europe credit markets update –3q 2020– spreads remain persistently higher than pre-covid levels,...

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Europe Credit Markets Update – 3Q 2020

Sarah Limbach, Economist – Credit Markets [email protected]

Sundaram Iyer, Senior Analyst – [email protected]

Sudeep Kesh, Head of Credit Markets [email protected]

Evan Gunter, Lead Research Analyst – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]



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Financing ConditionsHighlights



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Europe Financing | Limited Risk Aversion

3

Note: Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. “Europe” includes the following countries: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Slovenia, Luxembourg, San Marino, Monaco, Malta, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Slovak Republic, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. Source: S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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984

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308237

866

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446

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Europe Investment-Grade Europe Speculative-Grade

GFC Median GFC High Beginning Of 2020 COVID High Most Recent

C

(bps)– Spreads remain persistently higher

than Pre-COVID levels, though considerably tighter than peaks. Swift and sizable fiscal and monetary stimulus gave investor confidence a needed boost. Despite this speculative-grade spreads are over 4x wider than investment-grade, up from 3.5x at the beginning of the year.

– In March, high uncertainties around the health and economic outlook exacerbated vulnerabilities in credit markets, pushing European speculative-grade spreads to nearly three times—around 530 basis points (bps)- above the level at the beginning of the year.

– Nevertheless, the recent peak in spreads was less than 40% of what was seen during the GFC. Notably the ECB’s €1.3 trillion pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) and the loosening of collateral rules helped speculative-grade spreads compress by 420bps by end-August.



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Europe | Corporate Issuance

4Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Data including both Financials and Non-Financials. Source: S&P Global Ratings; Thomson Reuters.

– Investment-grade issuance overtook 2019 year-to-date levels in April. Issuance picked up strongly in April following the ECB’s announcement of PEPP on March 18. This was mainly driven by investment-grade issuance, which surged in April from March.

– Speculative-grade issuance is marginally above its 2019 level on a year-to-date basis.

– Capital costs, while considerably lower, remain asymmetric – namely, yields of ‘B’ nonfinancial issues are over 10x that of ‘BBB’ issues, compared to 8x at the beginning of 2020.

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Europe Non-Financial Bond Issuance

2019, Investment-Grade 2019, Speculative-Grade


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(€ Bil.)

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

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(€ B

il.)

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Europe Regional New Bond Issuance

Europe -OverallFinancial

Nonfinancials

Investment-GradeSpeculative-Grade

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Europe | Corporate Issuance Regional


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Eurozone

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Europe | Corporate Credit Spread and Yield


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European Corporate Credit SpreadXover 5yr (rhs) 5yr Corp (lhs) 5yr Fin Snr (lhs)bps

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%

Nonfinancial Yields By RatingsAA A BBB BB Bbps



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Corporate Issuance| Europe

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Data of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings; Thomson Financial.

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European Cumulative Bond Issuance, including both Financial and Non-Financial Corporates, remains above last year’s volumes as of end-August, following the pick-up in April.

2009 2015 2017 2019 2020

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(€ Bil.)

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: Thomson Financial; S&P Ratings.



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Europe Corporate Issuance| By Market

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YTD through Aug. for years 2016-2020. * through August For 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research; Thomson Reuters.

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European Bond Issuance – Year-To-Date Through August

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European Nonfinancials | €2 Trillion In Debt Matures Through 2025

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– Maturities now peak in 2024, when €407 billion is scheduled to mature.

– In first-half 2020, nonfinancial companies refinanced, paid down, or otherwise reduced 3% of debt maturing in second-half 2020 through 2021.

– New issuance contributed to a 6% increase in debt maturities from 2022 through 2025.

– The sharpest increase was for debt maturing in 2025--up 14% to €394.6 billion.

Note: Includes bonds, loans, and revolving credit facilities that are rated by S&P Global Ratings on the respective report date. Foreign currencies are converted to euros on the respective report period date. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

European Nonfinancial Corporate Maturity Wall

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As of 7/1/2019 As of 1/1/2020 As of 7/1/2020



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European Nonfinancials | €591 Billion In Spec-Grade Corporate Debt Matures Through 2025

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– Nonfinancial companies have reduced by 7% the speculative-grade debt maturing in second-half 2020 through 2024.

