ethical and pragmatic energy solutions1 climate change: pragmatic solutions “we cannot risk our...

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS1 Climate Change: Pragmatic Solutions We Cannot Risk Our Kids Futures On the False Hope That the Vast Majority of Scientists Are Wrong. BICEP Businesses Bill Haaf, December 2014

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS2 How to Prevent Catastrophe? Climate science is settled enough Slides at end Today: Grim reality Why it will get hot Risks and harsh metrics Take home message Six pragmatic steps Hail Mary: Technology overview How you can help Your feedback and ideas Supplemental slides: References; science; geo engineering

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS3 Status & Todays Message 800 pound Fossil Fuel Industry Cheap coal/Nat gas Pathforward ???

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS4 Science Enough References: Consensus groups; Peer-reviewed publications; Reputable scientists actually working in this field It is a RISK issue: Believe science Do not need 100% Science is more than Enough

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS5 Why it Will Get Hotter IPCC: Keep carbon emissions below 3.6F not exceeding Dangerous.. But Still a work in progress; Unknown feedback emissions (Permafrost; clouds; plant and ocean absorption/emit back?; Short lived gases?, etc. 480 billion tons left to emit, then ZERO Others: 250- 350 billion tons; depends on percent risk and halting deforestation; plant new forests; methane? London Financial Group: Carbon Tracker Can only burn 20% of total reserves of coal, oil & natural gas. So, 15-30 years to reach CO2 levels that cause a 3.6F increase - UNEP: 2055 -70 35 billion tons of CO2/year; Hot even if..

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS6 Will a China/USA Trade Agreement Save Us? China: Emissions peak in 2030 & NonFF rise to 20% USA: Cut 27% below 2005 by 2025 (needs coal reductions) New Congress will attack EPA & CAAct on coal Even if all implemented, NOT ENOUGH REDUCTIONS Value: Takes away the argument that China wont reduce Helps shape future policy and other nations Includes major CCS coal plant in China (& potable water) Funding for clean energy technology partnership University & Res. institutions & industry CCS= carbon capture & seq

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS7 We are on track for a 7 F hotter world* marked by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and a life-threatening sea level rise. CEO, World Bank (1.8 F so far) 7F is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems... Price Waterhouse Coopers The coldest year by 2047 will be hotter than the hottest year 1860-2005 Mora C., Nature 2013 Hurricane Haiyan = 194 mph wind. A preview? *Earths temperature was 7 lower during last ice age, with a mile of ice above us. Risk is Real

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS8 Risk Drives Everything IPCC 2013/14: International Panel Climate Scientists: Warming is unequivocal atmosphere & oceans have warmed, snow and ice diminished, sea level has risen as GHG has increased Over the last 20 years Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets have lost mass; worldwide glaciers shrinking; Arctic Sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continue to decrease Ocean acidification up 26% Human influence extremely likely as dominant cause

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS9 Risk Drives Everything National Climate Assessment 2014: Temperatures rise; Extreme storms; Prolonged droughts in the Southwest Large forest fires; Insect-borne diseases; Pine Beetle Sea level rise & storm surges! USDA, 2 reports 2013: American agriculture and forests threatened Crop yields decline fast with temperatures > 88F 2F increase = wheat > 20% loss Melting ice in Greenland = 500 cubic kilometer per year; csr.utexas.edu/personal/chen/publication.html 90% of the worlds glaciers are retreating, see slides

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS10 Harsh Metrics #1 : CO2 China = 30% global CO2 emission USA = 15 % (leader for 150 yrs; highest per capita) EU6 = 10 % India = 7.1 Russia = 5.3 Japan = 5 Cheap coal emits 43% of the worlds CO2 and consumption is growing

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS11 Harsh Metrics #2: Focus on Electricity Gen China burns 50% of the worlds coal India has cheap large coal reserves 59% of Indias electricity coal; 4 new mega coal power sites = 10% USA = 37% of electric power from coal Average* American coal utility emits 10,000,000 tons CO2 per year (= 2250 wind turbines 2 Mw) It would take 260,000 wind turbines to replace 50% of electricity All solar PV in America displaced 1.3 coal utilities *Average of top 100 coal utilities; 7000 in America (carma.org); 72,000 wind turbines in 2013 *USA = 6.5 billion tons CO2/yr; World = 35 billion tons CO2/yr

