europe august 2014 weatheraction superb hail & thunder · 2014. 9. 14. · european forecast noted...

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EUROPE AUGUST 2014 Extreme contrasts and rapid changes - Detailed maps pages 2-9

N/W parts mostly dry & very warm/hot with major heatwaves on airstreams from Africa. Contrasting frequent rain with thunderfloods, tornadoes, and hail, in SE Europe & Balkans. Main heat: Spain, France, Low countries and sometimes parts of

Scandinavia. Temperature records are likely to be neared or broken. Major contrasts in Central parts with alternating hot and cool

sometimes very wet blasts. Main Unsettled / Active, Thunder / tornado risk in parts (R4, R5) periods:

1-2 (R5); 5-6 & 7-8 (R5 pair); 18-19 (R5); 20-22 (R4); 25-26 (R4); 27-29 (R5). Clear Mini-Ice-Age (Wild-Jet-Stream) circulation:- Jet Stream generally

South / blocked with huge meanders and long fetches. Notable contrast in activity & mobility with rapid transition from tight isobars to slack periods.

Main Pressure pattern is a Blocking Euro High – often in Long stretches Azores-Britain-Scand (eg 1-10th) and an active Low ~SE Eu through the month Increased mobility 11-15 sees Low in Scandinavia and High long ridge pushed south

and sandwiched from Azores +S Brit to East Eu/Russia. 16-22 High pressure generaslly re-establishes 23-31 Eu high weakens under attack at times and Low attacks finally start to

penetrate more fully around 30/31st Aug The changes in circulation giving these often extreme weather patterns will be driven by changes in the Solar-Lunar factors which govern the behaviour of the Jet stream and are predictable by WeatherAction’s revolutionary Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT10) months ahead and nothing to do with CO2 changes - the ‘CO2-Climate Change’ ‘theory’ - which is politically driven and delusional. The wild extremes are consequences of the Wild Jet Stream / ‘Mini Ice Age (ie on average significantly colder) Climate decades the world has entered. Standard Meteorology will run into serious problems this month in SLAT main Red (R4 & R5) periods during which short range standard Meteorology forecasts for precipitation will generally need to be doubled and strong wind / tornado / thunder / hail risk enhanced.

EUROPE Regional Weathermaps Forecast AUGUST 2014 SLAT10 Produced 30th July from choices made mid-July. www.weatheraction.com +442079399946; @Piers_Corbyn

WeatherAction superb Hail & thunder hits July 1-5 France & Switzerland.

Pic is of http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No28.pdf

ALL HAIL THE MINI ICE AGE! These events and many more intense damaging hail hits across Europe (and USA) confirm Piers Corbyns’ warning at the GAFTA* conference in Geneva in May 2013 that Mini-Ice-Age type extreme hail events would increase in coming years. * http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No43.pdf slides 35 & 52 See http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/09/all-hail-the-mini-ice-age/ for Craig’s collected excellent reports and links on hail events Europe and world through 1-5/6th July and more.

2014 AUGUST (3-30d) ahead fc Europe detail SLAT10 produced 30th July from choices made mid-July. General reportage welcome but any publication of details in media or web must be agreed through www.weatheraction.com

Confidential. © Weather Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 1st – 4th August Confidence: BC = 70% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 1-4th AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: R5 1-2, Q 3RD, R2 4TH Thunder Risk: High start then mod/low Jet Stream: Blocked Key Development: Very unsettled start (cyclonic Ireland) then high pressure rapidly develops ~ 3-4th over most of Britain + Ireland– connected to Azores High and Scandinavia-Siberia High. Low pressure Greenland and Low band Gibraltar–Central Med–Black Sea. High pressure forces low to retreat westward (BI). Lows (N) Black Sea & Greece/Turkey Main Uncertainties: Speed of retreat of Atlantic low westward.