– Maturities now peak in 2025, with €165 billion scheduled to mature.

– New issuance in first-half 2020 helped to lift 2025 debt maturities by nearly 4%.

Note: Includes bonds, loans, and revolving credit facilities that are rated by S&P Global Ratings on the respective report date. Foreign currencies are converted euros on the respective report period date. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

European Speculative-Grade Nonfinancial Corporate Maturity Wall

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European Financial Services | €2.03 Trillion Matures Through 2025

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– Maturities now peak in 2022, when €429 billion is scheduled to mature.

– Following new issuance in first-half 2020, maturities in 2021-2025 have risen by 8% this year.

– The largest increase in annual maturities is for debt maturing in 2025, which increased by 21% since Jan. 1, 2020.

Note: Includes bonds, loans, and revolving credit facilities that are rated by S&P Global Ratings on the respective report date. Foreign currencies are converted to euros on the respective report period date. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

European Financial Services Maturity Wall

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Ratings Trends and OutlooksSummary



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Europe| COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

13

Number of negative rating actions by week since Feb. 3. Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings

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Week 7 Week 11 Week 13 Week 15 Week 17 Week 19 Week 21 Week 23 Week 25 Week 27 Week 29 Week 31 Week 33 Week 35

COVID-19 / Oil Price Rating Actions By Week

Downgrade Downgrade + CW Change OL Change CreditWatch Negative



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Europe| COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions By Sector

14

– Speculative-grade dominance. More than half of COVID-19 or Oil-related actions in Europe have been on issuers with a speculative-grade rating.

– Insurance and utilities stand out as the two sectors that didn’t see any ratings actions in the speculative-grade space.

Number in parenthesis signifies total number of negative rating actions in the sector since Feb. 3. Media and entertainment excludes entities within Hotels and gaming. Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

50%33%

19%89%

83%57%

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Aerospace and defense (6)Automotive (28)

Banks (74)Building materials (10)

Business and consumer…Capital goods (43)

Chemicals (19)Commercial and professional…

Consumer products (26)Energy (16)

Health care (11)Homebuilders and developers (1)

Hotels and gaming (12)Insurance (3)

Media and entertainment (29)Metals and mining (4)

NBFI (18)Real estate (19)

Retailing (33)Sovereign (8)

Technology (11)Telecom (3)

Transportation (34)Transportation infra (4)

Utilities (7)

% Of Speculative-Grade Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions

% Of Speculative-Grade Downgrades



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Europe | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

15

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to Aug 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

European banks have the highest count of entities with a negative outlook or placed on CreditWatch due to Covid-19. This is mainly due to their exposure to vulnerable sectors as well as knock-on effects of sovereigns. Nevertheless, due to their indirect exposure to the pandemic’s economic impact, downgrade pressure is less immediate than in other sectors. As a result, the sector has seen comparably few rating actions.

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COVID-19 / Oil Price Rating Actions By SectorCount of Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions Count of Downgrades



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Europe | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

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– Europe saw the most downgrades due to Covid-19 in April following the surge in CreditWatch and outlook changes in March. Gradually this count has decreased steadily seeing only 18 rating actions due to Covid-19. The composition of rating actions has changed towards downgrades from outlook placements as the latter get resolved, either trough downgrades or revisions to Stable.

– The U.K . (96) and France (59) are the European countries that saw most downgrades due to Covid-19 between March and August.

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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17

Europe | Rating Distribution

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Almost half of the European Non-Financial Corporates are rated speculative-grade. Consumer products, media and entertainment and health care are the sectors with the highest count of single-B rated issuers.

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Aerospace & Defense (9)

Automotive (30)

Bank (103)

Capital Goods (60)

Chemicals, Packaging, & Environmental Services (60)

Consumer Products (126)

Forest Products & Building Materials (36)

Health Care (72)

High Technology (52)

Homebuilders/Real Estate Co. (51)

Insurance (60)

Media and Entertainment (75)

Metals, Mining, & Steel (20)

NonBank Financial Institutions (41)

Oil & Gas (33)

Retail/Restaurants (31)

Sovereign (38)

Telecommunications (45)

Transportation (32)

Utilities (92)

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC & Lower



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Downgrade Potential | Outlook And CreditWatch Distribution By Sector

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– Transportation, followed by media and lodging and aerospace and defense are the sectors with most placements on CreditWatch negative. This is largely due to prolonged social distancing measures.

