estado plurinacional de bolivia the bolivian economic ... · the bolivian economic performance and...

THE BOLIVIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND

INVESTMENT PROGRAM 2010 - 2015

ESTADO PLURINACIONAL DE BOLIVIA

LUIS ALBERTO ARCE CATACORA

MINISTER OF ECONOMY AND PUBLIC FINANCES

I. The new model economic in Bolivia....................... Diap. 2 II. Bolivian economy performance…….…..………….. Diap. 8 III. Projection – Investment program 2010 - 2015…… Diap. 40 IV. Private investment and the new state political constitution…………………………………………… Diap. 54

Annexes……………………………………………….….. Diap. 58

I. THE NEW ECONOMIC MODEL IN BOLIVIA

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

2

• Nowadays the world not only confronts a financial crisis and its consequences in the real sector, it also confronts:

• A climate crisis • An energy crisis • A food crisis

• In this context it is possible to talk about a structural crisis of capitalism

THE FOUR CRISES OF CAPITALISM M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

3

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

Free market. The market is the mechanism for allocating

resources and the imbalance adjustor. Hypothesis: Efficient

Market

The state intervenes to correct market failures (lack of

redistribution of wealth and transnational monopoly of strategic

companies)

1. 1.

An isolated State. The market is a self-regulated mechanism of the

economic process

2. An active participation of the state in the economy. The state must

intervene in the economy through its seven facets: planner,

entrepreneur, investor, regulator, benefactor, developer, banker

2.

Privatization, the surplus is transferred abroad and without a precautionary management policy

of Natural Resources

Nationalization and control of strategic natural resources

3. 3.

A Primary Exporter Development Pattern

4. A pattern of industrialization and productive development

4.

4

The Neoliberal Economic Model

The Economic Social Communitarian and Productive

Model

Preserving macroeconomic stability as a social asset and promote

economic development

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

High concentration of income, sectors excluded of society

5. Redistributive State 5.

7. 7. Growth depends only on the external demand

Growth based on external and domestic demand

8. 8. Investment depends on external savings, boosting debt and

fiscal deficit

Generation of domestic resources for investment, fiscal surpluses and

lower debt

9. 9. Stagnation, poverty, inequality of wealth and opportunity

Development, redistribution and employment generation

Macroeconomic stability as an end in itself

10. 10.

Economy focused on private initiative

6. The State is the sponsor of a plural economy

6.

5

The Neoliberal Economic Model

The Economic Social Communitarian and Productive

Model

Strategic sectors:

Generators of Surplus

Sectors that generate

income and employment

• Hydrocarbons

• Mining

• Electricity

• Environmental Resources

• Industry, manufacturing and crafts

• Tourism

• Agricultural development

• Housing

• Trade, transport services, other services

Surplus

REDISTRIBUTIVE STATE

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S THE ECONOMIC SOCIAL COMMUNITARIAN

AND PRODUCTIVE MODEL

6

Source: New Political Constitution of the State Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Thursday, april 15th 2010 (Hrs. 20:06)

PRIVATE - Generates employment - Generates production

and services -Strengthening the economic

independency

Promove the integration of various economic forms of

production, aiming to achieve economic

and social development

PLURAL ECONOMY

COMMUNITY

- Generates production and employment

- Principles of Cooperation

SOCIAL COOPERATIVE

- Generates production and employment

-Principles of solidarity work -and cooperation

STATE - Promotor - Organizer

- Redistributor

Complementation of individual interest with

collective welfarel

Role of the State

ECONOMIC GROWTH WELF REDISTRIBUTION

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S PLURAL ECONOMY

7

Source: New Political Constitution of the State Elaborated: Ministry of Economiy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Thursday, april 15th 2010 (Hrs. 20:06)

II. BOLIVIAN ECONOMY PERFORMANCE

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

8

-2,57

2,412,96

3,79

4,645,27

1,65

4,274,674,68

4,364,955,03

0,43

2,51

1,68

2,492,71

4,174,424,804,56

6,15

3,4

-4,00

-3,00

-2,00

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,0019

86

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(p)

2006

(p)

2007

(p)

2008

(p)

2009

(p)

Bolivia: Real GDP growth, 1986 - 2009 (p) (In percent)

(p) Preliminary Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 18:42)

Average 1985 – 2005 2006 (p) 2007 (p) 2008 (p) 2009 (p)

3,00 4,80 4,56 6,15 3,4

9 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S DESPITE OF THE CRISIS, THE BOLIVIAN ECONOMY GROWS

Selected Latin American countries: Real GDP growth, 2009 (p) (In percent)

(p) Preliminary Source: Central banks and statistical institutes in each country Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 18:42) 10 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

