eucos

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EUCOS

TECO-2008 - WMO Technical Conference on

Meteorological and Environmental Instruments and Methods of Observation

St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, 27-29 November 2008

Stefan Klink, Jochen Dibbern and Tanja Kleinert

EUCOS Team

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Further development of the EUMETNET Composite Observing System

TECO 2008 St. Petersburg,Russian Federation, 27-29 Nov 2008

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Content• About EUMETNET and EUCOS• EUCOS objectives• The current EUCOS network• Studies Programme

• Space-Terrestrial study and recommendations derived from it

• EUCOS upper-air network redesign• PREVIEW Data Targeting System

• Future plans


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About EUMETNET and EUCOS (1)


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EUCOS OPERATIONAL PROGRAMME

E-AMDAR

E-ASAP(including OWS „M“ and Ekofisk“)

E-SURFMAR(surface marine buoys and VOS)

WINPROF

Territorial Segment(upper air and RBSN stations)

Operations Monitoring

Studies Programme

Possible FutureProgrammes

Observation Targeting

Programme Components

Fully integrated programmes

Integration in 2008

Collaborative components

Managed byEUCOS team

Evolving needs

About EUMETNET and EUCOS (2)


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EUCOS Information System ( www.eucos.net )

http://www.eucos.net/


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EUCOS objectives (1)

EUCOS: EUCOS: Serving the Regional Scale NWP Serving the Regional Scale NWP

requirement for observations over the requirement for observations over the European regionEuropean region

EUCOS: EUCOS: Serving the Regional Scale NWP Serving the Regional Scale NWP

requirement for observations over the requirement for observations over the European regionEuropean region

Contributes to

Medium and extended range weather prediction over the Globe

Provides a framework for

Very short range and nowcasting over national territories

Climate,Climate prediction

Warnings and Info Services


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EUCOS objectives (2)

• Design and coordinate the evolution of the ground based EUMETNET composite observing system (EUCOS) to be optimized at European scale with a view to improve short range forecast over Europe without increasing the overall cost

• Monitor and control EUCOS performance

• Ensure integrated management for agreed components such as E-ASAP, E-AMDAR, E-SURFMAR (and WINPROF)

• Support the evolution of EUCOS through a studies programme


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EUCOS objectives (3)EUCOS area (10N-90N, 70W-40E)


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The current EUCOS network (1)

• All European ships of the Automated Ship Aerological Programme ASAP(10 E-ASAP integrated, 5 national)

• All measurements from European commercial aircraft (AMDAR)

• Ocean weather ship „M“ and Ekofisk oil platform

• Selected moored buoys and all European drifting buoys

• European Voluntary Observing Ships

• Selected European radiosonde stations

• Selected European synoptic weather stations


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The current EUCOS network (2)E-ASAP:

RS ascents

on a 2° x 2° grid

during 2007


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The current EUCOS network (3)

E-AMDAR Network Performance - Jan 2000 to Dec 2007.

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E-AMDAR:


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The current EUCOS network (4)EGOS then EUCOS drifting buoys - Data availabilityAverage number of hourly observations per day

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E-SURFMAR: EGOS then EUCOS drifting buoys,

average number of hourly observations per day


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EUCOS network performance 2007Timeliness Achieving Achieving Individual targets

HH+50 * 100 hPa 50 hPa subprograms

Target: 95% Target: 90% Target: 95% 93% 97% 100%

Target: 95% Target: 50% Target: 95% Target: 97% Target: 95% 91% 72% 90% 97% 89%

Target: 50% Target: 95% Target: 90% Target: 75% Loss rate

Target: max. 20% 65% 84% 82% 75% 23%

Ocean platforms Target: 95% Target: 50% Target: 95% Target: 95% Target: 90% Average 91% 93% 95% 96% 89%

OWS M 96% 96% 98% 99% 95%Ekofisk 86% 89% 91% 93% 83%

Annual target: Target: 90% Target: 95% Profile distribution

12 Mio. obs HH+60: 95% 97% daily profiles

12,750,000 HH+50: 94% Target: 760

753

daily airports obs.