– Placements on CreditWatch indicate a higher vulnerability of a rating. They are reviewed more timely than outlooks and therefore historically have a higher likelihood to be followed by a downgrade.

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020 and exclude sovereign. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source : S&P Global Ratings Research.

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Negative CreditWatch%Negative Outlook%



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Europe | Downgrade Potential By Sector

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Automotive, transportation, leisure, lodging and entertainment sectors have the highest downgrade potential in Europe

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020 and include sectors with more than five issuers only; excludes Sovereign. Media and entertainment excludes entities within Hotels and gaming. Source : S&P Global Ratings Research.

– The sectors with the most downgrade potentialremain those most exposed to the economic fallout caused by COVID-19 and social distancing measures aiming to reduce its spread.

– Automotive, transportation and media and entertainment (mostly subsectors leisure and lodging), are the hardest hit in Europe.

– The sectors’ vulnerability is reflected by the high negative bias, far above the five year-average in most sectors.

56%73%

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Aerospace & Defense…Automotive (30)

Bank (103)Capital Goods (60)

Consumer products…CP&ES (60)

Financial institutions…FP&BM (36)

Health Care (72)High technology (52)

Home/Re (51)Insurance (60)

Media/lodging (75)Metals/mining/steel (20)

Oil & Gas (33)Retail (31)

Telecommunications…Transportation (32)

Utilities (92)

Current Negative Bias (June 16, 2020)



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Europe | Current Vs Historic Downgrade Potentials

20

Med&Ent – Media & Entertainment, Auto - Automotive, MM&S - Metals, Mining & Steel, ConsPrd – Consumer Products, Ret/Res – Retail/ Restaurants, FP&BM –Forest Products & Building Materials, HiTech – High Technology, Transp - Transportation, CapGds – Capital Goods, Utils - Utilities, Aer&D – Aerospace & Defense, FinInst - Financial Institutions, Teleco – Telecommunications, Div - Diversified, CP&ES – Chemicals, Packaging & Environmental Services, OilG – Oil & Gas, HCare -Health Care, Ins - Insurance, HomeRE – Homebuilders/Real Estate Co., Sov – Sovereign. OL- Outlook; CW-- CreditWatch. Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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The sectors with the highest current downgrade potential show a significantly lower long-term downgrade potential, illustrating their vulnerability largely stems from the economic consequences of the COVID-19 spread.



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Europe | Outlook And CreditWatch Distribution

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings

About 47% of the speculative-grade issuers face downgrade risks while 53% of the risky credits are vulnerable to credit deterioration

Bank, leisure, lodging and entertainment and consumer products carry the highest count of negative outlooks and placements on CreditWatch Negative

Riskiest issuers

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Media/entertHealth care

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InsuranceHigh technology

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CreditWatch Negative Negative Outlook Stable

Positive Outlook CreditWatch Positive



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Ratings Action | Fallen Angels and Potential Fallen Angels

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– 13 Fallen Angels. Among the 13 fallen angels in Europe this year, three each are from the U.K., Germany, France and Italy. Automotive is the sector that counts most fallen angels in Europe (4) followed by transportation (3).

– Potential fallen angels have begun to decline as a handful have seen revisions in Outlooks to stable. Vulnerability also decreases as we see more negative outlooks than CreditWatch placements, which carry lower chance of being followed by a downgrade.

– For more information, see 'BBB' Pulse: The Potential Fallen Angels Total Starts To Decline From Record Highs, published Aug. 26, 2020.

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Media and entertainment includes subsectors media, leisure, lodging and entertainment. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

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https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?articleId=&ArtObjectId=11622026&ArtRevId=1&sid=&sind=A&



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23

Ratings Action | Corporate Fallen Angels With Highest Debt

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Date Issuer To From Sector CountryRated debt amount ($ Mil.)

