etip snet n-side industoreetip-snet.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/3. the... · load shedding load...
TRANSCRIPT
Partenariat avec le soutien de
– InduStore –ETIP SNET
Central Region Workshop
12 October 2018
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Oct2014-Sept2018
InduStore: Project Energinsere fundedby the Walloon Region
INDUSTORE 2
Objective
è QuantificationofEnergyFlexibilityPotentialinWallonia
è BringawarenesstotheindustrialsitesonhowtoleveragetheirFlexibilityPotential
ICTEAMCrecis
SystMod Institut Conseil enDéveloppement Durable
N-SIDE(Coordinator)
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Why the InduStore Project?
VolatilitycausingopportunitiesGrowingneedfor« Demand
Response »services
Growingcomplexityofenergyecosysteminindustrialsites
Digitalizationandincreaseofavailibilityofdata
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
EUR/MWh
Howtoleverageflexibilityonindustrialsitesoptimally?
S S M T W T F
3
Partenariat avec le soutien de
InduStore targets a global optimization approach for energy flexibility
4
FlexibilityLevers
TemporalHorizon
Valorizationapproach
LoadShedding LoadShifting
Weekly Daily Intra-day Real-time
Discreteprocess ContinuousProcess Utilities CHPFlexibleProcesses
Price-basedDemandResponse Incentive-basedDemandResponse
LoadRescheduling FuelSwitching CHP
Partenariat avec le soutien de
A multidisciplinary approach of flexibility...
INDUSTORE 5
Industry HumanResources Technology
è DesignofAuditmethodology
è On-siteaudits
è Excelbasedtool(Flexi-CalcTool)toquantifyflexibility
è Quantitativepsycho-socialloadsurvey
è Managerialandtechnicalrecommandations
èMathematicalmodellingofflexibleprocesses
è Optimalplanningofflexibleprocesses
è Electricitypriceprediction
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Focus on the Industry...
INDUSTORE 6
Industry HumanResources Technology
è DesignofAuditmethodology
è On-siteaudits
è Excelbasedtool(Flexi-CalcTool)toquantifyflexibility
è Quantitativepsycho-socialloadsurvey
è Managerialandtechnicalrecommendations
èMathematicalmodellingofflexibleprocesses
è Optimalplanningofflexibleprocesses
è Electricitypriceprediction
Partenariat avec le soutien de INDUSTORE 7
Quantificationofflexibilityatdifferent
industrialsites
Developmentofforecastbasedonmachinelearning
techniques
DeploymentofFlexi-Calctoassesquickly
andgloballyflexibilitypotential
Micro
Macro
Focus on the Industry...
ReportonAuditMethodology
Oct14– March17
IndustrialAudits
ICEDD
N-SIDE
Apr17– Sept18
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Development of an Audit Methodology
INDUSTORE 8
Phase2:DetailedAnalysisPhase1:FirstFlexPotentialAssessment
Conten
t • On-sitemeeting• Firstdatacollection• Firstpotentialassessmentonthedifferentmarkets
• On-sitemathematicalmodelling• Optimization w.r.t technical,businessandeconomicconstraints
Deliverab
les • Identificationofthelevers
• Orderofmagnitudeofflexibilitypotentialonthedifferentmarkers
• Priorisation oftheleversforamoredetailedanalysis
• Holisticquantification• Recommendations onthebeststrategytovalorizetheleversonthedifferentmarkets
• IntegratedOptimizationActionPlanforFlexibility
5typesofleversLoadShedding LoadShifting LoadRescheduling FuelSwitching CHP
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Global quantification of flexibility: Flexi-Calc
INDUSTORE 9
Flexi-Calc =Excel-basedtooldevelopedbyICEDDallowingaflexibilitypotentialassessmentintheformofasurvey
About200industrialsitessurveyed,±40exploitableanswersRespondentscovermostoftheactivityareasintheWalloonRegion
Exampleofquestions:• Peakconsumptionofthesite?• Pricethresholdtoturn-offMachineX?• Stockavailablebefore/afterMachineY?