THE HIGHEST GDP GROWTH IN THE REGION

-6,5

-3,5

-1,5

-0,2

0,4

0,4

0,9

0,9

2,7

3,4

-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0

México

Paraguay

Chile

Brasil

Colombia

Ecuador

Argentina

Perú

Uruguay

Bolivia

Bolivia: Real GDP composition by economic activity 2000 - 2009 (p)

(In millions of Bs.1990)

(p) Preliminary Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 19th 2010 (Hrs. 09:33) 11 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

17%

13%

11%

11%

9%

8% 7% 5% 3% 2% 13%

3.699 3.798 3.807 3.952 4.173 4.298 4.646 4.929 5.110 5.355

3.178 3.288 3.303 3.591 3.599 3.779 3.940 3.920 4.022 4.170 3.140 3.146 3.047 2.946 2.903 2.913 3.070 3.263 3.415 3.557 2.385 2.457 2.563 2.662 2.770 2.851 2.963 3.066 3.190 3.368 2.024 2.075 2.141 2.214 2.290 2.373 2.459 2.559 2.657 2.829

1.891 1.902 1.943 1.991 2.069 2.133 2.215 2.338 2.450 2.570 2.648 2.760 3.006 3.165 3.474 3.652

3.725 3.846

4.004 3.955

2.100 1.720 1.054

22.356 22.733 23.298 23.929 24.928

26.030 27.279

28.524 30.278

31.294

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(p) 2009(p)

Manufacturing Agriculture and livestock Financial service institutesTransport, storage and comun. Public administration services ComerceMining Hydrocarbons ConstructionElectricity, gas and water Others

755 785

712

714

720 77

2 796

790

806 88

5 953

1.00

0

1.05

0

1.00

1

995

942

895

894 95

0

1.01

0

1.32

8

1.18

2

1.65

1

1.68

3

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(p)

2006

(p)

2007

(p)

2008

(p)

2009

(p)

Bolivia: GDP per capita, 1986 - 2009 (p) (In USD)

Average 1986 - 2005 2005 (p) 2006 (p) 2007 (p) 2008 (p) 2009 (p)

871 1.010 1.182 1.328 1.651 1.683

12 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S


Bolivia: Real growth of households consumption and exports, 1991 - 2009 (p)

(In percent)

13 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S


DOMESTIC DEMAND HAS SUSTAINED GROWTH

4,2

3,6

3,33,3

2,9 2,93,3

5,45,3

2,8 2,3

1,3

2,0 1,9

2,93,3

4,1

5,5

3,7

11,3

8,3

16,6

12,2

5,7

15,0

8,4

4,1

9,1

15,1

5,3

7,3

1,1

-2,1

-12,8

6,5

3,12,2

-10,8

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(p)

2006

(p)

2007

(p)

2008

(p)

2009

(p)

Hou

seho

lds

cons

umpt

ion

expe

nd

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

Exports

Households consumptionExports (Right axis)

Bolivia: Gross fixed capital formation, 1988 - 2009 (p) (In percent of GDP)

14 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S


DOMESTIC DEMAND HAS SUSTAINED GROWTH

8,6 8,1 7,6 8,4 9,2 8,2 7,7 7,5 7,15,8 5,4 5,9 5,0 5,2 5,0 4,7

6,0 6,3 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,0

3,73,4 5,0

5,86,5

7,25,9 7,2 8,7

13,2

18,1

13,9

12,6

8,310,7

8,9 6,9 7,06,9

6,97,8 7,6

12,311,6

12,6

14,215,7 15,4

13,514,7

15,8

19,0

23,4

19,8

17,6

13,6

15,7

13,612,9 13,2 13,8

14,816,516,6

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,019

88

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(p)

2006

(p)

2007

(p)

2008

(p)

2009

(p)

PrivatePublic

10,66

21,51

16,5618,01

14,52

10,469,31

8,52

12,58

7,956,73

4,393,13 3,41

0,922,45

3,94 4,624,91 4,95

11,85

0,69

11,73

0,260,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,019

85

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

66 8.171

Mar

15 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 18:42)

SHARP DECLINE IN INFLATION

Bolivia: Anual inflation rate, 1985 – March 2010 (In percent)

12-M

onth

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0E

ne-0

5

Abr

-05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Ene

-06

Abr

-06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Ene

-07

Abr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Ene

-08

Abr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Ene

-09

Abr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Ene

-10

Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia EcuadorMéxico Paraguay Perú Uruguay Venezuela

Selected Latin American countries: 12-Month inflation rate January 2005 – March 2010 (p)

(In percent)

(p) Preliminary Source: Central banks and statistical institutes in each country Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Friday, april 16th 2010 (Hrs. 09:05) 16 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