10/9/2001 Railtrack PLC CC A Transportation United Kingdom $3,652

8/14/2002 Vivendi Universal S.A. BB BBB- Media & Entertainment France $16,635

12/9/2003 Parmalat Finanziaria SpA B+ BBB- Consumer Products Italy $7,177

4/19/2004 Adecco S.A. BB+ BBB- Media & Entertainment Switzerland $1,987

10/25/2005Allgemeine Hypothekenbank Rheinboden AG (BHW Holding AG) BB+ BBB- Bank Germany $3,908

1/26/2006 TDC A/S BB BBB+ Telecommunications Denmark $4,587

11/21/2007 BAA Ltd. BB- BBB+ Transportation United Kingdom $10,635

10/24/2008 HeidelbergCement AG BB+ BBB- Forest Products & Building Materials Germany $4,822

2/13/2009 Fortis SA/NV (Fortis Group) BB BBB- Bank Belgium $23,237

4/27/2010 Alpha Bank A.E. BB BBB Bank Greece $29,217

2/2/2011 Allied Irish Banks PLC BB BBB Bank Ireland $38,978

8/2/2012 ArcelorMittal BB+ BBB- Metals, Mining & Steel Luxembourg $23,824

11/14/2013 Telecom Italia SpA BB+ BBB- Telecommunications Italy $48,302

5/15/2014 AerCap Holdings N.V. BB+ BBB- Transportation Netherlands $16,800

1/14/2015 Tesco PLC BB+ BBB- Retail/Restaurants United Kingdom $17,195

2/18/2016 Anglo American PLC BB BBB- Metals, Mining & Steel United Kingdom $14,897

7/27/2017 Seagate Technology plc BB+ BBB- High Technology Ireland $4,950

5/9/2018 TDC A/S (DKT Holdings ApS) B+ BBB- Telecommunications Denmark $3,601

6/13/2019 Novomatic AG BB+ BBB- Media & Entertainment Austria $792

4/9/2020 Renault S.A. BB+ BBB- Automotive France $24,979



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Ratings Action| Rating Changes From 'B-' To 'CCC' Top 20 By Debt Amount (YTD)

24

Debt volume includes subsidiaries. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Aug. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Rating Date Issuer Country Sector Rating To Rating FromDebt Amount (US $ Mil)

6/19/2020 Toro Private Holdings I, Ltd United Kingdom Transportation CCC B- $3,300

3/30/2020 HNVR Midco Ltd. United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $2,670

4/1/2020 Kirk Beauty One GmbH Germany Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $2,543

4/2/2020 Weatherford International plc Ireland Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $2,490

4/20/2020 Diamond (BC) B.V. NetherlandsChemicals, Packaging & Environmental Services CCC+ B- $2,447

3/17/2020Casablanca Global Intermediate Holdings L.P.

British Virgin Islands Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,900

4/9/2020 Swissport Group S.a.r.l Luxembourg Transportation CCC B- $1,803

5/28/2020 Europcar Mobility Group S.A. France Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,703

4/14/2020 Richmond UK Holdco Ltd. United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,684

3/31/2020 Vallourec France Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $1,603

3/20/2020Hurtigruten Group AS (Silk Holdings Sarl) Norway Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $1,129

5/29/2020 Technicolor S.A. France High Technology CCC- B- $1,097

5/18/2020 L1R HB Finance Ltd United Kingdom Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $995

7/9/2020 Casper MidCo SAS France Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $981

6/23/2020 Comet Bidco Limited United Kingdom Media & Entertainment CCC+ B- $809

3/26/2020 Turnstone Midco 2 Ltd United Kingdom Health Care CCC B- $736

6/15/2020 Al Mistral Holdco Ltd. United Kingdom Transportation CCC+ B- $688

3/25/2020 EnQuest PLC United Kingdom Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC+ B- $650

4/1/2020 Maxeda DIY Group B.V. Netherlands Retail/Restaurants CCC+ B- $579

6/9/2020 Pro.Gest SpA Italy Forest Products & Building Materials CCC+ B- $566



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Ratings Summary| Sovereign In August