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS12 Harsh Metrics #2: Focus on Electricity Gen 2001-2010 Global Elect. by coal increased ; 2700 terawatt vs 1300 TW All RE & N Proj. American Elec. 2013-40 ( EIA): - 73% Nat gas; 24 % RE; 3 % Nuc Worlds Largest solar PV : 290 MW= 625,000. mw-hr #50 COAL UTILITY =10 to 13,00,000. MW-hr (60-85% ) - - RE starting from much lower base

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS13 Harsh Metrics #3 Electricity Generation USA = 67% fossil fuel Germany = 56% fossil fuel As Germany phases out nuclear, use of coal increases & GHGs go up! Pennsylvania: 69% FF 21% nuclear 3% wind 0.4% solar 5% hydro

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS14 Transition to Low Carbon Takes Many Decades CHINA: By 2040 coal drops 15% to 52% Wind up 7% Nuclear up 6%; More? More low carbon energy than all of Europe

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS15 American Oil & gas industry = $1.1 trillion Massive infrastructure, political power, and many jobs THUS the FF Industry Must help lead on climate stewardship Progressive FF corporations Concern : State Rep. Att. Gen. & Oil Companies Take Home: All solutions must include FFI CAN NOT WORK AROUND!

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS16 FFI: Their Solution is Carbon Capture & Sequester Fossil Fuels are not disappearing soon it seems inconceivable that we can do this without substantial carbon capture & sequestration. - J. Thompson, director of Fossil Fuel Transition Project Clean Air Task Force Even if we were given free renewable energy, it would be economically unthinkable for nations or corporations to abandon the enormous investments they have made in the fossil fuel system from coal mines to oil wells, gas pipelines and refineries to millions of local filling stations. Infrastructure equals $20 trillion. - Vaclav Smil, Czech-Canadian scientist and policy analyst. He is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS17 No Easy Path Forward for Low Carbon Energy Not going to happen Coal, natural gas and oil are too cheap TRUE: Unfair subsidies lead to increase in death of miners, black lung, spills, air pollution (Hg), health impacts, etc. * Jobs and the Economy TRUMP ! Society does not seem to care; Nor vote to change

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS18 Step #1 FFI: This is a KEY STEP Make Their climate science Risk Assessments public - Simple yet powerful tool - FFI must be good Product Stewards Force Congress, public, & FFI to discuss solutions FFI have in-house expertise & climate risk assessments! Not Why we need energy

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS19 Step #2 FFI: Low Cost and Easy Industry must lead by setting goals to reduce and maintain background CH4 emissions EPA proposed rules Monitoring data highly variable Need 3 rd party assessment which is made public Stewardship Example: ACC - Responsible Care Code; Alaskan Pollock Industry; Forestry; Green Bldgs

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS20 Steps #3, 4, and 5: ALL STALLED UNTIL ECONOMIC IMPACTS ARE LINKED TO HEAT GOAL: Power plants can use any fuel or technology to generate electricity as long as all emissions & GHGs meet steadily increasing standards. Let the most cost-effective clean technology win Means Govt Policy*: STEP 3: All Utilities Must use Carbon Cap & Seq $$ & needs R&D; 100 X pipelines E.OilR. & Deep storage Govt - Need $ub CC& S SEE: http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php (Yes- Eng eff, And..) http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS21 Steps # 4, & 5: Let the most cost-effective clean technology win. Needs Policy : STEP 4: Massive crash program for - New Gen nuclear; & Subsidize offshore wind & R&D for solar STEP 5: Carbon tax Helpful; Slow; Not sufficient *All policies must resolve the FFI 800-pound gorilla

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS22 STEP 6: Hail Mary of Cheap Energy Google RE < $ Coal project Learnings: that reversing the trend would require both radical technological advances in cheap zero-carbon energy, as well as a method of extracting CO 2 from the atmosphere and sequestering the carbon. .. reliable zero-carbon energy sources so cheap that the operators of power plants and industrial facilities alike have an economic rationale for switching over soonsay, within the next 40 years.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS23 What is Needed: Google The owner would have to factor in the capital investment for construction and continued costs of operation and maintenanceand still make a profit while generating electricity for less than $0.04/kWh to $0.06/kWh. Energy so cheap utilities and corporations switch over in 40 years. Across the board, we need solutions that dont require subsidies or government regulations that penalize fossil fuel usage So rather than depend on politicians high ideals to drive change, its a safer bet to rely on businesses self interest: in other words, the bottom line.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS24 Resources for R&D: Google Incremental improvements are not enough Adopt 70-20-10 R&D strategy 70% existing low carbonbuild to help reduce impact 20%cutting-edge technology on the path to economic viability 10%wild and crazy and disruptive

