european aluminium extrusion market · pdf fileeuropean aluminium extrusion market outlook...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
European Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook
Henry Van, CRU Aluminium
Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference
Moscow, October 2017
![Page 2: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
• What is driving European extrusions demand?
• How has strong growth changed market dynamics?
• Global View: Will demand growth continue?
Objectives
2
![Page 3: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
European Demand: What is behind strong growth?
Market Dynamics: How have trade and costs changed?
Conclusion
What is driving European demand ? How has this affected
trade and costs? Can strong growth be sustained?
![Page 4: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Data: CRU
17,7 Mt
63%
17.7 Mt
63%
![Page 5: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Europe – growth exceeding North America
Data: CRU
•Europe bridges gap with US growth
•European growth exceeded US in five of past six quarters
•Building and Construction – steady growth
•Transportation – driving increase in consumption
![Page 6: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Data: CRU
Transportation– aluminium adoption offsets production weakness
•German automobile production
down…
•But aluminium consumption in
transport up?
•Adoption in lightweight vehicles
•2014-2018 CAGR Germany
•Car production: -0%
•Extrusion consumption: 1.9%
![Page 7: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
• Adoption in transportation
• Building and Construction rates begin to stabilise
European Demand: What is behind strong growth?
Market Dynamics: How have trade and costs changed?
Conclusion
What is driving European demand ? How has this affected
trade and costs? Can strong growth be sustained?
![Page 8: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
8
![Page 9: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Data: CRU
Euro Strength – increasing market competition
• Euro stronger against US dollar in
2017
• Imports cheaper on Euro basis
• More competition for European
extruders
• H1 2017: 26% higher y-o-y
![Page 10: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Data: CRU
Billet Costs – Premiums provide lustre for importers
• European surcharge remains above US over forecast period
• Imports have higher netbacks that European remelters
• More supply available but…
• Billet costs not set to fall
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 2016 2017 2018
German upcharge over DP ingotJapan 3M CIF upchargeUS Midwest upcharge ¢/lb (RHS)
European billet surcharge to move above US Midwest
Regional billet premiums, $/t, (¢/lb RHS)
![Page 11: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Tight Margins – Will stronger consumption improve profits?
Data: CRU
• Margins expected to tighten
•Conversion costs flat despite higher
demand
•Billet premiums to rise
•Pressure from importers
•Impact of high LME prices?
![Page 12: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
• Adoption in transportation
• Building and construction rates begin to stabilise
European Demand: What is behind strong growth?
• Imports higher due to strong demand, stocks drawn down
• Billet costs increasing
Market Dynamics: How have trade and costs changed?
Conclusion
What is driving European demand ? How has this affected
trade and costs? Can strong growth be sustained?
![Page 13: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Conclusion
Strong demand driven by increasing intensity of use
Adoption in new products to offset fall in automobile sales
Imports to become a larger part of the market
Margins for European extruders to tighten
Data: CRU
![Page 14: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Conclusion
Data: CRU
![Page 15: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
CRU’s office locations
CRU's reputation with customers across mining, metals and fertilizers is for integrity,
reliability, independence and authority.
About CRU
CRU's insights are built on a twin commitment to quality primary research and robust,
transparent methodologies.
CRU invests in a global team of
analysts, the key to gaining a real
understanding of critical hard-to-reach
markets such as China.
CRU – big enough to deliver a high quality service, small enough to care about all our
customers.
We strive to provide customers with the
best service and closest contact –
flexible, personal, responsive.
www.crugroup.com
![Page 16: European Aluminium Extrusion Market · PDF fileEuropean Aluminium Extrusion Market Outlook Henry Van, CRU Aluminium Aluminium-21 / Surface Treatment & Finishing Conference Moscow,](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022020120/5a8574b57f8b9aa5408c8592/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Visit www.crugroup.com
Data: CRU
Our offices
London
Beijing
Hong Kong
Mumbai
New York
Pittsburgh
Santiago
Shanghai
Sydney
Tokyo