For Brit & Ireland see B&I Separate Forecast

WeatherAction welcomes Feedback on Euro Forecasts

and Their Application: www.WeatherAction.com

Comments Blog

Dry, hot, variable sky at first sunny

later.

Major thunderstorms + thunderfloods,

giant hail, tornadoes in parts; less active later, variable skies.

Dry, hot, sunny (high cloud at first

then clearer).

Dry, hot, mostly sunny.

Dry, very warm, variable sky then mostly

sunny.

Intense isolated thunderstorms

decreasing variable sky, sunnier later.

Heatwave

Heatwave

Heatwave

Heatwave

cc

2014 AUGUST (3-30d) ahead fc Europe detail SLAT10 produced 30th July from choices made mid-July.

General reportage welcome but any publication of details in media or web must be agreed through www.weatheraction.com Confidential. © Weather

Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 5th – 8th August Confidence: BC = 70% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 5-8th AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: R5 pair: R5 5-6 and R5 7-8 (cut-off high). Thunder Risk: Very high Jet Stream: Huge meanders/blocked Key Development: Active lows Iceland and Greece/Turkey/Black Sea and a long band of High pressure from Azores through Britain to East Scandinavia/West Siberia. Heat low South Spain. Large active Low Greece + Balkans + Black Sea + Turkey Main Uncertainties: How the long band of High pressure moves near Britain & Ireland.




Comments Blog

Heavy thunderstorms + hail, cool

Dry, very warm, variable sky some intense isolated thunderstorms +

tornadoes + giant hail

Dry, very hot, sunny but high

cloud

Intense thunderfloods, giant

hail, dangerous lightning.

Torrnadoes 90% likely in parts.

Dry, very warm/hot. High

cloud. Heatwave.

Heavy thundery showers + tornadoes + giant hail, becoming

mostly cloudy



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 9th – 10th August Confidence: C = 65% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 9-10th AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: NSF/Q 9-10 Thunder Risk: LOW Jet Stream: Huge fetches and buckling Key Development: Generally slack High Pressure over BI shifts somewhat SW and High strengthens over Scandinavia. Greenland low. Low band Gibraltar – Greece - Black Sea - Russia but shallower. Uncertainties (C confidence) (BI): Atlantic Lows could advance further inland even though slack (with fronts over N Scotland). Large area Low pressure Greece + Turkey + Black Sea. Main Uncertainties: Activity level of Atlantic and Greek Lows.




Comments Blog

Dry, sunny, veery

warm/hot, variable sky

Dry, hot, sunny, blue sky, great weather,

heatwave.

Thundery showers,

mostly cloudy, humid.

A few thundery showers/isolated thunderstorms,

variable sky.

Dry, hot, wall to wall blue sky +

sunny.

Dry, very warm, mostly sunny.



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 11th – 15th August Confidence: B = 75% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 11–15th AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: R3 11-13, NSF/Q 14-15 Thunder Risk: Mod/Low Jet Stream: Blocked/large meanders. Key Development: High pressure centered SW of Britain + Ireland (probably less High pressure in Azores). Quite deep low (for time of year) develops over West Scandinavia and shifts South/SE. Low pressure Greenland. High West Siberia. Low band Gibraltar-Greece (especially) -Black Sea - S. Russia. Main Uncertainties: Activity of Scand Low.




Comments Blog

Thundery showers some

heavy hail, local flash floods,

less later.

Heavy thundery showers,

cool, cloudy

Dry, very hot, sunny

Dry, hot, sunny

Mostly dry, shower risk at

first with variable sky then mostly

sunny.

Some showers,

cloudy then variable sky,

coolish.