DECLINING INFLATION : MORE THAN IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Dic-05 Dic-06 Dic-07 Dic-08 Dic-09 Mar-10Chile 3,66 2,57 7,82 7,09 -1,38 0,23Bolivia 4,91 4,95 11,73 11,85 0,26 0,69Perú 1,50 1,13 3,93 6,65 0,25 0,76Colombia 4,85 4,48 5,69 7,67 2,00 1,84Ecuador 3,13 2,87 3,33 8,83 4,31 3,35Paraguay 9,85 12,48 5,97 7,50 1,86 4,11México 3,33 4,05 3,76 6,53 3,57 4,97Brasil 5,69 3,14 4,46 5,90 4,31 5,17Uruguay 4,90 6,38 8,50 9,19 5,90 7,12Argentina 12,33 9,84 8,47 7,24 7,69 9,66Venezuela 14,36 16,97 22,46 30,90 25,06 26,24

1.40

0

2.01

1

2.24

0 3.48

3

2.08

6

362

372

351

794 1.

062

1.52

1

1.49

8

945

1.12

4 1.33

1

1.65

4

1.49

6

672 570819 851 786

1.138 1.254905756

5.366

1.3201.2461.590

2.195

2.867

4.088

4.822

6.933

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.00019

85

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009

2010

Agriculture and livestockManufacturingMineral extractionHydrocarbons extraction

Bolivia: Exports by economic activity 1985 – 2009, Accumulated January – February 2009 - 2010 (p)

(In millions of USD)

-23%

44%

18%

43%

Average 1985 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p)

1.138 4.088 4.822 6.933 5.366

17 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

Jan-Feb

20%

(p) Preliminary Nota: It does not include personal effects and re-exports Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 5 2010 (Hrs. 11:02)

282

340

389

506

413

471

410

374

1.11

9

900604

616 73

8 892

743 93

2

870

926

2.59

9

2.28

0

535 65

9 755 1.

007

919

607

418

524

1.31

5

1.22

5

837

490

524

403

359 36

5

372

862 997 1.

281

1.46

7 1.77

095

2

946

611

504

458

7039941.1301.1771.196

1.4341.657

1.926

2.4512.0982.020

1.7081.8321.6921.920

2.440

2.926

5.100

4.467

692 700

3.588

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009

2010

Capital goodsRaw materials and intermediate productConsumer goodsOthers

Bolivia: Imports by economic use or destiny (CUODE) 1990 – 2009, Accumulated January – February 2009 - 2010 (p)


-12%

42%

23%

20%

Average 1985 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p)

1.415 2.926 3.588 5.100 4.467

18 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

Jan-Feb

1%

(p) Preliminary Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 5 2010 (Hrs. 11:02)

253

-98

-357 -368

-72 -252

-361

-654

-1.126

-693 -545

-355 -457

-16

345508

1.958

986

74219

1.3021.306

-1.500

-1.000

-500

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009

2010

Bolivia: Trade balance 1990 – 2009, Accumulated January - February 2009 – 2010 (p)


-50% 50% Average 1985 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-201 1.306 1.302 1.958 986

19 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

196%

Jan-Feb (p) Preliminary Note: For the calculation, the exports include personal effects and re- exports Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economic and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 5 2010 (Hrs. 11:02)

Selected Latin American countries: Nominal exchange rate index, January 2003 - 13 April 2010 (Hrs. 17:35)

(January 2003 = 100)

(p) Preliminary Source: Bloomberg, Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) on information from Bloomberg, Central Bank of Uruguay Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 18:42)

Venezuela

Arge

ntin

a, B

oliv

ia, B

rasi

l, C

hile

, Col

ombi

a, P

erú

and

Uru

guay

1

3Abr

-10

20 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

110,0

120,0En

e-03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Jul-0

3Se

p-03

Nov

-03

Ene-

04M

ar-0

4M

ay-0

4Ju

l-04

Sep-

04N

ov-0

4En

e-05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5Se

p-05

Nov

-05

Ene-

06M

ar-0

6M

ay-0

6Ju

l-06

Sep-

06N

ov-0

6En

e-07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7Se

p-07

Nov

-07

Ene-

08M

ar-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep-

08N

ov-0

8En

e-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Ene-

10M

ar-1

0

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay Venezuela (Right axis)

8.4478.580

1.123

7.722

1.714

3.178

5.319

-5000

5001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.5005.0005.5006.0006.5007.0007.5008.0008.5009.000

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Bolivia: Central Bank’s net international reserves 1976 – March 2010 (p)


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar-2010

1.714 3.178 5.319 7.722 8.580 8.447

2.142

2.403

1.464

858

(p) Preliminary Source: Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 17:28) 21 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

HIGH LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES

Latin American countries: Net International Reserves 2008 - 2009 (p)

(In percent of GDP)

(p) Preliminary Source: Central banks in each country Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 6 2010 (Hrs. 19:25)

22 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN THE REGION, IN TERMS OF GDP

