europe – quarter 3, 2016 - nielsen value growth: • percentage change in value sales...
TRANSCRIPT
EUROPE – QUARTER 3, 2016
Nov 2016
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INTRODUCTION
• Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.
• Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.
• Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels
• Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels
• Reports on the 3rd Quarter of 2016 • Week 27, 2016 till week 39, 2016
This report:
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EUROPE OVERVIEW Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics (Weighted average)
(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
2,6%
1,8%
1,3%
1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7%
1,3%
0,7% 0,7% 0,8%
-0,1%
0,7%
1,1% 0,3%
1,5%
1,9%
0,7%
1,3%
0,8%
0,8%
0,1%
0,3%
2,5% 2,6%
2,4%
2,0%
3,1%
3,6%
2,4%
3,0%
2,1%
1,5%
0,8%
1,1%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal Value Growth
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Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
Spain Portugal
Greece
Italy Turkey
Switzer- land
Austria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania Belarus
Ukraine
Romania Hungary
Slovakia Moldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte- negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia- Herze- govina
Mace- donia
Albania
Norway
Nether- lands
Belgium
Sweden
Nominal Growth
Q3 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2015)
Growth Rate above Europe Average
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
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Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
Spain Portugal
Greece
Italy Turkey
Switzer- land
Austria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
Romania Hungary
Slovakia Moldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte- negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia- Herze- govina
Mace- donia
Albania
Norway
Nether- lands
Belgium
Sweden
Unit Value Growth
Q3 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2015)
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
Growth Rate above Europe Average
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Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
Spain Portugal
Greece
Italy Turkey
Switzer- land
Austria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
Romania Hungary
Slovakia Moldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte- negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia- Herze- govina
Mace- donia
Albania
Norway
Nether- lands
Belgium
Sweden
Volume Growth
Q3 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2015)
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
Growth Rate above Europe Average
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Q3 2016 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2015) Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,5%
-2,5%
-0,2% 0,0% -0,7% -1,0%
1,3% 0,9% 1,1% 2,0% 2,3%
-0,7%
1,2% 0,6% 2,0%
5,2%
1,5% 0,5%
-0,8% 0,1%
5,7%
-8,7% -3,4%
-0,5% -0,4% 0,3%
1,4%
-0,7% -0,2% -0,3% -1,0% -0,8%
2,2% 0,3% 1,0%
0,0%
-2,9%
0,8% 2,7% 4,3% 3,5%
2,4%
-6,3% -6,0%
-0,7% -0,4% -0,4% 0,3% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 1,0%
1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 2,0% 2,3% 2,3%