è Resultsarecommunicatedtotheindustrialsite(confidentialdata)
Donohesitatetoreachouttotakethesurvey!Flexi-CalcforYOU
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Development of Electricity Price Forecasts for the DA and Balancing market
1- TRAININGTrainingand
combinationsof100’soffeatures
2- VALIDATIONValidationofthemodelbasedonhistoricaldata
3- PREDICTIONProvidingsignalsat
differenttimehorizons
PredictionsbasedondeeplearningtechniquesPredictiveAnalytics
Forecast basedonDeepLearning
AVECIA
ForecastbasedonSimpleStrategy
SANSIA
Requiredperiod
HISTORICALdata REAL-TIMEFORECAST
>500Features
MLMODELS
Predictionupto1hourinadvance
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Focus on the HR side...
INDUSTORE 11
Industry HumanResources Technology
è DesignofAuditmethodology
è On-siteaudits
è Excelbasedtool(Flexi-CalcTool)toquantifyflexibility
è Quantitativepsycho-socialloadsurvey
è Managerialandtechnicalrecommendations
èMathematicalmodellingofflexibleprocesses
è Optimalplanningofflexibleprocesses
è Electricitypriceprediction
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Survey on the psycho-social load
INDUSTORE 12
Industrysector:• Chemical• Glass• Steelmaking• Paper&Cardboard• Food
Interestedtoknowmore?White-papertobepublishedonInduStore’s website!
Mainconclusionswithrespecttowell-beingandhealth
1. Negativeeffect oftemporalflexibilityatwork(e.g unexpectedrecall)2. Possiblesomatization duetoanxietyofvariabilityofschedulesandlengthofworkcycles3. Verypositiveeffectoffunctionalflexibility(versatility,rotation)
Context
About2800interrogatedemployees
55%responserate(Majorityofblue-collars)
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Focus on the Tech side...
INDUSTORE 13
Industry HumanResources Technology
è DesignofAuditmethodology
è On-siteaudits
è Excelbasedtool(Flexi-CalcTool)toquantifyflexibility
è Quantitativepsycho-socialloadsurvey
è Managerialandtechnicalrecommendations
èMathematicalmodellingofflexibleprocesses
è Optimalplanningofflexibleprocesses
è Electricitypriceprediction(alreadymentioned)
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Innovative research approaches to tackle industrial challenges3 Main Axes: è Reservoir Framework: generic framework
to model industrial processes
è Optimization of weekly planning (shifts and machines, electricity prices)
è Detailed schedule of industrial processes with Constraints Programming w.r.telectricity prices and business constraints
Future: Further incorporate those techniques to leverage flexibility!
INDUSTORE 14
Partenariat avec le soutien de
A challenging 4-years project...
INDUSTORE 15
Flexibility is becoming hot... but still work to bring AWARENESS!
Energy sometimes still seen as a SUNK cost
Structural Belief flexibility cannot be implemented
Lack of resources always an issue (time and money)
è Key to talk to the key persons
è Bring Energy Markets knowledge
è Dedicate time to review all processes
è Highlight the quick wins and benefits
Partenariat avec le soutien de
Different partners in different industries
16
Stembert FeluyJupille
Liège
VirtonMarchienne-au-pont
Agro-alimentaire Fonderie Plastique Chimie Papier Acier
Partenariat avec le soutien de INDUSTORE 17
Benefit and Next Steps!
è AssesstheReadinesslevelofIndustriesandIndustrialintermsofFlexibilityHRandBusiness (Processes,Markets)
è Bringawareness toindustrialsitesabouttheopportunitiesè DevelopmentofinnovativemathematicalapproachestomodelFlexibilityè Diffusionofreports andarticlesonthewebsite(www.industore-project.be)
InduStore’s MainResults
NextSteps
Proactively proposeflexibilityAudit servicestoIndustrials(WalloniaandinEurope)
Valorize theflexibilitypotentialthankstoENERTOP,thedecision-aidsolutiontooptimizeflexibilityfromN-SIDE
Furtherintegrate theinnovativeapproachesdevelopedintheproject(Planning&Schedulingwrt EnergyPrices)
Partenariat avec le soutien de INDUSTORE 18
Interested to know more about InduStore?
Contactus:
[email protected]+32(0)472468344N-SIDE,Blv Baudouin 1er,251348Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium
Thankyou!