6,8

9,9

10,5

11,1

15,9

16,1

16,9

25,4

26,0

28,4

8,2

13,2

7,8

10,0

14,3

13,1

13,7

19,8

24,5

17,9

46,649,8

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0

Ecuador

Venezuela

México

Colombia

Argentina

Brasil

Chile

Uruguay

Perú

Paraguay

Bolivia

20082009

10 13 36 30 35 66 94 120 122 128

372472

599

703

195

83

-291

278362

508423

674

734

1.0081.023

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.20019

85

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

(p)

2007

(p)

2008

(p)

2009

(p)

Bolivia: Net foreign direct investment, 1985 - 2009 (p) (In millions of USD)

Average 1985 – 2005: USD 296 millions

Average 2006 – 2009: USD 393 millions

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

23

(p) Preliminary Source: Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 17:28)

POSITIVE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN 2009

1.96

6

1.46

0

1.27

7

972

3.27

6

2.67

4

2.10

0

1.37

7

3.12

3

2.79

8

2.20

5

2.01

83.731

8.735

7.277

5.846

4.579

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000D

ic-0

5E

ne-0

6Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Abr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Ago

-06

Sep

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dic

-06

Ene

-07

Feb-

07M

ar-0

7A

br-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7A

go-0

7S

ep-0

7O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ic-0

7E

ne-0

8Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Abr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Ago

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dic

-08

Ene

-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9A

br-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9A

go-0

9S

ep-0

9O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ic-0

9E

ne-1

0Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

OthersTime

SavingCurrency

Bolivia: Financial System deposits(1) December 2005 – March 2010


24 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

24%

20%

28%

23%

37%

36%

4%

20%

27%

48%

4%

23%

(1) Note: Corresponds to the private sector deposits Source: Financial System Supervisory Authority (ASFI) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Wednesday, april 14 2010 (Hrs. 20:51)

3,4

10,1

Mar-105.435

Mar-094.748

Mar-084.081

Mar-063.111

Mar-073.432

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000D

ic-0

5En

e-06

Feb-

06M

ar-0

6Ab

r-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Ago-

06Se

p-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dic

-06

Ene-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Abr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Ag

o-07

Sep-

07O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ic-0

7En

e-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ab

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Ago-

08Se

p-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dic

-08

Ene-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Abr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9Ag

o-09

Sep-

09O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ic-0

9En

e-10

Feb-

10M

ar-1

0

In m

illio

ns o

f USD

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

In percent

Bank Private Financial Funds Cooperative Mutual Defaulted loans (Right axis)

Bolivia: Financial System loans and non performing loans December 2005 – March 2010


25 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

16%

14%

19% 10%

Source: Financial System Supervisory Authority (ASFI) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Wednesday, april 14 2010 (Hrs. 20:51)

Bolivia: Remonetization of the Financial System deposits and loans, 1995 – March 2010

(In percent)

26 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S SHARP DECLINE IN DOLLARIZATION – REMONETIZATION OF THE ECONOMY

Source: Financial System Supervisory Authority (ASFI) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Wednesday, april 14 2010 (Hrs. 20:51)

14 13

7 6 5 5 6 6 710

16

23

36

46 47 48

8

15

20

4440

35

42333443330

10

20

30

40

50

6019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Mar

-10

DepositsLoans

-1,4-2,1-2,4

-1,5-0,4

-1,3-2,1-2,2-2,7

-4,9-6,4

-5,6

-17,5

-9,8

-2,3

-8,3

-5,9-5,6-4,4-4,2-4,4

-3,0-1,8-1,9

-3,3-4,7

-3,5-3,7

-6,8-7,9

-5,5

0,20,1

3,24,5

1,7

-2,2

-30,6

-22,3

-6,1

-8,8

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

519

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

10

Bolivia: Fiscal balance, 1970 – March 22 2010 (p) (In percent of GDP)

(p) Preliminary Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, DGAPF, DGAT, and Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

Average 1985 - 2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 22-Mar 2010

- 5,0% + 4,5% + 1,7% + 3,2% + 0,1% + 0,2%

2

2-M

ar

2,4%

27 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S FISCAL SURPLUS SINCE 2006: FOUR CONSECUTIVE YEARS

315420

532481 513 520

589 548505 531

583639

585500

602 629

879

1.005

1.3511.439

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.60019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

28 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

40%

34%

14%

Average 1987 – 2005: $us 497 millions

Average 2006 – 2009: $us 1.169 millions

7%

Bolivia: Public investment, 1990 – 2009 (p) (In millons of USD)

RECORD LEVEL IN PUBLIC INVESTMENT

(p) Preliminary Source: Viceministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Wednesday, april 14 2010 (Hrs. 15:17)

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S Bolivia: Public investment financing 1990 – 2009 (p)

(In percent)

29

DOMESTIC FINANCING OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT RISES

(p) Preliminary Source: Viceministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Wednesday, april 14 2010 (Hrs. 15:17)

72

34

59

41

54

46

28

66

41

59

46

54

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

7519

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Domestic sources

External sources

288

682

754

912 1.16

83.

