eu exports to the world:effects on employmentand income
TRANSCRIPT
EU Exports to the World:Effects on Employment
and Income
CEPS1 June 2015
Ilaria MaselliCentre for European Policy Studies
(CEPS)
Trade and the labour market
18,620
22,345
24,151
26,560
29,760
31,163
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011
% o
f to
tal jo
bs
1,0
00
EU empl supported by exp of MS to RoW
Trade & jobs according to economists
83% of American
economists believe
trade deals benefited
most citizens
Initiative on Global Markets, 2015
Question: Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans
…and trade & jobs according to the public opinion..
65% 64%
59%57%
54%
50%48% 47% 46%
44%42% 41% 40% 40% 39%
37% 36%33% 33% 32% 32%
29% 28% 27% 27%25% 24%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
FR EL LT BE HU CZ IT AT SL PT EU HT LX FI SK UK DE ES RO PL BG IE ET SE LV MT NL DK
Globalisation represents a threat to employment and companies in our country
(may 2012)
Eurobarometer, May 2012
Why such discrepancy? (I)
•The main factors that shape views of trade are education and local labor market conditions
(Brown et al. 2010)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5 10 15 20 25 30 35Glo
balisati
on
repre
sen
ts t
hre
at
to
em
plo
ym
en
t an
d c
om
pan
ies (
%)
EU employment supported by exp of each MS to the RoW (% of total empl)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Glo
balisati
on
repre
sen
ts a
good
opport
un
ity (
%)
EU employment supported by exp of each MS to the RoW (% of total empl)
Why such discrepancy? (II)
Offshoring for the purposes of cost cutting is associated with job losses at home. (Harrison et al. 2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Jobs c
reate
d in
MS
as %
of
tota
l em
pl in
MS
Jobs created in RoW as % of total empl in the MS
Average is over
•Policy-makers cannot simply ignore the distribution of gains and losses any longer
References
• Harrison, Ann, Margaret McMillan and Clair Null. 2007. "U.S. Multinational Activity Abroad and U.S. Jobs: Substitutes or Complements?" Industrial Relations 47: 347-365.
• Brown C., Lane J. & Sturgeon T., “Workers’ views on the impact of trade on jobs”, IZA Discussion Paper 5369, December 2010.