espon 2.1.1 territorial impact of eu transport and ten policies roberta capello
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ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies Roberta Capello. Seminario ESPON 15 gennaio 2004 Roma,Università di Tor Vergata. Aims of the project. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ESPON 2.1.1
Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies
Roberta Capello
Seminario ESPON15 gennaio 2004
Roma,Università di Tor Vergata
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Aims of the project
to provide a cost assessment of future efficiency and cohesion ICTs policies, through the construction of policy scenarios and the measurement of the impact of efficiency and cohesion policies on regional growth and disparities.
to detect different regional responses to ICTs policies, by highlighting different behavioural attitudes and reacting capacities of regions in front of alternative ICTs policy scenarios.
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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies
Available results:– maps on
• accessibility absolute growth rate
• Internet absolute growth rate
• pc GDP average annual growth rate
(at 2020 in the three scenarios)– cohesion indicators
• Lorenz curves• Gini coefficients
• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual growth– typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact
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STIMA model structureChange ofICTs
investments
Change of ICTs endowment
Quasiproduction function
Change of GDP per capita
Change of absolute GDP
Change of virtual accessibility
Change in regional disparities
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Data Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial data on ICTs
– at Nuts 3: no availability
– at Nuts 2: EOS Gallup Survey 1999
• survey conducted in households in the 15 Countries of the European Union
• data collected through face-to-face interviews
• by means of a quantitative questionnaire
• on a representative sample in each Member State
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EOS Gallup sample
Country Sampling Plan Real Sample Nuts level used for sampling Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1
Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3
Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1
Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2
España 5000 5000 NUTS 2
France 5000 5301 NUTS 1
Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3
Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1
Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1
Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1
Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1
Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2
Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2
Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2
United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1
Total 43550 44340
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Scenario Hypotheses Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional distribution of
EU ICTs investments
– among regions
• lagging vs advanced
– among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG Information society)
• accessibility
• internet connections
• high-tech employment
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Distribution of ICTs investments according to different ICTs policy scenarios
ICTs Scenarios Regions ICTs Policies
Scenario AIndiscriminate scenario
All regions Investments distributed according toregional population
All regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment
Lagging regions 20% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation
Lagging regions 70% Accessibility30% Internet
Scenario BEfficiency scenario
Non lagging regions 80% of total InvestmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of non lagging regionspopulation
Non lagging regions 30% Accessibility70% Internet
Scenario CCohesion scenario
Lagging regions 100% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation
Lagging regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment
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Forecasting methodology
2% of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU member states
estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in accessibility, internet connections and high-tech employment
forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in 20 years
cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini coefficient)
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Scenario A: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario B: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario C: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Cohesion indicators
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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact
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Further Research Model refinement of STIMA according to data availability
Model integration of SASI and STIMA
Qualitative analysis of specific policies like deregulation