25

YTD data as of Aug. 31, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Country Rating Outlook 5 Year CDS Spread Median Rating Financials (OLCW) Median Rating Non - Financials(OLCW)Austria AA+ Stable 9 A ABelgium AA Stable 14 BBBBulgaria BBB Stable 46 BB-Czech Republic AA- Stable 36 BBBDenmark AAA Stable 9 BBBEstonia AA- Positive 55 A-Finland AA+ Stable 14 A- BBB-France AA Stable 18 A BBGermany AAA Stable 11 A+ BBGreece BB- Stable 148 BIceland A Stable BBB+Ireland AA- Stable 23 BBB BBB-Italy BBB Negative 133 BBB BB+Jersey AA- Stable B+Latvia A+ Stable 65 BBB-Liechtenstein AAA Stable AAALithuania A+ Stable 67 BBB+Montserrat BBB- StableNetherlands AAA Stable 12 A- B+Norway AAA Stable 12 BBB BBB+Poland A- Stable 60 BBB+ BBBPortugal BBB Stable 50 BBB-Romania BBB- Negative 132 BB-Slovenia AA- Stable 72 BBB+Spain A Stable 54 BBB+ BB-Sweden AAA Stable 11 A BBBSwitzerland AAA Stable 7 A BBBUnited Kingdom AA Stable 20 A- B+



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Ratings Actions and DefaultsSummary



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Ratings Action| Weakest Links and Default Rates

27

– Weakest Links. Europe has seen weakest links doubled to 96 issuers (18% of the speculative-grade rated population) from the start of the year. Weakest Links are issuers rated ‘B-’ and below with a negative outlook or on CreditWatch with negative implications; they typically have a default rate eight times that of speculative-grade issuers more broadly.

– For more information, see The Still-High Weakest Links Tally Contracts As Defaults Rise published Aug. 19, 2020.

Default Rates as of July 2020. Weakest links and speculative-grade data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

Europe’s Weakest Links rise near record highs, pointing to higher likely default rates in the near term

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Weakest Links Counts (Left)

Weakest Links Share Of Speculative-Grade Population (Right)

Europe 12 Month Trailing Speculative -Grade Default Rate (Right)

https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=45718329&From=SNP_CRS



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28

* Default tally data as of Sep. 16, 2020. Default Rates as of July 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®

Ratings Action| Corporate Defaults By Reason & Default Rate Trend

– Rising Default Rates European defaults total 26 so far this year with an estimated default rate at 3.8%. This tally is triple the level seen at this point in 2019.

– For more information, see Global Corporate Defaults Pick Up After Slowing In August published Sept. 11, 2020.

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Missed principal/interest payments Bankruptcy-Related

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Confidential

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Default Tally (Left)

Europe 12 Month Trailing Speculative -Grade Default Rate (Right)

https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=45905022&From=SNP_CRS



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29

Ratings Transitions | Transitions Rates

Rating BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC/C DBBB- 73.27 11.88 1.98 0 0 0 0 0 0BB+ 6.58 63.16 10.53 3.95 1.32 0 0 0 0BB 0 1.52 62.12 15.15 0 3.03 1.52 3.03 0BB- 0 0 1.43 61.43 15.71 7.14 1.43 4.29 0B+ 0 0 0 0.99 51.49 18.81 9.9 6.93 0.99B 0 0 0 0 0 54.26 22.48 11.24 0.39B- 0 0 0 0 0 5.81 47.67 27.91 8.14CCC/C 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.03 27.27 48.48

Rating BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC/C DBBB- 68.68 6.05 1.95 0.4 0.13 0.27 0 0.2 0.13BB+ 12.8 60.71 9.16 2.76 1.1 0.33 0.11 0.22 0BB 1.53 11.64 60.88 7.15 2.35 0.61 0.1 0.61 0.2BB- 0.42 1.15 11.48 57.52 11.69 3.03 0.63 0.1 0.73B+ 0.16 0.7 2.33 9.64 56.45 11.98 2.26 1.4 0.86B 0.12 0.12 0.18 1.33 6.94 61.62 8.81 2.96 1.69B- 0 0 0 0.6 1.2 10.54 52.56 14.16 5.57CCC/C 0 0 0 0 0.28 1.69 10.96 41.29 26.4

Transition Rates as of July 2020. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®

One Year Transitions April 2019 to April 2020

One Year Transitions Since 1981

– Stability. Issuers rated ‘B+’ and below were less stable over the year until April compared to the historical average. The major part of movements is to a lower rating. This reflects the vulnerability in European credit markets, mostly on the back of the economic impact of COVID-19.

