establishing a climate smart agricultural world
DESCRIPTION
What will it take to establish a climate smart agricultural world? Presentation on the problems, solutions and key challenges in Climate Smart Agriculture. Presentation made in the Wayamba Conference in Sri Lanka, August 2014.TRANSCRIPT
Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
The Challenge
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for crop suitability
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
In order to meet global demands, we
will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
Why is CSA important? – Food Security
2013
Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-MaxYield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat and maize
yields: response to warming
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas
emissions (2010)
Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice,
livestock, energy)
Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands
Industrial processes Waste
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag Energy
70
11
4 2
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
2010 2050 (Business as usual)
2050 (2°C target)
12 15
36
70
Non-agricultural emissions
Agricultural and land-use change emissions
>70%
48
85
21
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate
change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,
and rural livelihoods.
Can we breed our way out of the problem?
Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the
world will experience novel combinations of climate
And also non-linear responses of crops to climates
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
Can we breed our way out of the problem?
Message 3:Different breeding challenges for
different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!
CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services
landscape
crops
livestock
fish
food system
services
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
CSA options for landscapes
landscape
Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)
Manage livestock & wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of trees and perennials
Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Create diversity of land uses
Harvest floods & manage
groundwater
Address coastal
salinity & sea surges
Protect against large-scale erosion
Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia
Photos: W. Bewket, AAU
190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit
Cut-and-carry feed for livestock
380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost
CSA options for crops & fields
crops
Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing
Improved water use efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-harvesting)
Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases
Agroforestry, intercropping &
on-farm biodiversity
Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees
NIGERBringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’
5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established
Reduces drought impacts
Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
CSA options for livestock
livestock
High-quality diets that increase conversion
efficiency and reduce emissions
Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at
different ages
Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of
water points
Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds
Improved pasture
management
Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
45% higher stocking densityno increase in pasture areabetter pasture quality40% reduction in emissionsagriculture decoupled from
deforestation
CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture
fish
Better physical defences against
sea surges
Quota schemes matched to
monitoring of fish stocks
Greater energy efficiency in harvesting
Rehabilitation of mangroves &
breeding grounds
Less dependence of aquaculture on
marine fish feed
Reducing losses and wastage
CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative and efficient use of by-products
Less energy-intensity in
fertilizer production
Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Changing diets
Greater attention to food safety
Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer
wastage
Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”in United Kingdom
13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion
national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
CSA options for services
services
Monitoring & data for food security,
climate & ecosystems
Early warning systems & weather forecasts
Mobile phone, radio & other extension or
information for farmers
Research that links farmers &
science
Weather insurance &
micro-finance
Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for
climate shocks
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation
Reduces risks
Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal
3 million farmers get forecasts70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
2. But major scaling up
is needed
1.5 billion
people depend on Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more People by 2030
1.4 billion living in Poverty
14% more Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA
Mitigation targets?
Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World
DC Targets (2035)• 22% reduction in agricultural
emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline
• 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends
Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity
So what are the targets?
Are these targets insurmountable?“63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
19951999
20032007
20112015
20192023
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Food demandGrain yield per haGDP Cell phone penetration
Rel
ative
201
2 =
100%
Global Harvest Initiative 2013FAOSTATWorld Bank/Standard CharteredGSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa
35
Requires a comprehensive approach• Partnerships: research and development, science
and policy, public and private• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising yield
• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering
• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
t CO
2-eq
/ ha
*sea
son
4.93.9
-20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-22%-28%
6.04.7
6.44.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-Autumn
Winter-Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWD Conventional
Addressing constraintsFrom national level…
to implementation at provincial level….
Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
Coffee-banana intercropping
Monocrops Intercrops0
0.51
1.52
2.5
Arabica systems
Arabica Banana
Arabica(t/ha)
Banana(tenth t/ha)
Monocrops Intercrops0
0.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
Robusta systems
Robusta Banana
Robusta(t/ha)
Banana(tenth t/ha)
2268 4307$ ha yr 1286 1770$ ha yr
More carbon in the system
DiversificationDecreases drought impacts
Increased incomeEnhanced food security
Leb by
Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
Maximizing productivity in agricultural systems. Identifying the combination of factors that lead to high and low productivities (empirical approaches)
What defines yield?
51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice
PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
33
33
33
Above
Normal
Below
38
31
31
2227
51
37
33
31
39
33
28
Agroclimatic Seasonal
forecasting
+ + =
Climate Soil Crop management productivity/ha (including varieties)
First, understand the relationships
Relationships
=Robust decision making for Climate Smart Agriculture
+
Forecasts
+ Empirical models
Mechanistic models
+
Advisory Systems
Pulling the pieces togetherCl
imat
e re
silie
nce
Baseline
Adapted technologies
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
+Enabling
environment NAPs and NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
Global learning
• Challenge immense, but not insurmountable
• CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up:– Technical– Financial– Policy
• Two key factors for success:– Successfully building a business case for CSA– Addressing the constraints head on
• Agricultural scientists need to support the drive towards CSA– Mainstreaming productivity, adaptation and
mitigation into next generation of ag technologies
In summary….
50
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