3,2% 3,5% 3,6%
8,1%
Unit value Volume growth Nominal Value Growth
DETAILS BY COUNTRY
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AUSTRIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,3%
1,7% 2,0% 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 1,9% 1,6% 1,2% 0,9%
1,3%
-0,7% -0,9%
1,7%
-3,5%
-0,3%
0,9% 0,4%
3,9%
1,4% 1,4%
-1,1% -0,7%
2,6%
0,8%
3,7%
-1,0%
2,0%
3,3%
2,7%
5,9%
3,0% 2,6%
-0,2%
0,6%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
** Only Grocery retail from Q1 14-Q4 15, for all other periods Grocery and Drug retail
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BELGIUM Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,2%
1,2% 1,2% 1,4%
0,4% 0,3% 0,4%
1,5%
2,3%
3,4% 2,9%
2,3%
0,0%
1,2%
0,0%
-0,6% -0,2%
1,4%
-0,1%
0,2%
-0,8%
-1,7%
-2,9%
-0,8%
2,2% 2,4%
1,2%
0,8%
0,2%
1,7%
0,3%
1,7% 1,5%
1,7%
0,0%
1,5%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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CZECH REPUBLIC Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,5% 2,9%
0,4%
3,2% 2,9%
2,6%
1,3%
0,7% 0,2%
-0,2%
-1,2% -1,3%
-0,7%
-1,6%
-0,2%
1,7%
1,2%
-1,5%
-0,2%
1,2%
1,7%
3,3%
0,8%
3,0% 3,0%
2,2% 1,0%
2,7%
2,1%
4,4%
1,4%
2,4% 2,5% 2,4%
3,5%
0,6%
1,8% 1,7% 1,5%
2013 2014 2015 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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DENMARK Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,4%
0,0% 0,1% 0,2%
-0,4%
0,1%
-0,2% -0,2%
0,3%
1,5%
-0,7%
0,0%
0,2% 1,0% 0,7%
1,0%
0,3%
0,7%
0,1%
0,6%
1,2%
0,1%
1,0%
-0,4%
0,6%
1,0%
0,8%
1,2%
-0,1%
0,9%
0,0%
0,5%
1,5%
1,7%
0,3%
-0,4%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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FINLAND Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,7%
0,5%
-2,2%
1,9%
-0,4%
-3,0%
-1,7% -2,4% -2,7%
-1,9% -3,0% -2,5%
0,4%
-2,0%
0,2%
-5,0%
-1,2%
0,8%
-0,5%
2,6% 1,7%
-0,7%
-1,6% -3,4%
4,1%
-1,5% -2,0%
-3,1%
-1,6%
-2,2% -2,2%
0,2%
-1,0%
-2,6%
-4,6%
-6,0%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
FMCG excluding tobacco & magazines
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FRANCE Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,8%
0,2%
1,0%
-0,7%
0,0% 0,2% 0,3%
1,0% 1,1%
1,4%
0,2%
0,9%
1,2%
1,1%
0,6%
1,3%
0,6%
1,7%
0,8%
0,7% 0,4%
0,8%
0,3%
-0,2%
2,0%
1,3%
1,6%
0,6% 0,6%
1,9%
1,1%
1,7%
1,5%
2,2%
0,5%
0,7%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
Click & Drive channel included from 2013 data (2014 trends) Convenience Stores included from 2014 data (2015 trends);
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GERMANY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,3%
1,6% 1,3%
1,0% 0,9%
0,4%
1,7% 1,4%
1,7%
1,2% 0,9%
1,1%
-0,9%
-0,1%
0,8%
-0,8%
0,4%
2,4%
-0,2%
1,1%
-0,2%
-1,5%
-0,6% -0,3%
2,4%
1,5%
2,1%
0,2%
1,3%
2,8%
1,5%
2,5%
1,5%
-0,3%
0,3%
0,8%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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GREECE Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-2,4% -0,7% 0,1% -0,6% -0,8% -1,7% -1,5%
0,9%
3,4% 5,4% 4,5%
2,5% 0,1%
-0,7% -0,9%
0,4%
-3,1% -0,5%
2,5%
-2,3% -2,6%
-12,2%
-15,3%
-8,7%
-2,2% -1,4%
-0,8% -0,2%
-3,9%
-2,2%
1,0%
-1,4%
0,8%
-6,8%
-10,7%
-6,3%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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HUNGARY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics**