156

3.15

1

1.67

6

1.96

0

2.33

0

4.324

1.167957

760601

402

1.2541.128

1.415

1.964

2.642

3.084

4.063

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.50019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

IDH

Tax revenues without IDH

Bolivia: Tax revenues, 1990 - 2009 (p) (In millions of USD)

(p) Preliminary Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, VPT and National Taxes Service (SIN) y National Aduana Customs of Bolivia (ANB) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

Average 1990 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1.018 2.642 3.084 4.063 4.324

30 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S CONTINUOUS GROWTH OF TAX REVENUES

Bolivia: External public debt, 1993 – March 2010 (p) (In percent of GDP)

(p) Preliminary Note: It does not incorporate FMI SDR allocations Source: Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13) 31 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

Mar

DECLINING DEBT

69,9

75,071,4

62,9

57,255,3

63,7

57,6

51,9

28,5

53,2 55,3 55,754,9

16,914,015,114,8

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Bolivia: Domestic public debt of the TGN, 1993 – Marzo 2010 (p) (In percent of GDP)

(p) Preliminary Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, DGCP Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13) 32 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

Mar

13,814,8 13,9 13,8 13,3 13,7

16,4

26,724,8 24,7

23,123,7

31,231,2

18,9

25,3

27,5

30,1

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

DECLINING DEBT

Bolivia: Urban unemployment rate, 2000 – 2009 (p) (In percent)

(p) Preliminary (e) Estimated Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) and UDAPE Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13) 33 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

8,508,69 8,71

9,29

8,157,99

7,67

6,696,83

7,46

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

9,0

9,5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(e)

Selected Latin American countries: Unemployment rates 2009 (p)

(In percent)

(p) Preliminary (e) Estimated Note: Urban unemployment rate, except Chile and Venezuela national unemployment rate Source: National statistic institutes in each country Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13) 34 M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE REGION

64,8 63,6 63,566,4

63,1 63,3 63,260,6 59,9 60,1 59,3 58,3

51,954,5

51,454,5 54,3 53,9 54,4

51,1 50,3 50,9 51,2 50,1

83,9

78,0

84,087,0

77,7 78,8 77,7 77,6 76,5 77,374,3 73,8

40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

70,0

75,0

80,0

85,0

90,0

1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-2004

2005 2006 2007 2008(e)

2009(e)

NationalUrbanRural

Bolivia: Moderate poverty rate, 1996 – 2009 (e) (In percent)

2005 2009(e) VariationNational 60,6 58,3 -2,3

Urban 51,1 50,1 -1,0Rural 77,6 73,8 -3,8

35 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S POVERTY REDUCTION

(e) Estimated Source: UDAPE Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13)

41,238,1

40,745,2

38,8 39,5

34,538,2 37,7 37,7

32,7 31,9

23,7 24,9 23,527,9 26,2 25,7

23,0 24,3 23,4 23,7 22,0 20,7

67,7

59,0

69,9

75,0

59,762,3

53,7

62,9 62,3 63,9

53,3 52,7

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-2004

2005 2006 2007 2008(e)

2009(e)

NationalUrban

Rural

Bolivia: Extreme poverty rate, 1996 - 2009 (e) (En percent)

2005 2009(e) VariationNational 38,2 31,9 -6,3

Urban 24,3 20,7 -3,6Rural 62,9 52,7 -10,2

36 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

(e) Estimated Source: UDAPE Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 12 2010 (Hrs. 12:13)

POVERTY REDUCTION

A. INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION TO THE BOLIVIAN ECONOMIC POLICIES

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

37

Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION TO THE BOLIVIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

International Organisms

38 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

FMI: “Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere" presentation in Bolivia, and Article IV Consultation. The IMF described as prudent and wise the economic policy implemented in the country, for the fiscal stimulus applied in the crisis period

October, 2009

October 2009 and February 2010

November, 2009

December, 2009

BID: Emphasizes the positive growth in 2009, and the least impact of the crisis in the country, in relation to Latin America and the Caribbean

World Bank: Emphasizes the "appropriate macroeconomic management, and achieving the highest growth rate among countries in Latin America”

CEPAL: Positioned to Bolivia as the fastest growing economy in 2009 and among the principals in 2010

Credit Rating Agencies

39 MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

Fitch Rating, raised the rating to "B" from "B-“, with stable outlook

September, 2009

October, 2009 Moody’s Investors Service, raised the rating to "B2" from "B3“, with stable outlook

The sustained of macroeconomic stability and favourable public and external debt ratios, international reserves accumulation and fiscal saving, supported this rating

Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

Rating DateB 08-Sep-2009B- 17-Mar-2004

Rating DateB2 28-Sep-2009B3 16-Apr-2003B1 29-May-1998

INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION TO THE BOLIVIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

III. PROJECTION – INVESTMENT PROGRAM 2010 - 2015

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

40

PRIORITIZED INVESTMENT M

INIS

TER

IO D

E EC

ON

OM

ÍA Y

FIN

AN

ZAS

PÚB

LIC

AS

41

INVESTMENT PROJECTS BY ECONOMIC SECTOR


(p) Preliminary Source: Ministry of Development Planning Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 19th 2010 (Hrs. 10:35)

Sectors Investment amount (e) % Part.