Target: 130112



VOS ships Target: 95% Target: 90% Target: 95% Average 32% 85% 95%

Conventional (4 obs per day) 17% 79% 94%Automated (24 obs per day) 46% 90% 96%

target achieved

<10% below target

=>10% below target

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ASAP units---

E-AMDAR

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Moored buoys--- ---

Drifting buoys--- ---

Radiosonde stations

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*: Upper-air data HH+60 and HH+120 January till June 2007, AMDAR data timeliness HH+50 average August till December 2007

2007 Network Data availability

Timeliness HH+100*

Surface stations

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Studies ProgrammeImpact Studies as a measure to guideline the evolution of EUCOS

(External) drivers and developments:• Different observation networks evolve differently (e.g. regarding

availability, accuracy, cost, ...)• Data assimilation algorithms improve and can make use of more data

EUCOS objective:• Design and coordinate the evolution of the ground based EUCOS to be

optimized at European scale with a view to improve short range forecast ...→ A modification of the meteorological observing network might become

necessary

EUCOS needs approval for network changes or modifications from PB-OBS and EUMETNET Council respectively

In order to get the 24 Members convinced of such changes it was decided to base them on scientific analyses (e.g. impact studies)


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Space-Terrestrial Study and recommendations derived from it (1) • Motivation: need to better understand the relative contribution of satellite

and ground-based observations so that the total system may be progressively optimised

• five European NWP centres agreed running “Observation System Experiments” (OSE), thereby relying on common scenarios, time periods and verification procedures

• The following scenarios were defined:• Baseline: all current satellite observations used in NWP + GUAN

radiosonde network + hourly GSN surface land data + hourly buoys (no ship data)

• Control: full combined observing system• And different additions to the Baseline (radiosondes, wind profiler,

aircraft measurements).


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• Compared to Baseline all additional ground based observing systems have a positive impact on the forecast skill. On top of the additional available satellite data further improvements of the ground based observing system are important.

• The radiosonde network is still the most important component of the ground based upper-air observing network.

• The impact of aircraft measurements is significant and second largest ...

• AMDAR humidity is seen as a high priority project.• ...

The studies lead to a list of general conclusions, compiled at the 2007 E-SAT meeting (complete list can be found in the proceedings):

Space-Terrestrial Study and recommendations derived from it (2)


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EUCOS upper-air network redesign (1)Motivation:

• Significant evolution of the European AMDAR network

• Members were not able to install the proposed EUCOS radiosonde network design with 4 ascents per day at most of the sites

• Results from the Space Terrestrial Studies are available with recommendations for the network design


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EUCOS upper-air network redesign (2)Proposed OSE scenarios:

no scenario description

# EUMETNET radiosondes

# airports

non GUAN

total

1 BASELINE 0 13 0

2 BASELINE + all available data in EUCOS area 80 93 58

3aBASELINE + 100km spaced (RS + airports), thereby excluding RS close to airports

50 63 58

3bAs 3a but keeping 0 UTC RS ascents at those sites which have been excluded in 3a

5080

6393

5858

4 BASELINE + 250km spaced (RS + airports) 33 46 40

5 BASELINE + 500km spaced (RS +airports) 10 23 ~ 20


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PREVIEW Data Targeting System• Aim of data targeting: make additional observations when and where they

will be most beneficial to subsequent forecasts• A pre-operational Data Targeting System (DTS) has been developed to

assess the feasibility of operational adaptive control of the observing system

• 50% / 50% funding from EUCOS and EC • 505 high impact cases were proposed and 446 accepted by the lead user• During 11 months trial period 87% of requested radiosonde ascents from

land stations had been deployed• DTS is described in the latest issue of the “ECMWF newsletter”


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Future plans

• Complete integration of WINPROF into EUCOS• Quality Monitoring Portal will be further developed to include a

monitoring of WINPROF observing systems and to deliver comparisons of observations with the ECMWF model

• upper-air network redesign OSEs will be conducted• Addition of humidity measurements to E-AMDAR observations• Evaluation of the EUCOS/PREVIEW Data Targeting System Trial Phase

by running data denial studies


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Questions and Comments?

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eucos

Documents

system eucos

eucos area

ethe current eucos network

ground based eucos

day eucos network performance

eucos information system

european scale

network changes