Estimating, reporting and accounting

Natural Disturbances

Some numerical examples

Zoltan Somogyi

National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre

Forest Research InstituteBudapest, Hungary

JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

1. How to fill in?

kt

2. BL = ? Margin = ?

STEP 1Define (in 2015 ) the types of NDs

STEP 2a - 1 developing total annual emissions excluding salvage

logging: Wildfires

…. 1990 1991 1992 …. 2006 2007 2008 2009 ….

Wildfirestotal estimated 31.7 5.6 4.5 5.0 7.1 4.4

utilized in salvage logging 11.2 1.1 0.2 2.1 2.8 1.1difference = to be used for BL and margin calculation

20.5 4.5 4.3 2.9 4.3 3.3

Disturbance typeInventory year during the calibration period

c

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (ktCO2)

c

STEP 2a - 2 suppose we have a time series for the calibration

period for each ND typeTOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbancesOther: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

STEP 2a - 2 (including rare types)

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbances

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

STEP 2a - 2 (including rare types)

(even those with occasional data)

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbancesOther: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

STEP 2a - 2 by filling in gaps if possible/needed …

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbancesOther: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

STEP 2a - 2 … create consistent and initially complete time series

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 3.8 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 1.5 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 3.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 1.8 3.2 1.3 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 1.0 2.4 2.3 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.6 0.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbancesOther: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

STEP 2a - 3 sum up all annual emissions of the time series

TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wildfires 50.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 5.1 3.8 8.0 8.6 36.2 24.0 18.1 1.5 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.3 7.9 3.9 11.4 5.3 15.2 15.5 22.0Insect attacks, diseases12.7 2.4 1.8 3.2 1.3 2.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 16.0 4.5 1.0 2.4 2.3 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.6 0.6 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.5Extreme weather events: droughts

2.1 2.4 3.8 2.2 1.1

Geological disturbancesOther: floods 3.5

Inventory year during the calibration periodDisturbance type

SUM 63.4 11.2 9.1 8.0 6.3 6.4 10.0 14.3 45.2 40.0 22.6 2.4 12.1 15.2 8.6 7.1 9.9 6.5 14.2 8.9 15.0 18.3 27

STEP 2btotal area and

area-specific emissions (FM) = = total annual emissions / total area

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

45.00 44.96 44.91 44.87 44.82 44.78 44.73 44.69 44.64 44.60 44.55 44.51 44.46 44.42 44.37 44.33 44.29 44.24 44.20 44.15 44.11 44.06 44.02

1.41 0.25 0.20 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.90 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.42 0.61

TOTAL ANNUAL AREA OF CATEGORY (FM) (million ha)

AREA SPECIFIC EMISSIONS OF CATEGORY (FM) (tCO2 eq ha-1)

Inventory year during the calibration period

STEP 3-aarea-specific bl for FM: iteration by „default” method

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1.41 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.9 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

0.37 0.33 1.03

Exclude: 1.41New data series: 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.9 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

(N = 23)Mean: STD: Mean + 2*STD:

ITERATION 1:

Inventory year during the calibration period

STEP 3-aarea-specific bl for FM: iteration by „default” method

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1.41 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.9 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

0.37 0.33 1.03

Exclude: 1.41New data series: 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.9 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

(N = 23)Mean: STD: Mean + 2*STD:

ITERATION 1:

Inventory year during the calibration period

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 1.01 0.9 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

0.33 0.25 0.82

Exclude: 1.01 0.9New data series: 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

2.71

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42 0.61

0.26 0.15 0.57

Exclude: 0.61New data series: 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42

0.24 0.14 0.52

Exclude:New data series: 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.32 0.2 0.34 0.42

(N = 19)

Inventory year during the calibration period

Inventory year during the calibration period

Inventory year during the calibration period

STD: Mean + 2*STD:

STD: Mean + 2*STD:

(N = 22)

(N = 20)

ITERATION 4(FINAL):

Mean: STD: Mean + 2*STD:

ITERATION 2:

Mean:

ITERATION 3:

Mean:

bl =

STEP 3-afrequency distribution of emissions for FM

STEP 3-afrequency distribution of emissions for FM

bl

STEP 3-aemissions for FM by rank

bl

STEP 3-aemissions for FM by rank

STEP 3-bbl for FM: „alternative” methods

• bl = 0

• bl = minimum historical emission

• bl = a value that was developed by using alternative methods of excluding outliers (can be up to approximately the bl by the default method)

STEP 3Projected mean area for the CP: FM

STEP 3calculate BL from bl

and projected mean area for the CP: FMdefault method

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

43.98 43.93 43.89 43.84 43.80 43.76 43.71 43.67

INVENTORY YEAR DURING THE COMMITMENT PERIOD

AREA SPECIFIC BL of FM = 0.24 (tCO2 eq ha-1)

BL FOR FM = 43.82 * 0.24 = 10.70 (million tCO2 eq)

TOTAL PROJECTED ANNUAL AREA OF FM (million ha)

MEAN = 43.82 (million ha)

STEP 3-bbl for AR

if there is no data for ND emissions from AR

• assume, and explain, correlation between ND emisisons for FM and AR (e.g. based on species ratio and site conditions; e.g. emissions from wildfires on AR are half of those on FM)

• develop area-specific time-series of emissions for AR

• calculate bl and STD for AR; e.g. bl = 0.12 tCO2eqha-1

STEP 3Projected mean area for the CP: AR

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2.85 2.99 3.14 3.28 3.43 3.58 3.72 3.87

AREA SPECIFIC BL of AR = 0.12 (tCO2 eq ha-1)

BL FOR AR = 3.36 * 0.12 = 0.41 (million tCO2 eq)

INVENTORY YEAR DURING THE COMMITMENT PERIOD

TOTAL PROJECTED ANNUAL AREA OF AR (million ha)

MEAN = 3.36 (million ha)

STEP 3calculate BL from bl

and projected mean area for the CP: ARdefault method

STEP 4Develop the margin (M) – default method, FM

m = 2*STD

M = m * projected AREA = = (2*0.14 tCO2eqha-1) * 43.82 Mha

= 12.27 MtCO2eq

bl m=2*STD

STEP 4Develop the margin (M)

STEP 5ensure there is no expectation of

credits/debits:

1. assume total annual emissions for the CP that are equal to those of the calibration period

2. calculate total debits and credits3. check if the calculated net credit = 0, in which

case BL and M are OK

• transparently check that BL is included in FMRL

Photo: Ipolyerdő Zrt.

when in doubt,refer to the 2013KPSL