TOTAL 32.837 100,0

Mining 7.294 22,2 Hydrocarbons 7.048 21,5 Electrical energy 6.585 20,1 Transports 5.597 17,0 Industrial production 931 2,8 Housing 680 2,1 Space and comunication program 460 1,4 Water and basic sanitation 386 1,2 Telecomunication 306 0,9 Education 280 0,9 Rural development 256 0,8 Extreme poverty eradication 251 0,8 Dams and irrigation 91 0,3 Tourism 69 0,2 Health 68 0,2 Public safety 58 0,2 Compatriot plan 43 0,1 Science and tecnology 40 0,1 Others 2.392 7,3

Achacachi

Vinto

Bermejo

El Alto

Caracollo

San Buenaventura

San José Misicuni

Cbba. Corocoro

Huanuni Zinc

Litio

Gran Chaco

Rositas

Santa Cruz El Mutún

Rio Grande

Cachuela Esperanza

El Bala

Miguillas

Villa Tunari

Challapata

Carrasco

Mining Lithium – Uyuni (I) Iron – Mutún (I) Zinc – Potosí, Oruro (PreI) Huanuni (I) Foundry Vinto (I) Complex Corocoro (F)

Hydrocarbons Industrialization Refinement: Santa Cruz y Cochabamba (PreI)

Ammonia/Urea: Cochabamba (PreI)

Separation plant: Rio Grande (Santa Cruz) y Tarija (PreI)

Pre-fabricated houses: Caracollo (I)

Gas to liquids, GTL: Gran Chaco (San Alberto, Sábalo, Margarita) (PreI)

Hydroelectric power plants For export: Cachuela Esperanza, El Bala y Rositas (PreI) Domestic Market: Miguillas, Misicuni y San José (PreI)

Hydrocarbons, Mining and

Energy

CARTONBOL (O)

LACTEOSBOL (O) PAPELBOL (O)

Public Companies

ECEBOL (I)

Bolivian Forest Enterprise (EFB) (PreI)

Bolivian Almond Enterprise (EBA) (F)

AZUCARBOL (I)

San Beunaventura Sugar Refinery (PreI)

Pre-investment studies(PreI)

Investment (I)

Operation (O)

PRIORITY: LAYING THE FOUNDATIONS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

42

Potencial petroleum area Traditional area Petroleum exploration Petroleum exploitation New exploration areas Madidi, Chepite, Chispani Aguaragüe North and South Camatindi, San Telmo

Production 7 wells in Margarita y Huacaya (Repsol) 2 vertical aditional wells in Incahuasi (E&P) San Alberto Plant North Fields

THE CHALLENGE OF INDUSTRIALIZATION

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

43

Hydrocarbons: Exploration and production

Refinement Santa Cruz, Cochabamba

Industrialization Ammonia/Urea: Cochabamba Provincia Gran Chaco (fields of San Alberto Sábalo, Margarita (GTL))

Separation plants Santa Cruz, Tarija

Refinement and industrialization

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

44

HYDROCARBONS INVESTMENT (In millions of USD)


Projects Investment amount (e)

HIDROCARBUROS 7,048

- Hydrocarbon exploration 852- Hydrocarbon exploitation 648- Separation GLP Plant 450- Converting the energy matrix - natural gas distribution system

748

- Hydrocarbons industrialization 1,410- Hydrocarbons transportation 2,093- Hydrocarbons storage 62- Hydrocarbons refinement 715- Oil houses construction (YPFB - PEQUINVEN)

70

- Hydrocarbons Research and Technological Innovation Centre (CITH) 1

Corocoro hydrometallurgical complex Inversión (50.000 MT fin copper/year)

AUSMELT VINTO Smelter

New Huanuni’s mining refinery (3.000 TN/day)

Zinc hydrometallurgical plants (Oruro / Potosí)

Iron → El Mutún

Lithium carbonate pilot plant (40 MT/day)

Large scale production of lithium carbonate (400.000 MT/year)

Lithium Chloride / Metal Lithium

Lithium battery industry

Electric Car Industry

Mining

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

45


Mining

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

46

LITHIUM INDUSTRIALIZATION “SALAR DE UYUNI”

LITHIUM PROJECT PHASES

1. Pilot plant lithium carbonate installation 2. Large scale production of lithium carbonate 3. Industrial manufacture of high tech batteries

based on lithium metal

PROJECT DESCRIPTION According the United States Geological Survey the lithium reserves in Bolivia are 5,4 million tonnes.