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS25 Will Some be Hail Mary? Free night wind energy to make H2 for fuel cells(currently into methane) Biomass to H2 South Korea Jeju Islands $200 million smart grid test Segway inventor Dean Kamen: New Stirling Engine fuel cell Need low cost and more efficient solar thanks China! EG: perovskite; etc; Scale up cost issues! Experience needed on Off shore wind (harsh)

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS26 More Technology Convert CO2 (from CCS) to EG, methanol, synthetic gas, Siluria tech: CH4 to fuels Net Power Company: No-emissions power plant Scaling up Low-cost Energy storage: German Regelenergie, Aquion, many others New generation nuclear : SMR- NuScale, Thorium China, Saudi Arabia and Russia Conceptual studies on low carbon energy plus HVDC M. Jacobson OR Sandy MacDonald German 80% RE; Solar 100% America

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS27 CONCEPT: Inject CO2 in hot brine from deep Gulf, use geoheat = sequestration plus cost effectiveness

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS28

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS29 CO2 Capture: Rice University Needs Scale-Up

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS30 Fusion: China or Lockheed Martin? The potential is amazing No radiation Lockheed Martin: 10 years to a small fusion reactor Skeptical ?

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS31 What Must All Companies do? Set Public goals : Reduce absolute CO2-e Emissions every year Not Indexed Count both internal and external energy Annual public reports Lobby Congress on climate risks

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS32 What Can You Do? Send email to (see list): Express your concern and fear for children and grandkids Ask CEOs of oil and natural gas companies and utilities for their climate risk assessments. Dear Company : I am very concerned about the risks of climate change to my children and grandchildren. What is your opinion of the science? What are you doing to reduce the carbon emissions of your products? Thank you Dear Congressman: I am very concerned about the risks of climate change to my children and grandchildren. Please send me your opinion of the science and risks. Thank you..

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS33 Feedback What are your ideas/ questions ?

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS34 Supplement Slides Science and data Geo-engineering Resiliency

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS35 Harsh Metrics NATURAL GAS: Energy for 90 years OIL SHALE: Competing with OPEC; Russias 3000-mile pipeline to China

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS36 U Texas challenge Ngas Forecasts

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS37 REF: Climate Science Enough A Climate Overview from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences 2014: dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/exec-office-other/climate-change-full.pdf American Association for the Advancement of Science: 2014: whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AAAS-What-We-Know.pdf Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ipcc.ch/ NOAA: climate.gov/teaching National Snow & Ice Data Center: nsidc.org/ eg: Nov 2014: Worldwide retreat of glaciers confirmed in unprecedented detail 2014 National Climate Assessment: globalchange.gov/ncadac

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS38 REF II: Science Enough Reuters reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/ NASA climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus Skeptical Science skepticalscience.com/ Google work on energy spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate- change (Ross Koningstein and David Fork) World Meteorlogical Organization (WMO) wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/factsheet/documents/Climate-Change-Info-Sheet- 136_fr.pdf

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS39 REF III: Science Enough A Crack in the Natural-Gas Bridge: Nature; 514, 436437, (Oct. 2014); Steven J. Davis & Christine Shearer Climate Science is Settled Enough: slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/the_wall_street_journal_and_ste ve_koonin_the_new_face_of_climate_change.html By Raymond T. Pierrehumber Four Top Climate Scientists - Letter on Nuclear Power: cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter 4 Former EPA Heads Under Republican President Testify on Climate: usnews.com/news/articles/2014/06/17/former-epa-chiefs-under-reagan-bush-to-testify- on-need-to-address-climate-change 15 Stabilization Wedges http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS40 Emergency: Geo-engineering Remove CO2 from the atmosphere: Not easy; still ocean impacts Biochar? Block sunlight? Olivine rocks in ocean surf? Iron in ocean? Capture CO2 from Air? Presentation to 4CP ?