– Defaults are higher in the ‘CCC/C’ categories when compared to historical averages.



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Ratings Additional Details



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Issuance| Sovereign Top 20 Deals In 2020 By Debt Amount

31

YTD data as of Aug. 31, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Issuer Country Market PlaceS&P Issue-Rating

S&P Sovereign Rating (as of June 16, 2020) Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil.)

5/21/2020 Republic of Italy ItalyEuro market public issue NR BBB 5 EUR $24,372.96

5/15/2020 Republic of Italy Italy Euro Public BBB BBB 4 EUR $24,114.90

4/22/2020 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A- 4 EUR $16,298.15

4/22/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A NR A- 5 EUR $16,144.70

6/3/2020 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A BBB BBB 1 EUR $15,649.30

5/12/2020United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland U.K.

Domestic government debt NR AA 1 GBP $14,885.57

6/9/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A A A- 1 EUR $13,484.20

6/9/2020United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland U.K.

Domestic government debt NR AA 1 GBP $11,404.68

1/14/2020 Kingdom of Spain SpainEuro market public issue NR A- 1 EUR $11,129.04

1/14/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A NR A- 1 EUR $11,099.30


4/20/2020 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A NR BBB 4 EUR $10,825.40

3/24/2020 Kingdom of Spain Spain EURO/144A A A- 4 EUR $10,755.00

7/21/2020Federal Republic of Germany Germany Domestic auction NR AAA 3 EUR $9,908.57


2/11/2020 Republic of Italy Italy EURO/144A NR BBB 1 EUR $9,774.80


3/31/2020 Kingdom of Belgium Belgium EURO/144A AA AA 2 EUR $8,831.80





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Issuance| Financial and Non-Financial Top 20 Deals

32

YTD data as of Aug. 31, 2020; excludes Sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table is for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Issuer CountryMarket Place

S&P Issue-Rating

S&P Sovereign Rating (as of Aug. 31, 2020) Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil.)

5/26/2020 Total Capital International France U.S. Public A+ AA 3.127% Gtd Global Nts due '50 US $2,500.00

3/25/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A AA 4.950% Global Notes due '30 US $2,496.88

4/1/2020Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA/NV Belgium U.S. Public A- AA 4.500% Gtd Global Nts due '50 US $2,248.29

1/30/2020 Credit Suisse AG Switzerland U.S. Public A+ AAA Sr Unsecurd Nts due '22 US $2,000.00

8/11/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A- AA Global Notes due '26 US $2,000.00

5/28/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A- AA Sr Unsecurd Nts due '26 US $2,000.00

7/9/2020 Intl Fin Corp LtdUnited Kingdom U.S. Public AAA AA 0.375% Medium-Term Nts due '25 US $1,996.48

4/30/2020 Barclays PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public BBB AA Sr Unsecurd Nts due '26 US $1,750.00

5/5/2020 Barclays PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public BBB AA 1.700% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '22 US $1,748.57

4/1/2020Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA/NV Belgium U.S. Public A- AA 3.500% Gtd Global Nts due '30 US $1,746.33

5/27/2020Petrobras Global Finance BV Netherlands U.S. Public NR AAA 6.750% Gtd Global Nts due '50 US $1,716.93

5/28/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A- AA Sr Unsecurd Nts due '31 US $1,500.00

4/2/2020 Lloyds Banking Group PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public BBB+ AA Global Notes due '25 US $1,500.00

8/11/2020 HSBC Holdings PLCUnited Kingdom U.S. Public A- AA Global Notes due '31 US $1,500.00

6/2/2020 Credit Suisse Grp Ag Switzerland U.S. Public BBB+ AAA Senior Notes due '26 US $1,500.00

4/6/2020 Credit Suisse Ag Switzerland U.S. Public A+ AAA 2.800% Global MTNs due '22 US $1,499.94

