eu enlargement and eu finance: threats and challenges roel jongeneel wageningen universiteit...
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EU enlargement and EU finance:
threats and challenges
Roel JongeneelWageningen Universiteit(agrarische economie)
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Introduction
EU enlargement General characteristics (countries, consumers
producers)
Entry issues (integration, politics, Acquis, direct payments, structural funds, finance)
EU finance Issues Public finance budget principles Politics
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Which countries?
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Consumers & demand
+ 100 million new consumersSpent 30% of income on foodAre used to consume (dairy) prods.
cons. declined during transition weak & incomplete recovery afterwards
Demand for ‘value added’ prods (cheese, fresh dairy)
Income growth (yes) ; pop.growth (no)
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Income per capita based on PPP
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
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Producers & agr. supply
Large share of pop lives on small farms (dual farm structure)
Low incomes, no sustainable livelihoodLow degree of market integrationDependence of public transfers for incomeLand-reform induced fragmentation Semi-subsistence farms as social bufferInstitutions & social capital weak (property
rights, credit, market channels, extension, …)
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Transition-economy
1989 1994 2002
100
75
Evolution milk production
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Productie in COE
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Granen
Melk
Vlees
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Prijsverschil tussen EU en COE voor melk
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000(e)
%
pri
ce
ga
p
Czech RepublicEstoniaHungaryPolandSloveniaEUWorld
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Prijsverschil tussen EU en COE: tarwe
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000(e)
%
pri
ce
ga
p
Czech RepublicEstoniaHungaryPolandSloveniaEUWorld
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Handel tussen EU-15 en COE-10: agrarische producten en voedsel
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Bil
lion
EU
RO
EU Import
EU Export
EU Balance
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Forms of integration
Verschillende vormen van integratiePreferentieel akkoordVrijhandelszoneDouane unieGemeenschappelijke marktEconomische en monetaire Unie
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Copenhagen criteria (1993)
Stabiliteit van de instituties (democratie), mensenrechten; minderheden
Een functionerende markteconomieConcurrentiepositieKan verplichtingen van het
lidmaatschap op zich nemen
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Ontwikkelingen COE-landen
Introductie eigendomsrechten en privatisering
Prijzen agrarische producten richting EU-prijzen
Toelevering, verwerking, FDIIntroductie ‘Acquis Communautair’Eisen productkwaliteit, proceskwaliteitBelang van éénduidig pad
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Het pad naar toetreding COE-landen
Europe AgreementsPolitieke besluiten bij Europese topsVerdrag van Amsterdam / NiceAgenda 2000‘Double zero’ optionsToetredingsonderhandelingenBesluiten van Kopenhagen eind 2002
(toetreding in mei 2004)
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Wat waren de belangrijkste issues op het terrein van de landbouwpolitiek?
Toekenning directe inkomenstoeslagen (granen, runderen, etc.)
Omvang van de quota (melk, suiker, etc.)
Speciale regelingen / overgangsperioden per land
WTO?
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Directe inkomenstoeslagen IArgumenten tegen het verlenen van toeslagenWas een compensatie voor een prijsverlagingKan (vooral voor grote bedrijven in COE-landen)
tot zeer hoge inkomens leiden: sociale spanningen
COE-landen zijn veel meer geholpen met subsidies voor structuurverbetering (o.a. minder landbouw gericht)
Directe inkomenstoeslagen eindigt vooral in de prijzen van productiefactoren (grond, eigendomsrechten)
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Directe inkomenstoeslagen II
Argumenten voor het verlenen van toeslagen
Zonder inkomenstoeslagen in de COE-landen gaat het EU-budget in belangrijke mate naar de landbouw in de rijkere EU-landen
Rechtvaardigheid (tussen vrijwel identieke producenten) binnen de vergrote EU en op lange termijn is in het geding
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Quota
Relatief hoog prijsniveau maakt quota aantrekkelijk
Referentieperiode is belangrijk- verwachte groei consumptie- verwachte groei productie- belangen EU-15 producenten
Politieke afweging / inkomenstoeslagen
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Speciale regelingen
GrondeigendomArbeidProductdefinitiesOvergangstermijnen
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Structuurbeleid
Verschillende structuurfondsen- regionaal- sociaal- orientatie- visserij
Plattelandsbeleid (uit garantiefonds)Absorptiecapaciteit COE-landenPositie COE-landen versus Zuidelijke
lidstaten
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Financiele dilemma’s
Middelen nodig voorVerdere hervorming prijs- => inkomensbeleid Infasering toeslagen 10 toetredende landen
(degressiviteit)Structuurbeleid / plattelandsbeleid (modulatie)Toetreding Bulgarije en RoemenieVoedselkwaliteit / voedselveiligheid
+Vele andere beleidsterreinen!