Dry, variable sky then

fine + sunny +

warm



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 16th –22nd August Confidence: B = 75% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 16-22nd AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: NSF/Q 16-17; R5 18-19; R4 20-22 Thunder Risk: V high 18-22 Jet Stream: Major meanders. Key Development: High pressure band SW-NE over Brit + Ire splits * under attack from deepening low just West/SW of Ireland. Major High central N Sea/S Scand. Greenland low. Europe pressure shift. Low Gibraltar. High West + Centre Med (linked to N Sea/Scand high), Low Greece Turkey. (*E/W divide of rain in Ireland uncertain). Main Uncertainties: Position of Low SE Europe




Comments Blog

Showery + cooler

Dry, hot, humid, high cloud, threat of

thunder + isolated intense thunder +

tornado risk.

Major intense thunderstorms (mostly later)

develop. Giant hail, tornadoes

very likely.

Mostly dry, some

thunderstorms, high cloud

(thunder later).

Dry, very hot, isolated intense thunderstorms +

hail + tornado developments. High

cloud.



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 23rd – 24th August Confidence: B = 75% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 23-24th AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: Q 23-24 Thunder Risk: Low Jet Stream: Large meanders/blocked. Key Development: High pressure persists over East Britain as Low pressure to West of Ire fills. Westward moving situation. Slack. Winds light. Major Highs East Baltic + West Siberia. Azores high normal. Low pressure East Med + Black Sea/Ukraine + Balkans. Main Uncertainties: Penetration East of BI Low.




Comments Blog

Dry, sunny, blue skies,

hot.

Dry, sunny, hot (very hot East Spain).

Thundery showers,

humid, coolish, cloudy.

Warm, humid, some thundery showers, variable sky.

Dry, very warm, mostly sunny.



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 25th – 29h August Confidence: A = 85% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 25-29h August 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: R4 25-26; R5 27-29 Thunder Risk: V high. Jet Stream: Large meanders/blocked. Key Development: Very deep (for time of year) powerful low pressure attacks Ireland & Britain from the West and attempts to cross North Britain. High pressure Greenland, Azores + Baltic/Baltic States. West Med high pressure. E Med and Black Sea Lows. More mobile than pervious periods. Low Ukraine. High Siberia + NW Russia. Main Uncertainties: Penetration S/E of Iceland/North BI Low.




Comments Blog

Isolated intense thunderstorms especially later,

high cloud (more later), tornado

risk.

Dry, mostly fine,

warm/hot, high cloud.

Mostly dry, isolated intense

thunderstorms, large hail, tornado risk.

Dry, hot, sunny with high cloud

espec later. Dry, variable sky

(more cloud later), warm, humid later.

Major thunderfloods +

giant hail, tornadoes likely,

cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms,

variable sky,

Major thunderfloods, giant hail; tornadoes

likely.

Major thunderfloods +

giant hail, tornadoes likely,

cloudy.



Action (+44/0)2079399946

European Forecast Noted Areas Map SLAT 10 AUGUST 2014 for: 30th - 31st August Confidence: B = 75% Prod 30th July from choices made mid-July. Timing to 1 day. Likely success rate of weather periods is 8 or 9 basically successful out of every 10


Key Weather Development Notes: 30th - 31st AUGUST 2014 Solar-Lunar Factors: NSF/Q 30-31st Thunder Risk: Low Jet Stream: South of normal, less meanders. Key Development: More mobile to North, Scand high block ends. Cyclonic low over Britain tracks NE and fills. Pressure builds South Eire + SW England. Azores High extends to France and West Med and South Ireland/England. Low Greenland, Low SE Europe. Heat low S Spain/Gibraltar. Low N Italy/Balkans, Low Russia (NE Ukraine). Main Uncertainties: Activity of Balkan/Italy Low.




Comments Blog

Heavy showers, some thundery, breezy, cloudy,

cool. Dry, very

warm, mostly sunny/some

cloud.

Dry, warm, sunny.

Thundery showers, large hail, threat of

tornadoes.

Some showers, coolish, variable

sky.

Dry, hot, sunny.

Thundery showers,

very humid, cloudy.

Dry, sunny,

very warm/hot.

Thundery showers,

cooler

europe august 2014 weatheraction superb hail & thunder · 2014. 9. 14. · european forecast noted...

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