarter? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%); Stayed the same

(0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)

10.How did your order book develop in this quarter compared to the same quarter previous year? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%);

Stayed the same (0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)

11. How many projects have been postponed in this quarter?

12. How many projects were not started and cancelled in this quarter?

13. Do you expect that your order book might be empty these coming 12 months?

60

Questionnaire – Theme questions

1. Do you design….?

• Mostly on paper

• Using 2D CAD software only

• Using 2D and 3D CAD software

• Using 3D CAD software only

2. What is the name of the CAD software your firm uses? [Only asked if CAD software is used]

3. How often do you exchange data with external stakeholders via the following ways? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; Always.

• On paper

• E-mail

• Cloud storage

• Digital software platforms

4. Which of the following stakeholders do you digitally exchange data with? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; 4 Always.

• Investor/ developer

• Building owner/ end user

• Contractors

• Engineers/ installers

• Governmental institutions

• Internal colleagues/ other architects and designers

5. Are you familiar with BIM?

6. What is the share of projects in which BIM is used? [Only asked when they are familiar with BIM]

7. What percentage of the turnover/ revenue comes from BIM projects? [Only asked if they use BIM]

8. Why did your organization start using BIM/ is using BIM? [Only asked if they use BIM]

9. Why is your organization not (yet) started with using BIM? [Only asked if they do not use BIM]

10.When will your company start developing BIM capability [Only asked if they do not use BIM]

11.When did your company started to work with BIM? [Only asked if they use BIM]

12.Which of the following features of BIM do you use?

• 3D visualization and animation

• Generation of 2D drawings from the 3D model

• Determining quantities of construction materials, equipment and man hours

61

Questionnaire – Theme questions

• Clash detection/ clash control, early warning of design errors

• 4D, coupling/ linkage with the planning

• 5D, coupling/ linkage with the costs

• Extra analysis and simulation capabilities (for example energy performance, fire resistance, or sustainability)

• Exchange of structured product information via a Common Data Environment

12.And BIM used in your projects for the following purposes?

• Specify performances of building products

• Procurement of materials

• Designing of interior finishes in project (such as flooring materials etc.)

13. Which performances of building products are specified in project by using BIM

14. Which BIM-related software do you use?

15. Which other parties do you already cooperate with using BIM processes in your projects?

16. What kind of information/ data do you share with these parties using BIM software?

17. To what extent do you use the following channels for specific BIM information/objects? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; Always.

• We build our own objects and database

• Website of manufacturer

• Forums of specific BIM software where users exchange their objects

• General platform/ library collecting BIM information from different manufacturers

• Internet in general/ Google/ search engines

18. Can you mention any platform or library where you get your specific BIM information and objects?

19. Do you work more with open file data or with native file data?

20.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? You can answer with Strongly disagree; Disagree; Neither agree nor disagree;

Agree; Strongly agree.

• BIM is difficult to implement at the construction site, because many people want to use/see traditional drawings

• BIM is difficult to implement at the construction site, because many people are not able to understand/read the information/files

• BIM leads to lower failure costs

• BIM reduces the time between the idea generation and completion of a project

• Manufacturers are key players in the integration of BIM in construction projects

• BIM is relevant only for architectural practices working on big projects

62

USP in figures

USP Marketing Consultancy

Total

70

Head office Subsidiary

Rotterdam Düsseldorf

Research AnalystsProject managers

Consultants

Market specialist installation, construction and DIY from the start

Dedicated and multi-client research

Active in the market for over 25 years

220 dedicated market research projectsin 2017

Revenue distribution

turnover coming from international projects

70%

turnover coming from dedicated market

research, 10% from multi client

90%

turnover coming from B2B, 30% B2C

70%

focus groups in-depth interviews

82 1.102

B2B CATI interviews

B2C online interviews

57.881 57.250

Research in

39countries in 2017

63

USP’s of USP

Deep knowledge of the

industry

Experienced in qualitative

and quantitative market

research

Dedicated market

research both B2B and

B2C

Market specialist for the

construction, DIY and

installation market for

over 25 years

Strong network of

partners covering all

major countries in the

world

Ability to conduct

research in multiple

countries at the same

time

Multi client reports

covering installers,

contractors, painters,

consumers and architects

Fact based consultancy

Dedication, honesty and

love for the industry

Ability to target all

relevant stakeholders in

the construction and DIY

markets

64

What we do – Dedicated market research

Examples Dedicated market research

• Tailor made

• Driven by your information needs

• Advice & consultancy based on facts and over 25 years of experience in the industry

• Worldwide coverage

• B2B, B2C, qualitative and quantitative research or a combination of both

• Within our market specialism, all types of researches can be conducted

• Targeting the right audience, with the right questions at the right time.

Segmentation Customerjourney

Branding Concept/product research

Customersatisfaction

Trends Distributionresearch

Marketexploration

Pricing Marketsize

65

Country scope

Providing continuous information for our clients about their main target groups based on facts. Providing insights on key trends, turnover development, futurebuilding volumes, background characteristics of the target groups and much more.

European architectural

Barometer

8 countries

reports quarterly

6,400 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like BIM, DMU,

Media orientation and

future building

volumes

Architects

European contractors

monitor

8 countries

reports bi-annually

2,200 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like BIM, DMU,


branding

Contractors

European mechanical

installation monitor

6 countries

reports quarterly

4,800 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like Branding,

purchase channels,


characteristics including

turnover and order book

developments

HVAC installers

European electrical

installation monitor

7 countries

reports quarterly

4,800 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like Branding,

purchase channels,


characteristics including

turnover and order book

developments

Electrical installers

Painter insights

8 countries

reports yearly

2,000 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like mechanical

application, labour

shortage, purchase

points and branding

Painters

European home

improvement monitor

11 countries

reports quarterly

26,400 online interviews

annually

Trends like DIY vs

DFM, online buying,

branding and

information on a

product level

Consumers

66

What we do – Multi client research

67

Clients of USP

Construction Installation DIY Living & Real Estate

68

Trends & Vision in the market

Shifting decision making

Building information

modelling will become a

license to operate

Design, Build and

maintainSmart homes / offices Ageing society in Europe

Going from gas heating

towards electric

Prefab will become more

widespread

Online buying of products

by professionals

Changing role of the

wholesale

Qualitative & quantitative

labour shortage Europe

Building industry needs to

become smarter, faster

and cheaper

Digitisation

Increase influence

engineers & contractors

Changing role of the DIY

stores

69

For questions and more information

Jan-Paul Schop

Managing Director

[email protected]

+31 6 55786342

Jeroen de Gruijl

Project Manager Arch-Vision

[email protected]

+31 6 83979041

Dirk Hoogenboom

Research Consultant

[email protected]

+31 6 52098924

© January, 2020 USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights,

database rights and other (intellectual) property rights are explicitly reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior

written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

Max Euwelaan 51

3062 MA Rotterdam

+31-10-2066900

[email protected]

https://www.usp-mc.nl/en/

Head office USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

Max Euwelaan 513062 MA, Rotterdam

+31-10-2066900

+31-10-2066901

[email protected]

+31-10-8002700

www.usp-mc.nl

Where can you find us?

© 07 February 2020, USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights, database rights and other (intellectual)

property rights are explicitly reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior

written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

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