Among the countries with the highest lithium demanding are United States, China, England, Germany and Japan. The price this metal fluctuates around $ 4.300 per tonne

World Lithium Reserve Base(1), 2007 (In millions of tons)

Lithium reserve

% Percent

Bolivia 5,4 49,1Chile 3,0 27,3China 1,1 10,0Brazil 0,9 8,3United States 0,4 3,7Canada 0,4 3,3Australia 0,3 2,4Zimbawe 0,0 0,2World total (rounded) 11,0 100,0

(1) That part of an identified reosurce that meets specified minimium physical and chemical criteria related to current mining and production practices, including those for grade, quality, thickness, and depht. Source: United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2007

MINING INVESTMENT (In millions of USD)



MINING 7.294

- Lithium industrialization - Salar de Uyuni (Potosí) - basic chemicals 2.500

- Two zinc's hidrometallurgical plants (Oruro - Potosi) 500

- Sulfuric acid production plant installation 120- Ausmelt furnace installation (Metallurgy company Vinto - Oruro) 20

- Metal Recovery Karachipampa (Potosí) 140Mecanization program's of statal mining- Elaboration of geological maps 40- Mechanization of statal mining 115- Mutun exploitation (50% not concessioned) 3.645- Corocoro Kores (Foreign direct investment) 214

PRODUCTION 300

Lithium Battery Plants- Lithium batteries production industrial plant 300

PROJECTS FOR EXPORT

HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTS (In millions of USD)

PROJECTS FOR DOMESTIC MARKET

Cachuela Esperanza

El Bala

Rositas

Miguillas

Misicuni San José

Energy

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

47

Installed power

(MW)

Revenue / year (e)

Misicuni (Cochabamba) 80 10San José (Chapare) 120 25Miguillas (Inquisivi, La Paz) 250 95

Installed power

(MW)

Revenue / year (e)

Cachuela Esperanza (Beni) 800 359Rositas (Río Grande,Santa Cruz) 400 146El Bala (North La Paz) 1600 619


PROJECTS FOR EXPORT

PROJECT FOR DOMESTIC MARKET

Cachuela Esperanza

El Bala

Rositas

Miguillas

Misicuni San José

Energy

MIN

ISTE

RIO

DE

ECO

NO

MÍA

Y F

INA

NZA

S PÚ

BLI

CA

S

48

ELECTRICAL ENERGY INVESTMENT (In millions of USD)



ELECTRICAL ENERGY 6.585

- Cachuela Esperanza (Beni) hydroelectrical construction 2.500

- Rositas (Rio Grande, Santa Cruz) hydroelectrical construction 640

- El Bala (North La Paz) hydroelectrical construction 2.400

- Miguilla (Inquisivi, La Paz) central hydroelectrical construction 375

- Laguna Colorada (Potosí) geothermal plant construction 350

- San José (Cochabamaba) hydroelectrical construction 195

- Wind energy generation 125

Existing roads

Perú

Brazil

Puerto Ustariz

Yacuiba

Guayaramerín Cobija

La Paz

Villazon Paraguay Chile

S. I. Moxos

Villa Tunari

Government Program

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ROAD INTEGRATION

49

ROAD CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT (In millions of USD)

Chile


ROADS AND BRIDGES 1,637

Corridor I: East - West (Bolivia, Brasil and Chile)- San Matías - Concepción (paving) 292

Corridor III: West - North - Yucumo - San Borja 24 - Guayaramerín - San Javier 18 - Guayaramerín - San Javier 285 - Porvenir - El Choro 162

Paved roads- Guayanamerin - Cachuela Esperanza road (Pando) 20- Uyuni - Hito LX road (Potosí) 153- San Juan - Laguna Colorada road (Potosí) 117- Pando paved road, connecting to Brazil 250- Puerto Ustarez - Rodonia (Brasil) and other roads (Beni) 163

Strategic bridge for regional integration: 6.160 m 154

VIAL CORRIDORS

Corridor 1. East - West (Bolivia, Brazil and Chile) 910 Km

Corridor 2. North - South (Port Ustariz - Yacuiba) 128 Km

Corridor 3. West - North (La Paz-Riberalta-Guayaramerín-Cobija) 1.617 Km

Corridor 4. West - South (La Paz - Bermejo-Villazón) 329 Km

Corridor 5. East - West (Central-South) (Chile, Bolivia and Paraguay) 209 Km

Existing roads Government Program

Villa Tunari – San Ignacio de Moxos 295 Km

Perú

Brazil

Paraguay Chile

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Integrated Roads

ROAD INTEGRATION

Oriental Railway network (Existing railway)