3,7%
1,7% 2,6%
1,9% 1,7% 1,7%
2,8% 1,8%
4,1%
3,2%
3,3%
5,2%
-3,3%
3,4%
4,1%
2,5% 3,2%
6,6%
2,2%
6,1% 1,7%
-1,6% -0,6%
-2,9%
0,4%
5,1%
6,7%
4,4% 4,9%
8,3%
5,0%
7,9%
5,8%
1,6%
2,7% 2,3%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
**Data has been reworked since Jan'2015, Drug categories contain July, Aug periods for Q3 2016 compared to 2015 July, August
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IRELAND Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,9%
0,6% 0,3%
0,8% 0,6%
1,8%
0,4% 0,0%
-0,6%
1,1% 1,3% 1,2%
-4,0%
0,5% 1,7%
-1,4%
1,1%
-2,3%
0,3%
2,4%
4,6%
1,1% 1,3%
0,3%
-1,1%
1,2%
2,0%
-0,6%
1,7%
-0,5%
0,7%
2,4%
4,0%
2,2% 2,6%
1,5%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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ITALY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,3%
-0,2%
0,5%
-0,6%
-0,2% 0,0%
0,6%
1,1%
0,3%
-0,3%
-0,9% -1,0% -1,1% -0,5%
1,0%
-0,6%
-0,9%
1,9%
-0,2%
0,9%
1,1%
0,4%
2,1%
1,4%
-0,8% -0,7%
1,5%
-1,2% -1,2%
1,9%
0,4%
2,0%
1,4%
0,1%
1,2%
0,3%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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NETHERLANDS Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,2%
1,5% 1,2%
1,7% 2,1% 2,0%
0,8% 0,9% 1,1% 1,3%
1,9% 2,0%
-1,6%
-0,9%
0,0%
-0,5% -0,6% -0,2% -0,1% 0,0%
0,2%
-0,6% -1,0% -1,0%
1,6%
0,6%
1,2% 1,2%
1,4%
1,7%
0,7% 0,9%
1,4%
0,7% 0,9%
1,0%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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NORWAY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,1%
1,5% 1,3%
1,7%
0,5%
-0,1%
1,0%
2,3% 2,1%
0,8%
2,1% 2,0%
2,9%
2,8%
1,7%
2,6%
2,5% 3,2% 1,2%
1,3% 1,4%
2,5%
1,4%
0,0%
3,0%
4,3%
3,0%
4,3%
3,0% 3,1%
2,2%
3,6% 3,5%
3,3%
3,5%
2,0%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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POLAND Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,8% 1,0%
-0,2%
1,2%
0,2% -0,1% -0,1%
-0,5%
0,1% 0,5%
1,2% 1,5%
-0,1%
0,3% 2,7%
-1,2%
3,1%
2,7%
1,7%
4,5%
1,2%
4,4%
1,8% 0,8%
0,7%
1,2%
2,4%
0,0%
3,2%
2,6%
1,5%
4,0%
1,4%
4,8%
2,9%
2,3%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
**Data has been reworked since Jan'2013 because of transition to new database platform (CIP)
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PORTUGAL Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,6%
-0,6% -0,3%
-0,9% -0,4%
0,5%
-0,4% -0,6%
-1,3% -1,8%
-0,9%
0,5%
0,5%
-0,5%
1,8%
-1,5%
-1,4%
-0,1%
1,7%
3,1%
2,3%
3,6%
1,2%
2,7%
1,1%
-1,1%
1,4%
-2,4%
-1,8%
0,5%
1,3%
2,5%
0,9%
1,8%
0,3%
3,2%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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SLOVAKIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,2%
0,2% 0,5%
0,3% -0,1% -0,1%
0,3% 0,3% 0,2%
-0,8%
-0,2%
-0,8%
-2,6%
2,5% 1,7%
0,7%
3,6% 3,3%
1,1%
3,8%
0,2%
4,1%
1,2%
4,3%
0,6%
2,7%
2,3%
1,0%
3,5%
3,2%
1,4%
4,1%
0,4%
3,3%
1,0%
3,5%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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SPAIN Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1,5%
-0,7%
0,9%
-1,4% -1,1%
0,7% 0,9%
1,2% 1,4%
0,8% 0,4%
0,1%
-0,4%
1,4%
1,6%
2,1%
1,0%
0,2%
1,1%
1,9% 1,3% 2,2%
1,7%
3,5%
1,1%
0,7%
2,4%
0,7%
-0,1%
0,9%
2,0%
3,0%
2,7%
3,1%
2,1%
3,6%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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SWEDEN Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,2%