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS41 When it Gets Hot: Adapt Verizon flood barrier Con Edisons Risk Assessment for climate risks to its power grid NYC Move away from ocean, drought areas Farmers move north Survival techniques: What will your family do? Water, food, power Varies with time period Separate presentationnot today

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS42 Planet has Been Liveable Earth = 55F warmer from CO2. H2o vapor goes with temp. - 8 F = Mile of ice +7 F = Mile of heat? 280 to 400 ppm in 125 years

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS43 NOTE: Land

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS44 Global Sea-Land Anomaly 1880-2013

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS45 Global Surface Air Temp = 3-6 ft Above Land or Water World = 34 billion tons CO2/yr; USA = 5.5 B (Electricity = 3 B); China = 8.7 B)

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS46 Global Ocean Heat Content

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS47 Ocean Temperatures: 2000-2013 IPCC: Virtually certain (o-700m) warmed 1971-2010; Likely warmed 700m-2000m -1957-2009; & 3000 m to bottom 1992-2005. From 2000-2013 the global ocean surface temperature rise paused, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Called Global Warming Hiatus. However, as of April 2014 ocean warming has picked up speed again. The 2014 global ocean warming is mostly due to the North Pacific, which has warmed far beyond any recorded value & has shifted hurricane tracks, weakened trade winds, and produced coral bleaching in the Hawaiian Islands.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS48 Ocean Temperatures: Gulf of Maine (Atlantic), Cape cod to Nova Scotia, warming faster than 99% of the oceans Impacts on fisheries, lobsters? Species are changing

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS49 Causes jet stream to wobble & move. Weather systems get stuck. High Latitudes Warming 2X

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS50 Antarctic & Greenland Satellite data shows ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are declining at record speed. The annual loss of ice has doubled in the case of Greenland (left) and tripled in the West Antarctic compared to figures from 2009. In 21 years,the West Antarctica Ice Sheet has lost the equivalent of a Mt. Everest in ice every 2 years.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS51 Antarctica Sea ice surrounding the Antarctic reached its maximum extent = 7.76 million sq miles; 595,000 sq miles above the 1981 to 2010 average; well above average Might be caused by changing wind patterns or recent ice sheet melt from warmer, deep ocean water reaching the coastline. The melt water freshens and cools the deep ocean layer. Huge section of west Antarctic ice sheet has reached a irreversible collapse point = 3 ft sea level rise.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS52 More Scary Data Amazon Basin Rainforest: In dry years the basin loses carbon. Climate-caused droughts will change to a net emitter Of 588 birds studied, 314 will lose the majority of their current range (National Audubon Society) Soils store more carbon than plants and atmosphere combined: Impact of more CO2? Higher temps? Impacts microbes & plant enzymes in unexpected ways Permafrost: Ground temps have increased in most regions; Northern Russia and Europe has most degradation; permafrost boundary of discontinuous moved 80 km and continuous moved 50 km. note 2X C that is in atmosphere

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS53 More Scary Data II Sea Level: 1901-2010, global mean rose 0.19 meter. The rate of sea level rise since 1950 has been larger than the rate during the last 200 yrs (IPCC). Impact of ocean acidity and rising temperatures on corals, fish, shellfish, jellyfish? Pine bark beetles live through warmer winters, millions of trees dead

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS54 Climate Corp: Predicts Weather for Farmers The company tries to factor every important climatic condition into its algorithm, including carbon-dioxide levels, ocean temperatures, and the oscillations of El Nio and La Nia. The Corn Belt is moving north, absolutely and rapidly. You can see it most clearly in North Dakota. Richland and Cass Counties (the latter includes Fargo) used to be the only places in the state where corn grew successfully. Now they are growing it all the way up to Manitoba, Seifert said. That had been canola territory, but canola has retreated even farther north. Eventually, we will hit the Canadian Shielda vast stretch of Precambrian rock covered by a thin layer of soil and that will be the end. For the first time, farmers in North Dakota are having trouble getting their corn to market: there is just too much of it to be moved on the existing system of roads and rails.

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS55 Climate Corp: Weather Prediction, Continued by 2050 wheat could be planted rarely in Kansas but widely in Alaska. This is not so much about global warming as it is about the frequency of severe weather

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS56 Cumulative Emissions

ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS57

ethical and pragmatic energy solutions1 climate change: pragmatic solutions “we cannot risk our...

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