escape from mediocrity
TRANSCRIPT
AnEscapeFrom
Mediocrity
86% Over budg
et
Consequences of Delayed, Over Budget Projects
Don’t Stress
Us Out!
Top 5 in 5To achieve excellence in execution, deliver a consistent product to our
clients which complies with our contractual obligations, and seeks to exceed expectations while achieving
planned financial results"
Build abetterproduct
High Quality
Planning1
Time Spent Planning
Reality16 months
Forecast12
months
Planning1 month
Vision
Schedule
Reschedule
Float
Optimism bias
Black Swan
Communication
2
Honesty & Transparency
Strategic Misrepresentation
Anchoring
effect
Getting Answers
(Not just the ones you want!)
Discipline3
“A 'No‘ uttered from the deepest
conviction is better than a 'Yes' merely
uttered to please, or worse, to
avoid trouble.”
1/2 wayFEED of Refinery
Simulation:(4 more cases)
PFD’s
H&MB
Detailed Lv Calcs
P&ID’s
Add distribution
ENDFEED of Refinery
Simulation:(4 more cases)
PFD’s
H&MB
Detailed Lv Calcs
P&ID’s
Add distribution
Technology study
Feedstock change
Project PlanFEED of Refinery
Simulation
PFD’s
H&MB
FEED Lv Calcs
P&ID’s
Scope Creep
Bikeshedding
Photo References
Brown Cow http://ponyridingby.blogspot.ca/2011_11_01_archive.htmlTigers in water http://www.ck12.org/user%3AeWVvbWFubWlrZUBzYXlkZWwubmV0/book/Saydel-Biology-Flexbook/r13/section/22.0/Mammals-and-Animal-Behavior-%253A%253Aof%253A%253A-Saydel-Biology-Flexbook/ Gandhi http://www.wallpaperswala.com/mahatma-gandhi/Dog with burger http://myfangalicious.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/img_87372.jpgOil refiner http://tropicaldaily.com/nicaragua/mega-oil-refinery-project-brings-both-hope-and-concern-to-nicaragua/Glass half full http://hd.wallpaperswide.com/thumbs/glass_of_water_half_full-t2.jpgButterfly http://www.turtok.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/10/Glass_wing_or_clear_wing_butterfly_Wallpaper_h6675.jpgLying http://www.ionpsych.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/lying-main_full1.jpgShed http://www.junglecatmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/shed0039.jpgCoughing http://img4-2.realsimple.timeinc.net/images/stock-images/man-coughing_300.jpg
Literary references
Bent Flyvbjerg et al. (2002). Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects, APA Journal, vol.68, No. 3, Pg. 279.Steen Linchtenberg et al. (2005). How to avoid overruns and delays successfully, Proposed ICEC Journal.Nassim Nicholas Taleb. (2007). Black Swan. Random House.Daniel Kahneman. (2011). Thinking Fast & Slow. Farrar, Straus & Giroux.