0,8%
2,5%
0,6%
1,4% 1,8%
2,6% 2,8% 2,6%
1,9%
1,2%
0,6%
1,3%
1,1%
1,4%
1,9%
-0,2%
2,4%
0,1%
1,0%
2,3%
0,4% 2,0%
1,0%
3,5%
1,9%
3,9%
2,5%
1,2%
4,2%
2,7%
3,8%
4,9%
2,3%
3,2%
1,6%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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SWITZERLAND Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0,8% 1,1%
-1,0%
0,4% 0,5%
-1,1% -1,3%
-1,6% -1,6% -1,5% -1,2%
-0,7%
0,7% 0,1%
-0,3%
-0,3%
0,5%
-1,3%
0,9%
0,1%
-0,7%
0,8%
0,3% 0,3%
1,5%
1,2%
-1,3%
0,1%
1,0%
-2,4%
-0,4%
-1,5%
-2,3%
-0,7%
-0,9%
-0,4%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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TURKEY Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
6,8%
8,2% 9,4% 9,0% 9,0%
9,7% 9,5% 9,5% 9,2% 8,5%
6,8% 5,7%
3,8%
5,4% 2,9% 4,7%
7,9%
5,0%
3,6% 2,9%
0,3% 1,2%
2,1%
2,4%
10,6%
13,6%
12,3%
13,7%
16,9%
14,7%
13,1% 12,4%
9,5% 9,7%
8,9%
8,1%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
Due to exclusion of Alcohol and Tobacco, history is updated from Q3 13
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UK Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,2%
1,3%
-0,2%
0,7% 0,2%
-0,7% -0,4%
0,2% 0,1% 0,1%
-0,5% -0,2%
-1,1%
-1,9%
-0,3%
-2,5%
-0,5%
0,5%
-0,4%
-0,5% -0,6%
0,4%
-1,1%
-0,5%
2,1%
-0,6% -0,5%
-1,8%
-0,3% -0,2%
-0,8%
-0,3% -0,5%
0,5%
-1,6%
-0,7%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
EXTENDED EUROPE
Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia
Lithuania Macedonia Romenia Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine
• Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles • Categories covered in food and drug channels
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BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
-0,2%
-1,4%
-2,9%
-0,2% -0,5% -0,7% -1,8% -1,7% -2,6% -2,6%
-3,5%
-1,5%
-1,7% -1,3% -0,5%
1,6%
-4,5%
3,0% 4,0% 3,0%
-8,4%
-4,0%
1,0%
7,8%
0,3%
-1,7%
-1,5% -1,9%
-1,3%
-4,7%
2,5% 3,3%
1,2%
-10,1%
-6,6%
-1,5%
4,3%
-1,2%
-3,4%
2013 2014 2015 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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BULGARIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1,2% 0,3%
-0,5%
1,0% 1,5%
0,5% 0,3% 0,1% -0,9% -0,8%
-0,1%
1,5% 1,3%
-3,7%
0,9% 2,4%
-5,5% -6,2%
0,3% 0,1%
2,0%
3,8% 2,8%
1,1%
1,6% 1,1%
-2,5%
1,1%
2,0%
-4,5% -4,7%
0,8% 0,4%
2,0%
2,9%
2,0%
1,1%
3,1%
2,5%
2013 2014 2015 Apr- Aug 13Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr- Aug 14Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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CROATIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0,8%
-2,8%
-0,2% -0,1%
-1,2%
-2,4%
-3,5%
-2,4%
-1,1%
0,5% 0,1%
-2,6%
-1,1%
1,4%
-1,7%
2,3%
0,1%
2,9%
-1,6%
-0,4% -3,1%
1,8%
1,8% 3,2%
4,3%
1,7% 0,5%
-4,4%
2,1%
-0,1%
1,7%
-3,9% -3,9%
-5,5%
0,8%
2,3%
3,3%
1,7%
0,6%
2013 2014 2015 Apr -Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr -Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr -Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr -Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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ESTONIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,9%
2,8%
0,5%
2,5% 1,9%
1,0% 1,2%
0,2% 0,6% 0,9%
2,4%
3,6%
1,0%
2,0%
0,7%
2,8%
0,4%
1,1% 0,7%