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Hoe verder?
Verdere hervorming EU landbouwbeleidCEECs zijn daarvan een onderdeelAfweging structuurbeleid <=>
toeslagenCEECs (positie Zuid Europa)
FDI / Ketens / Groei vraagGeleidelijk proces met ‘significante’
politieke besluiten
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EU finance: issues and challenges
Roel Jongeneel
Zie boek H3 en Reader bijdrage Petit (p.70 e.v.)
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EU finance: agr. spending
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
5000019
75
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Tho
usan
d of
EC
U/E
uro
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US agricultural spending
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1929
1936
1943
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
mill
ion$
(199
6=10
0)
Net farm income
Government payments
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Looking backward EU outlays for agriculture grew from about 5 billion ECU in
1975 to €43 billion in 1998. These figures do not include government spending on agriculture by individual EU member countries.
The CAP currently accounts for about 40 percent of the EU budget, but has required as much as 70 percent in earlier years.
Because outlays were tied to agricultural production and exports, and both production and exports were was increasing, outlays rose rapidly and strained the resources of the EU.
High budget outlays on agriculture precipitated several budget "crises," leading to a series of policy reforms aimed at bringing agricultural expenditures under control.
US total outlays are much lower than EU’s (20 billion dollar in 1998). Support per farm is similar. Support fluctuates more (complementarity, disaster payments)
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EU financien: besch.middelen
Eigen Middelen Besluit => bepaalt hoogte en systeem van eigen middelen verkrijging (abs. maximum)
Financiële Perspectieven => meerjarig financieel kader per beleidscategorie (1a/1b), incl.flexibiliteitsreserve (2000-2006, EuRaad)
Begroting=> jrl. Uitgaven en inkomsten (sluitend); bevat vastleggingskredieten (meerjarig) en betalingskredieten
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EU financien: fin.kaders
Eigen Middelen Besluit
Financiele Perspectieven
Begroting
In 1970: aandeel landbouw in tot.begr 80%; nu ca. 40%
In 82-86: GLB uitgavengroei > 15%/jr.; scheidslijn zelfvrz.
In 1988: introductie van Richtsnoer (fin.displ.: uitgavengroei < 0.75% van BNP groei; later nog strakkere Fin.Perspectieven (1999))
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Public finance
Government task criteria => derived from market failures-approach
Includes efficiency considerations (quasi-public goods, lump sum payments rather than price distortions, etc)
Financial discipline: budget-normsSubsidiarity principle (plattelandsbeleid)
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Member state contributions
Afdracht BNI (NL €2.3 miljard/ 50%)
Afdracht BTW (NL €1.2 miljard/27%)
Afdracht douane- en landbouwheffingen (NL €1.1 miljard/ 23%; other countries 11%)
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EU &net position Netherlands
EU creates a 10% general income increaseAgr.spending €44,4 billion (0.47% of BNI) out
of total €90,6 billion (0.96% of BNI) (2003 realised)
NL biggest (and increasing) net payer: €180/cap (could rise to €250-300 in 2007)
Net receiver untill 1990; changed position due to MacSharry (low cereals share) and changes in structural funds (enlargement)
Negotiations meerjarenbegroting 2007-2013 (Balkenende/Zalm negotiated Dutch rebate €1 billion)
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Benefits and costs
Lusten/lastendiscussie sterk gefocust op schatkistpositie
Speciale situatie NL (rijk, Rotterdam-effect, weinig granen, rel.weinig support)
Discussie vaak te eng: de economische baten en kostenbalans valt nog steeds gunstig uit voor NL (kleine open economie, afh. van landbouw export mglkh.)
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Benefit and costs EU
DNL
DNL +NDEU SNL
PNL
PWM
= PEU
ExpEU
CNL CEU EUbudget fractie BNL
NLEXP
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CAP politics and finance
Preoccupation with national interests (in particular budget/contrib)
Tendency to most expensive menu-choice
Budgettary pressure induces reforms (Petit)
The more ‘visible’ the payments the more they are subject to repeated public debate (dir.paym., time inconsistency, modulation)
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Political economy (Petit)
stakeholders &
pressure groups
Downward nominal price rigidity
Budget limitations
External pressure
Closure of policy decisions
short long-term
term
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Thanks
© Wageningen UR