estimating demand concept test focus group creative workshop (questionnaires at&t data terminal...
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ESTIMATING DEMAND
Concept Test
Focus Group
Creative Workshop (questionnaires
AT&T Data Terminal Market
Prototype Test
Group Test
Xerox Docutech System Program, 25
Boeing with United Airlines Jet 777)
Microsoft Windows 95-25000 tests
Opinions of Experts
Discussion Group – Synthesis of opinions - Delphi Method
TECHNOLOGY VERSUS MARKET NEED APPROACH
• WHY TECHNOLOGY? To Solve a Problem To fulfill an Existing Need To Fulfill a Future Need To Propose a Better Solution
• WAY OF THINKING & SOCIAL LIMITS Marconi Radio: From Steamship to Newspapers Thomas Watson: Compute to Computer Transistors: From Deaf to Computer
TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE (Trajectory of Technological Improvement)
T
Application’s
Efficiency
Man hours invested
Emergence Growth Maturity Decline
Sustained Technology
TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE & TECHNOLOGY CHANGE
(Disruptive Technology)
t0 t1 T
Application’s
Efficiency
e1
e0
T1
T2
Man hours invested/Years
READ-WRITE HEAD TECHNOLOGY(Component –Architecture Disc Drive)
t0 t1 T
Recording Density
e1
e0
T1: Ferrite head technology
Man hours invested/Years
T3: Magneto resistive head
Smaller, more precise dimensions
T2: Thin film head
S CURVES FOR FERRITE/OXYDE TECHNOLOGIES FUJITSU-CDC
t0 t1 T
Area Density (millions of bits/square inch)
10
CDC
Fujitsu
Years
30
2
81: 60%
89: 37%
81:10%
89: 33%
TECHNOLOGY CLASSIFICATION
Basic TechnologyCurrent in the field
CAD/CAM Aeronautics
Titanium “
Key TechnologySpecific to the firm, patent
CAD/CAM Automobile
Titanium Submarines
Emerging TechnologyBeginning implementation
stage
CAD/CAM Textiles(Benetton)
Titanium Watches,Prosthesis
TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO
Degree of Control
Competitive ImpactDeveloped
High
Adapted
Medium
Borrowed
High
High
Medium
Low
SUPPLIER OF COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKING
FROM MAINSTREAM MARKET TO MARKET/TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
AND BACK
• Requested speed and total capacity to 8-12 disc drive : Control Data
• 3.5 inch Disc Drive: Conner and Quantum
• 5.25 inch : Seagate, Tandon, Miniscribe
• 8-12 inch using 5.25 and 3.5 inch architecture
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
• Utility Patent Processes Machine: combination of
elements Article: tangible item Composition of matter
• Design Patent New, original, ornamental
design
• Plant Patent Business processes: Dell’s
build to order
•Copyright
Protect the particular way in which a work is expressed
France life + 50 years
Russia: life + 20 years
Germany : perpetual
UK: 28+14 years
Bern Convention US Europe : life + 70-95-120 from creation
•Trade Marks Digital Millennium Copyright Act(98); Digital Right Management (HW+SW)
Easy of use benefit
Social-personal benefit
PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE (PLC)
Introduction Growth Mature Decline
Sales
Time
INPUT & INDUSTRY-DEMAND STRUCTURE BEHIND PLC
Introduction Growth Mature 1 Mature 2
TechnologyFrequent Changes
Additional Changes in Production
Few Changes
Periodic Changes
Capital Intensity
LowHigh, Obsolescence
High High
Critical
Manpower
InventorManagementFinance
Industry Structure
Techn. Barrier
MergersCompetition
Demand Structure
Specialized
Innovators
Early Majority
Late Majority
Sales
TimeSubstitution
Sales
TimeExtension
Sales
TimeTechnology Change
Sales
TimeMature Extension
VENTURE CAPITAL
Objectives Strategic Financial
tight
loose
Link to operation Capability
Driving advances strategy of current business
Microsoft-Internet new architecture
Enabling Complement strategy
Intel: video, audio…
Emergent
Potential new businesses Intel-Berkeley Networks lower cost switches and routers for communication
Passive Financial return only
Source: Chesbrowgh H.W. “Making Sense of Corporate Venture Capital” Harvar Busienss School piblishing 2002
MARKET & FIRM LIFE CYCLE
Market Phase
Targeted Value
Start up International Global
Functionality
Reliability
Convenience
Price
FIRM-MARKET LIFE CYCLE & INNOVATION STRATEGY
Market Phase
Firm Stage
Emerging Growing Mature
Start up Discontinuous Market & Technology
Discontinuous Product
Discontinuous Product
InternationalDiscontinuous Product & Technology
Current Improvement
Discontinuous Market and Product
GlobalCurrent Improvement
Current Improvement
Discontinuous Manufacturing Product & Technology
FIRM-MARKET LIFE CYCLE & INNOVATION STRATEGY
Market Phase
Firm Stage
Emerging Growing Mature
Start up FunctionalityFunctionalityFunctionality
InternationalReliabilityConvenienceFunctionality
GlobalReliabilityReliabilityConvenience Functionality
ORGANIZATIONAL ARCHITECTURE
Old Organization
• Lack of Integration between Knowledge in each Dpt.
• Difficulty of Involving many people in Discussion
• Middle Managers: Filters & Diffusers of Commands
New Organization
• Employee Competence
• Internal Structure-Company Flow
• External Structure-Customer Interaction
• Middle Managers: Creating new Knowledge
THE OLD ORGANIZATION
C O OC h ie f O p era tion s
O ffice r
C FOC h ie f F in an c ia l
O ffice r
C T OC h ie f Tech n o log y
O ffice r
C IOC h ie f In fo rm ation
O ffice r
R & D Ma rketingMa nufa cturing
H um a n R esourcesSa les
C EOC h ie f E xecu tive O ffice r
RESTRUCTURING ACTIVITIES
Innovation
Knowledge
Operations
Information Flow
Short Run Long Run
THE NEW ORGANIZATION
CEOChef Executive
Officer CKOChief Knowledge
Officer
CINOChief Innovation
Officer
COOChief Operations
Officer
OPERATING,INNOVATION & KNOWLEDGE POWER
Chief Operating Officer - COO
External Structure
Continuous Innovation:
Product Dvt, Manufacturing, Sales, Short term
Chief Innovation Officer -CINO
Internal Structure
Discontinuous Innovation:
Technology, Marketing, Long term
Chief Knowledge Officer-CKO
Employee Competence
Assets Management:
Finance, Knowledge, Human resource