esd and creating a sustainable future implications and opportunities: the bonn declaration 2009

ESD and Creating a Sustainable Future

Implications and Opportunities:The Bonn Declaration 2009

Charles HopkinsUNESCO & UN University ChairsYork University, Toronto, Canada

From: Steffen et al. 2004

Source: UN Population Division Population Reference BureauOur pressures on the planet have increased with our numbers1 billion (1800)4 billion (1975)2 billion (1920)6.6 billion (2008)

Chart1

300000646475064647506464750

680000678143168429236903276

980000705458472194317382434

1650000728014875778897873172

2519470747142679052398336867

2757399761808381991048784155

3023812771242384632659237907

3337974775374587013199709446

36965887741810890741710184739

40737407679714907590310646311

44422956601000922100012494000

4843947

5279519

5692353

6085572

6464750

Historical

Low

Medium

High

Year

p2k0data

CountryVariableYearLowMediumHigh

0300000

1700680000

1800980000

19001650000

WorldPopulation (thousands)19502519470






















Source (1950 to 2050): Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 06 Ju

Source (1700-1900): Ronald Lee, The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Volume 17, Number 4Fall 2003Pages 167190.

Source: Population Reference Bureau: "World population expanded to about 300 million by A.D. 1 and continued to grow at a moderate rate. But after the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, living standards rose and widespread famines an

17389.4

20.1272039288

p2k0data

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0

0

0

0

0

Historical

Low

Medium

High

Year

$1 trillion in 1900$10 trillion in 1967$70 trillion in 2008World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars) Source: CIA World Fact BookWere generating great wealth but paying a great price Great wealth without FCC Full Cost Accounting

Chart2

19.92

20.86

23.44

25.53

31.68

35.31

39.6

37.44

35.58

32.09

40.5

44.92

58.67

77.01

81.74

99.8

128.51

175.24

359.9

568.08

1102.96

1733.67

2102.88

2253.81

3001.36

4081.81

5430.44

6855.25

9126.98

12137.94

15149.42

18818.46

22481.11

27539.57

33644.33

43801

51816

Year

Sheet1

Total World Real GDP

(Billions of 1990 International Dollars)

Source: Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C. - Present; J. Bradford DeLong; http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

YearPreferredEx-NordhausConstant Pre-1500 GDP per Capita

-10000000.010.040.01

-3000000.090.340.11

-250000.311.150.38

-100000.371.380.46

-80000.431.610.52

-50000.511.910.57

-40000.772.840.8

-30001.595.891.6

-20003.0211.23.09

-16004.3616.164.12

-10006.3523.555.73

-8009.7236.057.79

-50013.7250.911.46

-40016.0259.4414.09

-2001763.0517.19

118.568.6519.48

1417.564.9119.59

20018.5468.821.77

35017.9366.5321.77

40018.4468.421.77

50019.9273.922.34

60020.8677.3922.92

70023.4486.9724.06

80025.5394.725.21

90031.68117.5227.73

100035.3113130.36

110039.6146.9136.67

120037.44138.941.25

125035.58132.0141.25

130032.09119.0641.25

134040.5150.2742.39

140044.92166.6440.1

150058.67217.6448.7

160077.01285.776.41

165081.74303.2484.53

170099.8370.26104.67

1750128.51476.75136.67

1800175.24650.11189

1850359.9945.6359.9

1875568.081256.1568.08

19001102.962052.381102.96

19201733.672810.151733.67

19252102.883293.032102.88

19302253.813409.692253.81

19403001.364237.93001.36

19504081.815379.214081.81

19555430.446913.85430.44

19606855.258431.846855.25

19659126.9810845.349126.98

197012137.9413934.0612137.94

197515149.4216801.415149.42

198018818.4620162.7818818.46

198522481.1123270.2522481.11

199027539.5727539.5727539.57

199533644.3332503.433644.33

20004380138281.9741016.69

200351816

(Note: IMF stats indicate 2000 GDP is 43801 at PPP rate so last cell updated from original value of 41016 to corrected value)

Sheet1

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0

0

0

0

0

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Sheet2

Sheet3

Trends

TimeWhat is increasing, becoming more abundant?What is decreasing, becoming more scarce?

