ethan - bonneville power administration · ethan manthey . this just in: sales data non-residential...
TRANSCRIPT
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ETHAN MANTHEY
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BONNIE WATSON
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STRATEGIC
PLAN
(2016-2021)
6
Focus On tracking changes in
total market energy
consumption for
high-priority markets.
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STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
7
Integrating With Transmission &
Load Forecasting
Building Full-Market
Consumption
Models
Engaging With stakeholders &
getting external RTF
subcommittee
review of our work
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8
HIGH
PRIORITY
MARKETS
8
Markets With
Significant • Energy consumption
• Market changes
impacting consumption
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9
HIGH
PRIORITY
MARKETS
9
• Non-Res Lighting
• Res Lighting
• Res HVAC
• Com HVAC
• (New) Res hot water
• (New) Data centers
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10
PHASED
APPROACH
10
Phases 1. Understand market
2. Develop method
3. Collect data
4. Build model
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JESSICA AIONA
BONNIE WATSON
ETHAN MANTHEY
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Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water
OUR UPCOMING
PROJECTS
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13
Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water
OUR UPCOMING
PROJECTS
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14
Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water
OUR UPCOMING
PROJECTS
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15
Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water
OUR UPCOMING
PROJECTS
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Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water
OUR UPCOMING
PROJECTS
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ETHAN MANTHEY
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This Just In: Sales Data Non-residential Lighting
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The non-residential lighting
market is at a tipping point
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030U.S. DOE 2014
% O
F L
UM
EN
-HO
UR
SA
LE
S
FUTURE LED MARKET SHARE COMMERCIAL SPACE
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We know this because the data is
telling us so
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Distributor Sales Data
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Idaho
Montana Washington
30% Oregon
Sales Data Representation Across the Region
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LEDs – Faster and Faster…
2014
2015
2016
Decorative &
Track Lighting
Indoor Fixtures
Outdoor
Fixtures
A-Type
Reflectors/
Downlights
Reflectors/
Downlights
LED Tubes
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…With Room to Grow
CFL
Halogen
Incandescent
LED
HID
Linear
Fluorescent
2015 2016 2014 2013
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TLEDs +311% Growth
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TLEDs +311% Growth 2
01
6
20
15
20
14
20
13
T5 4ft Fixtures
T12 4ft Fixtures
T8 4ft Fixtures
LED Tube 4ft
Fixtures
Integrated LED
Fixtures
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Linear Sales are Up
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Screw-In Lamps 2013 - 2016
CFL
Halogen
Incandescent
LED
CFL
Halogen
Incandescent
LED
Lots of Incandescents Still
Getting Screwed In
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Pin-Base Downlights
2015 2016 2014 2013
LED
Pin-Base
LED
Retrofit Kit
LED
Fixture
CFL Pin-
Base Lamp
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HID Sales are Finally Declining
Metal
Halide
Mercury
Vapor
High
Pressure
Sodium
2015 2016 2014 2013
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Dramatic Changes Ahead
32
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Stay Cool!
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THX!
See you September 6th!