5/27/2020Petrobras Global Finance BV Netherlands U.S. Public NR AAA 5.600% Gtd Global Nts due '31 US $1,499.90

4/6/2020 Credit Suisse Ag Switzerland U.S. Public A+ AAA 2.950% Global MTNs due '25 US $1,497.44

4/1/2020Shell International Finance BV

United Kingdom U.S. Public NR AA 2.375% Guaranteed Nts due '25 US $1,496.70

5/20/2020 Banco Santander SA Spain U.S. Public A A- 2.746% Global Notes due '25 US $1,495.50



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Ratings Action| Top 20 By Debt Amount (YTD)

33

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020, exclude Sovereign, and includes only latest rating changes. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Rating Date Issuer Country Sector Rating ToRating From Action Type

Debt Amount (US $ Mil)

5/13/2020 Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A./N.V. Belgium Consumer Products BBB+ A- Downgrade $155,580

5/13/2020 HSBC Holdings PLC United Kingdom Bank A- A Downgrade $142,417

6/22/2020 Electricite de France S.A. France Utility BBB+ A- Downgrade $79,550

4/1/2020 Deutsche Telekom AG Germany Telecommunications BBB BBB+ Downgrade $78,354

3/26/2020 Daimler AG Germany Automotive BBB+ A- Downgrade $72,125

3/26/2020 BMW AG Germany Automotive A A+ Downgrade $65,114

4/24/2020 ENGIE SA France Utility BBB+ A- Downgrade $35,276

4/7/2020 GlaxoSmithKline PLC United Kingdom Health Care A A+ Downgrade $31,395

3/27/2020 Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE France Homebuilders/Real Estate Co. A- A Downgrade $30,649

8/17/2020

Landeskreditbank Baden-Wuerttemberg - Foerderbank - (L-Bank) Germany Bank AA+ AAA Downgrade $30,569

4/23/2020 Commerzbank AG Germany Bank BBB+ A- Downgrade $27,742

6/11/2020 Deutsche Bahn AG Germany Utility AA- AA Upgrade $26,834

4/9/2020 Renault S.A. France Automotive BB+ BBB- Downgrade $24,979

1/13/2020 Atlantia SpA Italy Utility BB- BBB- Upgrade $16,297

3/26/2020 Swedbank AB Sweden Bank A+ AA- Downgrade $14,190

1/13/2020 Abertis Infraestructuras S.A. Spain Utility BBB- BBB Downgrade $14,175

5/1/2020 EG Group Ltd. United Kingdom Consumer Products B- B Downgrade $10,443

8/6/2020 Mallinckrodt plc Ireland Health Care CCC- CCC Downgrade $10,224

8/6/2020 Transocean Ltd. Switzerland Oil & Gas Exploration & Production SD CCC Downgrade $9,946

4/20/2020 Transocean Ltd. Switzerland Oil & Gas Exploration & Production CCC CCC+ Downgrade $9,946



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Maturing Debt | Europe Financial and Non-Financial Top 25 Deals Set To Mature Through August 2020

34

Data as of Aug. 31, 2020 and excludes Sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table does not include China deals and data is for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Maturity Date Issuer Country Sector Market Place

S&P Issue -Rating Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Million)

8/17/2010 8/24/2020 Royal Bank of Scotland (Bond)United Kingdom Banks U.S. Public A+ 5.625% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US $1,499.21

9/28/2010 10/1/2020 BP Capital Markets PlcUnited Kingdom Integrated Oil & Gas U.S. Public A 4.500% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US $1,491.77

9/9/2015 9/17/2020 Nordea AB Sweden Banks U.S. Private AA- 2.500% Sr Med Term Nts due '20 US $1,247.03

9/6/2005 9/16/2020 ING Verzekeringen NV Netherlands Banks U.S. Public AA- 3.500% Global Notes due '20 EUR $1,243.10

10/16/2015 10/30/2020 AerCap Ireland Capital Ltd Netherlands Broker U.S. Public BB+ 4.625% Gr Global Bonds due '20 US $1,000.00

7/11/2017 9/18/2020 Kuntarahoitus Oyj Finland Broker U.S. Private NR 1.875% Global MTNs due '20 US $999.92