The Next Generation ChallengeProvide adequately for 50% more people:using less waterusing less landusing fewer ocean food resourcesleaving a smaller, less toxic waste streamwhiletripling the global energy (carbon free)addressing new issues as they emergedeveloping employable skill sets

The Evolving Concept of Sustainable Developmentenvironmenteconomicsocial/culture Sustainable Development

Plus concepts of:Intergenerational responsibilityNeed verses greed /equitySocial justice, etcEnough, For All, Forever

Many Initiatives Necessary for SDGood legislation/governanceEconomic incentivesOvercoming corruption Environmental protectionHuman rights/securityInfrastructure (roads to banking) 40 issues identified in Agenda 21Education, Public Awareness and Training is key Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)

ESDESD is the contribution that the worlds education, public awareness/understanding, and training systems can make to create a more sustainable future.

UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005 to 2014)UN General Council Resolution Dec. 2002UNESCO is the lead UN AgencyMainly a coordinating role Integrate with other Decades and programsMainly up to each country / state / institution /.Much good news/progress

The 4 Major Thrusts of ESD

1Public awareness and understanding2Access to quality basic education3Reorienting existing education4Training programs for all sectors

Agenda 21 -92, UNESCO-96, UNCSD -98, JPOI-2002

Roles of Education for Sustainable Development1 Raising the Level of Public Awareness/UnderstandingBuild public understandingInformed citizenry political support& preparation for democratic changeWise consumersRaising the level of the discussionChanging lifestyle where possible

Public Awareness: e.g. Climate Change

Non-Formal Ed and ESDGovernment AgenciesNGOsFaith-based institutionsZoos, Botanical GardensCorporate trainers

Organizations with a message to tellDeal largely with PA and training

Contribution of Higher Ed and CCsNeed to understand the impactHistorical perspectiveFutures perspectiveDevelop the skills to manage SDAssist society to cope with SD(i.e. research, measuring, training etc.)

Roles of Education for Sustainable Development2-Access/Retention in Quality Ed.What is quality education?

Is access really enough or do we strive for retention and successful lifelong learning?

Access and Retention Issues

90 million children ages 6 to 11 never attend school in the developing countries90% of school aged are in developing/emerging nationsMillions more are under- educated in both the South and the North

Northern Problem As Well

Hard to serve students sufferPreferred learning style other than readingPoverty related issuesIrrelevant curriculaHome/family related issuesStudent/school conflict

Facilitating Adaptation Through Higher Education

Accessing higher educationKnowledge-based societyLife-long learningTechnology transferCapacity buildingProvide pre-service and in-service assistance relating to both civil society and industry needsQuestioning basic metaphors

3rd Role: Reorienting Existing Education

Most Educated nations = deepest ecological footprint

We launch the Handprint, as a tool to indicate to ourselves the ESD actions we take. It is a tool that measures action at the individual, community, national and global level. www.handsforchange.org

Reorienting Existing EducationMeans Addressing:BuildingsCurriculumPractices and actionsWhat we value What we evaluateModeling sustainability

Higher EdMany Roles for Higher Ed1% - 90%Better metrics/ researchNeed to see the bigger pictureSharing of dataEcologically oriented fiscal reformDevelop and use regulatory toolsLink the disciplines (environment and health)

The 4th Role of ESD - Training Training in sustainable development- (public and private sectors alike)HE and especially teacher education Capacity building agriculture etc.Technology transfer between nationsImplementing innovative practices

Source: Hart, S. and Milstein, M. 2003. Creating Sustainable Value TomorrowTodayExternalInternalGrowth Path & TrajectoryInnovation &RepositioningCost & RiskReductionReputation & LegitimacyEMSGreeningPollution Prevention (P2)Eco-EfficiencyRisk ManagementEnvironmental ManagementISO 14001Waste ReductionResource Productivity