0,1% 0,1%
1,3%
-1,5%
-2,4%
5,0% 4,8%
1,2%
5,3%
2,3% 2,0% 1,9%
0,3% 0,7%
2,2%
0,8% 1,2%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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3,3%
-1,6% -1,1%
-2,0%
-3,8% -2,8%
-2,0% -1,1%
1,8%
0,5% -0,5% -0,5%
-1,1%
-1,0%
0,4%
-0,5%
-1,9%
3,0%
-2,5%
0,5%
0,6%
-1,7%
4,9%
1,8%
2,2%
-2,6%
-0,7%
-2,5%
-5,7%
0,1%
-4,5%
-0,6%
2,4%
-1,2%
4,4%
1,2%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
ISRAEL Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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FYR MACEDONIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
6,9%
0,0% 2,5% 3,5%
6,8%
3,0%
-2,3%
0,9% 1,3% 0,8% 2,6%
4,1% 5,0% 2,8% 2,6%
1,2% 14,3%
6,0% 4,4%
-0,6%
15,3% 20,2%
12,2% 10,8% 11,3%
4,3% 2,5%
6,1%
1,8%
5,3%
8,1%
14,3%
8,5% 7,9%
6,1%
18,3% 17,7%
13,1% 12,1% 12,1%
6,9% 6,6%
11,1%
4,6%
7,9%
2011 2012 2013 2014Apr-Aug
11Aug-Dec
11Dec-Apr
12Apr-Aug
12Aug-Dec
12Dec-Apr
13Apr-Aug
13Aug-Dec
13Dec-Apr
14Apr-Aug
14Aug-Dec
14
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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KAZAKHSTAN Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
8,0%
13,2%
6,2%
14,7% 13,9% 13,1% 10,9%
5,1% 3,2% 2,5% 5,1%
7,6% 11,7%
15,9% 17,3%
-1,0%
8,9%
-6,4%
7,0%
1,3% 0,3%
-1,5%
-9,0% -13,4% -12,3%
-7,4% -6,1% -4,3%
3,3%
6,4%
7%
22%
0%
22%
15% 13%
9%
-4%
-10% -10%
-2%
1%
7%
19%
24%
2013 2014 2015AS-SO2014
ON-ND2014 DJ-JF 2015
FM-MA2015
AM-MJ2015 JJ-JA 2015
AS-SO2015
ON-ND2015 DJ-JF 2016
FM-MA2016
AM-MJ2016 JJ-JA 2016
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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LATVIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2,6%
2,0%
-0,5%
1,9%
0,9%
-0,4% -0,6%
-1,1%
0,0%
0,9%
1,8% 2,3%
2,0%
1,1%
1,5%
1,8%
0,3%
3,4%
1,1% 1,3%
0,2%
0,1%
0,2%
-0,1%
4,6%
3,1%
1,0%
3,7%
1,1%
3,0%
0,5%
0,2% 0,2%
1,0%
1,9%
2,2%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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LITHUANIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1,4% 2,1% 1,7% 2,2% 1,7% 1,9% 1,9% 1,4% 1,9% 2,4% 2,8% 3,5%
2,9% 1,8%
-0,4%
1,7% 2,6%
-1,0% -0,9%
0,4%
-0,2%
5,3%
-3,0%
-7,3%
4,4% 3,9%
1,4%
3,9% 4,4%
0,9% 1,0% 1,8% 1,7%
5,4%
-0,2%
-3,8%
2013 2014 2015 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
Historical data has been changed as there is a change in Total Country selection from 2014 onwards
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MONTENEGRO Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,1% 1,6%
-5,9%
3,3% 3,6% 0,9% 2,5% 1,5% 1,2% 0,3% -0,4% -0,1%
2,3%
-20,0% -20,5%
0,4%
-19,9%
-34,4% -30,6%
-16,8% -13,9%
-11,1%
-6,1%
-0,3% 2,9%
3,4%
-16,9% -18,8%
-5,5%
-16,5%
-30,8% -29,7%
-14,3% -12,5%
-9,9%
-5,8%
-0,7%
2,7%
5,7%
2013 2014 2015 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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-0,8% -2,5% -1,1%
-1,3%
-1,2% 0,6% -2,8%
-5,8% -6,6% -2,4%
0,5% 8,1% 1,5%
-0,4%
1,6% 3,6% 8,9% 12,2%
14,2%
10,9%
-0,3%
5,6%
0,4%
-1,7%
0,4%
4,2%
6,2% 6,3% 7,5%
8,5%
2014 2015 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
ROMANIA (*) Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
(*) reworked data with all the major RMS categories included except for: Cigarettes, Make-up&Incontinence, reduction of VAT from 24% to 9% for food categories. New chains integration.
