ethanol & grain market outlook for 2007-09 9/04/07
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Ethanol & Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 9/04/07. By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A. Grain Marketing Considerations for 2007-09. Tight storage & transportation ahead - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Ethanol & Grain Market Outlook Ethanol & Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09for 2007-09
9/04/07
By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles
Professor of International Agriculture
Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A.
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Grain Marketing Considerations for 2007-09Grain Marketing Considerations for 2007-09 1. Tight storage & transportation ahead2. Weakening corn basis likely @ harvest3. Markets offering excellent storage returns
(if you have bin space) – for both corn & beans – to summer ‘08
4. Consider leaving basis open for summer ’08 delivery
5. Expect strong basis around ethanol plants6. Expect blow-off top in wheat to impact
corn, bean markets -- when it happens7. Be conservative on 2008 & ’09 marketings
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Grain Marketing for 2007-09, IIGrain Marketing for 2007-09, II
1. Expect stronger cash corn mkt. into winter2. Wheat, SB pulling acres out of corn 3. Bean mkt. danger: big jump in Brazil Acres4. Biofuels is global development5. World grain & livestock mkts.: big
adjustments ahead6. Ethanol growth increases mkt. sensitivity
to weather
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Risk Factors: Corn & Bean MarketsRisk Factors: Corn & Bean Markets
1. Severe grain transport stress – Miss. River (Tenn.-Ky. River prices corn $2.58/bu. 9/05/07)
2. Limited ethanol blending capacity & transportation
3. Big jump in South American acres
4. Collapse in world oil markets (doubtful)
5. Deteriorating global economy (doubtful)
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Key Chart FormationsKey Chart Formations
1. December corn – Gaps @ $3.58 & $3.95
2. 55% retrenchment, Dec. 07 corn: $3.16
3. Nov. ’07 SB – Gap @$9.31/bu.
4. Dec. Chicago wheat – many down-side gaps
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Dec. ’07 wheat reaches record highs
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Weekly Corn Futures
$3.10/bu.
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October ’07 Ethanol Futures
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October ’07 Unleaded Gasoline
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Nov. ’07 SB
Gap
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41 countries encourage biofuels41 countries encourage biofuelsMajor Countries with Ethanol Fuels
• U.S. • Brazil• Canada • China• EU-27• ThailandCountries considering ethanol fuels
• South Africa• Ukraine• Japan
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USDA 07-08
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Expanding U.S. Ethanol Industry vs. 2005-06 Corn Feeding
2005-06 U.S.Corn FeedingPotential Cornfor EthanolOther underconstruction07-08 Ethanol
Current Corn forEthanol
2005-06 U.S.Corn Feeding
Proj. Corn ethanol2011-12
'06-07 Corn for Ethanol
'07-08 Ethanol Proj.Other Constr'n
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Iowa corn processing & ethanol plants, current & planned, 10/26/06
63
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Audubon
Washington
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Appanoose
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VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned. 9/26/06,
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BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
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Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
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Madison
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Clay Kosuth
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Adair
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Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
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Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
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Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
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Madison
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Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned. 9/26/06,
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
Sioux
Cass
Iowa*
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Clay Kosuth
Jasper
Lyon
Page
Storyr Jones
Fayette
Adair
Bentonn
Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
,
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
Sioux
Cass
Iowa*
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66 Planned + current in Iowa11 Just across the borders
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Figure 1.
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Iowa corn processing & ethanol plants, current & planned, 11/20/06
63
Capacity: 129% of 2006 cropCapacity: 159% of 2006 Crop
Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Current & Planned, 7/25/07
72 Potential Iowa Plants 11 Just across IA Borders
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Needed Yld. @ 2007 Acres
?
334 bu./A. @ ethanol plant rated cap.
New trend?
June 2007
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Total 11,693 mil. Bu.
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Ethanol Blending Wall?(Are we there yet?)
• Market incentive to increase blending capacity
• What happens when avg. Midwest blend is 10%?
• More shipments to coasts – at higher cost
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Will increased South American exports more than offset U.S. decline?
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Potential area to be cleared for crops
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August 2007 Crop Production
Crop Unit Aug ‘07
% Chgfrom PrevForecast
% Chgfrom Prev
Season
Corn: Planted Mil
Ac92.9 NC + 18.6
Harvested Mil Ac
85.4 NC + 20.9
Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5 Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9
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Percent Change in Iowa Grain Production by Crop Reporting District, 2007 vs. 2006
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
NW NC NE WC C EC SW SC SE State
CornSoybeansCorn +SB
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Iowa 2007 August Corn & Soybean Production Chgs. Vs. '06 by District
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
NW NC NE WC C EC SW SC SE
Mil.
Bu.
Chg
. vs.
200
6 SoybeansCorncorn + SB
State Combined Total +378 Mil. Bu., +15%
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2007
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Model Forecast:Model Forecast: $3.11/bu$3.11/bu. U.S.. U.S. ’ ’07-08 & 07-08 & $3.20$3.20 for ’08-09for ’08-09
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Proj. Proj.
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U.S. Soybean Yield
41.5
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bushels/Acre
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China Soybean Supply & Use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Production Net Imports Domestic Use
Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
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Soybean Trade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
US Net Export Brazil Net Export China Net Import
Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
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EU Use of Rapeseed Oil
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year Crop Harvested
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Food Other Biofuel
Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
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Source of data: USDA, NASS
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Illinois Corn Yields Drought Tolerant?
2004 2005• NW 184 140• NE 174 129 • WEST 192 141• E.SE. 175 139 • SW 158 133• SE 158 130
% chg.
-24
-26
-27
-21
-16
-18
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What Could Change Prospects of Tightening Global Grain Supply?
• Accelerated corn yield increases• Crude oil price collapse• Early break-through in economical cellulose
conversion• U.S.Ethanol import tax removed – longer term
impacts• U.S. $0.51 blending credit reduced or made
variable• Declining global livestock feeding
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Need for Both Ethanol and Animal Agriculture
• 100 million gallon ethanol plant– 37 million bushels of corn– 80 workers directly employed
• 37 million bu corn Direct jobsFarrow-finish 800Or Wean-finish 242Or Beef feedlot 278
Source: Dr. John Lawrence, Head of ISU Beef CenterSource: Dr. John Lawrence, Head of ISU Beef Center
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http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/wisner/
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...and justice for allThe U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964.
Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Jack M. Payne, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.