EU-RU COMPETITION and/or COOPERATION – 7

DILEMMASby

Pál TAMÁS [IS HAS, Budapest]

1. Partial dissolution of a continental Empire

1.Historical patterns of continental imperial collapses of the early 20. century [Ottoman Empire, the Habsburgs, inperial Germany]. Paths of total disolution, disintegration.

2. The Soviet collaps is different. Semi-disintegration: reduction from global power to regional power + survival of imperial elites

MUTUAL CONFUSION both of the Western and Russian elites.

Dominant strategies: trial and error without any valid theories

2. Political control of the Black-Baltic Sea division line

The only physico-geographical „vertical” division line in Europe- the Black-Baltic Sea area. Who should control it? From the end of 18-beginning of the 19.century until the late 1980ies only Russia, but before that time not [Crimea, the Hansa, Sweden, Poland and only partly „Moscovia-Russia.

And adter 1989-91? Why should it be controled fully by anybody– new cooperative regimes.

3. EU as a cosmopolitan Empire

The EU is an cosmopolitanEmpire, but without self-reflection.

The basic difference between national states and empires- the boundary regimes [stabil/liquid].

In the empire: disappearence of the internal/external [EU enlargement philosophies]

4.post-trauma syndroms among the Russian elites

Percepcion of geopolitical nakedness [previous techniques of security building of a state without „natural boundaries” [big rivers, major mountains].

Who should know pay the bill for this new feelings of insecurity? The answer depends on actual and coming EU[US]-RU power [a]symmetries. Psychosocial sensitivities should be handled via special agreements, programs of complementarities, etc.

5. RU-regional power, upgrated by US generated

global conflictsThe special role of the US in

geopolitical upgrading the of the Russian oil and gas reserves with its Middle Eastern politics.

Iran as a special subject for exchange of influence. Russia will sell them to the West- this is out of question. But when and for what price? Ukraine? The Caucasus? Growing independence of political players in the buffer zones.

6. EU-RU: different projections of interests

1990ies EU RU US-Canada model additional legitimation of the nem democracy2000ies economic interests alternative

West[instead short-middle term of the US, but not the Master

7. „Ostpolitik” in the EU: the German and the Polish/Baltic

scenarios German strategy: additional power resource

in the 20.century [Rapallo, Ribbentrop-Molotov, Brandt’s Ostpolitik]

Polish/Baltic historical memory- confrontative overreaction with delay

THE HUNGARIAN DILEMMAS a. the scope of HU’s autonomy in this questions? b. possibilities of long-term equal distance to Moscow and Kijev ? c. special relationship with RU in principle possible, but sacrifing the Visegrad foreign policy co-operation. Is that a good price?