estimating the cost-ship repair
TRANSCRIPT
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Estimating the Cost
of Repair & Refit
Using PERCEPTION
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Computerized Cost Estimating
• Computer-based tools to quickly
formulate a cost estimate
• Manage cost data from central database
• Maintain current catalog of actual costs
• Maintain catalog of prior estimates
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Establish Libraries of
Centrally Available Cost Data
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Benefits
• Fewer cost surprises
• Faster bid response• Faster bid response
• Lower cost risk
• Greater profit potential
• More competitive bids
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Basic Tool Set:
Application of learning curves
Complexity & productivity factors
Cost escalation
Cost risk analysisCost risk analysis
Cost trade-off
Global edits and update features
Return cost data analysis
User documentation of cost estimate
Tracking of estimate sources and changes
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Work Breakdown Structures
The cost estimates are developed according
to a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS):
• Identify work items• Identify work items
• Identify work process costs
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Identify Work Items
Work Items may be cataloged by
• Ship System WBS (SWBS)
• Shipyard Product WBS (PWBS)• Shipyard Product WBS (PWBS)
• Ship Owner’s WBS
• Government Contract Line Item (CLIN)
Each structure can be customized by shipyard, by contract.
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Identify Work Process
Work Process may be cataloged by
• Stage of Construction (Rip-Out, Shop • Stage of Construction (Rip-Out, Shop Work, On-Unit, On-Block, On-Board, Test)
• Shipyard Department (COA)
Each structure can be customized by shipyard, by contract.
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Cataloging Standard Costs
Catalog
Standard Cost
Estimating
Relationships (CERs) Relationships (CERs)
onto Computer
Database
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Cataloging Standard Costs
By Sequence
• Rip-Out
• Replace
• Repair• Repair
• Install
• Test
Rip-Out Repair Re-Install Test
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Cataloging Standard Costs By
Work Type (SWBS)
• Structural Work
• Machinery
• Electrical
• Paint• Machinery
• Piping
• HVAC
• Paint
• Outfit
• Shipyard Services
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Variations of CERs:
Single V-butt weld size 3/16" - 5/16" (2 pass) 0.250 MH/FT
Line Item CER:
Re-Use Package CER:
Welding Repairs:Cracks Labor CERLabor UoMMaterial CER
Drill Out 0.500 MH/FT -$
Welding Repairs: 0.250 MH/FT 1.4680$
Gen Labor: 0.250 MH/FT -$
Total: 1.000 MH/FT 1.4680$
Re-Use Package CER:
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Cost Adjustments
Cost = fadjust x Standard Cost
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Automating Cost Adjustments
�Work Productivity
�Work Site
�Work Access�Work Access
�Economic Cost Escalation
�Learning Experience
�Standard Material Savings
�Material Waste Adjustments
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Impact of Work Productivity
• Alternate Methods: Expensive staging versus
mobile lift
• Automation: Manual versus automated • Automation: Manual versus automated
welding
• Alternate Resources: In-House versus Sub-
Contract
• Worker Skill Level
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Impact of Work Site
Added Cost Factor
500%
600%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
In Shop On Block On Board
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Impact of Work Access:
Added Cost Factor
40%
50%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
On W
eath
er D
eck
Oil
Tanks
Engin
e R
oomS
uperst
ructu
reP
ump R
oom
Hold
sD
ouble B
ottom
s
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Impact of Work Access:
Over-Head Down-Hand
More Difficult = More Expensive
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Impact of Cost Escalation:
Cost Escalation Index
1.35
1.40
Escala
tio
n I
nd
ex
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Escala
tio
n I
nd
ex
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Impact of Learning:
Cost Reductions From Repeatability
120%
Perc
en
t o
f F
irst
Item
Co
st
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Number of Similar Items Worked
Perc
en
t o
f F
irst
Item
Co
st
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Impact of Standard Materials:
�Standard material items typically less
expensive than non-standard items.expensive than non-standard items.
�Standard material deliveries less
expensive than high-priority rush orders
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Cost Risk Analysis
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Cost Risk
MinimumExpected
Maximum
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Range of Costs
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Cost Risk Analysis
Cost Probability
100%
120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Cost Range
Pro
bab
ilit
y
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Hardware Options
Single User Laptop Single User Desktop
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Hardware Options
Multi-User Network
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Many Report Formats
• Detail Cost Item Reports
• WBS Summary Reports• WBS Summary Reports
• Major Equipment Lists
• Detail Bills of Material
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Cost Detail Information
• Labor Hours
• Labor Costs
• Material costs
• Total Direct Costs• Total Direct Costs
• Taxes & Duties
• Indirect Costs
• Profit
• Total Cost
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Other Capabilities:
• Import/Export: Spreadsheets & Databases
• Data Analysis Module: statistical analysis of cost information to develop CERs
• Return Cost Module: link to shipyard • Return Cost Module: link to shipyard production management systems
• Link to CAD systems: automated cost estimating from design process
• Link to CAD systems: automated down-loading of bills of material
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Over 35 Years Serving the Shipbuilding &
Repair Industry