Ethanol

Dr. Green

                                                      

                                                       

Ethanol

• Why, in the year following Bush's Energy Policy Act of 2005 - which was plump with ethanol subsidies - were the "best" stocks of the ethanol industry in a tailspin?

• And why now, in 2007, as Bush pushes the ethanol "solution" in his State of the Union address... are other economies, and even our own experts, running from ethanol?

China Leaving Ethanol

• China also needs gas.

• It's the No. 2 producer in the world.

• Xinhua news reports that the National Development and Reform Commission told local governments to STOP approving corn "industrial" projects.

The Wall Street Journal

• The percentage of the U.S. corn crop devoted to ethanol has risen to 20% from 3% in just five years...

• Reaching the president's target of 35 billion gallons at present corn yields would require the entire U.S. corn harvest.

• No wonder the price of corn rose nearly 80% in 2006 alone

Energy vs. Food

• Grain prices in China recently climbed 4.7%, leading Beijing to shut ethanol plants and cancel ethanol projects.

• In Mexico, where most of the country's poor live off corn tortillas, prices have soared 30%.

• Here in the U.S., corn futures are up a whopping 81%, hitting a 10-year high of $3.95 a bushel. – Cattle and other meat will be higher– Corn is a widespread food stable used in a host of

products

Ethanol Hype

• At $4 per bushel corn, ethanol plants will shut down operations and close

• Corn is around $3.90 per bushel now

Ethanol Flaws

• Most car can't even burn ethanol-based fuel

• Ethanol can't be shipped in conventional pipelines or stored in conventional fuel tanks at your local gasoline station. – only about 6% of the gas stations in the

U.S. can even offer you ethanol blends from the pump

Ethanol Hype

• David Pimentel, a professor at Cornell University, and Tad Patzek, an engineering professor at UC Berkeley calculated the net energy balance and fund that ethanol takes 29% more energy to produce than it uses

Ethanol Hype

Fuel Energy IN Energy Out Energy Gain

Ethanol 98,000 BTU

76,000 BTU

-22,000 BTU

Gasoline 22,000 BTU

116,000 BTU

94,000 BTU

Alternatives

• Trash

• Diesel

• Solar

Malmö - Sweden's

• 50-60% of their power and steam heat from hi-tech trash-to-energy converters with minimal pollution

• Total exhaust is 98% water. – uses ammonia to break up harmful nitrogen

oxide into just oxygen and plain-old water. – Uses a giant vacuum with hundreds of fabric

filter bags to effective capture 99% of even the smallest particles.

Trash to Energy

• New York City alone produces 46,000 tons of trash a day.

• At the Fresh Kills landfill, waste piles as high as 315 feet - higher than the Statue of Liberty.

• The whole of New York state has only 10 years of landfill capacity left.

Trash to Energy

• this technology could reduce New York City's trash disposal volume by 90%

• each ton of trash such a plant burns can yield the equivalent of 500 pounds of coal energy.

• Also recover recycled aluminum and steel

New Diesel: Increased Efficiency

• 54 mpg compared with the U.S. standard of a 27.5 mpg with almost no sacrifice in power

• July 2006 mandatory introduction in the U.S. of what's called ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD).

• Widely used in Europe

– France—more than 70% of the cars on the road are diesel-powered.

– Italy, Germany, and Spain are predominantly diesel

– The Brits—40% of new cars are diesel.

Solar Panels

• China firm– Innovator in technology– Manages silicon price so as to purchase silicon

below market price

Solar

• China plans to build the largest solar plant in the world in the province of Gansu

• Gansu has 3,362 hours of sunshine per year • China is building its massive 100-megawatt

solar power plant • California planning to add over 3,000

megawatts of solar power over the next decade using this Chinese country

Problem

• Why are most of these technologies coming from outside the U.S.?

• We have to awaken from our delusions– Face the problems– Train more engineers and less business majors– Quit drawing away our engineers from research

on such technologies to military uses