estimating economic costs droughts: lessons learned from ... · drought 20 •18 fish at risk of...
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Estimating Economic Costs Droughts: Lessons Learned from
California
Josué Medellí[email protected]
http:watershed.ucdavis.edu/Medellin
Robert Gailey, Brad Arnold, Angela Kwon, Andrew Bell, Richard Howitt, Duncan MacEwan, Daniel Summer, Jay R. Lund
Management and Economics of DroughtWorld Bank Water Week
March 16, 2017, Washington, DC
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Water Resources in California
2
Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water
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Droughts in California
3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Inch
es o
f P
reci
pit
atio
n A
bo
ve o
r B
elo
w A
vera
ge
Wet years Dry years
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20102015
SOURCE: Western Regional Climate Center. Bars show inches above/below long-term statewide average precipitation (21.42 inches)based on water year (October–September) since 1896.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeats.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-
news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Droughts have also occurred at a geological timescale
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What about water conditions this year?
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Northern Sierra
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San Joaquin Valley
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Agriculture in California Today
• $54+ B in annual value ($40 B crops)
• 300+ commodities
• 9+ M acres (3.8 M Hectares)
• 420,000 Jobs
• Largest in value and size in US
• More than 26 MAF/yr. in applied water (75-80% of statewide beneficial use)
• Trend towards permanent crops7Source: NASS CDL 2011
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Groundwater Depletion, Especially in California’s Tulare Lake Basin
8
SOURCE: What If California’s Drought Continues? (PPIC, 2015), Figure 3.Data through 2009 from DWR; author estimates after 2009. Projections since 2009 may underestimate depletions since the onset of the latest drought (2012+)..
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Water Balances San Joaquin Valley
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C2VSIM (Groundwater)
SWAP (Agricultural Production)
IMPLAN
(Region -Wide Effects)
Changes in • Employment• Total Sector
Output• Value-Added
Changes in • Revenues• Cropping patterns• Inputs Land,
water, supplies
Water supply scenariosSurface cutbacksGroundwater R.S. Fallowing update
Changes in agricultural revenues
INPUTS
MODEL
OUTPUT
10
Changes in • Pumping
capacity• Groundwater
table depths
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Quantification Water Supply Shortage• Surveys to about 100
irrigation districts mostly in the Central Valley expectations on deliveries
• Public announcements from the state and federal contract water projects
• Base water year 2010-2011
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PlanningPolicy
Drawdown
SubmersionSeparation
Effective Depth
10 to 15 ftunless sediment accumulation
Minimum Water Level for Operation
Planning
Access to Groundwater
Policy
$
Well Depths by Location
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Modeling Agricultural Production Decisions
• Inputs: Land, water, labor and supplies
• Self-calibration to base dataset
• Maximizes net returns to land and management
• Outputs: Input use and gross production, revenues and costs
• Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP)
13
Land
Water
Labor
Supplies
Yield
Prices
Calibrated Partial
Equilibrium Model
Input Use
Production value
Base
ScenariosPrices,
land and water availability
costs
f(X) X$Revα, β, γ
http://swap.ucdavis.edu
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Modeling Results: Groundwater is the Main Buffer During Droughts
14Medellin-Azuara et al. (2015) Hydrogeology Journal
http://droughtimpacts.ucdavis.edu
Also see: Why California needs better groundwater management
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Affected irrigated areas vary by crop and region. Field, grain, and feed crops are more vulnerable
15
Medellin-Azuara et al. (2015) Hydrogeology Journal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sacramento,Delta and East
of Delta
San JoaquinRiver
Tulare LakeBasin
10
00
Acr
es/y
ear
Irrigated Areas
Cotton Grain Oilseed Vegetables & Mellons
Fruit and Nut trees Feed and Other Crops
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Sacramento,Delta and East
of Delta
San JoaquinRiver
Tulare LakeBasin
$ M
illio
ns/
year
Revenue Losses
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Higher Revenues and Employment in Fruits, Nuts and Vegetables
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Overall economic impact might seem small
17
Impact Quantity
Water supply, 2015 drought Percent Change
Surface water reduction 8.7 MAF/yr -48%
Groundwater pumping increase 6.0 MAF/yr 72%
Net water shortage 2.7 MAF/yr -10%
Statewide Agriculture Economic ImpactsTotal fallow ( Irrigated crop area 9.3 million acres) 540,000 acres -5.8%
Crop revenue loss $900 million -2.6%
Additional groundwater pumping cost $590 million 75.5%
Livestock and dairy revenue loss $350 million -2.8%
Total direct costs $1.8 billion
Total agriculture economic costs $2.7 billion
Direct job losses 10,100 -2.5%*
Total job losses 21,000
*considering undocumented work force http://droughtimpacts.ucdavis.edu
Groundwater needs tightmanagement and irrigated areareductions are unavoidable
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California Urban Water Systems Weathering Droughts• So far…
• Investments paid off• Regional cooperation• Conservation working
• Continued drought…• Supplies more constrained• Pricing restrictions (Prop
218) and affordability issues
• Some challenges with conservation mandate
• But economic impacts likely to remain small
18Hanak, Ellen, Jeffrey Mount, Caitrin Chappelle, Jay Lund, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Peter Moyle, and Nathaniel Seavy. 2015. What If California’s Drought Continues? Public Policy Institute of California.
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Water Quantity and Quality Issues in Small Water Systems
Dry wells
Concentration of Pollutants
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Ecosystem risks with continued drought
20
• 18 fish at risk of extinction • Need for strategic flows,
conservation hatcheries
• High waterbird mortality• Need for strategic
wetland watering
• Severe wildfire risk, with some permanent losses of conifer forests
• More funding can help
Across the state fish are at risk of extinction with continued drought
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State and Federal Funds Drought
(Millions of dollars) StateFeder
al
Emergency community assistance $200 $358
Impacted communities, workers(food, housing, training)
$102 $78
Safe drinking water systems $90 $17
Technical guidance and planning $8 $14 Feed subsidies for livestock
producers $0 $250
Emergency ecosystem support $66 $67
Emergency fire protection $131 $4
Water system investments $2,609 $104
Total $3,006 $534
SOURCE: Legislative Analyst’s Office, White House fact sheets. Includes fiscal years 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16.
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Lessons Learned1. Every drought is different, droughts force system
thinking
2. Agriculture robust due to groundwater and a diversifiedeconomy, water and land use reductions likely
3. California is Land of Extremes, climate change will likely bring similar and more frequent droughts
4. Groundwater is key, Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 offers some hope
5. Tools like markets, water banking, and portfolio approaches can improve prospects for water supply
6. Small water systems need help
7. Better water accounting and management of cutbacks
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Thank [email protected]://watershed.ucdavis.edu/Medellin
• Further Readings• Californiawaterblog.com
• Drought Impacts:• http://droughtimpacts.ucdavis.edu
• What if the drought continues?• http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_q
uick.asp?i=1160
• Futures of the San Joaquin Valley• http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.as
p?i=1224
• Forthcoming book futures of the San Joaquin Valley