europe towards 2030 : territorial challenges ahead andreu ulied, mcrit / roberto camagni, polimi...
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Europe towards 2030: Territorial Challenges Ahead
Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / Roberto Camagni, POLIMIESPON Scenarios and Vision project
REGI Committee of European Parliament25 June 2013 Brussels
Consortium
To develop a Vision for the Europen territory for 2050 involving the 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, and relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level.
Goal
Five Steps Methodology
Forecast Models
Demography
MULTIPOLES Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030)
ESPON at NUTS2 IOM
Economy MASST3 Econometric: social, macroeconomic andTerritorial (up to 2030)
ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI
TransportMOSAIC Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices(up to 2030)
EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT
Land-useMETRONAMICA Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050)
EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS
IntegratedSASI Dynamic System linked to transport networks(up to 2050)
ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3
S&W
• What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?
• More Regional disparities?• Reoriented Globalisation?• Further Spatial Polarisation?
• How could be the Vision for Europe in 2050? •
• A “New Generation” of Cohesion policies is needed?
Questions proposed for discussion:
The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?
GDP Growth 2008-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3
GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %
GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)
GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)
IMFMASST3
GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)
IMF
MASST3
Population Change 2010-2030
Population: from 514 to 530 inh.
Population ageing 2010-2030
Population > 65 years: from 17 % to 24 %
Total Employment Change 2010-2030
Employment a.a.: 1,59 %
Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030
The Crisis Aftermath... + Reoriented Globalisation?
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)
EUROSTAT
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)
Foreign Investments of EU companies
EUROSTAT
Spain UK
Germany
-40.000
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)
Japan Offshore financial centers
Russia United States
Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)
France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany
-40.000
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)
Japan Offshore financial centers
Russia United States
Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)
France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany
France
UK
The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?
Source : DREWRY, 2008
America Asia
13,3 MTEU
6,7 MTEU
20 MTEU
2,2 MTEU
2,2 MTEU4,4 MTEU
13,3 MTEU
5,1 MTEU
18,4 MTEU
Europe
World maritime container traffic. 2008*
Top 10 ports 2009
European Gateways: Port and Airports
Road and Rail European Transport Networks
Rail Roads
Analysis of the relative interest of different links (potential traffic increases per cost)
1) Moderate Economic Growth…
2) Increasing Regional Gaps…
3) More Jobs and Lower Salaries...
4) More Labour Mobility in Europe…
5) Population Ageing…
6) Increasingly diversified Globalisation…
7) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…
Key Baseline Conclusions...
1. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?
2. What could be the Vision for European in 2050?
3. A “New Generation” of Cohesion Policies is needed?
Second Question...
Exploratory Scenarios for 2010-2050
Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios
Framework conditions
Baseline
1Economic
decline
2Technicaladvance
3Energy/Climatecosts
Promotion of global regions A A1 A2 A3
Promotion of large urban regions B B1 B2 B3
Promotion of rural and peripheral regions
C C1 C2 C3
GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)
... Territorial A, B and C Strategies have marginal impacts on growth
Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051
2007 Crisis
...Territorial A, B and C Strategies have significant impacts on cohesion
National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051
Polycentrism
• Polycentric territorial development
• Integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions
• Integration in cross-border, transnational & neighbouring regions
• Regions as places with global competitiveness
• Accessibility and connectivity to open up regional potentials
• Landscape and cultural values as assets
• Ecological Sustainability and Climate Change Adaptation
Which Strategies are to be considered for the 2050 Territorial Vision?
According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004:
"It is a different country now. That's also because European contributions"
How Cohesion policies could be reformed?
• + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment
• + Place-based focus towards endogenous development
• + Sensitivity to economic cycles
• + Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment
• + Land-Use instruments in vulnerable areas
• + Investments in Neighboring Countries
How Cohesion policies should be reformed in the long-run?
“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
Further information:
www.espon.euwww.et2050.eu (working documents)