Government Program West railway network (Interconnection zone)

Ayquile

Warnes

Proposed railway Government Program

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Trains

RAYLWAY INTERCONNECTION

RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT (In millions of USD)


TRAINS 3.070

Railway interconnection- Interconection of West and East Network railway project 2.630- Interconection of West and East Network railwey project (pre-investment) 3

- Motacucito - Mutún 45- Motacucito - Mutún (pre-investment) 2

Urban electric railwey- Cochabamba - Quillacollo 20- La Paz - El Alto 23- Bimodal Santa Cruz - Plan 3.000 terminal 9- El Alto - Oruro (bullet train) 329- El Alto - Oruro (bullet train) (pre-investment) 11

Paved road (ESM, JSB and ABC) Puerto Suárez – Mutún – Puerto Busch

Railroad Puerto Suárez – Mutún – Puerto Busch

Waterway Mutún – Río Paraguay (Dionisio Foianini)

WATERWAY Mutún – Puerto Busch: 110 Km Puerto Busch – Puerto Nueva Palmira: 2.000 Km TOTAL: 2.110 Km aprox.

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Mutún – Puerto Busch waterway

BOLIVIA: CONNECTED TO THE ATLANTIC

WATERWAY MUTÚN – PUERTO BUSCH Investment amount (e): USD 450 millions

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WHEAT (Hectares)

Potential wheat production

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

53

RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY INVESTMENT

(In millions of USD) Projects Investment

amount (e)

RURAL DEVELOPMENT 256

Secure agricultural production- Inorganic fertilizers production 6- Universal Agricultural Insurance 60- III National Agricultural Census 14

Food fair price- National Food Security Plan 10- National wheat production program 8- EMAPA 9- Greenhouses 21- Promote agricultural production capacities for food security program (INIAF) 31

- Milk production and beef encourage program 7Agroecological production

- Organic fertilizers production 7- CRIAR (Rural Food Initiatives Creation) consolidation

30

- EMPODERAR (Rural Development self managed organized enterprise) consolidation

10

- Ecological production national programme 7Early warning to agricultural sector (Risk management)

3

- Rural contingency national plan (Agriculture component) for risk management

5

- SUSTENTAR, Sustainable forestry program 7- Sugar cane production - San Buenaventura 21

IV. PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND CONSTITUTION OF THE PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIA

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INVESTMENT: CONSTITUTION OF THE PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIA

Article 308.-

I. The State recognizes, respects and protects private initiative, to contribute to the economic, social development and to strengths the country economic independency.

II. It guarantees freedom of enterprise and the full exercise of the business activities, which will be regulated by law.

Article 351.- I. The state will assume control and management on the exploration,

exploitation, industrialization, transport and commercialization of the strategic natural resources through public cooperatives or communitarian, which entities could hire private firms and establish joint ventures.

II. The state may subscribe contracts of association with legal entities, Bolivian or foreign, to the exploitation of natural resources. The economic profits must ensured to be reinvested in the country.

Source: New Political Constitution of the State Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

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Article 351.- III. The management and administration of natural resources will be

conducted ensuring the control and social participation in the design of sectorial policies. In the management and administration may be established joint entities, with state of the and the society representation, and be will precautionary collective welfare.

IV. The private, Bolivian or foreign companies, will pay taxes and royalties when they intervene in the exploitation of the natural resources, and the collects to which they give place will not be refundable. The royalties for the utilization of the natural resources are a right and a compensation for his exploitation, and they will be regulated by the Constitution and the law.

INVESTMENT: CONSTITUTION OF THE PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIA

Source: New Political Constitution of the State Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Lats update: Tuesday, april 13 2010 (Hrs. 19:18)

Gracias…

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ANEXOS

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58

A. Real GDP growth by economic activity………………….. Diap. 59

A. REAL GDP GROWTH

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3.6

3.7

4.1

4.8

4.9

5.6

6.1

6.5

9.9

10.8

-13.52.3

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Hydrocarbons

Restaurants and hotels

Community, social, personal and domestic services Agriculture and livestock

Financial service institutes

Manufacturing

Comerce

Transport, storage and comun.

Electricity, gas and water

Public administration services

Mining

Contruction

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S Bolivia: Real GDP growth by economic activity, 2009 (p)

(En porcentaje)

GDP Growth: 3,4%

INCIDENCE

0,34 0,62

0,57 0,12

0,59 0,40

0,81 0,47 0,49

0,15 0,06

0,89

(p) Preliminary Source: National Statistic Institute (INE) Elaborated: Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Fiscal Analysis Network (RAF) Last update: Monday, april 19th 2010 (Hrs. 09:33)

estado plurinacional de bolivia the bolivian economic ... · the bolivian economic performance and...

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