Sustainable DevelopmentBase of the PyramidUrban ReinvestmentBrownfield RedevelopmentInclusive CapitalismCommunity CapitalismCivic EntrepreneurshipRadical TransactivenessB24BCorporate Social ResponsibilityIndustrial EcologyStakeholder ManagementLife-Cycle ManagementDesign for Environment (DfE)Green DesignCorporate CitizenshipFull Cost AccountingTake-backTransparencyCorporate GovernanceClean TechnologyEco-EffectivenessBiomimicryLeapfrog TechnologySustainable TechnologyKnowledge & Service IntensityCradle to CradleClosed LoopsRestorative TechnologySystems Thinking

Strengths Model: a starting point

No single discipline/group/teacher/employee can do it all

Every discipline/group/teacher/employee can contribute something

Some individuals or sectors can take lead roles in directing/managing the reorientation

Leadership and coordination of these strengths are key as we learn our way forward

Traditional Ecological Knowledge

Systemic Issues and Challenges to Moving ESD ForwardLackingvision and awarenesspolicy or mandatesocietys expectationfunding and resourcestraining programscrowded curriculumresearch base

New Learning Perspectives

Traditional Learning as acquisition modelKnowledge, solutions, true/false right/wrong

Plus Learning as participation modelcomplexity, reflexive, reflection, negotiation

And Learning as a response model" ambiguity in world, taking charge-life, tolerance, engagement

WICKEDNESSU N C E R T A I N T YlowhighhightraditionalTraditional PlusPOSTTraditional

UNU Regional Centre of ESD ExpertiseOutcomesImproved academic outcomesMore knowledgeable/supportive citizenryMore sustainably oriented production and consumptionPerhaps a shift in behaviour as learning is relevant and in scale etc.Process is crucial

InformationSourcesRegional/National Local GovernmentPrivate SectorResearch (HE, NGO) etc.

Bonn Declaration: Mid point of UNDESDWhat needs to be done?

What has been accomplished?What is the vision?

Bringing Bonn to the worldWhat are the opportunities ?What are the obligations ?

A Question for All SocietiesWhat should our citizens:know, be able to do, and value,throughout their lives?

Implications for life-long learning and training needs ofsociety are the responsibility of the current society

The Generational ChallengeProviding adequately for 50% more people:using less waterusing less landusing fewer ocean food resourcesLeaving fewer ecological footprintswhiletripling global energy supply (carbon free)addressing new issues as they emergeDeveloping employable skill sets

The MA focused on population growth in last 50 years. From MA Synthesis: Between 1960 and 2000, the demand for ecosystem servicesgrew significantly as world population doubled to 6 billion people ... This figure (not from the MA) illustrates that recent growth but in the context of the longer term trends. Sources are listed below. 1 billion in about 1804, 2 billion in 1927 (123 years to double), 4 billion in 1974 (54 yrs to double); 6.5 billion in July 2005. In the last 45 years (since 1960) more people have been added to the planet (3.4 billion) than lived on the planet in 1960.

Source (1950 to 2050): Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 06 July 2005; 1:30:16 PM.Source (1700-1900): Ronald Lee, The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Volume 17, Number 4Fall 2003Pages 167190.Source (pre 1700): Population Reference Bureau: "World population expanded to about 300 million by A.D. 1 and continued to grow at a moderate rate. But after the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, living standards rose and widespread famines and epidemics diminished in some regions. Population growth accelerated. The population climbed to about 760 million in 1750 and reached 1 billion around 1800"

Global economic activity increased nearly seven-fold between 1950 and 2000. Gross World Product expected to increase 3-6 fold between 2000 and 2050 in MA scenarios. The figure shown here is not in the MA but the data for the period 1960 to 2005 are consistent with the MA findings. Source for data used to plot the figure:

Source: Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C. - Present; J. Bradford DeLong; http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

esd and creating a sustainable future implications and opportunities: the bonn declaration 2009

Documents

world population prospects

world gdp

world urbanization prospects

world real gdpbillions

cia world fact bookwere

great price great wealth

dollars source

bradford delong http