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RUSSIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
9,3% 10,3%
15,0%
10,9% 12,2%
15,0% 14,8% 14,3% 13,8% 14,1% 11,8%
8,5% 7,1% 7,6%
-2,9% -1,6% -2,0% -1,3%
0,5%
-3,1% -4,0% -2,7% -2,4%
-0,2%
-3,2%
0,4%
-0,8% -0,8%
6,4%
8,7%
13,0%
9,6%
12,7% 12,0%
10,8% 11,6% 11,4%
13,9%
8,6% 8,9%
6,4% 6,8%
2013 2014 2015 ON/ND '14 DJ/JF '15FM/MA
'15 AM/MJ '15 JJ/JA '15 AS/SO '15 ON/ND '15 DJ/JF '16FM/MA
'16 AM/MJ '16 JJ/JA '16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growthMinor changes in back data are due to transition of Cigars, Cigarettes and Tobacco to CIP
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SERBIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
12,5%
2,7%
0,9%
14,0%
6,0% 4,3%
2,3% 1,4% -1,7%
0,9% 1,7% 4,6% 3,7%
-6,6% -5,4%
0,5%
-7,8% -10,2% -10,6%
-4,0% -1,4%
1,4% -0,4%
2,3%
-0,1%
0,6%
5,9%
-2,7%
1,3%
6,2%
-4,1%
-6,3%
-1,7%
0,0% -0,4% 0,4%
3,9% 4,4% 4,2%
2013 2014 2015Apr-Aug
13Aug-
Dec13Dec-Apr
14Apr-Aug
14Aug-
Dec14Dec-Apr
15Apr-Aug
15Aug-
Dec15Dec-Apr
16Apr-Aug
16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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SLOVENIA Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0,6% -0,5% -0,8%
-2,1% -1,4% -1,1%
0,1% 0,6%
-0,9% -1,4%
-0,7% -1,0% -0,5%
-0,9%
0,0%
-2,7%
-1,6%
1,5%
3,2%
0,8%
-3,2%
-4,6%
-2,6% -1,2%
-1,0%
-1,0%
3,1% 2,5%
0,7%
-2,5%
-3,3%
-2,1%
0,7% 1,1%
-0,5%
-4,3% -4,5%
-2,0% -2,0% -2,4%
-1,8%
2,0% 2,0%
-1,6%
-2,5%
2013 2014 2015Aug-Dec
12Dec-Apr
13Apr-Aug
13Aug-Dec
13Dec-Apr
14Apr-Aug
14Aug-Dec
14Dec-Apr
15Apr-Aug
15Aug-Dec
15Dec-Apr
16Apr-Aug
16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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UKRAINE Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3,8%
11,2%
35,8%
3,1% 3,8% 4,1%
10,5%
18,5%
30,0%
40,7% 36,5%
27,5%
12,1%
11,8% 0,1%
-10,2%
10,8% 8,0% 2,9%
-0,6% -1,7% -5,8%
-12,2% -12,4% -9,1%
-3,6%
15,6%
11,3%
25,6%
13,9% 11,8%
6,9%
9,9%
16,9%
24,2%
28,5%
24,1%
18,4%
8,5%
2013 2014 2015 Apr-Aug 13 Aug-Dec 13 Dec-Apr 14 Apr-Aug 14 Aug-Dec 14 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
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Glossary • Nominal value growth:
• Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories
• Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):
– Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories
– The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)
– The change in average price per unit may result from:
– Price changes of individual products
– Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.
– Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.
– Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.
– The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behaviour.
• Volume growth:
– Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products
• The three components are related:
– Value Growth = Unit Value Growth * Volume Growth
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Appendix: Calculations • For each country, the value growth index V and the Unit
Value growth index I have been calculated for each available product category c.
• The overall Unit Value Index across all categories has been calculated as a weighted average of the category indexes where each category is weighted according to its share in the covered expenditures in the end period (Young Index).
• Volume, Value, Unit Value growth indexes are multiplicatively related to each other :
Value Growth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth For ease of presentation, the relative volume change (in
percentages) has been approximated by taking simple differences (difference is immaterial) :
VolumeChange = ValueChange – UnitValue change
• More detail on subject, see : • ILO Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and
Practice. • http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guide
s/cpi/index.htm
∑∑ ==
−−
=
−=
−−
−
−
c
ctc
ctt
cttt
ctt
ctt
tcSalesValuetcSalesValuewIwI
tceSalesVolumtcSalesValue
tceSalesVolumtcSalesValue
I
tcSalesValuetcSalesValueV
],[],[
]1,[]1,[
],[],[
]1,[],[
;1;1
;1
;1