8/10/2015 8/17/2020 Lloyds Bank PLCUnited Kingdom Banks U.S. Public A 2.700% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US $999.44

8/30/2017 9/8/2020 Svenska Handelsbanken AB Sweden Banks U.S. Public AA- 1.950% Gtd Sr Unsec Nt due '20 US $998.99

10/13/2015 10/16/2020 Santander Uk Grp Hldg PLCUnited Kingdom Broker U.S. Public BBB 2.875% Global Notes due '20 US $998.43

8/17/2015 8/20/2020 Deutsche Bank AG Germany Banks U.S. Public BBB+ 2.950% Global MTNs due '20 US $998.29

9/10/2015 9/17/2020 Danske Bank A/S Denmark Banks Foreign Public A 2.750% Senior Notes due '20 US $997.96

10/13/2015 10/20/2020 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Spain Banks U.S. Public BBB+ 3.000% Global Notes due '20 US $995.58

10/14/2015 10/21/2020 OeKB Austria Broker U.S. Public AA+ 1.500% Gtd Global Nts due '20 US $994.31

10/10/2017 10/19/2020 National Bank of Greece SA Greece Banks Euro Public NR 2.750% Secured Bonds due '20 EUR $882.00

9/16/2010 9/15/2020Weatherford International PLC Switzerland Integrated Oil & Gas U.S. Public BBB 5.125% Global Notes due '20 US $798.90

8/29/2017 8/29/2020 Daimler AG Germany Automotive Foreign Private NR 5.120% Medium-Term Nts due '20 CY $758.21

9/9/2015 9/16/2020 Societe Generale SA France Banks U.S. Private A 2.625% Sr Med Term Nts due '20 US $746.72

9/19/2017 9/26/2020 Eastern Creation II Investment

British Virgin Islands(United Kingdom) Finance Company Euro Public NR 2.750% Gtd Sr Unsec Nt due '20 US $699.22

10/8/2015 10/15/2020 Banque Federative Du Credit France Banks Foreign Public A 0.494% Fxd/Straight Bd due '20 Y $691.47

10/17/2018 10/17/2020 Eurobank Ergasias SA Greece Banks Euro Public NR Senior Notes due '20 EUR $574.95

3/18/2011 9/25/2020 Emporiki Group Finance Ltd Greece Finance Company Euro Public NR Flt Rte Gtd MTN due '20 EUR $567.30

9/11/2015 9/18/2020 Brait SE Malta Broker Euro Public NR 2.750% Cvt Snr Bonds due '20 STG $539.98

3/12/2018 9/15/2020 Coca-Cola Eurpn Partnrs PLCUnited Kingdom Consumer Products U.S. Public NR 3.500% Gr Global Bonds due '20 US $525.00

8/30/2017 9/8/2020 Svenska Handelsbanken AB Sweden Banks U.S. Public AA- Gtd Sr Unsec Nt due '20 US $500.00

9/21/2015 9/28/2020 AP Moller-Maersk A/S Denmark Transportation Foreign Public BBB+ 2.875% Senior Notes due '20 US $499.59



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Related Research

– COVID-19- And Oil Price-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations, Sovereigns, And Project Finance To Date, Sep. 29, 2020

– Credit Conditions Europe: Ill-Prepared For Winter , Sep. 29, 2020

– 'BBB' Pulse: Potential Fallen Angels Remain Stable In August, With Five Outlook Revisions To Stable And Just One Downgrade , Sep. 28, 2020

– Oil And Gas Defaults Continue To Climb, Sep. 25, 2020

– €4 Trillion Of Rated European Corporate Debt Is Scheduled To Mature Through 2025, published Sep. 3, 2020

– The Still-High Weakest Links Tally Contracts As Defaults Rise, Aug. 18, 2020

– Global Refinancing--Rated Corporate Debt Due Through 2025 Nears $12 Trillion, July 27, 2020

– Global Financing Conditions: Bond Issuance Is Expected To Finish 2020 Up 6% After A Strong Second Quarter, July 27, 2020

– Global Corporate Debt Market: State Of Play In 2020, June 25, 2020

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europe credit markets update –3q 2020– spreads remain persistently higher than pre-covid levels,...

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